This week a funny thing happened … on the yield curve that is, garnering a lot of attention. Those following our writings, here, here, and here, know we are watching for an inverted yield curve since it has a good predictive nature for recessions – a topic for another discussion. Heck, even Kent Smetters, the Wharton co-host professor mentioned the yield curve had inverted.
Inverted Yield Curve? Kinda!
Here is a good picture of a normal yield curve
Inversion occurs when the short term rate goes higher than the long term rate i.e. the 2 year greater than the 10 or even more clearly, the 90 day rate greater than the 10 year…
What happened this week were the 2 and 5 year yields, slightly inverting –
Does this count?
Maybe? BUT the real predictability is from the afore mentioned short and long, not short and slightly longer short…
Here is the 2 and 10’s, followed by the 90 day and 10’s
It may invert, and we will let you know when it happens, if it happens, but for now, in our minds ….
No inversion yet, but we are watching close!
Have a Great “Not Inverted Yet” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP