Tag Archives: TSA

Q 2 2021 Review – Return to Normal, Inflation Here to Stay or Transitory

Slowly Returning to Normal, or Some Similarities

With hindsight available as our measuring stick, it appears that sometime between March and April earlier this year things across the country really began to return to some type of normal.

As noted in our blog at street-cents.com and in the prior newsletter TSA throughput a measurement of airport travel looks to possibly eclipse 2019 highs later this year.

Restaurants began opening, some earlier and some much later, depending on the geographic location with patrons welcoming their reopening.

Uncertainty remains on the remote versus office environment. Most think the new normal will not be a complete office environment, but some blend of remote since it is readily acceptable and well tested.

Inflation, Here to Stay or Transitory?

As discussed in detail in our latest Q 3 2021 Newsletter, the most prevalent debate at this moment among market participants is the topic of inflation and it’s staying power, or just transitioning through. The importance of this subject is directly related to the FOMC, chaired by Jerome Powell and the timing of his reduced stimulus.  All eyes are on the inflation debate and the timing of the decrease in stimulus and will be sensitive to timing changes.

Not surprisingly economic numbers roared as they met favorable comparisons from last year, but in very recent days, have given the appearance of a return to normalcy already, decreasing concerns of longer-term inflation.

Capital Markets being forward looking are now trying to see what is around the next corner. As earnings continue to return to normal, valuations are finally beginning to be decreased from extremely stretched proportions and as long as earnings outpace returns a continuation of this should occur.

Time is really our friend, and once again the good news is, this will all play out in quarters rather than years. Things can certainly change quickly, and it is not a time to swing for the fences, which we never do!

Have a terrific summer and talk to you at the beginning of fall.

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Interesting Fleet (Boat) Monitoring Site MarineTraffic.com – The Worlds Water Transportation

We continue to find very neat websites that are great for monitoring various types of population and transit….

First it was the TSA its self….

Then a VP seeing our research showed us her company website that has fancy enhanced features at Fligence.com

Then we stumbled upon the Kastle back to work monitor

Then Indeed job openings indexes

Now another new tracker… but this time boats!

Marine Traffic – Marinetraffic.com

Last week on an Institutional Investor conference call, one of the presenters mentioned watching Marinetraffic.com

Music to our ears…. another cool way to review the Economy and world transit.

The following is from the website, but there is also a very neat downloadable cell app, that has most of the same features.

With a monthly subscription (certainly a Naval person’s must) you can slice and dice the worlds naval transit in almost any way one would want….

Without a subscription, our situation, there is still a TON of neat information— on the live site you can hover over each boat and get more information!

All Ships

Cargo Ships

Pattern is very interesting, looks like close to shore for protection?

Tankers – Oil, LNG and other similar commodity transportation

More direct and less shore line hugging- interesting – maybe they are bigger?

Fishing Boats – How neat is that!

Satellite tracks these guys …certainly in areas that would be expected- warm!

USA Coasts– Wow – Gulf of Mexico

Look for us to review this in the future….

Sure wished we would have known of this before, but better late than never!

Have a Great “Marine Traffic” Day!

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Extended Tax Season Finish Line, New Neat Tracking Site Found … Friday

With an original Mid-March Corporate Tax Deadline, a regular estimated tax (ES 2021) April deadline … a most states extend 1040 to May deadline and then a June Taxes deadline for Texas and a few other states this could have been the longest tax season ever!

Next week marks the final full finish line of this most confusing and marathon like tax filing year. Thank you very much for your collective patience as it was very confusing to all across the country.

Possible New Economic Tracker

Next week we hope to preview another newly found very cool website that can monitor indirectly the economy, this one … unlike our TSA tracker… does not involving airplanes but boats! With a little luck we will get copyright privileges and can show you directly.

Ahhh … but that is next week, today is a Friday heading into an almost summer weekend. As mentioned near Memorial Day, a hope for an Ark …the rain has stopped …it’s still very wet here but slowly drying …some monster mosquitos that can carry small pets away …. But all good!

Have a great Friday a Super Weekend and talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Memorial Day Weekend, School’s Out, Office Hours, TSA Throughput Update WOW! , The Ark of Texas

We are happy to give honor to all those who server in the military and especially those fallen during their service. You give us the ability to live our life safe, and proudly…

Memorial Day

Thank you for your service!

