Tag Archives: Slowdown

April 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our April 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

April 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Back to Basics Series – Educational Funding

In our continued fun “Back To Basics” Series here we discuss Educational Funding…

Here is one very important item to remember from the post:

Did you notice we put Retirement Planning BEFORE Education planning? Do you recall in Part 3 in Debt Planning we said one of the few good debts are educational related debts ….We of course are not advocating Student debt/loans… but they are available in abundance and again not a bad debt. There are not retirement planning loans…. just saying!

Proxy Vote Reminder

In this post we remind you to please reach out if you have fallen off the list for us to proxy vote for you!

If you are getting those pesky Proxy Notices (some can be small books- oh the trees that are destroyed- digressing) reach out to us, we not only vote the Proxies for you, but we get one single notice for everyone, and Jen has done an excellent job in getting a great deal of those electronically…. Did we say how Green this is?

Capital Market Comments

The Slowdown is Here

We first started speaking of the slowdown in our Q 1 2022 Newsletter here in our “Anatomy of a Slowdown” main aricle actually released in December of 2021….

And then again, here in our Q 2 2022 Newsletter ….

Then again here, here, here, here, and again here.… among a few other times…

Last week the BEA “Officially Released” a negative GDP print as noted here in our post and in this chart….

Never get the timing exactly, but we are not surprised and have been waiving the flag here in our talks and are prepared!

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of May!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

March 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our March 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

March 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Homestead Reminder – New Primary Residence in 2021

In our “Reminder to Homestead” Post found here, we discuss/remind anyone who has established a new primary residence in 2021 to check out the Homesteading laws of your state.

Using our home state of Texas as an example, there are ample tax savings and no downside to homesteading your home!

Annual Credit Score Reminder

In this annual reminder post, we direct everyone their free annual credit report, with instructions on how to review your report and why it is a good idea to check that credit…….

From the post….

Why Do I need to Know or protect my score?

While you may not owe anyone, anything i.e. have a loan with anyone … well done by the way….. A bad credit score can still affect items such as your automobile and your homeowners premiums… no kidding (see this  Forbes article.) We cannot blame them, there is data to check and it is their responsibility and ability to review it.

Bottom line a bad credit score or report may be costing you more money.

Capital Market Comments

CPI – Consumer Price Index Further Analysis

More hard comparables come in the form of inflated CPI numbers from last year..

In this post we discuss the large stimulus infusion this time last year and why it will be a giant headwind to further CPI increases….

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of April! Still Going fast this year!!!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Q2 2022 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Video Audio Podcast Review ! By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q2 2022 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

BREAK IN – We are trying a new format of articles that are shorter, and hit a very wide variety of topics that should interest all ages and chapters…. Let us know what you think?

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

Q 2 2022 Newsletter

(YouTube)

All about the Stimulus Base Effects and the Coming Comparable (Hurdles)

In our main article, a somewhat follow up article to our Q 1 2022 Newsletter Main Article “Anatomy of a Slowdown” we review the base effects we as an economy are about to have to hurdle.

Sale of many companies exploded higher, similar to the one below, but now must be digested..

Look Back Tax Savings – Spousal IRA – SEP – HSA  , These can be done before your filing due date of April 18 to Possible Lower Your 2021 Taxes 

With tax season officially underway, actually nearing an end, the official filing date for non-extension regular Form 1040 Filers is April 18th, 2022 (this year) for year 2021 tax filings, just a few weeks out. There are a few tax saving ideas that even with the turn of the calendar can be implemented to possibly help last year’s income taxes. 

Self Employed Pension plan-the SEP as it’s commonly called is a great vehicle to offset income that is not of the W2 type, think consulting income.

The Spousal “Qualified IRA” is another handy tool to use if one of the spouses does not have any form of a retirement plan.

The HSA. One of the great parts of the HSA is you only need a high-deductible health insurance plan

Estate and Gift Planning Update – Annual Gifting Amount – Estate Tax Update 

Annual Gift amount upped to $16k per person

Estate Tax Stands at $12.06 million per person or $22.12 million per couple

“Last year certainly garnered many headlines of possible changes in much of the estate tax laws. In all fairness we fielded many questions and thankfully once again stuck to our mantra of until it is law, one should be very careful at making preemptive adjustments. There certainly can be changes in the future, but again short of knee jerk reactions, we tend to like for law mandates to be made for reaction, rather than rumors. “

Financial Planning/Retirement Planning Trick for those Early in the Workforce – Roth contribution for young working

Helping a new worker contribute to a Roth and an early age to jumpstart a retirement program…

From the Article…

“Most likely if a young worker is making a very nominal amount, and possibly still living at home, they will not have the cash flow to contribute to any type of retirement plan. But if someway somehow they can make a Roth contribution at least up to their earnings at a very young age the long term positive consequences of this can obviously be fantastic.”

“If a 17 year old was somehow able to get $6000 in a Roth (one time!) and earn 8% a year at age 66 he/she would have about $191,000. If that same 17 year old were somehow able to get $6000 a year until he or she was 23, (five years), and had the same 8% compounding until he or she was 66 there would be a nest egg of just under $1,000,000. That $1,000,000 would not be subject under current tax laws, to mandatory required minimum distributions (RMS;s) nor again under current tax laws would it be taxable income upon distribution.”

We hope you enjoy … talk to you in the summer!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

February 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our February 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

February 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Third In Back to Basics Series – “Debt Planning”

The third post of a neat (well we think so) new idea, series we discuss “Protection Planning” !

This series is a review of the basics, and will serve as somewhat of a semester study of the Financial Planning foundations all the way to more advanced topics later in the series…. We plan on a mid month release of each part and somewhere south of double digit parts…. possibly with a video added to each for additional insights…. thanks in advance for sharing with those who may find this series helpful….

In this Debt Planning section we cover from a high level …

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Forms of Debt

Yes there are some debts that or ok, but there are also some that are very much sinners….

Review that Social Security Statement

In this annual reminder post, receiving a weekend email alert directly form the Social Security Administration our review was set in motion and a new post was born….

Happily as mentioned in the post, the SSA had updated the site and there are really neat new features such as a graph for delayed benefits and a neat spousal calculator.. Well done guys!

Please be sure to take 5 minutes and review that your hard earned earnings are being credited to your Social Security Benefit/Number!

Capital Market Comments

Interest Rates Jump Ahead of Fed – Short Term Pressure on Bonds Long Term Gain

While this post concerning how the bond markets, more specifically the two year and ten year treasuries front run the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) we also want to remind that such movement, especially seen in the two year treasury puts pressure (lowers) on the value of the bond but also ups the income from the bond……

So initial headwind, and eventual tail wind…yay

Re-Review “The Anatomy of a Slowdown/Recession” the Snap Back

With market jitters creating headlines and lower values, in this post we reviewed our luckily timed lead article in our Q 1 2022 Newsletter article, called the “Anatomy of a Slowdown”

The main purpose of the article and the re-run is to remind everyone INCLUDING OURSELVES, slowdowns (markets dropping in value) do occur, and while we don’t want them to, they do anyway!

In this post, we review three very large what we coined snap backs…. large rallies of 5%-to over 10% which are for some reason very confusing during slow down times and also tend to totally ignore headlines…

No idea for sure WHY they happen, just know they do … thought worth reminding as some great questions came in on the subject.

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of March! Going fast this year!!!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Capital Market Thoughts – Anatomy of a Slowdown Continued – Snap Back Rallies During a Slowing –

With several excellent puzzled questions on the recent market movements last week and the final capture on similar questions of two buddies in my steps from the house Starbucks on Saturday early am … a post was in the works…

This post is an add on to our “Anatomy of a Slowdown” which we spoke about here in our Newsletter’s lead article and again here in our late January post …. but again with multiple excellent questions last week, we thought the additional comments timely…

Weird Snap Backs During a Slow Down

While no one knows for sure, but in if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck it may be a duck form … for some reason snapback rallies of dramatic proportions are common during market attempts to gauge a slowdown.

Using our most recent dramatic slowdown as an example and please remember that was a very short and brief slowdown compared to the afore mentioned Anatomy articles…. the first snapback was 4.87% then the next at 5.87% and finally a 10.13% snapback…. yep over 10% …. see chart below – know it is busy but wanted to get all three big snapbacks measured…

For whatever reason … these occur frequently during slowdown periods and rarely of that magnitude during normal growth times.

These snapback rallies can ignore things like the worst unemployment report ever recorded (chart above) or even as of last week an invasion of a neighboring country…

Lot’s of theories, maybe some are correct, but in duck like fashion it just seems to happen…

Bottom line, using history as an example, the slowing probing and snapback moves are likely not over…

Stay cool, stay calm and ignore the dramatic headlines!

Have a Great “Snapback Analysis” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

January 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our January 2022 … the First Month Review of 2022 – YAY … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

January 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Second In Back to Basics Series – “Protection Planning”

The second post of a neat (well we think so) new idea, series we discuss “Protection Planning” !

This series is a review of the basics, and will serve as somewhat of a semester study of the Financial Planning foundations all the way to more advanced topics later in the series…. We plan on a mid month release of each part and somewhere south of double digit parts…. possibly with a video added to each for additional insights…. thanks in advance for sharing with those who may find this series helpful….

In this Protection Planning section we cover from a high level … Health, Auto/Home/Umbrella and Life Insurance basics and best ways to implement !

New Uniform Table Gives RMD Break – We are all Younger!

In this post we highlight as the calendar turned, we are all viewed as younger (actually the tables have us living longer- semantics)…

A very important result of this change is to give those mandated by RMD’s (Required Minimum Distributions) relief…. since the tables in effect make us younger/living longer, less money is demanded out (Uncle Sam wants his taxes) thereby lowering taxable income!

Capital Market Comments

Re-Review “The Anatomy of a Slowdown/Recession”

With market jitters creating headlines and lower values, in this post we reviewed our luckily timed lead article in our Q 1 2022 Newsletter article, called the “Anatomy of a Slowdown”

The main purpose of the article and the re-run is to remind everyone INCLUDING OURSELVES, slowdowns (markets dropping in value) do occur, and while we don’t want them to, they do anyway!

In this post, we review the following chart and outline the normal 9-12 month slowdown time line… very much unlike the last three we have experienced…

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of February!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Capital Market Thoughts … Reminder from Lead Newsletter Article of Q1 2022 … “Anatomy of a Slowdown”

With the gyrations of the Capital Markets as of late making headlines, we wanted to re-review our review (purposely a lot of reviewing…haha… ok digressing) of our lead article in our most recent Newsletter (Q1 2022) The Anatomy of a slowdown!

Here is a link to the Newsletter and my video explaining the lead article at the very beginning of the Video!

Anatomy of a Slowdown – Re Review

After large infusions of stimulus during the virus and associated lock downs, it should not come as a surprise that there would be a slowdown both economically and on an individual spending level as the stimulus subsided….

Capital Markets have sniffed this out and are trying to figure out the next speed of economic growth…

While Capital Markets and participants do their thing …. we wanted to remind ourselves and readers of a few facts from the Newsletter:

Those 10 years or more from retirement, should embrace the eventual slowdown and market reactions. This is the time you really get to make great purchases and shine in the future, but it may not feel like it at the time, Enjoy and Embrace! 

Those in the 10-5 year range from retirement, recall we adjust our risk level down as we get closer to retirement. Yes, that means taxes and a slower ride, but a lot less bumpy and less stress. 

Those 5 years out or already retired, as a slowdown occurs, and values drop, our most important item is to rebalance from the safe things that have held up in value, to the more risky items that have dropped in value (agnostic sell high and buy low), and of course remind ourselves we came into this with a good allocation for each and every one of us and can easily navigate this. 

The most important items we want to convey are that near the very end of a recession/slowdown, the headlines are the worst, but the rewards are the greatest. 

The average length of a recession is about 9-12 months, much longer than the most recent 2020 recession (-36%), and the Interest Rate Temper Tantrum slowdown of late 2018 (-19.9%) or the low Volatility (VIX) shake out of early 2018 (-12%) all shown here in the chart below! 

Final Thoughts to Remember:

  1. Investing is risky, and one will almost certainly have a drop in value during a slowdown/recession  
  1. Invest rationally when the sun is shining AKA Don’t get over your ski’s by keeping your allocations (safe/risky, Fixed income/Equity) correct during good times, thereby making it through the inevitable bad times  
  1. Reallocation from winning to losing areas is the most important item to capture the best part of a slowdown/recession, the eventual recovery 
  1. Ignore the headlines and remember they will likely be the worst near the end *Purposely Bolded for extra reminder! 
  1. Avoid false prophets, there will always be someone who has made a negative correct call, but most of the time that is not that someone’s first call, and they likely will overstay their welcome, once again missing the best part of the slowdown/recession, the recovery 
  1. Stay positive, and know our job is to help talk and guide you through these situations, just like we are now, by reminding and reviewing during sun shining times 

Have a Great “Re-review of Anatomy of a Recession” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Q1 2022 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Video Audio Podcast Review ! By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q1 2022 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

Q 1 2022 Newsletter

(YouTube)

Anatomy of a Slowdown/Recession

In our main article, we review the last three drawdowns/slowdowns/recession for examples of how fast they occurred and the extremely fast recovery as can be seen by the main graph below.

We are not calling for a major slowdown/recession or the like, but we wanted to remind ourselves as well as everyone else, the last three drawdowns were not normal.

Longer drawdowns are the norm, and in the Newsletter Article we also go deeper into the Great Financial Crisis of 07-09, which was also not normal… it was much larger and much longer than the normal.

The past decade and a half have had it’s scary moments, but they did not last very long and were quickly attacked by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to give support in the system, fortunately very successfully. This may not always be the case, hence a reminder of the Umbrella use during sun shining times!

New Retirement Contribution Maximums, Best Practice, Tips and Tricks

The new retirement maximums are out at the IRS Website .

Again in our Newsletter article we remind those of smooth contributions throughout the year, UNLESS you have knowledge that may have you severed from your 401k some time during the year, in which a neat trick is to accelerate you contribution level in order to max that 401k out before you leave!

IRAs2022202120202019
401(k), 403(b), Profit-Sharing Plans, etc.2022202120202019
Annual Compensation305,000290,000285,000280,000
Elective Deferrals20,50019,50019,50019,000
Catch-up Contributions6,5006,5006,5006,000
Defined Contribution Limits61,00058,00057,00056,000
IRA Contribution Limit$6,000$6,000$6,000$6,000
IRA Catch-Up Contributions1,0001,0001,0001,000
Traditional IRA AGI Deduction Phase-out Starting at2022202120202019
Joint Return109,000105,000104,000103,000
Single or Head of Household68,00066,00065,00064,000
SEP2022202120202019
SEP Minimum Compensation650650600600
SEP Maximum Contribution61,00058,00057,00056,000
SEP Maximum Compensation305,000290,000285,000280,00

We hope you enjoy … talk to you in 2022!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com