…”Yellen painted a gloomy picture of the domestic and global economies. Global markets, in a seasonally weak period, acted gloomy, dropping double digits as a whole for the quarter….”
While we don’t like to brag BUT …. Yellen and company (Federal Open Market Committee) have been saying recently the economy is now going along good enough to raise rates — go figure — HAPPY MARKETS !!
Speaking of Happy – Next week we have a hilarious post on Monday and then …… your Wednesday post will be a repeat of our most popular – all original – one take video, that of course has had more views than any other!
Hope you can hold your breath that long — haha !
See all who are able at the Party on Sunday – If your schedule just opened, let us know, we will fit you in!
Ray Dalio, renowned investor, recently produced and narrated an excellent 30 minute economic review video and research paper (300 pages) to go along with it.
Being a bit skeptical at first, after watching the video, I found it worth every second of the 30 minutes spent doing it. My 8 and 10 year old even found interest — well so they told me!
Twitter is one of my favorite resources due to the fast data and succinct information. Unfortunately on Friday mid afternoon, I was very surprised at how fast the terrible tragedy in Paris news spread. Maybe too fast.
Best wishes, prayers, and condolences, to the family members.
August has come and gone. Say goodbye to the warm weather in most parts, hello to fall, and …. are you ready for some FOOTBALL. (Glass can always be half full!)
Newbies to our writings, we do this monthly and even include a video for an extra personal touch. Each month we strive to bring you a neat Financial Planning tip that may help you save or earn, this months is once again directly from the trenches. … So let’s get started.
…Bond investors tend to be more risk averse than equity investors, and thus reposition earlier in response to a higher probability of a market selloff. This is in part because they are more focused on the macroeconomic picture, and in part because bonds have a different risk-reward profile: They ultimately pay only their face value, whereas stocks can keep going up.….
In English … Lower bond yields warrant special attention … We have LOWER yields. We plan on digging deeper into this next month, but for now .. Attention is very warranted.
Special Goodbye to Robin Williams
Depression hits most at least once in their life. If you know someone who may be on the edge, take the cue from one of the funniest person’s ever and get them help. Mr. Williams you will be missed nano nano !
Here is your May 2014 video review. The year continues to fly as next month marks the half way point. For those new to our work, this is our monthly review of economic and financial events highlighted by a monthly financial planning tip and a video to liven it up a bit….. Here we go !
With the return of a growing economy, this years vacation expectations are one of the best on record. Airlines, hotels, and all of the travel industry have taken note and are ready. Past the great recession, lesser availability of all resources has driven costs much higher, especially for those waiting until the last-minute.
Planning as far in advance as possible and making use of our favorite sites may help cushion the blow/expense:
Homeaway.com
Kayak.com
Travelocity.com
Compare all airlines, recently even Virgin a premium carrier was caught running low cost fairs
No one says a vacation has to be expensive to be fun!
The Elephant in the room … Interest Rates Of Course
It is said on Wall Street fixed income (bonds) are always smarter than equity investors (stocks). Much of this stems from fixed income investors only worry about the return in the income, not much else.
I will leave you with this interesting chart from JPMorgan (Possible recession signal) …. Part of the reason we are watching so close.
Welcome to our monthly review of the latest events of the last four weeks. With the tax season being so rough and fresh on our minds, we start with a much-needed tax related Financial Planning Tip.
This months Financial Planning was once again straight from the field and this time from a relative.
Those using Schedule A, receive the benefit of deducting a pre-set amount of sales taxes based on your income, zip, and number of exemptions OR using your actual sales tax that you have paid over the year.
If you didn’t save all your receipts, you can still choose to claim state and local sales taxes. You could fill out the worksheet and use the optional general sales tax tables in the Instructions for Schedule A (Form 1040) , but why not take the easy routeand use the Sales Tax Deduction Calculator!
Take note of that friendly last comment from the IRS. Most of the time the easy route is probably best, however if you have any of the following, consider double checking your “easy route” amount versus your paid:
Car Purchase, boat, aircraft or lease vehicle
Substantial additional renovation of home
Unusually large taxable purchase of any kind
Easily accessible receipts (often via debit cards or other easily traceable sources)
Capital Markets, Gold, or Rates ?
Recently I challenged a group as to what they thought were the most important item currently, choosing from the Dow, Gold or interest rates.
Hands down, interest rates. This is the 10 year treasury rate, seen hovering over the voodoo chart line.
We are watching this closely as we just do not know why it is persistently staying so low. Late in April the FOMC lowered their bond purchases by another $10 billion monthly. Recall these purchases were to keep rates down. Doh… Seems as if rates do not know they should be rising.
In this post we review the top Economic, Financial and Market happenings from the most recent month and include a short video that details our thinking. A new additions to our Monthly review, straight from the trenches is our Hot Financial Planning Tip of the Month.
Hot FInancial Planning tip of the month: 401k/Pre-Tax Retirement account funding
There are right and wrong ways to fill that pre-tax retirement plan. This month’s tip comes from repeated trenches discussions and adjustments that go along with the turning of the calendar to a new year.
Spread the contributions as evenly as possible. AKA Dollar Cost averaging. You may be tempted to fill that 401k early for cash flow or other reasons. Resist it, we argue an even contribution reaching your maximums as late in the year as possible (see our Tax Cheat sheet here for 2014 IRS limits) works best in the long run.
You may need to exclude your bonus or other unusual cash flow event to hit your max late in the year. If you have questions, please reach out to us as we run these calculation frequently.
Side note and special extra tip (ok….a little cheesy but bear with us)
New 401ks in almost all cases should be a beast of aggression (click for our Beastly logic article) as your contributions make up the majority of your account, so be aggressive and welcome market maham, it will be better for your balance in the long run.
Non Farm Payroll — Two Strikes
The December report (January release) was expected near 200k and came in at 74k (wiff and a miss). The January report released in February, was 125k with the street looking for 180k. We have two strikes, and so far capital markets are happily ignoring this news. We will breathe much easier with a positive report later this week, due March 7, 2014.
Interest Rate Voodoo
Interest rates are so important, they have begun play opossum. We have tossed up a few fancy trend lines in order to help clarify their final movement. A break up or down MAY lead to accelerated movement. Even if you do not believe in the chart Voodoo, others do, adding pressure at these eventual break points. (Momentum in a sporting event…can’t see it, but it exists.)
The Year of the Buyout
With a SLOW Growing economy, both in earnings and especially Sales (top line.) This may be the year of the buyout. If you cannot build it, buy it. This is fine with us and represents an increase in confidence which is what we need moving forward. We will keep you updated as we progress through the year, but at this time it appears mergers/buy outs are going to be very popular this year.
It totally beats me as to why a you tube video sent via email would be so hard to get working, but like a sock in the washer, it vanishes frequently.
Video Absent From October Update Email notification
In Monday’s post, the video did not come through on the email notification, but worked just fine on the actual article here and the Video tab here. The November Video will be sent multiple ways, we promise.
The cup overfloweth
Some weeks it is tough to write and others, like right now, I have so much to talk about it is hard to get it all in. Sorry for the extra articles this week….but…but …. I just could not help it. Coming soon, updates on Wire Fraud, Reverse Repos, Secret FOMC tradition that may extend Fed easing, death and account access….just to name a few….
Ahhhh but that is next week, and this is a Friday. Which brings me to the hopeful slaying of the 4 hour 26.2 beast. Fingers crossed for body togetherness and low lactic acid build up on Monday.
Don’t forget to spend time with those special in your life….time is going fast…Thanksgiving will be here before we know it!
Have a Great Day and thanks for reading, see you next week!!
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial advisor prior to investing!
Background
The is the vocal portion of J.K. Financial, Inc. a Dallas Texas Based Fee Only Total Wealth Financial Planning Firm. Founded by John Kvale, a Dallas Texas Fee only Financial Planner and Total Wealth Manager.
Happy Fed = Happy Markets — Next week two funny posts including our most popular Video EVER
As we mentioned in our Newsletter and our Quarterly Report cover page :
While we don’t like to brag BUT …. Yellen and company (Federal Open Market Committee) have been saying recently the economy is now going along good enough to raise rates — go figure — HAPPY MARKETS !!
Speaking of Happy – Next week we have a hilarious post on Monday and then …… your Wednesday post will be a repeat of our most popular – all original – one take video, that of course has had more views than any other!
See all who are able at the Party on Sunday – If your schedule just opened, let us know, we will fit you in!
Have a Great Weekend!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225
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Posted in Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments
Tagged FOMC, Happy, Raise Rates, Video, Yellen