Memorial Day Honored

Memorial Day is honored on Monday May 31 2021

Banks, Government offices, Capital Markets and our office will be closed as well

School Schedule – Done Tomorrow – Out of Office Friday

For the first time ever for my gang and likely for the rest of the office, all of our kids are out by tomorrow, mid day at the latest!

With a half day on Thursday heading into the honored weekend, we are planning on being out of the office on Friday and will only be very lightly tethered.

TSA Throughput Update – For Those Flyers

Earlier this week, a nice comment email from a Clemente at www.Fligence.com came through noting the work we had done on TSA Throughput….

After a few exchanged emails, she allowed us to reproduce her company TSA throughput information here with credits of course….

We encourage those interested and especially those that are starting to travel again to go to her company website as you can drill down to your specific airport for latest TSA numbers, daily and even hourly for your travel planning purposes–fligence.com

Timely for those that may be traveling via air this week … with air support personal likely still at low capacity, we are getting closer to full bookings (seems unbelievable from a year ago!)

Lighter Blue 2021 line is their Future Estimates

Ark of Texas

As mentioned frequently, we are an outside family…. actually everyone at our firm are outside people and their families too!

For those 1000 or so followers in other places of the country, there is some weird storm system that is STUCK over Texas.

No Sun….

Lot’s of Rain…

Grrrrrr…….

Lemon Aid from Lemons …. Grass is growing if it does not float away to your neighbors yard!

Have a Great Rest of the Week, and Memorial Day – Talk Next Week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

TSA Latest Throughput (Corrected Graph), Indeed Job Listing, Kastle Back To Work Update … Trifecta Bundle … Friday

As mentioned on Wednesday’s Slow Moe Money Post, this was actually scheduled for the Hump Day, but was ousted due to our continued snail findings of overwhelmed financial institutions across every aspect of the financial world.

With that in mind, this is a bit of a heavier Friday, but all of these missed the Newsletter due, once again, to your great experiences and questions!

TSA Throughput Updates

While not knowing of this data prior to 2020, we have enjoyed monitoring it greatly….

Hat Tip JP and “The Brain” for noticing my bad data chart and repairing … now we are cooking!

While passenger count is gaining steam, especially notice Thanksgiving Holidays ….

We are still well behind 2019, “Normal” numbers!

Vaccine should help, end of year Holidays will be interesting… not to worry we are so enamored you will certainly see a review here!

Indeeds Job Posting Update – Global and Local

In another fascinating find, and once approved from the company for reproduction, we are just at the tip of the iceberg of this data, as there are well over 100 data bases …. as mentioned here, yep we have reviewed all and so far are just monitoring this Global…

This data comes from Indeed’s two research sites https://www.hiringlab.org/ and the raw data site https://github.com/hiring-lab/data , all of this is put together in our favorite St Louis Federal Reserve FRED website.

Go Australia, all the way back to flat or just above — Nice!

And our second favorite, our own back yard of Cities here in Texas!

Go San Antonio- you guys rock and are almost back to whole as well.

KASTLE Back to Work Barometer

Frist mentioned here, this fantastic tracker is from none other than a security company…what a great way to utilize your inside knowledge for the help of many!

Watch out if you are buying, renting or expanding the commercial footprint – this is no where near Indeed’s job posting bounce all the way back!

Here is a link to a more interactive Kastle graph that you can hover over for exact information.

Again, well done to all!

Heavy for a Friday, but sometimes that occurs….

Have a Good Weekend and Happy Holiday Season!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Interesting Consumer Purchasing Item… Upon Review, Makes Total Sense!

As you may know we have found several interesting items to follow this year….

First was the TSA throughput, measuring the upward trend in traffic passing through TSA security … here, here and here

Then we stumbled upon the Kastle back to work index, showing commercial office vacancy rates of the ten largest cities – interesting Kastle is a security monitoring company among other things, but hence the ability to share the data.

Used Auto Prices

Recently through the grapevine we heard stories of used auto purchase increases, which make sense as folks exit the larger metro areas and possibly avoid crowded public transportation …

So here is a longer dated chart …

Let’s look a little closer …magnifying the most recent activity

So this is the Price Index for Used Cars and Trucks from the St. Louis Fed (FRED) database….

Surprising at first, but upon second thought…. not surprising at all !

We will keep track, and hope you find it maybe just a little bit as interesting as we do!

Have a Great “Used Car and Truck Flying off the shelf” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Traveling Update, Are We Traveling Yet? TSA Throughput Update and General Thoughts on Travels from the Field

Just after The United States started limiting travel we Luckily stumbled across TSA throughput which measures air travelers going through TSA checkpoints.

Here is a link to our prior four articles … and with an intent of updating for our collective review every 30 to 60 days we accidentally let this one go 78 days.

First the 2020 numbers noting the dramatic drop-off and then the continued increase. It appears that we are somewhat leveling off and it will be very interesting to see what this looks like as we head into the fall and winter season. On the one hand every day gets us closer to a cure and on the other hand the cold and flu season may cause some to limit their travel.

Here is a more telling chart which shows the difference from last year and this year, while we’re far from back to the norm we are continuing to gain strength and once again it will be interesting to see how long it takes us to get back to the 2019 numbers.

In talking to friends, colleagues, and clients, the general business traveler seems to be ready to travel approximately spring of next year, and many have traveled this year, for the record but with a few exceptions, all felt safe and had good experiences, especially on flights with no center seat seating.

Have a Great “TSA Updated” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

TSA Throughput Update – Are We Flying Yet?

Several months ago, we stumbled across TSA Throughput numbers (never knew they existed) and have found interest in monitoring the numbers.

Here was our first look 49 days ago to be exact….

img_7292

Over the most recent weekend, on a regularly evening bike ride near the house, two days in a row, multiple large jets made their way over, disrupting the most recently quietened skies…. even enough time for a quick pic …

Time for an update – glad to have kept the chart template -hence the logo too  – so here we go!

TSA Throughput Update – Are We Flying yet?

We are definitely flying MORE …

8-1-20 TSA Throughput w logo

 

 

But hold on … the above chart does not tell the whole story –

8-1-20 TSA Throughput V year ago

Wow… that’s amazing to us … just how fast it was shut down, how much we have come back since the bottom, but yet how much farther we have to go before back to normal….

Will keep the monitoring up, maybe the planes spotted over the weekend were just coincidence?

No matter, time will clarify and we will be watching!

Have a Great “Their Kinda Traveling” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

June 2020 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale … From the Road

Hello and Welcome to our June 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

June – 2020 Video (YouTube)

 

Financial Planning Tip  –

The Virtual Pivot

Oddly, this heading is the same from last month, but has a different meaning…

Here in this post we discussed how many folks are really enjoying working remotely….

In fact, the mentioned study showed that 98% of folks wanted at least some remote time moving forward…now that’s an incredible Pivot!

b8780aea-4b3c-4faa-81fb-b04cae5c29e9-49855-000003ca0134d2d5

In the future, likely some blending of remote and office…. nothing ever will replace face to face, but a nice blend may cut down on away from family and travel expenses…time will tell.

TSA Throughput Statistics

Over a weekend of surfing stumbling onto the TSA Throughput numbers an idea of sharing via graphic form was posted here in this post.

We even created this neat graph…

6-11-20 TSA Throughput 2020 v 2019

Good thing we did a review of this as the creation spreadsheet made its way to the recycle bend…not any more… it’s safely back now…

Looking forward to reviewing this again in the future to see if this continues?

Capital Market Comments

The Look Through Continues – Expect Bumps

Global markets continue to claw their way back, as investors look through the earnings drop and lowered interest rates help create a tailwind.

Recently, global markets took a few steps back when increases in cases occurred…. this makes sense.

Global markets are likely ahead of themselves….. time will tell, as mentioned in our Newsletter, there is a lot of horsepower aimed at fixing the situation in Unity!

Expect bumps, and headline shocks, both positive and negative … but that’s why we are happily conservative investors at heart!

6-30-20 World Indexes YTD 2020

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of July!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Observations from TSA Throughput … Travelers are Beginning to Travel

Never knew TSA (Transport Security Administration) had a throughput (numbers of people that go through checkpoints) public tracking system.

We do now, and pulled some interesting data from their website over the weekend…

We are certainly not making ANY opinion on traveling or safety … just observations from curiosity…

TSA Throughput Numbers

Early April seems to be the low in passengers … and by all counts, people are getting back on planes…

6-11-20 TSA Throughput 2020

As can be seen from the next chart, while folks are getting out, they are far from normal travel volume, at least using the same time frame a year ago … Right now, looks like about 25% on last year traffic!

6-11-20 TSA Throughput 2020 v 2019

Hope you like these snazzy charts with the logo…figured since we made the charts would take credit.

Finding this so interesting, will review again in the future.

Have a Great “TSA Throughput Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents