Tag Archives: SPY

February 2020 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our February 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Break In – Cool New Feature – In the past we have done our videos on YouTube and this video will also be on our Channel there, however, we have added new features to our site here, that allows us to embed the video here, AND you will not get hit with tons of advertising after the video…. hope you enjoy!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

February – 2020 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

All About the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund)

In an abbreviated three part series, a preview to our extended Q2 Newsletter Article, we discuss the origination of the very first Index ETF called SPY nick named the Spider and then the proliferation, and finally in part 3 of our series the dangers of non liquid ETF’s during stress,… never knowing stressful times were just around the corner.

Here are links to each post:

Capital Market Comments

This is a year to date graph of the S&P 500, Dow Jones and the Russell 2000 (Small Companies) indexes.

A silly but true Wall Street Saying comes to mind…

“Markets Go Up on an Escalator and Down on the Elevator!”

We left a different chart off because it looks more dramatic and there is enough drama around the Virus and Market Reactions.

Couple of Interesting Statistics for you to keep the perspective

  • So far this season, 60 Million people in the US have contracted the flu (CDC)
  • So far this season, 14 thousand people in the US have died from the flu (CDC)
  • There are 22 – yes TWENTY TWO confirmed cases of Corona Virus infections at this time
  • One death from the Corona Virus
  • Capital Markets are where they were just 4 months ago – We got back there fast… see saying above

3-1-20 YTD Index Returns

Possible Chance – All time 10 Year Treasury Low

The chart below is of the 10 year treasury yield, which loosely correlates to Mortgage rates…

This is an all time low! 

We would wait a little before actually taking action, as the swift movement down in rates is likely not reflected yet- but get ready….

Touch base with your Mortgage Professional or us –

Consider Lowering and Locking any fixed rate mortgages or loans!

Here is a Detailed Article on our Thoughts

3-1-20 Treasury 10 year all time low

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of March!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

All About the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) The Dangers (Part 3)

Earlier here in the first part of our ETF Post from our coming Q2 Newsletter, we spoke of the creation and massive growth.

In the Second Part here of our ETF Post we showed the large number of different asset classes the ETF’s are now available …. and growing fast….

Here is a reminder, of just how many Assets ETF’s now encompass..

etf-universe-aum-large

The NAV or Net Asset Value – Discount, Premium and Mismatch

NAV Or Net Asset Value is the true value of the underlying assets… recall the ETF is a basket of assets, originally the first, SPY or “Spider” the S and P 500 Stocks (US large company stocks)….

The SPY is easily tracked, rarely deviates from the underlying value (NAV) and trades very liquid (constantly).

Far away from core indexes, there are now ETF’s that currently trade instantly but have holdings that in some cases may take days, weeks, or even months to liquidate the underlying asset.

Logically… A mismatch of this magnitude can lead to a miss pricing of the asset, especially during stress.

Examples include, floating rate funds, high yielding (low quality) or synthetic types of ETF’s.

As a best practice, staying away from unique and small ETF’s is a good idea.

Have a Great “Which ETF’s to Avoid” Day!

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

All About the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) The Proliferation (Part 2)

Earlier here in the first part of our ETF Post from our coming Q2 Newsletter, we spoke of the creation and massive growth.

The original Index ETF, was called by its ticker, SPY AKA Spider!

If They Buy, Wall Street Will Build – Beginnings of a Problem

Wall Street is just like many other businesses, in that if someone will buy it, they will build it. Recall the rush to bring “.com” companies public in the late 90’s, due to the insatiable appetite by investors, who were also experiencing the newly minted power of the internet itsself.

The following, again from IShares and Visual Capitalist shows the proliferation of various types of ETF’s.

etf-universe-aum-large

Dangers in the Making

Once a single Index ETF, now a plethora of over 6000 and counting different ETF assets.  Given the fact that investors do not need duplicate index ETF’s, many new ETF’s do not track anything, and can even get into the woods in uncharted, unique and illiquid types of assets.

US Exchanges are currently logging a shrinking number of public companies due to cost, liability, red tape, and mega mergers.

There are only about 5000 US Traded companies on the exchanges, with a much larger, but very small capitalization of international companies. With this in mind, there must be tons of overlapping ETF holdings.

There are also fledgling ETF’s that will likely never gain traction.

Next Up, The Dangers and What To Avoid…

Have a Great “Proliferation of ETF’s” Day!

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

All About the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund), The Creation and Growth (Part 1)

(Those on the edge of your seats… this post accidentally set for 10:30 PM… such the delayed email today… carry on)

Working on the Q2 Newsletter and with a fabulous article about ETF’s (Exchange Traded Fund) in the making, as promised from last week, wanted to share in short version, here in this format, in advance….

ETF Index SPY is Born

This first Index ETF, traded (s) on the exchanges as SPY can be purchased just like a stock, during market hours and even after market hours in the much less stable and liquid extended market hours. Today just like when it was established, trades at 1/100 of the actual index value.  I.e. Index 3300, SPY 330.

This Index ETF allowed investors the ability to purchase one asset, under the ticker SPY, just like an individual stock, but hold 500 stocks, in this case the Standard and Poor’s 500, generally known as the largest US public companies in the world all at once and have throughout the day ability to buy or sell.

Prior to the SPY, there were certainly Mutual Funds (and still are today) that represent the same index, but were only tradable at the end of each day, also called end of day settlement.

In an ever faster moving world, the ETF has gaining appeal and continued money flows through low cost purchase.

Time Flies When We Are Having Fun – National Quote 1.5 Decade Ago Still Pertinent

Oddly, the following quote in 2006, actually still hits to the heart of an important topic of this article today…

Managers Look Ahead To Era Of Rate Declines

BY MURRAY COLEMAN

INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY

Posted 10/6/2006

“The interim period while we’re not raising or lowering rates is a time to build ETF watch lists,” said John Kvale, a Dallas- based adviser. “If it’s a soft landing for the economy, then our belief is that we’ll gravitate much more toward higher-quality stock funds.” He’s moving clients away from small-cap ETFs. The funds he favors now include S&P 500 tracker SPDRs. (SPY) “We’re holding off right now on investing in more sector-specific ETFs,” Kvale said.

Fast Forward to the Growth of ETF’s

From Ishares/Black Rock and Visual Capitalist

HIstory of ETF

As long as there is demand, Wall Street will Build!

Next up, beginnings of Danger!

Have a Great “ETF Creation” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

High Yields have us concerned…A Tea Leaf?

High Yield bonds also known as junk bonds are showing stress. As a reminder high yield bonds are slightly lower in quality (higher risk) for various reasons, that pay a greater yield than that of their higher rated relatives.

In our Q 1 2013 Newsletter we spoke of the risks of High Yield bonds, along with the lack of Tea Leaves in this day of outside influences.

Recently High Yield bonds have caught our attention as they are GENERALLY very highly correlated with capital markets.

The divergence in the last several weeks has caught our eye! (Far Right of chart)

High Yield Versus SPY (Click for gigantic picture)

SPY V HYG

Apologies for the choppy picture, but this charting system produced the best overlay for showing the correlation

This may be nothing, and very well could correct in short order but it is currently giving fuel to our conservative/negative market view, as such we are watching very closely.

Have a Good Day!

JK

214-706-4300
www.jkfinancialinc.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas TX 75225