Author Archives: John Kvale CFA, CFP

Sending Best and Safe wishes to the Many Friends and Families of Florida … And those in the continued path of IAN

As many of you know, a favorite backdrop at home, office … heck almost any time are the Live YouTube Webcams of around the country….

With a special emphasis on the soothing Ocean live camera’s…

Almost all Ocean Camera’s are of Florida and the passing of Hurricane IAN ….

Hearing from most but not all of our Favorite Floridians….

We are sending Best Wishes, Safety and our most important thoughts to you as you go through the tough aftermath of Hurricane IAN and those that may be in the future path …

Have a Safe Friday and Good weekend – Talk Next week and let’s try to stay out of the way of Mother Nature!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Q4 2022 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Slowdown Time to Clear, Ben Hunt Narratives, Peter Zeihan Global thoughts … Video Audio Podcast Review ! By John Kvale CFA, CFP …

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q4 2022 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

Q 4 2022 Newsletter

(YouTube)

Patience – Real Slowdowns take a while to clear

Bear Markets about 20 months

Slowdowns average about 14 months

Narratives by Ben Hunt

With the news being the worst near the tail end of a slowdown, after crossing paths with Ben over five times, we thought it a great time to review some of his thoughts and research…

The Missionary Statement or Strong Direct Narrative

Ben and his partner theorized that Missionary statements once saved for Oval Office wartime speeches or the like are now used in part due to the way we consume our information by almost everyone, leading to an overload possibly of missionary or breaking news like headlines and narratives.

The possible effect of strong missionary statements or narratives, again Ben theorizes is that when there is the need for a very strong subject matter or narrative, if we are not careful we have become desensitized to things because of the possible dramatization of other headlines and narratives that it’s not taken serious. Said simply, the boy who cried wolf

“Why am I reading this, and why am I reading it now?”

Dr. Hunt mentions that they have actually had a number of news organizations and authors directly communicate with he and his partner in order to make sure or check that they are not accidentally using a narrative, which is a fantastic possible change moving forward

Peter Zeihan – Russian Ukraine Thoughts – Demographics made It Now or Never

With regards to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Peter theorizes that this is a recapture of multiple ports of invasion that Russia has given up over the past many decades. He also mentions that because of poor demographics the Russian invasion was an absolute necessity sooner rather than later due too an aging population

Interest Rate Thoughts

“The Federal Reserve led by Jerome Powell, has long wanted to get rates up to a more normalized level”   For the record this has been a known goal in the halls of Wall Street and the Federal Reserve for that matter.

Peter goes on, “Seems to be a feeling from the Fed Officials, that if a recession is going to happen anyway, let’s get our toolkit back of a higher interest rates!”

Talk to you after the turn of the calendar !l!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Reviewing a Sept 23, 2020 Prior Post and FOMC Statement – “Inflation is the Enemy!”

Over the weekend (no jog as an early Saturday walk with dog through the local college campus garnered a huge stubbed toe from a protruding curb….cannot make this up … digressing) a long ago post about the FOMC and their main enemy entered the frontal lobe…

Our September 23, 2020 Post – Federal Reserve Enemy – Inflation

“The Fed, Economics, Interest Rates and Interest Rates Review Part 2 What would force the FEDs hand?

Posted on September 23, 2020 by John Kvale CFA, CFP | Leave a comment | Edit

Well covered in Part 1, here, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and Capital Markets also believe currently that interest rates will stay low for longer …. maybe we are hopeful they are both wrong (No maybe, we are!) but there is one word that we know the FOMC cannot allow to get out of control …

Inflation !

With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. From FOMC statement September 16, 2020″

The original post goes on the talk about the expansion of the balance sheet and the lack of inflation at the current time.

Fast forwarding to today, the balance sheet is unwinding and there certainly are higher inflation numbers…

If the Fed sticks to it’s word, their fears may justify continued pressure to slow an already slowing economy!

Hang tight, we have your back, but bumps may be on the horizon!

Have a Great “Federal Reserve Replay” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Finally Use of Electronic Wallet … Time Saver as Jogging season kicks in … Friday before week of Travels

It’s Friday …. How about a non-financial … fun education personal experience …. Let’s go!

With a challenge from several friends for a half Marathon in the fall (13.2 miles) the jogging arm band for the cell in order to listen the afore mentioned podcasts is in full motion.

Most joggers, present party included hate ANY type of pockets, or any items that would bounce/chafing as the jog continues….. aka no wallet or cash or credit card !

Post a jog … in a familiar place the front of the grocery line and without a form of payment…. A mandated new transaction was on (hunger over technology embarrassment)

Meet the Cell Phone Wallet

The growling stomach and the few fellow shoppers over the shoulder mandated a Wallet payment attempt…. yaa yaa probably a lot of you already know this, but I bet a few were similar and only put their boarding pass in their Wallet….

Looks like this:

You can put more than just boarding passes… i.e. Payment Cards…

Pick the one you use and push the phone towards the checkout device (luckily this was a feature…sure not all devices have this) a face or code is entered on the cell ….. and boom, transaction completed (at least that is what happened, was the first!)

Speaking of Boarding Passes… Next week Garners (Happily) mid-week travels…. but always tethered by electronics ….

Talk next week – some from afar- but still talk!

Enjoy your Friday and weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Ben Hunt and Narratives … Shortened Article from just completed Newsletter

This is the time of the calendar that makes for A LOT of content in writing form…. thank goodness no writers block (For the record it has occurred)

The complete article is on the way to the printer, but came out so good … thought we would preview it here in shortened form!

