The last several years marked double digit cyber invasive events through us and our friends and clients at the start of the year, peaking at tax time. Topping out at a new high last year with 12 invasive events.
This year we’re happy to announce that total threats were low single digits.
However, we did hear of a unique new trick from the tricksters worth noting.
The Social Security Trick
This year through our peer study groups we heard of one of the most clever Cyber tactics in recent memory. This Cyber attack involves signing up for your Social Security, but not being you, and depositing your Social Security into someone else’s account.
Bottom line if you receive ANYTHING from the Social Security thanking you for commencing your services for whatever reason, check into it may be fraudulent …. likely is if you have not had any interaction with the Social Security Administration!
Wish the thieves spent as much time working productive as they do destructively … the world would be a better place…… but we digress!
Have a Great Less Social Security Cyber Attacks Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
A Few Data Points on Current Valuations
Earlier this week a friend asked me about the recent volatility in Capital Markets … which by the way are really just going back to normal times ….
My Answer ….
“We got ahead of ourselves and valuations are a bit high!”
His comment …
“No way, earnings are good, markets cannot be overvalued!”
Let’s take a look and see for ourselves?
Check Points on Current Valuations
Price Earnings of the S&P 500
Currently 24 with a long term average of 15
Shiller or CAPE Price Earnings – 10 year average Price Earnings
Currently 32 with a long term average around 17
Price to Book Value
Currently 3.31 with a long term average of 2.75
So what does it all mean?
We are not WAY overvalued, overvalued compared to historical averages ….we are not cheap either …. but still maybe ahead of ourselves … leading to a good excuse for battle grounds and perceived volatility (again, really just back to the normal).
Want the Good News?
Right now earning are expected to grow about 15-20% this year. If they do, and the capital markets do not go up that much, (very likely) we are now less overvalued, and risk may be lower!
Bottom Line … Patience this year will be needed!
Have a Great “Valuation Updated” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
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Posted in Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments
Tagged CAPE Ratio, P/E Ratio, Price to Book, Valuation Update