Tag Archives: Unemployment Rate

Pausing for a moment to realize just how good Economically it is today …

There are always shortcomings … as a growing “Type A” country, we want more and better … Let’s pause for just a moment …

Maybe my Road Trip is making me sentimental … reflective for sure

March 2009, 823 thousand jobs were reported lost

The lowest bar on this chart was on March of 2009 (coincidentally, the bottom of the great recession stock market too– digressing)

Pause for just a moment … 823k people were fired/left the workforce, IN ONE MONTH … that’s a small town !

11-1-17 All Employees

Unemployment rate hits 4.1%

By scanning the chart above, as the bars turned up the resilient USA economy started rebuilding/hiring workers again.

Looking from a different angle, last Friday the USA unemployment rate logged a fresh great recession low of 4.1%

11-1-17 Unemployment rate 10 year trailing

Pretty good stuff!

Have a “Good” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

August 2017 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update- By John Kvale

Here is our August 2017 Monthly review.

August 2017 Video

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

1 Minute Video Series – Six of them to be exact

Over the last six weeks we had fun recording our first series of videos on our New Total Vault …. A total of Six to be exact!

  1. Finding your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  2. Resetting the Password on your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  3. Uploading Important Docs to your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  4. Connecting outside Accounts to your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  5. Running nifty reports from your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  6. Constant Improvements coming from your Cool New TOTAL Vault

All of these can be found using our search feature on our blog here or here at our main website.

Capital Market Comments

The “Natural” rate of Employment/Unemployment

In this post during the month we take a deep look at the Unemployment rate and just why it was not different this time, but why it took so long to normalize.

img_0889

It is not to much of a stretch to think normalization took longer because it has been such a slow recovery. VERY SLOW — this recovery is the far right weak line with the lowest slope.

JPMorgan GDP expansion chart

See you at the end of September.

Happy Summer!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Natural Rate Of Unemployment/Employment ?

Post great recession of 07-09, many including ourselves were not certain just what the rate of Employment or Unemployment the US economy would run at in the future.

  • It was different this time many said?
  • Technological advances and replacement would push many out of employment?
  • Aging demographics may push the rates to different/higher/lower levels?

With almost 10 years in the books since the great recession began, we now know just what did change? Not much!

Full Employment/Unemployment history

Taking a look at this chart from FRED a research tank at the St Louise Federal Reserve, while it took longer to get back to historical levels, it finally has.

Granted there can be debates on the scope of the current employment rate, but from a high level measure stick such as this, it looks normal.

This longer term fantastic chart from this research report of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, shows the same.

 

Why did it take so long to normalize?

One good question many have asked is why did it take so long to normalize again?

The great recession was just that, so GREAT, it really put dents in the economy making this one of the slowest recoveries on record.

The weakest recovery line (slowest and lowest in the chart) represents this recovery. (This chart from our friends at JPMorgan.)

JPMorgan GDP expansion chart

The good news about such a slow recovery is that is has also become one of the longest, due to just that fact, slow and gradual, and certainly not overheating!

Have a Great Full Employment Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

USA Employment Update and Consumer Analysis – NICE!

Consumers are the ultimate driver of an Economy, especially the US economy. By most estimates, the consumer and his/her spending makes up over 66% of the US GDP (Gross Domestic Production) a broad measure of economic health.

Here is an interesting analysis of the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) most recent monthly Employment Report … mentioned on our “Break In”  of our Friday post.

Employed Consumer

The highest, most blunt view of employment is the Unemployment rate, usually figured in % total unemployed.

At 4.4%, the unemployment rate has fallen to a rate many, including ourselves thought maybe possible via post great recession!

The little Economy Engine that could!

img_0792
Take this job and shove it

Confident enough to walk away from the job? Sure looks like it.

Said another way, individuals have enough confidence in finding a new job, they are not afraid to walk from their current one.

A new high soon?

 

img_0795

Job Opening- aka JOLTS

Brought to the attention of many by our current Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, the job opening report also known as JOLTS report is showing clear evidence of job opportunities.

This chart helps explain why workers are not afraid to walk from their current job as well (prior chart.)

Jobs are abundant!

img_0800

Total Employment to Population

Certainly the Great Recession has had lingering effects. Focusing on the move upward since 2009, one can see the line heading in the correct direction, possibly giving confidence to those above who are leaving their current job.

Bottom line, a more confident, job opportunistic consumer economy! 

img_0794

Full Circle Now- Higher Spending? Higher GDP?

Going back to our original statement, with so much tailwind for the consumer coming from the employment of the US Economy, it would not be a stretch to think higher spending is in the cards, and a better GDP!

NICE!!

Have a Great “Healthy Consumer Economy” Monday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Not buying a Weak Employment Report –

The first Friday of each month marks a major employment report release for the prior month. Last Friday, June 3rd the May report was released.

We do not buy it’s accuracy! We are not shouting fraud or conspiracy, only the numbers just do not add up.

Wages Good

May 2016 US -average-hourly-earnings

Actual Unemployment Rate well below 5%

 

May 2016 US-unemployment-rate

This is one nice trend… 4.7% unemployment rate is nice.

Here is the zinger-  38k hired versus 164k expected

 

May 2016 us-non-farm-payrolls- trading economics

Way over to the right, that little bar of 38k represents the number of folks hired in May of 2016. The expectations were for 164k.

Nah, sample was off … we think it is highly likely this will be revised.

Bond market sure thinks it was real, based on the drop in the 10 year yield…. We rarely question the bond market, but we are this time.

6-2-16 10 year treasury yield

Have a great day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com