Tag Archives: St Louis Fed

JOLTS – Job Opening Measurement ALL TIME Highs – Great News for Job Seekers, Tough News for Employers

Over the last two weeks during the Mauldin SIC conference (which we are still digesting), multiple speakers mentioned the Jolts Index -Job Openings Labor Turnover – A Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) that measures job openings.

Back in August of 2020, here we first took note of the movement in the Index as it made a turn at the bottom of this chart and actually surprised to the upside.

JOLTS Index Today

Fast forward to today and noting what the Mauldin speakers featured, this Index is at an ALL TIME high!

Key Takeaways

  • Tons of Jobs Available
  • Job Seekers Market
  • Tough on Employers
  • Could lead to higher wages (Inflation?)

Have a Great “JOLTS Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Fun Friday Challenge – Notice the Paper Vehicle Plates – Family High of Seven in One Four Mile Radius

We have spoken of this before, but recently on a fairly short jog of four miles, seven paper vehicle plates were spotted. Over the past few weeks the family has been counting relentlessly to see who can see the most in an outing.

Fancy locations seem to have fancy vehicle paper plates, with more normal areas having more normal vehicle paper plates, but THEY ALL seem to have tons of paper plates!

Who is buying all of these New or New to them Cars?

Buyers Versus Inventory – It Makes Sense Now

You know we could not leave this alone…just too interesting!

Inventory Down

Sales Up or at Least Rebounding FAST

Long journeys will likely lead to a much larger number than we have topped so far…

So your fun weekend challenge, see how many paper Vehicle plates you see over the next few days!

Have a Great Day, Friday and Weekend – Thanks for reading, talk next week !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Natural Rate Of Unemployment/Employment ?

Post great recession of 07-09, many including ourselves were not certain just what the rate of Employment or Unemployment the US economy would run at in the future.

  • It was different this time many said?
  • Technological advances and replacement would push many out of employment?
  • Aging demographics may push the rates to different/higher/lower levels?

With almost 10 years in the books since the great recession began, we now know just what did change? Not much!

Full Employment/Unemployment history

Taking a look at this chart from FRED a research tank at the St Louise Federal Reserve, while it took longer to get back to historical levels, it finally has.

Granted there can be debates on the scope of the current employment rate, but from a high level measure stick such as this, it looks normal.

This longer term fantastic chart from this research report of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, shows the same.

 

Why did it take so long to normalize?

One good question many have asked is why did it take so long to normalize again?

The great recession was just that, so GREAT, it really put dents in the economy making this one of the slowest recoveries on record.

The weakest recovery line (slowest and lowest in the chart) represents this recovery. (This chart from our friends at JPMorgan.)

JPMorgan GDP expansion chart

The good news about such a slow recovery is that is has also become one of the longest, due to just that fact, slow and gradual, and certainly not overheating!

Have a Great Full Employment Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

The Economic Recovery Problem in One Simple Graph

While listening to a recent Richard Fisher interview I was reminded of the main problem of this current sloooow economic recovery. The US Economy is certainly growing, bu it has not grown at its fullest potential and continues to plod along at a slow pace.

Fisher’s comments were from a worried stance. Being a Hawk (non advocate for additional help from the FOMC) his fear is once the economy gets going, it may take off too fast. Maybe he is correct, but for now, we could only be so lucky.

M2: The Velocity of Money

This from FRED (St. Louis Federal Reserve Research):

The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy.

In non-fancy terms, M2 is money in motion. The FOMC has been pushing money into the banking system for some time. Let’s see if it is helping speed up M2?

M2

To be fair, in order for M2 to accelerate, there must be demand for loans, and other money movement by the businesses and citizens of the US. So far, as you can tell, Fisher’s worries are unwarranted. A spike or even blip upward would be nice!

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

St Louis Fed (FRED) … Tax Dollars Well Used … Short Week

Last week the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis though its data service known as FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) released major updates. Being true Economic data nerds, much of the weekend was spent trolling through the enhancements and updates.

St Louis Fed, Our Tax Dollars Well Spent

Often times it is easy to throw the US’s use of tax dollars under the wasteful bus, but this cannot be said about the St. Louis Fed (FRED) expenditures. With 150,00 data series from 59 different sources, their work is superb, and best of all, free!

Here are two key data points that the FOMC is watching pulled from the new FRED site.

Civilian Unemployment Rate- FOMC GO Target 6.5%, currently 7.3%

Unempl Rate

CPI or Inflation rate- FOMC Target toward 2% currently 1.2%

CPI

Short Week Schedule

The Thanksgiving Holiday is honored on Thursday with Capital Markets being closed, and only partially open on Friday. Cathy is off on Wednesday, Donald is flying out-of-state to visit family,  and the office will be closed on Friday  … Of course I will be loosely electronically tethered just to be safe throughout the week.

Have a Great Monday!

John Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225