The fact that so many US investors, including ourselves, will be watching the various elections overseas is as interesting as the elections themselves, and points to how small the world has become.
This weekend France, Germany, Italy, and Greek citizens enter the polls to set their political wishes in motion. I find it interesting these countries have a weekend vote, which may help the turn out, not a bad idea, but I digress.
France’s current chief Sarkozy, is facing a formidable foe and according to Robert McTeer will most likely not make it as a return leader. If this happens, austerity measures changes may be at hand.
An Italian vote is hopeful to reinforce confidence for Mario Monti, who took over in November from the scandal ridden Berlusconi chair. This vote, if correctly forecasted should be a stabilizer.
A less important regional election in Germany, however if polling is correct the opponent to the current incumbent Merkel party will win, causing slight concerns as change may mean an adjustment in philosophy. This vote, if correct is more a hairline crack in the ice, but worth keeping an eye on.
A Greek parliament vote could expedite this little brother’s country’s exit from the Euro. (On a side note, yesterday in an all day seminar a very well-known international debt portfolio manager called the break up of the Euro within 3 years.)
As you know we are not politically inclined, but as the many moving parts begin to churn this weekend, we will be interested in the reactions from market participants. While something similar to the Oscar’s may be more entertaining, market participants, including ourselves will be focused on the above voting!
Have a Great Weekend!
JK
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