Tag Archives: Tariff

Sometimes Market Movements Make Sense – but not always

The Hissy fit that Capital Markets threw in late 2018 were puzzling, if not weird, at best.

Oddly, there are more times than not puzzling or strange market movement that the so called “Pundits” can reason why things occur, but really “Only the Shadow Knows!”

The recent market movement, although very small in context, makes sense.

Smart Market?

Over the weekend, it appears that talks broke down on the China trade deals, and Tariff threats have made the headlines again…

This is fast news and can change in a nano-second, so knee jerk reactions are NOT needed or worthy! 

This time, the market pause makes sense as increased concerns over the Tariff talks may cause slow downs in certain areas…

Here is a very short term chart that speaks to what makes some sense AT THE MOMENT!

5-7-19 SP 500

Will it turn into something more? Maybe, or Maybe not, but it does make some sense, IN THE VERY SHORT TERM!

Longer term, just a speed bump in the Parking Lot of Investing!

Have a Great “Sensible Market” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

March 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Break in Reminder for our Social Security Event

Saturday April 27th at 10 am and Dallas Athletic Club

 

Hello and Welcome to our March 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

Newbies – We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

March – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

IRS Dirty Dozenburglar-308858__480

Each year the IRS publishes their top dozen tax scams, here in our post we cover all dirty dozen tax scams to be aware.

Our top three are their first three-

  • Phishing
  • Phone Scams
  • Identity Theft

Which are the ones we see most frequently!

For the record, we have seen way less this year than in years past!

Choose Beneficiaries Carefully Part IIbeneficiary - 42001392872_ddd235968d_m

Here in our Part II beneficiary post, we discuss the two most common types of designations you will likely see on Beneficiary paperwork, Per Stirpes (flows to heirs, irregardless of survivors) and ProRata (funds only to survivors) and once again as a reminder that Beneficiary language will over ride Wills and other types of Estate Planning documents – choose carefully!

Capital Market Comments –

Inverted Yield CurveFOMC Lowers Rates and buys longer to lower

Here we spoke of the three hour inverted yield curve in a Break In abbreviated post. As an update, the yield curve has been inverted most of this week, making is a TRUE inversion.

We will have a detailed review soon, but again the importance of this event is the recession signaling prowess.

All recessions are not equal, and we highly suspect the next one will be a shallow one, but our radars are up.

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of March!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

February 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our February 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

Newbies – We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

February – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Job Change or Retirement Checklist

In our updated post here, we discuss a few handy items to grab and remember when you retire or change jobs.

Here are the bullets-

  • Last Pay Check
  • RSU-Options
  • Employee Stock Purchase
  • Deferred Comp
  • Pension
  • Health Coverage
  • Long Term Health Coverage
  • 401k
  • New 401k
  • Severance
  • Social Security Withholding

Institutional Trustee photo-1528752477378-485b46bedcde

This post has turned into a full article in the coming Newsletter due to the great response and continued questions and ideas that were brought up-

Possible reasons for an IRON CLAD Institutional Trustee

  • No other comfortable option – Many times a friend/family member is preferred
  • Want an iron clad back up
  • Calming possible family feuds
  • Long lasting legacy desired
  • Desired attention to details such as monthly distributions, bill payments etc.

Choose Beneficiaries Carefullybeneficiary - 42001392872_ddd235968d_m

In this post, just earlier in the week, born from an in field experience – multiple questions in the office after – and the subject making its way into the Newsletter as well… just a great additional article to the Trust!

The most important item to remember in choosing a designated beneficiary on and account is it will over-rule your Will – choose carefully and review occasionally for safety of desired outcomes.

The Brain Shines at West Coast Event

 

 

Capital Market Comments –

Good News – Recovery without a Re-test – So far

Nothing to change from the prior month!

What a different a month makes – WOW! We literally have gone from the sky is falling to sunshine!

In our summary post in December, we mentioned that fast moving slumps, such as the one we had, frequently do not last long….

Here, earlier in the month we also mentioned that we fully expected some type of retest of those lows before we gained our footing.

We still do expect some type of re-test, but as of this date we have had the following positives that have added to the markets better mood:

  1. Federal Reserve (FOMC) have turned very cautious about raising rates further (We are happily surprised at their yielding, and even more surprised at market participants joy)
  2. Tariff talks are making progress – Interestingly, China has seen a slow down in their economy making for slightly more urgent talks – with a little compromise and statesmanship a resolve looks more likely – again a positive for capital markets.
  3. Earnings are still cranking along – For the prior 4-6 quarters, earnings were red hot and hitting on all cylinders, so hot, they were not sustainable. Companies are still reporting good earnings, just not the Red Hot, overheated earnings from prior quarters – this is good news as it avails the FOMC to not have to raise rates to slow the economy –

All in all a Win- Win!

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of March!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

January 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our January 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

Newbies – We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

January – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Get and Earlier than normal start on those Taxestaxes control-1027103_1280

Here in this post, we remind everyone that due to the new tax laws, it will be a good idea to get your tax information to your professional as soon as possible.

If your using tax software, be sure to do the recommended updates as we feel certain there will be necessary updates to the tables along the way.

Corrected 1099’s are the usual, with only a few last year, we will give everyone the green light once we get our first round of corrected tax forms – but again go ahead and get started with your taxes!

Stunning Findings about your old employer 401kabonded dawn-3358468__480

We had long suspected as much, but in this post we review a Cerulli study that interviewed over 800 401k providers, only to find out that less than 30% really want your funds once you leave.

We have experienced less than stellar service over the years with former employees 401k plans – leading to our long suspicion of these findings.

Make Pension Changes/Decisions Carefullythumbs-up-2056022__480

While our favorite commencement benefit for pensions (100% jt survivor) is fairly straight forward, the simplicity ends there.

In this post, we review recent trends in buy outs and what to watch for, as well as the many scenarios we have experienced that are not always in our best interest.

Capital Market Comments –

Good News – Recovery without a Re-test – So far

What a different a month makes – WOW! We literally have gone from the sky is falling to sunshine!

In our summary post in December, we mentioned that fast moving slumps, such as the one we had, frequently do not last long….

Here, earlier in the month we also mentioned that we fully expected some type of retest of those lows before we gained our footing.

We still do expect some type of re-test, but as of this date we have had the following positives that have added to the markets better mood:

  1. Federal Reserve (FOMC) have turned very cautious about raising rates further (We are happily surprised at their yielding, and even more surprised at market participants joy)
  2. Tariff talks are making progress – Interestingly, China has seen a slow down in their economy making for slightly more urgent talks – with a little compromise and statesmanship a resolve looks more likely – again a positive for capital markets.
  3. Earnings are still cranking along – For the prior 4-6 quarters, earnings were red hot and hitting on all cylinders, so hot, they were not sustainable. Companies are still reporting good earnings, just not the Red Hot, overheated earnings from prior quarters – this is good news as it avails the FOMC to not have to raise rates to slow the economy –

All in all a Win- Win!

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of February!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Timely G-20/Tariff Meeting Chart – World GDP

It appears the Tariff talks continue to go on…

We are personally surprised as we thought much of this was posturing and there would be an agreement sooner rather than later …

This weekend at the G-20 meeting (here is a cool live China site on the matter) there is hope to finally settle the Tariff concerns…

Will see – if they do, market participants may likely sound a sigh of relief… and visa versa …

Our Friends at Visual Capitalist/How Much.com are out with a neat chart to keep the matters in perspective..

World GDP at a Glance

world-economy-gdp

Have a Great “World GDP Updated” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

Tariff Update – AKA Trade Wars in the Old Days – Sure Enough we have been here before?

Over the past 30 years, much of what we learned are what opinions to trust, which views to listen to, and more importantly, who to tune out.

Scott Grannis, former chief economist for a large financial company and currently retired with no intention of returning to work (NO BIASES!) is one of our favorite reads. Here is a very small portion, but a favorite on the Tariff wars from Scott and his Blog “Calafia Beach Pundit” – he lives in CA currently.

“In the past 12 months, the US has imported about $525 billion of Chinese goods, while at the same time exporting to China only $135 billion. China is selling almost four times more “stuff” to us than we are selling to them. So, the thinking goes, if both countries jack up tariff rates to prohibitive levels, the Chinese have much more to lose than we do, particularly since our economy is still half again as big as China’s. At some point the Chinese will wave the white flag, we’ll all agree to reduce or eliminate tariffs and intellectual property right theft, and sweetness and light will return to international trade relations.

We can’t rule out a successful end to today’s tariff wars, but neither can we be confident that they will inexorably lead to a repeat of the Smoot-Hawley tariff wars which in turn led to the Great Recession. I continue to believe that tariffs are so universally understood to be bad and even stupid that eventually our leaders will do the right thing and make trade freer and fairer. Why bet against what would be a win-win for all parties? (Zero tariffs are an economist’s dream, since by facilitating free trade they would be a boon to all countries.)”

Trade Wars History – This is not our First Time

Follow his comments up with an excellent updated chart on the subject matter from our friends at Visual Capitalist, and we will let you formulate your own opinion – an opinion that is likely more updated than before reading this post!

Have a “Tariff Trade War Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Your Guide to how much Tariff talk should Matter – World Exports in One Chart

Thanks to our friends at howmuch.net, an absolute timely chart on the total goods and services moving around the world.

We find this interesting given the rhetoric being bantered around in the headlines and giving capital markets an excuse to frown!

Take a moment to see rhetoric versus total exports/trade-

top-exporters-countries-2017-d071

Have a Great “Total Value Export Informed” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com