Author Archives: John Kvale CFA, CFP

Reminder… No mandatory RMD’s- (Required Minimum Distributions) this year … Finally, Our Most Popular Video EVER, that also is a Family Blooper – HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

After fielding several calls in the last week or so about Required Minimum Distributions (RMD’s) We wanted to remind everyone that due to our current situation all required minimum distributions have been waived for this year.

That does not mean that you cannot take funds out if you have a need or a want. This also does not cause us to have a double distribution next year, pretty much the best of both worlds, elective distribution if desired not mandatory if not wanted!

HAPPY THANKSGIVING Blooper

The most popular video ever was one that was literally almost a comedic uncut repeat attempt when the kids were much younger

Here is what they look like today…

Here is what they look like then, with your authors best attempts of trying to do a serious video – What eventually happened is an upload of all of the attempts much like you would see at the end of a movie or blooper!

Hope you enjoy likely the last year that we will show this, but we’ve said that for the last two or three years just too much fun especially given my seriousness and their lack of seriousness!

HAPPY THANKSGIVING

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Last Year the Perot Museum, Next Year Dallas Athletic Club, This Year No Holiday Party, Staying Safe

Last year we had the 24th Annual J.K. Financial, Inc. Holiday Party at a place that we had always desired to go but the newness and the cost of that newness had prevented us.

Finally an early date allowed us the ability to have the Annual Holiday Party at the much desired Perot Museum. Little did we know that we would not be having a party this year making last year‘s memory all the more special.

For the safety of our selves and of others we are not having a party this year.

We know that that may disappoint some but out of an abundance of caution and being conservative in all facets of what we do, we are not going to have the holiday party this year.

The good news is as we will certainly have a wonderful and much appreciated party at Dallas Athletic Club if possible next year!

True to many things in life we grow to appreciate them much more when they’ve been snatched from us. We look forward to the exhaustion that follows visiting with everyone and seeing everyone and will embrace the closeness of getting to see everyone like we’ve never done in the past 2 1/2 decades.

Be Safe and We Look Forward to Seeing EVERYONE Next Year!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

J.K. Financial, Inc. D Magazine Best Wealth Manager Award … John Kvale 14th Consecutive D Magazine Best Financial Planner Award

For those in the Dallas area, you may want to pick up this month’s edition of D Magazine…..

J.K. Financial, Inc. Announced as Best Wealth Manager D Magazine Recipient

This is a peer nomination process and vetting by industry professionals and approved by the editors.

But look carefully on page 35 rather than the center fold as we insisted on going with a different, more casual … and in our minds appropriate picture… and statement.

Not confiding in the more formal picture pushed us to a different section…once again well worth it in our minds.

John Kvale Fourteenth Consecutive Best Financial Planner

It’s an honor to once again be nominated by peers and approved by editors as D Magazine’s Best Financial Planner for the fourteenth time in a row…

Thanks very much and congratulations to my peers who also were nominated.

Wow time flies !

Have a Great ‘D Magazine Honored’ Day and Wonderful Weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

More Good News on the Vaccine Front, Second Possible Vaccine from Moderna … Recalling Peter Diamandis Thoughts

Early on during the onset of the virus, Peter Diamandis which we wrote about here, and here, confidently said not only would there be a vaccine but there would be multiple vaccines.

One thing Diamandis missed on his estimate would be a 50% to 75% cure rate but a cocktail of vaccines combination in order to get the cure rate much higher.

Early last week Pfizer‘s announcement of an approximate 90% cure rate was one upped early this week by Moderna.

Moderna claims almost 94% cure rate

In this press release by fellow drug research and manufacturing firm Moderna their initial trials claim a possible near 94% cure rate.

Of course these are early Stage III trials but on top of the earlier Pfizer news from last week this is very exciting.

One additional positive on the Moderna over the Pfizer is their initial thoughts are the vaccine does not have to be kept at the extreme low temperature as the Pfizer trials.

In a glass is half full fashion if Diamandis correct we should expect even more vaccines to have positive curate and to be available in the market sooner rather than later.

The Future Is Really Brighter than We Think!

Have a “Vaccine is On the Way’ Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Yet ANOTHER Awesome Tracking Find… Indeed Jobs Indexes, 118 Total, Global and Domestic

We are not sure if these have been around for some time, have been created for the current situation, or are just finding our eyes….

But we like them…

First it was the TSA Throughput numbers, which we find extremely interesting in following and tracking air passenger travel, here is our latest post.

Then we stumbled upon the Kastle, back to office working tracker, here, which of all things, is a security firm at its roots, but has created a fascinating graph of office occupancy in the largest 10 cities….

Meet our latest find…

Indeed Job Posting Indexes

In true nerd like fashion, we have reviewed, in Pavlov’s dog fashion (major drooling) all 118, yep … one hundred and eighteen different indexes from Indeed.

This data comes from Indeed’s two research sites https://www.hiringlab.org/ and the raw data site https://github.com/hiring-lab/data , all of this is put together in our favorite St Louis Federal Reserve FRED website.

Here is the link to the FRED website and all 118 Indeed indexes. Multiple Countries and major cities and states included….   

These are job postings, created by Indeed and in terrific format.

Click on Chart for Huge Version or Here for my Fred Data Page Directly continual updated

We find it very interesting the variances by country. Germany is the most shallow of the drop-off in job postings … with the UK oddly being the deepest, and of note, Australia suddenly having an increase to take the lead as of late in the closest to be back to normal.

Indeed Texas Indexes

Here is a more specific regional job postings tracking of the state of Texas and cities, Austin, Dallas Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio.

Here is a link to my data page on FRED or click on Chart for Huge Version

San Antonio, the clear winner, with postings only down 7.9% from early year, our guess was Austin due to it’s high tech influence (wrong!) and the loser so far … Houston, lagging down almost 20% which makes sense due to Oil Dependency.

We will add this to our following and update posts and look forward to researching other areas of the Country/World as well as watching these continue!

Have a Great “Indeed Job Postings World Review” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Vaccine Announcement and Capital Market Reaction Thoughts … Masters Weekend … Friday

After fielding a few curious questions on the market’s reaction to the vaccine news of Monday, we thought we would briefly give you our view of the possibilities.

As we had mentioned a few times here and here Capital Markets were likely a bit over their skis. Smartly and good in our minds after an incredibly positive reaction to the vaccine news Monday market participants realized where they were with relation to earnings and likely cooled their jets.

Said another way … had we been much lower we maybe would have had a much stronger rally but being ahead of ourselves it may have tempered higher market valuations.

One Month SPX R2K

Specific industries such as travel and leisure, left for dead by many, did see significant increases, albeit from extremely low levels.

Masters Weekend

For the first time the Masters a stately golf tournament in Georgia is being played in the fall. Known as one of the most elegant golf courses and well-manicured it will be interesting to watch a Sunday conclusion under much different fall colors

But today is a Friday heading into a mid-November weekend and wonderful day in our neck of the woods getting cooler but nice fall/autumn temperatures!

Enjoy and talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Kaplan Town Hall Review … Second Most Recent FOMC Update Meeting Last Week… Procrastination Leads to Lucky Update

As mentioned in our embarrassing post here recently The Dallas Federal Reserve had a Town Hall meeting with special guest speaker Dallas federal president reserve Robert Kaplan.

One of our favorite things to do is listen to people like Robert Kaplan in less public venues in order to try and get their candid or less guarded opinions.

This will make the 10th article talking about Kaplan and as such you may notice that we are pretty big fans.

Kaplan Town Hall Candid Comments

What was interesting about this town Hall meeting was that Kaplan for the first time since his tenure at the FOMC dissented about the federal reserves decision due the fact the the FOMC made a three pronged approach for their interest rate movement decisions.

What do we mean? In the released report from the FOMC chaired by Jerome Powell but with Robert Kaplan a voting member at the meeting they released the following unique statement

1. We intend on having interest rates lower for longer – In Kaplan’s opinion and ours, that was enough

2. We will keep interest rates lower even if inflation ticks up – this is the comment that Kaplan had an issue with and we do as well as we have written multiple times ( here here here and here ) that inflation may actually raise its head , Kaplan agreed!

3. Until a very lower rate of unemployment. is established we will also wait to raise rates

That’s just too many strings to attach to the FOMC and to especially hand over to future decisions makers!

Kaplan, during the Town Hall Event

Maybe the reason we like Kaplan so much is he seems to think very much like we do and have similar concerns. By attaching these three points together future Federal Reserve board members are being bound by a multi point limitation that could cause problems. What if one of these points gets dramatically above target but another is not thereby limiting the increase in interest rates?

Kaplan … like us, believes that there is a time in the not too distant future where interest rates will need to be raised and normalized not only for inflation limitations but also for industries that rely on higher interest rates.

Kaplan also mentioned that low interest rates for too long of a period of time may cause people to take greater risks than they otherwise would.

Lastly, Kaplan once again seeing eye to eye with our beliefs, said that low interest rates for too long of a period of time becomes not only helpful but a stimulus that is unneeded once the economy gets rolling.

Time will tell but once again we like Kaplan’s thoughts on higher interest rates potentially sooner rather than later but likely a year or so out!

Updated Thoughts From More Recent FOMC Statement

So time flew past us on getting this post to you, but in true making Lemonade out of Lemons fashion, something neat occurred….

Our Procrastination lead to a Lucky Update!

Last week, the FOMC released their latest statement here and guess what?

No strings like the prior meeting, just simple slow economy stuff and, Kaplan voted FOR the opinion… no dissenting this time.

Maybe the FOMC members have already backed down from their prior “Strings Attached” discussion!

Have a Great “Kaplan FOMC” Update!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Sun on the Horizon … Possible Vaccine … Possible Sigh of Relief

There are multiple reports out this AM that Pfizer along with a biotech partner have discovered a Vaccine that is up to 90% effective in curing infected participants.

Here is the actual press release directly from the company, for your viewing.

Being released from such a large and credible company gives this news legs. There may be disappointments, but the company mentions in the release a goal of selling the vaccine by the end of the month,

This is fast breaking news, but of course very, very good news and may have ripple effects around the world.

A large sigh of relief along with the possibility of returning to some type of normalcy may be in the cards…

Let’s hope this turns out to be accurate and available as they say….if so, we can all mark our calendars, as this may be a very important day, now and in the future!

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Applicable Old Wall Street Saying for this Week … Friday

There is an old Wall Street saying – and you guys that have been following us for any length of time know we love these old Wall Street sayings seconded only by Yogi Berra isms … digressing …

The old Wall Street saying

“Capital Markets will do what hurts the most people most of the time!”

It makes sense when everybody or at least some power players are leaning one direction it’s almost inevitable that the markets may squirm the other direction just out of too many crowding on the same side … and it’s quite possible there were a lot of heavy hitters braced for a big downside this week .

When that didn’t happen they may have had to change their positions possibly forcing markets in an upward direction .

Re-posturing market movements are not as healthy as Economic and Earnings driven markets.

Might be forced moves causing false movements … just saying!

Unlike us to talk about the capital markets so much lately … and even politics as it relates to markets … we thought it worth a little snippet here, back to more macro next week …..

Friday Post Halloween Heading for Thanksgiving

Ahhh … Today is a Friday heading into an early November Weekend, with Halloween behind us and getting closer to Thanksgiving ! Gobble Gobble – maybe the family video Blooper (Our most popular video ever …. tease tease – hey who could not use and extra chuckle this year) will make one last stand – many newbies may get a kick…heck I chuckle very time, even with so many views under the belt!

Have a Great Day enjoy your Friday and your Weekend !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Interesting Consumer Purchasing Item… Upon Review, Makes Total Sense!

As you may know we have found several interesting items to follow this year….

First was the TSA throughput, measuring the upward trend in traffic passing through TSA security … here, here and here

Then we stumbled upon the Kastle back to work index, showing commercial office vacancy rates of the ten largest cities – interesting Kastle is a security monitoring company among other things, but hence the ability to share the data.

Used Auto Prices

Recently through the grapevine we heard stories of used auto purchase increases, which make sense as folks exit the larger metro areas and possibly avoid crowded public transportation …

So here is a longer dated chart …

Let’s look a little closer …magnifying the most recent activity

So this is the Price Index for Used Cars and Trucks from the St. Louis Fed (FRED) database….

Surprising at first, but upon second thought…. not surprising at all !

We will keep track, and hope you find it maybe just a little bit as interesting as we do!

Have a Great “Used Car and Truck Flying off the shelf” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents