As a kid, with a firm 9 PM bedtime, one of the last shows I could grab before hitting the sack each night was a cop show … maybe showing my age, remember was a kid … Hill Street Blues, each show started out with the chief giving a summary of the day and passed events ….. and his words every show as he released his men to the streets were …
“Let’s be careful out there!”
Reviewing Anatomy of a Slowdown again
Being creatures of habit … recency bias seeps into so much of our thinking … 2020 was just barely a double digit day retreat and Capital Markets of 2018 just barely a double digit month retreat.
Many may have forgotten what a normal slowdown looks like.
Not trying to beat us over the head or a dead horse, however that goes …. More normal economic slowdown‘s as mentioned here and here just to name a few mentions (ok dead horse again) take somewhere between nine month and eighteen months a.k.a. 2007 – 2009 financial and 2000 dot com bust followed by a slow down, rather than just the most recent quarters we’ve experienced.
Big bounces are part of a slowdown… much bigger bounces than normal growth appreciations during Growth/Bull times …
Yep… 19.37% and 22.93% bounces….
A slow down, the R word – (Recession), or a growth absence, patience is a virtue …
In true let’s be careful out there fashion, we haven’t forgotten the umbrella and maybe it will not rain, but we definitely have the umbrella just in case….
Bottom line, stay away from extreme headlines of “It’s all clear” and the other “It’s all doom and gloom”, we will get through this, but let’s be careful out there and have our patience hats on too!
Have a Great “Anatomy of a Slowdown Refresher” Day!
Be Careful out there too!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Ben Hunt and Narratives … Shortened Article from just completed Newsletter
This is the time of the calendar that makes for A LOT of content in writing form…. thank goodness no writers block (For the record it has occurred)
The complete article is on the way to the printer, but came out so good … thought we would preview it here in shortened form!
Ben Hunt on Narratives
Ben theorizes that words are used to shape our behavior and as such he and Rusty, his business partner have a goal to identify when such events are occurring.
This is NOT a Fact Check, and not meaning that you as the reader will disagree or agree with them, only alerting to the fact that there may be some persuasion occurring in the narrative
The Missionary Statement or Strong Direct Narrative
Ben and his partner theorized that Missionary statements once saved for Oval Office wartime speeches or the like are now used in part due to the way we consume our information by almost everyone, leading to an overload possibly of missionary or breaking news like headlines and narratives.
The possible effect of strong missionary statements or narratives, again Ben theorizes is that when there is the need for a very strong subject matter or narrative, if we are not careful we have become desensitized to things because of the possible dramatization of other headlines and narratives that it’s not taken serious.
Comments from the Grant Williams Podcast
In the Podcast Grant mentions something Ben brought to his attention that he uses to decipher his in take of information.
“Why am I reading this, and why am I reading it now?”
The gist of this is to be curious, or maybe slightly skeptical, but not pessimistic or negative, just having front of consciousness thought that maybe there is a slant or a narrative here that’s trying to persuade.
With Headlines being dramatic and very Negative during slowdowns, most notably very near the end of the slowdown…. a timely review!
Have a Great “Watch the Narrative Headlines” Day! Watch for the Newsletter Video for an Audio/Video/Podcast review of the article if you find it interesting!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
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Posted in General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments
Tagged Ben Hunt, Headlines, Narratives, Recession, Slowdown