Make it to Year 2030 and You will Likely Live Over Age 100 – From Mauldin SIC Conference

As noted with our excited post last week, we are once again in the throws of the John Mauldin SIC – Strategic Investment Conference.

So far this years most ear catching moment has nothing to do with finance but comes from two Doctors who are repeat speakers from last year to give the group a Covid related update.

Their predictions last year (think at a time where a lot of uncertainty abounded) were spot on and almost unbelievable accuracy. So accurate they hardly needed to update their presentation.

Knowing we teased you with the headline, stay with us please … and take a quick moment to review these two Doctors backgrounds/Credibility! – Pretty Awesome stuff!

These guys are not show boaters!

So maybe not Dr. Culver’s best look … think super smart professor we have all had in our life!

Make it to 2030 and You will Likely Live Over Age 100

My mouth almost dropped when I heard these two stately Doctors utter the words above.

There is a super cool chart that the Doctors had in their slide deck, and of course it is the ONLY slide that had “Not for Reproduction” …. so in honoring their request … here is a recreated slide from their predictions.

Since 1850 average mortality has increase 2.5 years every ten years.

From 2020 to 2030 the Doctors believe we will see an increase age expectancy of 30 years, yep THIRTY!

That is the huge jump in the chart on the very far right upper expected mortality age 112 !

Much of this is due to the expected pull forward of knowledge earned from Covid and the various Vaccines.

The Doctors repeatedly mentioned that they expect a youthful elder years as well, not just extended longevity!

Recommended Life Style and Personal Health Monitoring

Here is a quick Legend for the abbreviations:

  • Blood Pressure
  • Body Mass Index
  • Fasting Blood Sugar
  • Cholesterol
  • No Tobacco
  • Stress Management – VERY INTERESTING! Newly added by the Doctors

For the record, those are not low hurdles using my own situation as an example!

Look for a more detailed review of this in the coming Newsletter!

Have a Great “Make it to 2030, live to over 100” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Musk Hosts SNL … Mauldin SIC Conference … Robert Kaplan Talks Taper

Being probably the least fan of SNL – Saturday Night Live – in our family, it is on the calendar to attempt to stay up this weekend and watch Elon Musk host SNL. Once announced there has been some grumblings among actors, a fiery Musk Tweet and fiery Tweet response that are likely no more than showmanship, but like many I can’t wait to see the show!

Ratings increase? Bet so!

John Maulden SIC conference

Last year the John Mauldin SIC – Strategic Investor Conference – was available virtually … and once again it is this year. This conference lasts for two weeks and started this week … has close to 50 high-powered guests, with complete replays and slide decks … we are excited to present the high points of some of these speakers just as we did earlier this week with the Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting and our Q 3 2020 Newsletter

Taper Talk – Floating the Balloon ?

Local favorite Dallas Federal Reserve chair Robert Kaplan who is not a voting member of the FOMC but still remains on the board this year was the first to mention the word Taper – Well he didn’t really mention taper but mentioned the slowing of asset purchases.

No more than a few days later Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also mentioned something with regards to asset prices and the possibility of slowing purchases.

With a rather yawning capital market response, it would not be beyond a reasonable belief that they are floating some of these out to see market responses.

Look for more comments from us on this and a very watchful eye for more speakers slowly adjusting the aircraft carrier.

Friday

Ahhhh… but today is a Friday heading into a wonderful spring weekend and a possibly very entertaining SNL skit tomorrow night!

Enjoy, Talk to you Next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Oracle of Omaha …. Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting … Finally Made it Through … Thoughts

Each year for the last five (which is about when they began streaming the meetings), I am always enthusiastic about listening to the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, which prior to social distancing was more like a sporting event than a shareholder meeting.

Oh, for those that may be wondering, Berkshire Hathaway is headed by Warren Buffett age 90 (not Jimmy – being silly here) and Charlie Munger age 98. The name stems from a bankrupt textile company turned massive conglomerate filled with Insurance Companies (Geico) Railroads, and home builders (largest manufactured home builder in US) just to name a few.

Back to the meeting… Buffett honestly says (and it is true) the actual meeting is BOORING and Buffett even discourages folks to listen to the formal section, BUT there is an opening ceremony of such where Buffett has a 5-15 minute planned discussion followed by 3-3.5 hours of Q and A, most of which is known, but a few are sent in live and carefully reviewed and presented by Becky Quick of CNBC.

Finally A Way To Get Through The Meeting

So the last five years were a terrible failure as the attention span drifted before the entire meeting could be consumed…. Hey these guys are 90 and 98 and move at their own pace, but a wealth of VERY interesting opinions as well as knowledge.

This year a freak accidental trial was successful and made for a very enjoyable meeting review.

After finding a replay of the meeting on YouTube then cranking the speed up from 1x to 1.25 to 1.5 and finally landing on 1.75x normal speed, ta dah … the meeting was happily consumed with full 100% attention AND SOME NOTES!

These are in no sort of order, but basically organized as well as possible given the jumping of topics due to open questions – So here we go, hope you enjoy!

(These a not my opinions or thoughts, only a replay of Charlie and Warren’s high points)

Intro Discussion

Very Pro USA and Complimentary to Capital Creation in the USA

Brings a list of top largest 20 companies in the world, with total domination of USA

Currently have $145 Billion and only need $70 Billion – Current Asset Prices are Not Inviting to Warren and Charlie – Market is too fully priced (Sound Familiar?)

Sold Airlines to allow them to get Federal Funding

Munger Comment – His extra age seems to have loosened his muffler!

Higher State Taxes Chase some smart people away – Silly

SPACS are being created for Wall Street Not Investors and useless use of other peoples money – According to Charlie

Been and actor so long I do not know what I believe – Dogging on politicians and bad CEO’s

Buffett – More Politically PC

Low Interest Rates are causing very high asset prices

Inflationary prices are coming through the home building and other sectors, economy is red hot! Steel and scarcity of product

Furniture store red hot

More inflation going on than meets the eye- Yep

Both Admire Larry Summers convictions to Inflation concerns!

Great Closing Q & A Question:

What was greatest thing learned last year?

Munger: If you are not somewhat confused by what has happened you are not paying attention-

Buffett: Very interested in how this all works out!

Ok, so there you have it. 3.5 Hours condensed into one blog post with some high points that just by chance coincide with some of our thoughts….

Have a Great “Finally Made it Through a Berkshire Meeting” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

IMF Global GDP Estimates 2020-2022 From Visual Capitalist – Cool Three Year Global Estimate

We have noted multiple times to expect some roaring Economic Numbers, which is not a super prescient call due to easy year over year comparisons and the world actually reopening…. (Our curiosity is how this data is digested by Governments, Forecasters and Market Participants)

We ran across a neat Goldman micro time GDP chart recently, that has left our sight grrrrr, but is a quarter by quarter estimate that is fascinating…. we will likely find it eventually and present it here…

For now, we wanted to show this three year global GDP (Gross Domestic Production-Blunt Economic Growth Measurement) from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) –

The IMF, just like any organization misses in Forecasts …. it is not in stone, but this is a very interesting three year, more high level look at the globe as it reopens….

IMF – Visual Capitalist Global Three Year GDP Comparison

This chart was a slider and can be found directly at our friends from Visual Capitalist Here

Year 2020 Findings we find most interesting:

USA GDP Contracts only 3.3% Wow

Global Average the same 3.3% Contraction – Wow Wow

Year 2021 ESTIMATES

Note USA estimated Growth of 6.4% – surprising low

IMF World rebound Estimate of 6% – again, surprisingly low

Year 2022 ESTIMATES – The farther you go the harder they are!

IMF US Estimate at 3.5%

Global Estimate 4.4% –

Not really what to think of this…. both seem off to us ! Clearly a USA Laggard Estimate!

This will be marked as forecast and we can look back and see how good or bad the estimates were!

Have a Great “Multi Year Global GDP Estimate” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

April 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our April 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

April 2021 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tips

Rounds 1-3 Stimulus Funds Explained

In this late month post we reviewed our integrated Tax Filing learnings with an updated Stimulus check flow of funds…

The confusing part is mostly from the situation where a decrease in earnings from 2019 to 2020 brought Stimulus credits onto our 2020 Tax return, in the form of that Sneaky Line 30 of our 1040.

September 1, 2021 Round 3 of $1400 Stimulus Look back

There are several important lines in the sand….

