Tag Archives: Unemployment

Last Friday Employment Report Review – Payroll Employment Vs Unemployment Rate Vs Oil Prices … Very Mixed Signals …

On Last Friday 6-2-23 (Always the first Friday of the new month) – the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released their regular monthly report of the employment situation…

The Good – Well Maybe?

While the actual “New Jobs” portion of the report… blew the numbers away… so much so that it gives many pause …. including ourselves …

Hat tip Mike Green –

Recall our last Advance Analysis about good ole Standard Deviations…. dang we knew this would come in handy…. this far from the expectations would be VERY unusual….maybe even unbelievable??

The Bad –

The Unemployment rate actually ticked UP…. What ? hmmmmm

Payroll employment increases by 339,000 in May; unemployment rate rises to 3.7%

The Bad Again –

Was going with the Ugly, but it was not really Ugly, just bad or not good again… stay with us here

On Sunday afternoon US time, the OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia announced additional oil production CUTS…. in order to prop up oil prices which are, in part falling due to demand and demand expectations….

With a fair amount of “Is it over?” Questions over the weekend from various contacts…thought it worth sharing …. Very Doubtful… And we are glass half full folks….

Have a Great “The Good (maybe), the bad and the bad” Monday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

When Good News is Bad News … Friday Payroll’s GREAT … But … This Post Jump in Front of Planned …

Had a heavy post for today planned …. about a pretty complicated event occurring in the Capital Markets…just moved it to Wednesday with a bit of travels this week and continued Capital Market movement from a Friday Economic report… wanted to move the later to the front today as it is a bit simpler, but super important as well…

Hang on, both posts this week a bit heavy, but will keep today’s short!

Hot Jobs Numbers Puts Pressure on FED, Rates (short end) and Capital Markets

When GOOD news is bad … it happens in this part of the cycle!

On Friday February 3, 2023 the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released the “Employment Report” for January 2023…. all about expectations versus actual….

Anyone extrapolating that downward sloping chart – Far Right below. would have certainly NOT EXPECTED that huge January 23 bar… anyone would include all of Wall Street and the FOMC – (Very lagging reading, likely revised, BUT much different from expectations)

New Jobs Expected 190k ACTUAL 571K — Ya ya will be revised, but for now is what Wall Street has…

The good news is from this report lots of jobs and more than expected…. Bad News… Fed may continue to be aggressive in slowing the economy… aka Higher short term rates…

Big move in the 2 Year Treasury, one of the most in sync with Fed rate moves…

Ok… all caught up from last week…be sure to have your coffee before reading Wednesday’s post!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

False Unemployment Fraud Warning… First Partial Week of School Completed…Whew!

In the last two weeks we have observed two false unemployment claims and wanted to give everyone a heads up on what is going on and the actions you can take.

Unemployment Fraud Alert – Action Items

Over the past several years I personally have had two fraudulent unemployment claims made in my name oddly to my own company and Donald the Brain, has had it happen once to him as well. In the last two weeks we’ve had two instances of false unemployment claims being attempted and wanted to give everybody a heads up!

What happens is a Social Security number is obtained and a place of Employment then a false Unemployment claim is made to the employer. In all cases mentioned all persons were of course still employed and much to the surprise of the employer the unemployment claim was certainly a fraud and quickly detected.

The best and most appropriate action is to immediately send a note to the appropriate workforce commission, (in the state of Texas it is the Texas Workforce Commission) that the employee is still gainfully employed … this can be done by in most cases the employer or HR director.

The employee that is falsely having unemployment compensation filed for them will likely receive nothing at their home address as the fraudster wants the money to go to his or her address there by having a different address from the employee’s home address. Said another way it’s very likely that only the employer will receive the false filing.

We are happy to report in all cases so far there has been no further damage leading us to believe a Social Security number and Employment information we’re obtained illegitimately, and a swing was made at the unemployment payments with a miss being an indication to move on to the next person in line. Bottom line invasive but not destructive in all the cases so far.

Do keep your head on a financial swivel for other items in your financial world as it’s always a good idea to keep your eyes peeled on all credit and bank accounts post having fraud attempted with your Social Security number.

Partial School Week Over- Whew

The first partial week of school is over it’s funny how they’re not near as happy to go back to school as they were to get out of school… but it’s all good!

Have a great weekend will talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Another Positive Friday … Pre-View March Review and Emotional Cycle

With Negatives still topping most headlines, I am running with another Positive Friday as we head into a weekend… those that missed, this is the third Positive Friday, here and here are the prior two for an extra Positive Moment … but now this weeks Positives:

  • Every Day is a Day Closer to Normal
  • March is behind us
  • If you are able to read this, it’s a pretty darn good day!
  • We all have each other
  • Our Country continues to work in Unity
  • Stimulus Rebate Checks to over 90% of the population are getting ready to be sent
  • Unemploymentfor the Self Employed is coming
  • No Mandatory RMD’s this year
  • Forgiveness Loans to Businesses to Keep Employees on the payroll

Next week we will return to our regularly scheduled three times per week Posts which will include a belated March Review Video (Hair Salons are not essential…look out) and an Emotional Cycle Graph that is homegrown along with forthright ways our family is keeping spirits in check!

Until then…..

Have a GREAT “Positive” Friday and Weekend, Stay Safe!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Three Economic Charts that should make Us all Feel Good – 3.8% Unemployment Rate

Post great recession, the Unemployment rate went into double digits … +10% …. Many including us thought the new natural level of unemployment may be near 6% – prior to the great recession most believed 4% would be the all time low…

3.8% Unemployment Rate

The regular monthly Employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last Friday, June 1 that the Unemployment rate hit 3.8% — Yes 3.8%!

Wow….

 

6-3-18 Unemployment Rate Fred

Naysayers would say this will put pressure on wages, pushing up the CPI – Consumer Price Index – indirectly forcing the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to raise rates fast — possible inducing an inverted yield curve…. leading to a recession… got that… sorry for the long domino effect– but this is how Wall Street thinks… perception can become reality… Let’s check the CPI …

6-3-18 CPI St Louis Fred

The CPI looks fine and has not moved up too much.  Here is a possible reason why…

Jolts – Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey

5-8-18 JOLTS Fred

Essentially this is a relatively new statistic that many follow included the FOMC, that shows what the US Economy is producing in the form of jobs…. an increase in this chart means more jobs are available…

More Employment, but more Jobs… No Inflation —

Nice…

Have a Great “Lower Unemployment” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

August 2017 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update- By John Kvale

Here is our August 2017 Monthly review.

August 2017 Video

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

1 Minute Video Series – Six of them to be exact

Over the last six weeks we had fun recording our first series of videos on our New Total Vault …. A total of Six to be exact!

  1. Finding your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  2. Resetting the Password on your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  3. Uploading Important Docs to your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  4. Connecting outside Accounts to your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  5. Running nifty reports from your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  6. Constant Improvements coming from your Cool New TOTAL Vault

All of these can be found using our search feature on our blog here or here at our main website.

Capital Market Comments

The “Natural” rate of Employment/Unemployment

In this post during the month we take a deep look at the Unemployment rate and just why it was not different this time, but why it took so long to normalize.

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It is not to much of a stretch to think normalization took longer because it has been such a slow recovery. VERY SLOW — this recovery is the far right weak line with the lowest slope.

JPMorgan GDP expansion chart

See you at the end of September.

Happy Summer!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Natural Rate Of Unemployment/Employment ?

Post great recession of 07-09, many including ourselves were not certain just what the rate of Employment or Unemployment the US economy would run at in the future.

  • It was different this time many said?
  • Technological advances and replacement would push many out of employment?
  • Aging demographics may push the rates to different/higher/lower levels?

With almost 10 years in the books since the great recession began, we now know just what did change? Not much!

Full Employment/Unemployment history

Taking a look at this chart from FRED a research tank at the St Louise Federal Reserve, while it took longer to get back to historical levels, it finally has.

Granted there can be debates on the scope of the current employment rate, but from a high level measure stick such as this, it looks normal.

This longer term fantastic chart from this research report of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, shows the same.

 

Why did it take so long to normalize?

One good question many have asked is why did it take so long to normalize again?

The great recession was just that, so GREAT, it really put dents in the economy making this one of the slowest recoveries on record.

The weakest recovery line (slowest and lowest in the chart) represents this recovery. (This chart from our friends at JPMorgan.)

JPMorgan GDP expansion chart

The good news about such a slow recovery is that is has also become one of the longest, due to just that fact, slow and gradual, and certainly not overheating!

Have a Great Full Employment Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

Natural Rate of Employment … Eclipse … Last day of freedom from my gang (School Starting) … Friday

Post great recession of 07-09, many including ourselves thought a new natural (higher) rate of unemployment might be in the cards.

Given a decade of history in the books since the start of the great recession, a more clear and somewhat surprising answer has occurred. Look for a detailed review next week.

Eclipse20170823_001200000_iOS

What a neat experience to see the Eclipse this week… of course with appropriate protective eyewear. Nice picture Sophia..

While not sure if it is the summer season or the magnitude of the eclipse across the country … no matter, the capital markets almost came to a screeching halt, at least in trading during the afternoon of the eclipse.

There truly are humans behind those trading machines still .. see our AI review here too for more insights.

Good bye Summer – Last day of Freedomend-of-summer-1-1235145

According to my just about fourth and seventh graders, freedom comes to a halt today, as next week starts the school year grind for them…

  • Early to bed
  • Early to rise
  • Standard schedules –
  • Homework
  • Friends and fun

Doesn’t sound all that bad … only 180 more days to go! Ouch … Oh well!

That is all next week … and today is a Friday heading into the last weekend of freedom … I Guess?? (haha) Enjoy!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

Start of the Week Good Economic Data

Let’s start this week out with a review of  some good economic numbers to fluff us all up as we start this wonderful week !

Latest Economic Numbers

Unemployment Claims down

Jobs, jobs jobs… With jobs, a happier consumer may help push the Economy forward.

10-14-16-employment-numbers

Nice trend….let’s say it is down… which is great as these are Unemployment claims.

Expected End of the Year Sales

The National Retail Federation publishes an annual forecast each year for the big enchilada end of the year sales. Recall, Black Friday was coined because many institutions, in the old days, turned their first profit “Black”  the day after Thanksgiving aka Black Friday.

In their most recent annual end of the year forecast the NRF expects nice growth…

10-3-16-nrf-2016-eoy-sales-forecast

ANOTHER nice trend… looks good, on the high end of recent year over year growth!

Bank Lending Picks Up – Not Kidding

This super chart from Scott Grannis shows banks are beginning to lend as the far right end of the chart shows Excess Bank Reserves peeling off into our economy !

10-12-16-excess-reserves-grannis-fed-reserve

All in all, some really good news for a cheerie good Monday and start of your week !

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

Economic Report Update – Somber Friday in Dallas

As we had mentioned earlier when an odd economic report occurred, we noted it likely inaccurate. Today the report for the most recent month was released and it looks like the two will cross each other out – we will discuss in greater detail shortly.

Somber Friday

We were stunned at the shooting here in our home town of Dallas Texas last night. Our office is not close to downtown, and thankfully our friends in that area are safe and sound as well as ourselves. Thanks to all of those who reached out to us!

We send the best wishes to the victims and the families of those who lost their lives or were injured in the shooting. So sorry this occurred!

Have a thankful and blessed weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com