Tag Archives: Us Election

Thoughts on the Capital Markets Reactions as they Relate to Different Election Results

If you followed our writings for any length of time at all you notice a clear absence of political discussions!

We’ve had multiple visits on market reactions and wanted to clarify here publicly, without political comments of course.

Possible Market Reactions to Differing Election Outcomes

What follows is a carefully written, candid explanation of what we think the Capital Markets may do under several scenarios.

Insert your own probabilities of outcomes so that you may have an expectation of how Markets MAY react.

In order of our estimates of most disruptive to least disruptive:

Hanging Chads – No one is elected and a lengthy battle ensues – In our minds, most Market disruptive – Participants dislike uncertainty

Clean Sweep Either Direction – This may surprise you, but participants generally favor a partial party political holding

Partial Party Holding = Inferred from the points above – Partial party holding in either direction is likely least market disruptive

There you have it, maybe some surprises …. but our thoughts on possible market reactions … no guarantees of course, but in fielding a few questions, we thought others may like to hear as well!

Have a Great “Elections Market Movement” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.



More Reflections from 2016…Shortest Light Day of the Year

Ok, so the reminiscing is still going on. In our Q1 2017 Newsletter, coming to a mailbox near you soon, we take time to reflect on what a zany year it was… from all angles… As a preview, but not to steal the thunder, here are a few of the points !

Slow Start:

Talk about out of the starting gates bad. World capital markets finally tugged the large company US markets down, taking the S&P 500 down 15% and oil to under $30 a barrel in mid-February.



Surely Britain would stay in the European Union, the polls were showing as high as a 90% probability that they would. As the votes were tallied, something strange occurred as the Brits did in fact vote to leave the EU.

US Election:

The polls would once again miss big as the election results rolled in and a surprise candidate was nominated president.

Federal Reserve Raises Rates:

Mid December marked the day the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) raised rates from .25% to .50%. Markets yawned, even as the FOMC signaled they expected three more rate increases during 2017. It has been a race to see who moved to the back of the papers faster, Tony Romo or the FOMC!

Shortest Day of the Year

With an outdoor family that spends a lot of time on the Tennis courts…..as well as other outdoor activities, today’s shortest light day of the year comes with as much cheer as the Holidays!

Have a Great “Reminiscent-Shortest Light” day !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.