Individuals/Families who had a higher 2019 income that knocked them out of some or all of the stimulus original money but a lower 2020 income assuming this person would have qualified for the $1400 per person stimulus based on year 2020 … what the IRS is going to do concerning this matter is on September 1st 2021 they’re going to review all of the 2020 tax returns for folks who had not received the $1400 credit for them and their family and if they meet that threshold they will then receive the $1400 credit period remember this is the much faster phaseout of only $160k and $80k Joint and for an individual.

2021 Tax Return Look Back

Assuming you were not below the thresh hold for 2019 or 2020 return, If a person’s income in 2021 were to drop below the new thresholds .. think next year around this time… you will still qualify for the $1400 credit . They are using the same play book as the original March 2020 rebate look back to give an extra year of the $1400 being credited and it would then show up on sneaky line 30 form 1040 tax return for 2021!.

Capital Market Comments

Fearful or Greedy

“Be Fearful When Others are Greedy and Greedy When Others are Fearful”

Warren Buffett

In this mid-month post we take a soft swipe at market Valuations, knowing that Valuations do not make markets drop, but does possibly set them up for faster drops if unexpected events occur

Time to Be Greedy

Capital Markets are the only store in town where when things go on sale, people flee the store!

Time to Be Cautious

For some reason we just want to hop on and go for a ride- feels good -but very dangerous!

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of May!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Another SLOA – Standard Letter of Authorization Reminder, No Action Needed

Due to new rules which came out several years ago an annual notification is mandated by our transaction Vendor. This notification is dubbed SLOA reminder!

The More Than Annual SLOA Reminder

Sharp eyed folks with a good memory who maybe poured over our Q 1 2021 Newsletter will recall we reminded of the annual SLOA – Standard Letter of Instructions both here at Street-Cents and in paper form in the Newsletter….

Here is what it looks like, and the reason we are repeating our selves as several showed up in our personal mailbox at the start of the week…. much to our repeat confusion!

Pretty vanilla, and only shows accounts connected that we can move money to and from for you!

Hmmmmm…. but why the duplicate?

At the bottom of our paper copy, we noticed the Schwab copyright…. a new addition to the letter.

Bet the merger created a duplicate need for SLOA letters…

Take a look and see if any old or unused accounts remain, let us know if they do and we will disconnect!

Oh… and if a bank has changed names (bought out or sold) but has the same bank account number, there is likely no need for an update…

Have a Great “Why the Duplicate SLOA Letter” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Stimulus Funds Further Explained, Rounds 1-3, Those Near Phase Out Likely Very Important Information For You Here!

Last Friday here in this post we mentioned that we had accidentally stumbled onto an explanation of the stimulus checks and especially with regards to those folks near the phaseout area.

If you have received all of your and your family’s stimulus checks or if you have received no stimulus checks and your income is the same or higher please carry on this article is not for you but feel free to share with a friend or colleague who might be in this situation.

Round One Stimulus $1200 adult, $500 Qualifying kids

Stimulus Rounds Reminder From Our Q 2 2020 Newsletter

Round 1 : $1200 adult, $500 qualifying kids

Checks Being Sent to Over 90% of the population 

Each person to receive $1200, kids UNDER age 17 credited to parents at $500 each, no limit in headcount. 

This Rebate is NOT TAXABLE! 

The payout is likely to be sent out end of April or early May! 

There is a phase out: 

The applicable AGI phase out threshold amounts are as follows: 

  • Married Joint: $150,000 
  • Head of Household: $112,500 
  • All Other Filers: $75,000 

This phase out is based on either your 2018 or 2019 tax return, whichever is most recent. If your income exceeds the threshold and you are phased out completely, and your 2020 income is below the threshold when you file your 2020 tax return, you will receive your Recovery Rebate at the time of your 2020 filing. 

If you did not originally receive round 1 or were partially phased out the key is this last underlined sentence. If your 2020 Income drops into the threshold of receiving some or all of the prior stimulus assuming your 2019 income was higher and you did not receive any or all of your 2020 rebate, it is showing up on the new sneaky Line 30 of the 1040!

But hold on that’s not all  January 2021 – Round 2 $600 Stimulus

Another new phase out:

For every $100 of Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) a taxpayer exceeds their applicable threshold, $5 of Additional Recovery Rebate will be phased out. Thus, the phaseout range varies from taxpayer to taxpayer, depending upon the size of their ‘base’ Additional Recovery Rebate in the first place (i.e., the more eligible individuals, the larger the dollar amount to be phased out at $5 per $100 of AGI, and the more income it will take to fully phase out the rebate check!

If you were phased out based on 2019 return and qualify based on your 2020 return, this will also show up on the sneaky Line 30 of your 1040!

But hold on that’s still not all- Round 3 the $1400 check -Sept 1, 2021 Lookback

Another More Cliff (Fast) Phase Out

Individuals earning $75k will be phased out at $80k and JT $150k phased out at $160k

Individuals/Families who had a higher 2019 income that knocked them out of some or all of the stimulus original money but a lower 2020 income assuming this person would have qualified for the $1400 per person stimulus based on year 2020 … what the IRS is going to do concerning this matter is on September 1st 2021 they’re going to review all of the 2020 tax returns for folks who had not received the $1400 credit for them and their family and if they meet that threshold they will then receive the $1400 credit period remember this is the much faster phaseout of only $160k and $80k Joint and for an individual.

But Hold on that’s still not all – Not Kidding! Tax Return Year 2021 Look Back!

Assuming you were not below the thresh hold for 2019 or 2020 return, If a person’s income in 2021 were to drop below the new thresholds .. think next year around this time… you will still qualify for the $1400 credit . They are using the same play book as the original March 2020 rebate look back to give an extra year of the $1400 being credited and it would then show up on sneaky line 30 form 1040 tax return for 2021!.

It’s very likely that this will cause great confusion next year … even more than it is causing this year because it will be so much farther in the future .

Important planning technique for this year for people who have failed the 2019 and 2020 income tax level. Should you be able to control your income in some way form or fashion it may be worth you keeping an eye on your total income this year tax year 2021 and attempting to keep it below the current quick phaseout levels in order to receive the $1400 per person benefit next year. Just a thought  

To Summarize Round 1, 2 and 3

A lower 2020 income may bring some or all of the Round 1 and 2 onto Line 30 of your 1040 at the time of fling your 2020 Form 1040 income tax return.

The IRS will look at all returns who did not already receive the Round 3 $1400 stimulus on September 1, 2021 and if you qualify, sometime shortly there will be another $1400/person sent. If you fall into this category, or think you may, DO NOT FILE AN EXTENDED EXTENSION – If you file after September 1, 2021 you will have missed the look back window!

If you fail all of these tests, there will be one last check this time next year for your 2021 return, and if that is lower you will receive the $1400 at that time.

Wow…. Clear as we could be, but it is confusing!

We will have a more detailed article in the coming Newsletter as well as reminders here as we hit deadline dates!

Have a Great “Round 1-3 Stimulus Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Preview Update on Stimulus Catch Up Plans for Those on the Edge of Phase Outs … Friday

After a week of very confusing information regarding how the Rebates are showing up in our return, we have figured it out….

Complete Stimulus Explanation Preview

Earlier in the month, here in this post, we correctly pointed out that in fact the stimulus is jumping onto a sneaky new line item on our Tax Returns ….. Line 30 of the 1040

But what we missed were exactly what stimulus was jumping onto Line 30!

This week we finally figured it out!

Friday

Ahhhh, today is a Friday and next week we will expand on this subject (Weekend Work) as it is complicated and needs more time to appropriately explain!

Have a Great Weekend and Friday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

New York, LA, Chicago, Rural Equivalent …. Interesting Population Density Comparison

We love to break the monotony of the usual Financial “Stuff” with an off topic just to keep it fun…. Fortunately there are some really interesting and unusual charts that grab our attention frequently!

Our friends and Visual Capitalist continue to push out some of the neatest charts ever ….

New York V Rural Comparison

new york city population density equivalent map

LA V Rural Comparison

los angeles county population density equivalent map

Chicago V Rural Comparison

Population Density Equivalent

Have a great “Population Density Comparison” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

A Time to Buy and A Time to Be Cautious

“Be Fearful When Others are Greedy and Greedy When Others are Fearful”

Warren Buffett

But human nature is totally against this for some reason.

Maybe it is our fight or flight genetics …

Maybe it is our fondness of going with the crowd …

Fearful or Greedy?

It’s easy to reflect on this now…

Fearful or Greedy?

This is today, in real time!

For some reason our instincts on this are frequently … hop on for the ride ….

Not many being Fearful….

Repeat Warren’s Quote for Confidence!

Have a Great “Fear and Greed” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents