On Friday, August 6, 2021 the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released the prior monthly (July 2021) employment related report. It is worth noting these are preliminary and will be adjusted in future months, but usually major adjustments are not in the picture….
Bottom Line:
943k hires in the month of July … NICE
5.4% Unemployment Rate as of July …Getting there (lower is better of course)
10 Year Treasuries Took note
BLS Unemployment Report for July 2021
The following Chart from the BLS may look unenthusiastic at first glance….. but hold on!
With the DRAMATIC volatility from the past year, the longer term chart does not give a true recent view…. Let’s look a little closer …. Much Better!
In much the same vein as above, the year view of the Unemployment rate does not look like a big deal as can be seen by the next chart!
On second thought, again with a closer view….. NICE! (We want a downward trending chart when measuring Unemployment)
10 Year Treasuries Wake Up
A measure of future expected growth, after some wrong sided players (shorting the 10 year in expectation of much higher rates faster) blew up pushing yields possibly incorrectly lower….
A hedge fund reportedly lost $1.5 billion in a bond market short-squeeze as bets on rising rates turned sour
These Good Economic Numbers put yields on the move higher (far right of chart)!
Continued improvement would likely force the FOMC to slow asset purchases…. as discussed here much desired by many !
Have a Great “Good Economic News” and analysis Monday!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
$treet-¢ents 
Hot Jobs Report Puts Fire Under FOMC … Markets Take Notice
Last Friday, January 4, 2022 the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released the most recent Employment report for January.
With the report actually quadrupling employment hire expectations and large revisions upward to several prior reports, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is all but forced to begin raising rates soon!
BREAK IN – Interesting Weekend Research Findings – In two different areas of the financial world, this last weekend of researching this post a reminder that HUGE population adjustments occurred in this report. Here is an accidental finding from the St Louis research site showing the effects of the revisions in 2021…
From the report:
Hot Report Puts FOMC on Go For Raising Rates
This HOT report, of 467k gains in employment, with expectations less than half of this number surprised market participants and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) too, most certainly.
Adds in employment continue to help the Unemployment rate, once again giving the FOMC a green light of urgency to raise interest rates.
Market participant digestion of the rate raises will be interesting. Recall just a month or so ago, FOMC officials saw only one raise in 2022.
Also, recall our review of a large conference on March 24 of 2021 — yes 2021 almost one year ago…
Views: Number One From the Conference – Go Away FOMC – You Have Stayed Too Long
View number one and shared by every market related expert, the federal reserve is overstaying their welcome and should immediately stop asset purchases and begin talking about increasing rates. The main reason for these shared views are because asset levels have become inflated across almost all assets according to the experts and be continued purchases are no longer necessary given that capital markets are orderly.
Has the FOMC waited too long?
Next up, interest rates front run the FOMC!
Have a Great “Hot Unemployment Report Review” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
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Posted in Economy, FOMC, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments
Tagged BLS, Employment report, FOMC, Interest Rates, Unemployment Report