Author Archives: John Kvale CFA, CFP

Presidents Day Reminder … Olympics .. Sentimental Friday …

In honor of President’s day, next Monday the 19th is a government, Capital Market, bank and Post office Holiday … Our office will be closed as well…presidents-day-3079810__340

After a huge Mid-Week Capital Market Post, we are going to keep this one short and sweet.

Olympics

Hopefully you have been watching the Winter Olympics as much as we have. Congrats to all the men and women who have worked so hard to put themselves in such an honorable position.

Only a sporting event could unite two countries that have been at odds for so long.

Here is to wishing they remain friend for all of our well being after the event.

Sentimental Friday

Maybe it was the Valentines Day with the kids and seeing just how fast they grow. Maybe it is the winding down of Cathy as our office manager after 10 years. (She is retiring shortly.) Maybe it is the long weekend without tennis and good family time. Maybe it is the shadow of anther spring about to bloom.

No matter what, maybe its a good time to take a moment to give thanks for all the great things we have and get to experience.

Have a Great Weekend … Back to business next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

Test and Re-Test ? Where Oh where are Capital Markets going? This likely will take some time …. Weeks for sure and likely Months? … We will need Patience!

After a long lethargic flat-lined Capital Market of 2017, things have finally changed, and we need to begin to get used to more normal Capital Markets.

What follows are details of what the Capital Markets have done over the last few days (yes only days) …  what we should expect moving forward, along with a review of similar historical movement. Given a future that Rhymes with the past, the most important point we want to get across is this —

What we want everyone to understand is it is highly likely we do not just bounce right back and go to highs again quickly, so let’s have patience and set our expectations for an extended Capital Market search for the most appropriate level.

Ok, so you have the most likely scenario, here is why.

Current Capital Market Review

Suddenly the Capital Markets cared about something — and were WAY ahead of themselves, so they began going down!

We thought they might stop at our fancy trend line from our early post on this subject.

2-3-18-spx-w-trendlines-and-jk-notes.jpg

Nope …. participants pushed on past the trend line.

2-12-18 SPX Trendline

Participants decided the 200 Moving Day Average was where they should stop …

 

2-13-18 SPX hits 200 MDA

So we have a stopping spot, what happens next may be best seen by looking at the past for a possible rhyming future.

2016 Rhyme

The first drop was about 24 trading days followed by another 20-25 day test in a few months.

Start to finish about six months with a move all the way back to even before a second drop.

2-11-18 2016 SPX -010% Moves

2012 Rhyme

With two hiccups during this 2012  time frame, again our weekly charts show a 2-4 months of capital market footing discovery ….

2-11-18 2012 SPX Draw downs 10%

 

Let’s settle in for more normal, but what feels like “Rockier” times, which will likely be with us for a while.

  • Economy is Good
  • Global recovery is beginning
  • Interest Rates are Rising but at a reasonable rate
  • Consumers are feeling good

Patience will reward us!

Happy “Patience” Valentine’s day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Taxes … the 1099, Tests – Re-Tests … Tennis … Enjoy Your Weekend

A large wave of 1099’s have just been released and are on their way to your mailbox even if you have electronic delivery of all other items…

While less frequent than in past years, corrected 1099’s do occur….

We would be careful in filing your taxes at least until the first corrected round occurs… which will be a few weeks!

Test and Re-Test

The Capital Markets are trying to figure out what level they should be at. As mentioned earlier this week, we got WAY ahead of ourselves…

There have been some silly products that have also caused extra movement in the capital markets as well.

While it is hard to believe, given the journey, we are currently very near where we started the year, BUT because we went up too far and now back down AND because it is human nature for un-comfort to feel much stronger than comfort, it feels much worse.

2-8-18 SP X

 

More on this in greater detail next week.

No travels this weekend as the Tournament is here.. yaa.. our own bed and home cooked food!!

Have a Great Friday and Wonderful Weekend…. See ya next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

SpaceX Falcon Heavy Launch … Innovator or Disrupter — Elon Musk Part 2 of 3 …

Whew… we had great feedback from Part 1 of Elon Musk and Tesla …Thanks for all the great comments…

Break In – We just had to add yesterdays launch of the SpaceX Heavy Lift off-

Pay special attention to Elon’s Tesla coming out of the shuttle at the 25 minute mark AND the incredible rockets landing on a targeted pad at the 30 minute mark … fast forward if you do not have time for the entire video, the rocket landing is INCREDIBLE ! And yes, that is a David Bowie song playing when they begin orbit!

 

 

Here is Part 2 for your Viewing!

Tesla Part 2 -rise-of-tesla-part-2-infographic

Have a Great “Innovative Tesla” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

Let’s Pace Ourselves … Whoa Market Whoa … Points Versus Percent Reminder

Most of our Posts are a work in progress for 3-5 business days prior (at least, many take months) till the actual post. We started our theme of Too fast of a Pace way before the Capital Markets started pulling back the reins. We left the title on this post as an odd coincidence of good timing!

One quick note before we start.

Points Versus Percentage

It has been a LOONG time since we have had a meaningful pause in the capital markets.

While we watch all indexes but not the Dow Jones as much, we do understand that this index is one of the most watched. “The Market” in most circles means the Dow Jones .. such the reminder.

As the Dow Jones Index has risen over the last few years, a percentage move has become a greater number of Points.

Today a 2% move is around 500 Dow Points. At the lows of the great recession of 07-09 a 500 point move would have been near an 8% move … just a friendly reminder to keep things in perspective.

Whoa Baby Whoa

Don’t get us wrong, we like growth, but just like starting a long distance race too fast, this year started too fast … proving even too much of a good thing, is still too much !

2-2-18 SPX w JK Notes and Trendlines

The first white trend line is a high double digit (~20%) annual growth line … unsustainable in itself over a longer period. The second “Super Aggressive is an approximate 40% annual rate, only to be out done by the third trend line which is over a 60% annual clip. This last line is 3x an aggressive pace … clearly unsustainable!

It would not surprise us to rest a while … a much needed rest that is.

Oh, we have plenty of excuses (rates, hot economic numbers, Fed Reserve talk) but we think the unsustainable pace was the key

Have a Great “Paced” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

 

Pacing Ourselves Preview, A Runners Perspective …Where did January Go? …Friday

In one of the first longer runs, a 1/2 Marathon (13.2 miles) many years ago…. The Cardinal sin of a new longer distance running was made….

Starting too fast !

There is a saying in running, for every minute you go out too fast, you will lose two coming back.

Next week we will take a detailed look to see if the Capital Markets may have started this year’s race too fast!

2-1-18 SP 500 year chart

Speaking of pacing ourselves …. Wow, January went fast .. Slow it down !

Today is a Friday heading into a late Winter weekend with Tennis Travels on the horizon .. Enjoy your weekend, talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com