Tag Archives: Unemployment Report

When Good News is Bad News … Friday Payroll’s GREAT … But … This Post Jump in Front of Planned …

Posted on February 6, 2023 by | Leave a comment

Had a heavy post for today planned …. about a pretty complicated event occurring in the Capital Markets…just moved it to Wednesday with a bit of travels this week and continued Capital Market movement from a Friday Economic report… wanted to move the later to the front today as it is a bit simpler, but super important as well…

Hang on, both posts this week a bit heavy, but will keep today’s short!

Hot Jobs Numbers Puts Pressure on FED, Rates (short end) and Capital Markets

When GOOD news is bad … it happens in this part of the cycle!

On Friday February 3, 2023 the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released the “Employment Report” for January 2023…. all about expectations versus actual….

Anyone extrapolating that downward sloping chart – Far Right below. would have certainly NOT EXPECTED that huge January 23 bar… anyone would include all of Wall Street and the FOMC – (Very lagging reading, likely revised, BUT much different from expectations)

New Jobs Expected 190k ACTUAL 571K — Ya ya will be revised, but for now is what Wall Street has…

The good news is from this report lots of jobs and more than expected…. Bad News… Fed may continue to be aggressive in slowing the economy… aka Higher short term rates…

Big move in the 2 Year Treasury, one of the most in sync with Fed rate moves…

Ok… all caught up from last week…be sure to have your coffee before reading Wednesday’s post!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

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Hot Jobs Report Puts Fire Under FOMC … Markets Take Notice

Posted on February 7, 2022 by | Leave a comment

Last Friday, January 4, 2022 the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released the most recent Employment report for January.

With the report actually quadrupling employment hire expectations and large revisions upward to several prior reports, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is all but forced to begin raising rates soon!

BREAK IN – Interesting Weekend Research Findings – In two different areas of the financial world, this last weekend of researching this post a reminder that HUGE population adjustments occurred in this report. Here is an accidental finding from the St Louis research site showing the effects of the revisions in 2021…

From the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 467,000 in January, and the unemployment
rate was little changed at 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today. Employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality, in professional and
business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing.

Hot Report Puts FOMC on Go For Raising Rates

This HOT report, of 467k gains in employment, with expectations less than half of this number surprised market participants and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) too, most certainly.

Adds in employment continue to help the Unemployment rate, once again giving the FOMC a green light of urgency to raise interest rates.

Market participant digestion of the rate raises will be interesting. Recall just a month or so ago, FOMC officials saw only one raise in 2022.

Also, recall our review of a large conference on March 24 of 2021 — yes 2021 almost one year ago…

Views: Number One From the Conference – Go Away FOMC – You Have Stayed Too Long

View number one and shared by every market related expert, the federal reserve is overstaying their welcome and should immediately stop asset purchases and begin talking about increasing rates. The main reason for these shared views are because asset levels have become inflated across almost all assets according to the experts and be continued purchases are no longer necessary given that capital markets are orderly.

Has the FOMC waited too long?

Next up, interest rates front run the FOMC!

Have a Great “Hot Unemployment Report Review” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

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Continued Improvement in the US Economy … Monthly BLS Employment Report .. Unemployment Rate, Interest Rate Reaction

Posted on August 9, 2021 by | Leave a comment

On Friday, August 6, 2021 the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released the prior monthly (July 2021) employment related report. It is worth noting these are preliminary and will be adjusted in future months, but usually major adjustments are not in the picture….

Bottom Line:

943k hires in the month of July … NICE

5.4% Unemployment Rate as of July …Getting there (lower is better of course)

10 Year Treasuries Took note

BLS Unemployment Report for July 2021

The following Chart from the BLS may look unenthusiastic at first glance….. but hold on!

With the DRAMATIC volatility from the past year, the longer term chart does not give a true recent view…. Let’s look a little closer …. Much Better!

In much the same vein as above, the year view of the Unemployment rate does not look like a big deal as can be seen by the next chart!

On second thought, again with a closer view….. NICE! (We want a downward trending chart when measuring Unemployment)

10 Year Treasuries Wake Up

A measure of future expected growth, after some wrong sided players (shorting the 10 year in expectation of much higher rates faster) blew up pushing yields possibly incorrectly lower….

From Business Insider here

A hedge fund reportedly lost $1.5 billion in a bond market short-squeeze as bets on rising rates turned sour

These Good Economic Numbers put yields on the move higher (far right of chart)!

Continued improvement would likely force the FOMC to slow asset purchases…. as discussed here much desired by many !

Have a Great “Good Economic News” and analysis Monday!


John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

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Posted in Economy, FOMC, General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Retirement Planning

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Two Nice Data Points Last Week You May have Missed…. Housing and Employment … An In-House Perspective Too

Posted on July 6, 2020 by | Leave a comment

In case you were busy last Holiday Shortened week (Hope you had a Happy Fourth of July) and missed a couple of important data points …. here they are

MBA Purchasing Index Continues to Do Great

First Mentioned here, back in March, last week (7-1-20) another very strong reading of the MBA Purchase index, which is an index that tracks purchases of homes, (Excludes Refinances) and gives a good future expectation view of home movement, value and transaction…

Click here for the latest release.

On a personal, in-house perspective, with an unusually high 20 and counting residential home movements SO FAR this year, we are seeing a liquid, fair and fast paced market!

Employment Update – BLS

Then, the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statics) released their update on the unemployment rates…

Yes it is still high, but the drop caught many by surprise and was a much greater drop than expected!

7-2-20 Unemplorment Rate BLS Survey

A pretty Good Good economic release week…again, that may have slipped by you!

Have a Great ” Good Last Week Economic Numbers” Monday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

 

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What Happens When You Get A Decidedly Positive Economic Reading, While Expecting Negative?

Posted on June 8, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Last Friday, June 5, 2020 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its regularly schedule monthly report of hiring and firing report nicked name “The Employment Situation”

Closely followed as a broad measure of the health of the economy and the consumer, experts (so called) from all ports of finance (Economist, bankers, investment bankers, brokers) tally their estimates of what the monthly reading will be.

In all fairness, due to bread crumbs from other reports, usually the forecasts are very close and often garner a quick glance and a carry on to other items attention span.

Fridays expectations were for a loss of just over 7 million folks.

Oops – What Happens When You Miss Big?

With an expectation of ( -7 million) more job losses and announcement of +2.5 million gains, caught Market Participants WAY off guard…

6-5-20 Nonfarmpayroll surprise

Interest Rates took note as well… which is very logical, as rates go up as economic conditions expand…

6-5-20 Us 10 year treasury

Likely ahead of ourselves a bit, but heck it is a start….

Bumps most certainly still ahead… but still a start…

Have a Great “Why We Don’t Forecast Much” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

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Posted in Economy, General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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Three Economic Charts that should make Us all Feel Good – 3.8% Unemployment Rate

Posted on June 4, 2018 by | Leave a comment

Post great recession, the Unemployment rate went into double digits … +10% …. Many including us thought the new natural level of unemployment may be near 6% – prior to the great recession most believed 4% would be the all time low…

3.8% Unemployment Rate

The regular monthly Employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last Friday, June 1 that the Unemployment rate hit 3.8% — Yes 3.8%!

Wow….

 

6-3-18 Unemployment Rate Fred

Naysayers would say this will put pressure on wages, pushing up the CPI – Consumer Price Index – indirectly forcing the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to raise rates fast — possible inducing an inverted yield curve…. leading to a recession… got that… sorry for the long domino effect– but this is how Wall Street thinks… perception can become reality… Let’s check the CPI …

6-3-18 CPI St Louis Fred

The CPI looks fine and has not moved up too much.  Here is a possible reason why…

Jolts – Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey

5-8-18 JOLTS Fred

Essentially this is a relatively new statistic that many follow included the FOMC, that shows what the US Economy is producing in the form of jobs…. an increase in this chart means more jobs are available…

More Employment, but more Jobs… No Inflation —

Nice…

Have a Great “Lower Unemployment” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

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USA Employment Update and Consumer Analysis – NICE!

Posted on May 8, 2017 by | Leave a comment

Consumers are the ultimate driver of an Economy, especially the US economy. By most estimates, the consumer and his/her spending makes up over 66% of the US GDP (Gross Domestic Production) a broad measure of economic health.

Here is an interesting analysis of the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) most recent monthly Employment Report … mentioned on our “Break In”  of our Friday post.

Employed Consumer

The highest, most blunt view of employment is the Unemployment rate, usually figured in % total unemployed.

At 4.4%, the unemployment rate has fallen to a rate many, including ourselves thought maybe possible via post great recession!

The little Economy Engine that could!

img_0792
Take this job and shove it

Confident enough to walk away from the job? Sure looks like it.

Said another way, individuals have enough confidence in finding a new job, they are not afraid to walk from their current one.

A new high soon?

 

img_0795

Job Opening- aka JOLTS

Brought to the attention of many by our current Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, the job opening report also known as JOLTS report is showing clear evidence of job opportunities.

This chart helps explain why workers are not afraid to walk from their current job as well (prior chart.)

Jobs are abundant!

img_0800

Total Employment to Population

Certainly the Great Recession has had lingering effects. Focusing on the move upward since 2009, one can see the line heading in the correct direction, possibly giving confidence to those above who are leaving their current job.

Bottom line, a more confident, job opportunistic consumer economy! 

img_0794

Full Circle Now- Higher Spending? Higher GDP?

Going back to our original statement, with so much tailwind for the consumer coming from the employment of the US Economy, it would not be a stretch to think higher spending is in the cards, and a better GDP!

NICE!!

Have a Great “Healthy Consumer Economy” Monday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

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Economic Report Update – Somber Friday in Dallas

Posted on July 8, 2016 by | 2 comments

As we had mentioned earlier when an odd economic report occurred, we noted it likely inaccurate. Today the report for the most recent month was released and it looks like the two will cross each other out – we will discuss in greater detail shortly.

Somber Friday

We were stunned at the shooting here in our home town of Dallas Texas last night. Our office is not close to downtown, and thankfully our friends in that area are safe and sound as well as ourselves. Thanks to all of those who reached out to us!

We send the best wishes to the victims and the families of those who lost their lives or were injured in the shooting. So sorry this occurred!

Have a thankful and blessed weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

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Posted in Economy, Investing/Financial Planning, John Kvale, Personal

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Not buying a Weak Employment Report –

Posted on June 6, 2016 by | 2 comments

The first Friday of each month marks a major employment report release for the prior month. Last Friday, June 3rd the May report was released.

We do not buy it’s accuracy! We are not shouting fraud or conspiracy, only the numbers just do not add up.

Wages Good

May 2016 US -average-hourly-earnings

Actual Unemployment Rate well below 5%

 

May 2016 US-unemployment-rate

This is one nice trend… 4.7% unemployment rate is nice.

Here is the zinger-  38k hired versus 164k expected

 

May 2016 us-non-farm-payrolls- trading economics

Way over to the right, that little bar of 38k represents the number of folks hired in May of 2016. The expectations were for 164k.

Nah, sample was off … we think it is highly likely this will be revised.

Bond market sure thinks it was real, based on the drop in the 10 year yield…. We rarely question the bond market, but we are this time.

6-2-16 10 year treasury yield

Have a great day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

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Posted in Economy, Forecast, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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March 2016 Video, Monthly Review, Tax Tip By John Kvale

Posted on April 4, 2016 by | Leave a comment

What a different a month (or two) can make. Here is our March 2016, all new…trendy format Monthly Capital Market Review and last minute tax tips, along with a Video for your viewing and listening pleasure. Hope you are enjoying!

 March 2016 Video

 

 

Final Reminder Tax Tip

As Moto Moto said in Madagascar, these tips are so good we had to say them twice!

Our favorite tax savings ideas that still work for last year (2015 taxes):

  • Itemize your standard tax deduction
  • HSA- Health Savings Account
  • Fund an IRA
  • Simplified Employee Pension – SEP deduction/contribution against non W-2 income (1099)

Tax Fraud Alert

As noted here, last month we had our first incidence of fraud in February. We are now up to 9.5 so far, as we have one incident that we think was fraud, but could not be proven!

Be sure to keep your guard up!

 

Economic Update

PMI Manufacturing Index

PMI  (Definition: The ISM manufacturing composite index indicates overall factory sector trends. The relevance of this indicator is enhanced by the fact that it is available very early in the month and is not subject to revision.) Graph from our friends at Econoday.

Less than 50 is contraction, greater than 50 is growth.

3-31-16 PMI from Edonoday

Employment Situation

While there was a small increase in unemployment claims late in March, the overall employment picture, via hiring, as can be seen below, again from our friends at Econoday, remains steady. It is worth noting, these reports can be volatile.

3-31-16 Employement Situation from Econoday

Capital Markets Update

Updated Support and Resistance

This Graph, included in our Newsletter, shows the updated Support and Resistance lines and levels of the current market.

As mentioned in our Yellen Speaks post, after telling capital market participants that slower rate increases were more likely (late 2015 she told the world to expect four increases, now only two) capital markets smartly broke through the lower upper resistance. Now, can we go to new highs ? Maybe …

Never go all in or all out !

3-30-16 S&P Chart

Oil and Market Correlation Chart

For those that think oil does not affect the sentiment and capital markets, look at this chart from Liz Saunders :

3-31-16 S&P Crude correlation

Sorry for the motor mouth/fingers … there were a lot of moves worth noting, especially very near the end of the month !

Have a Great Day!

See you again at the end of April !

John A. Kvale

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
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