Ben Hunt on Narratives

Ben theorizes that words are used to shape our behavior and as such he and Rusty, his business partner have a goal to identify when such events are occurring.

This is NOT a Fact Check, and not meaning that you as the reader will disagree or agree with them, only alerting to the fact that there may be some persuasion occurring in the narrative

The Missionary Statement or Strong Direct Narrative

Ben and his partner theorized that Missionary statements once saved for Oval Office wartime speeches or the like are now used in part due to the way we consume our information by almost everyone, leading to an overload possibly of missionary or breaking news like headlines and narratives.

The possible effect of strong missionary statements or narratives, again Ben theorizes is that when there is the need for a very strong subject matter or narrative, if we are not careful we have become desensitized to things because of the possible dramatization of other headlines and narratives that it’s not taken serious.

Comments from the Grant Williams Podcast

In the Podcast Grant mentions something Ben brought to his attention that he uses to decipher his in take of information. 

“Why am I reading this, and why am I reading it now?”

The gist of this is to be curious, or maybe slightly skeptical, but not pessimistic or negative, just having front of consciousness thought that maybe there is a slant or a narrative here that’s trying to persuade.

With Headlines being dramatic and very Negative during slowdowns, most notably very near the end of the slowdown…. a timely review!

Have a Great “Watch the Narrative Headlines” Day! Watch for the Newsletter Video for an Audio/Video/Podcast review of the article if you find it interesting!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Why Federal Express Comments were Taken so Negative …. Tentacles …

There are bell weather companies that have enough respect, when they speak the ripple effects are great. Last week Federal Express announced very negative earnings expectations and Wall Street took note.

Why Federal Express Caused Such Waves

Long time followers know we rarely speak of individual companies, but in this case wanted to explain the cause and effects of not only Federal Express but Capital Market movement post comments as well.

Here is what happened:

  • Federal Express cut earnings expectations by almost half
  • The new CEO says he expects “Worldwide Recession”
  • Cites dramatic slowdown near the end of the quarter

With tentacles across the globe and such strong words by the CEO, fear of contagion spread into markets.

Have a Great “Fed Ex” Cause and Effects Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Super Handy Computer Screenshot Feature … Friday

About a two years ago, the number one son (Pierce) after watching struggles on completing these posts, formatting problems incorrect file format….

“Want me to show you an easy way to get that chart into your post?”

Windows key, shift and S key all at the same time!

This puts your screen into a cropping copy mode and you just drag the mouse to what you want copied to the clipboard…

Looks like this … always use the crop mode, but in doing this post realized there is a lasso and full screen mode as well…

Brilliance!

A huge time saver!

Used every week and often multiple times weekly and frequently all in the office use as well!

Known as the Pierce Screen secret!

Another break from the Financial “Stuff” All bets are off for next week…. Newsletter gets more words this weekend too!

Have a good day, Friday and Weekend – talk next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Who Drinks the Most Beer? …. Visual Capitalist …

Almost hit you with …

“A hotter than expected CPI (Consumer Price Index) led market participant selling yesterday!”

Heck that is old news and news we expected and items we have been talking about a lot AND will talk about in our coming Newsletter….. We are prepared….

How about some fun?

Who Drinks the Most Beer?

From our favorite friends at Visual Capitalist

How about Per Capita

Go Czech republic go Wow! 28th Consecutive Winning Year…. Wow Wow!

Have a Great “Beer Consumption Informed” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Analyzing the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet … Interesting Analysis of MBS … Big Purchases … Big Sales

As mentioned Friday, there were a lot of words dictated, typed and researched over the weekend in preparation for the Q 4 Newsletter.

During some of the research, a stumble on to the follow chart occurred. Being totally unrelated to our Newsletter information, but very eye catching and interesting, a share was in order!

From our Friends at JPMorgan and their Market Insights Slide deck:

What is most striking to the eye, or at least our eyes, is the disproportionate amount of MBS (Mortgage Back Securities – think packs of Mortgages) the Federal Reserve purchased during this latest round of asset purchases.

This month the Federal Reserve has stated they are now pushing 97 Billion dollars of these assets back into the market, up from a prior mentioned 40 Billion monthly sale.

This may be a reason that Current Mortgage Rates are by almost any measure WAY to high, compared to their historical normal spreads between other similar assets.

Bottom line, the Federal Reserve likely over pushed rates low and they may be doing just the opposite now.

Just as eventually the sugar wears out, so will the salt of higher rates!

Have a Great “Had to Share a Neat Fed Chart” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Holiday Party Save the Date Re-reminder … The Newsletter Begins … Early Fall Friday …

26th Annual J.K. Financial, Inc. Holiday Party

Dallas Museum of Art

Saturday November 19th 2 pm meet and greet then tour until 5 pm closing

(Weekend before Thanksgiving)

Ok … those are some large font letters above…. but wanted to get your attention and have you pencil it in your calendar….

Newsletter

With a fast month end approaching due to holidays and the afore mentioned travels… this weekend the Newsletter begins. The subjects have been decided… couple of podcasts interviews and another slowdown reminder…but there are no words as of yet…. that ends this weekend….haha

EARLY Fall Friday

Are you ready for some Football ? Usually means fall is just around the corner…. and it is…

Have a Great Friday and super weekend – Will talk to you on the other side of an initial Newsletter Creation weekend !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents