FOMC Meeting and Interest Rate Update from Last Week

Last week, here in our preview of the meeting post, we discussed what the Federal Open Market Committee would likely review via the fortunate lunch with local Dallas Federal Reserve Chair Robert Kaplan and even had direct audio from the event.

We know it’s summer and we know many of you may be taking much needed R and R, but the FOMC meeting last week was surprisingly important.

Bottom Line: No rate lowering but rhetoric that was taken by market participants as a lowering is in the cards sooner rather than later!

Important Update Meeting Review

Jerome Powell, FOMC Chair released his decision to NOT lower rates ….

our comments….

From information gathered via the audio and economic data points available at the time, we felt strongly that the FOMC would not LOWER rates, that’s in bold because until just recently, many thought future increases may be in the cards.

However … this statement, in the FOMC press release was deemed to mean rates will be lower at the next meeting, which put wind int he sails of Capital Markets …

“The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook have increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”

Here is the joint estimate of FOMC members for  GDP (Gross Domestic Production-broadest estimate of US growth) for the remainder of the year … note an expectation of slightly slower growth for the remainder of the year and into 2020/21:

6-19-19 GDP Estimate FOMC

There is also a Dot Chart that shows where FOMC members expect rates to be over the same time period, but it was a mess and confusing…so we left it out!

Not playing Economist here, but there is a lot of room for lowering or NOT lowering as well… time will tell, but for now the general consensus for the next meeting which is at the end of July (30-31) is for a lowering of rates, at least by most Market Participants or those with a microphone  …. Call us skeptical of agreeing at this time….

Bottom Line: No rate lowering but rhetoric that was taken by market participants as a lowering is in the cards sooner rather than later!

There are some nice positives that come with these expectations… Mortgage Rates will likely continue to stay low and may even go lower!

Sorry if we got into the weeds, but we wanted to clarify the slightly blurry statement, reaction, and expectations!

Have a Great “FOMC Meeting Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Save the Date – An Unusual Holiday Date – Thursday November 14th -We have the Perot Museum for the Evening – Cool

After clearing/adding coverage for our Insurance for the event ….

Signing a few contracts that says we are not a crazy group ….

Getting security guards for the event …

Establishing our Parking Area….

Finalizing the entire building for our use only …

Working on food options … not finished yet, but will have same group as the Arboretum two years ago….

We are happy to announce:

SAVE THE UNUSUAL DATE

We have secured the Perot Museum for the night of Thursday November 14th from 6:30 to 9 PM – yes the Perot Museum for our use only … for an exciting educational experience for grown ups and kids!

Click Here for Direct Link to Video

 

TheBuilding-06

The date is a function of popularity and costs ….

We know it is a bit earlier than usual, but we thought the venue worth the unique date …

We hope you can make it, should be fun!

Happy Happy Summer Friday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

 

Part 2 : Tom Clark Social Security Expert with Audio on frequently forgotten benefit – The Social Security Disability Benefit

Part 2 from the very beginning of our  Social Security Event earlier this year, Expert, Mr. Tom Clark, led off the fun casual discussion with the much important and frequently forgotten secondary benefits that Social Security Provides. Part 1 Here and Direct Audio Here on our site,  Discussed Social Security Death Benefits – but now the secondary forgotten portion of Social Security Benefits:

Social Security Disability Benefit

  • Social Security Disability benefits are VERY important, due to the fact that 1 of 3 workers die or become disabled, with the great majority being Disabled
  • Disability benefits are for very disabled, and pay to those that cannot due any work anywhere in the US
  • One in four workers being disabled now versus one in three in recent years is a great improvement
  • Majority of workers become disabled in mid to late 50’s
  • Disability benefits are paid as if you are retired at Full retirement age I.e. Your maximum full retirement age benefit will be paid to you if you become disabled no matter your age

 

Multiple Audio for Different Devices – Mr. Tom Clark – If first does not work, click next file – all are same audio, just different format

Wave file format:

MP3 File Format:

OGG File Format:

M4A File Format:

As a last resort – Click Here for Direct Link to Audio Posted on our Special Social Security Page

Have a Great “Understanding Social Security Disability Benefits” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

All Eyes on the Federal Reserve – Will they LOWER (yes you read that correctly) Rates? Audio from Local Fed President, Robert Kaplan, on how the decision is made!

Ok…so the Social Security event forced us to pull together new audio equipment – we never knew how quickly we would utilize these new tools for events such as what follows – We hope you enjoy these pertinent comments directly from the horses mouth!

Unthinkable just a few quarters ago…. Market Participants are thinking there may be a FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) LOWERING of rates – yep lowering!

This week the FOMC will announce their decision, based on many factors as you will hear from the attached audio – what makes this weeks meeting special is the slight expectation of a lowering of rates and this meeting includes the FOMC estimates of the economy and an interview with chief Jerome Powell post announcement –

Now – what they are looking at to make the decision!

At our recent CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) sponsored event, we were fortunate enough to have an hour with Robert Kaplan, Dallas Federal Reserve President. We were also fortunate enough to get audio of the event…

What the Fed Watches to make rate decisions20190528_170905120_iOS

According to Robert Kaplan, Audio below, he along with his fellow FOMC chiefs watch the following, just to name a few items:

Cyclical Factors – Short Term Indicators – Less important to Kaplan – I.e. CPI, Earnings, Interest Rates, Employment rates – basically all the items we read on a daily basis or are bombarded with in “Breaking News! Like format – Interestingly and very correctly from our perch, Kaplan is not a big advocate of placing much weight on these factors – see next as he mostly ignores the short term noise – Wisely in our opinion – see audio below

Structural Factors – Longer Term Trends – MORE important to Kaplan and becoming more important to the entire FOMC board due to his repeated review – I.e. Population growth/demographics, Government Debt, Corporate Debt, TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION (huge importance), World Growth – Again, totally agree – see audio below

Individual Company Response – Kaplan talks to over 30 large and small company CEO’s monthly along with continued in- person visits with companies to help determine, just what the economy is doing along with longer term Structural disrupting factors – see audio below

Group Input – With multiple chiefs from a dozen districts bringing their collective input to the table, a theme hopefully develops!

Here is the Audio in different formats for different devices – with three different types we hope at least one works on your device!

MP3:

Wave File:

OGG File:

Our Thoughts

Our bet is no lowering of rates, which may be met with disappointment (lower markets)!

Have a Great “FED Decision Week” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Quarterly Estimated Tax Reminder … Payment Due Next Monday – Travels Next Week – Happy Fathers Day Weekend

For those of you that need to pay in estimated taxes, this is your friendly reminder…

Payment Due Dates
You can pay all of your estimated tax by April 15, 2019, or
in four equal amounts by the dates shown below.
1st payment …………….. April 15, 2019
2nd payment ……………. June 17, 2019
3rd payment …………….. Sept. 16, 2019
4th payment …………….. Jan. 15, 2020*

Quarterly Estimated Tax Payment Reminder

Here is the link to IRS Publication 1040 ES  – which has EVERYTHING you need to file your ES payment!

Here is the ES payment coupon due Monday June 17, 2019:

2019 Payment Voucher 2 due June 17 2019

Here is where to send the ES Payments:

2019 Where to File ES Payments

 

State Income Tax filers, you may also need to file a similar report as the above is for Federal Only Income Tax filers…

Break In:

At 10:40, about ten minutes after this post hits your in box, the fourteen year old will play in the Consolation Finals (5th or 6th place) see next note – Nice Father’s Day Gift!

Happy Father’s Day Weekend!

 

Post Tennis Travels

This week, the largest Texas Tennis Tournament of the Year occurred in a small and people-crushed into, West Texas Town (with VERY bad internet- I digress) … 984 players (not including parents) squashing themselves on courts, grocery stores, restaurants, and any place that was available… EVERYONE … present party included, GLAD TO BE THERE AS LONG AS POSSIBLE … AS IT IS WIN OR GO HOME …. next week, the family is happily off for a quick break in a quiet place before the next tournament which is more normal … a long Weekend  (summer brings the most tournaments of the year).

Always lightly tethered electronically!

Talk to you next week – thanks for your time!

Have a Great “Quarterly ES Reminder” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

Part 1 : Tom Clark Social Security Expert with Audio on frequently forgotten benefit – The Social Security Survivor Death Benefit

At our Fantastic Social Security Event earlier this year, Expert, Mr. Tom Clark, led off the fun casual discussion with the much important and frequently forgotten benefits that Social Security Provides.

Social Security Death Benefits

  • Should a parent die with children under the age of 18, Social Security Monthly Death Benefits will be payable until age 18 for each child
  • Parents will have needed to pay into Social Security for the benefit to occur
  • Benefits will pay to a maximum of three children per family i.e. Families with greater than three children will max at the third child (called the family maximum benefit), families with less than three children will be receive monthly benefits based on number of children under 18 – Here is a link to how to calculate the benefit, as warned by Clark, its complicated
  • Benefit amount will depend on amount being paid into at the time – i.e. Higher payers will receive higher benefits
  • No matter the income a benefit will be paid i.e. “Even a billionaires child will receive monthly benefits until age 18!” This statement in the Audio from event, below
  • Benefits will be paid to an adult for the benefit/use of the child
  • Over THIRTY FIVE THOUSAND, yep, thirty five thousand children receiving benefits in the Dallas Fort Worth Area alone! From audio below

 

Multiple Audio for Differing Devices – Mr. Tom Clark

 

Have a Great “Understanding Social Security Death Benefits” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Password Safe Keeping Idea, Confidential Portion of Your Personal Vault

Digital Assets, AKA your Passwords have become a challenging item for many. We find that in most cases, one party is controller of them and those single folks may not have an easy back-up.

Did you know your Personal Vault has a confidential folder area?

1 Minute Video –

Confidential File Area of Your Personal Vault

We know many of you may have a notebook with a special area that has all of your Passwords –

Our favorite –

An Excel file, NOT named “Passwords” – that has a very strong Excel password to open the file. You can even have the respective websites linked in the Excel file so when you go to your password file, you just click on the link for the website and boom your browser opens to that page ….

Share that Excel file password carefully, update the file whenever you have to do the eventual mandated password update for your selective sites!

Upload that file to your Confidential Area of your Vault, and you are set.

Have a Great “Safe Password” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents