Extended Tax Season Finish Line, New Neat Tracking Site Found … Friday

With an original Mid-March Corporate Tax Deadline, a regular estimated tax (ES 2021) April deadline … a most states extend 1040 to May deadline and then a June Taxes deadline for Texas and a few other states this could have been the longest tax season ever!

Next week marks the final full finish line of this most confusing and marathon like tax filing year. Thank you very much for your collective patience as it was very confusing to all across the country.

Possible New Economic Tracker

Next week we hope to preview another newly found very cool website that can monitor indirectly the economy, this one … unlike our TSA tracker… does not involving airplanes but boats! With a little luck we will get copyright privileges and can show you directly.

Ahhh … but that is next week, today is a Friday heading into an almost summer weekend. As mentioned near Memorial Day, a hope for an Ark …the rain has stopped …it’s still very wet here but slowly drying …some monster mosquitos that can carry small pets away …. But all good!

Have a great Friday a Super Weekend and talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Department of Defense Releases UFO Statements and Video, Another Full Report Due Any Day Now

So we always talk Economics, Financial Planning, Interest rates or other Financial “STUFF” ….

We do read other subject matters … and have a funny sense of humor (some may say weird or strange, but that is ok-haha) … We wanted to bring your attention to a soon to be released report from the Department of Defense.

In a cannot make this up manner, the December 2020 Stimulus package included the mandatory release of UFO information within six months of the bill…. that would be by the end of this month…..(Ok, so we drifted back into Financial STUFF again)

No idea why or how a UFO report release founds its way into a Stimulus bill, but again cannot make this up!

One of Many Prior Releases

In doing our research we ran across a neat release that pointed us to a video that was downloadable…..

On April 27, 2020 the Department of Defense released a Navy Pilot video…

Release statement

Here is the video:

Over the last four years, there have been a dribbling of reports released. Here is a good article from Scientific American printed yesterday that takes enough sides of UFO’s, no matter your thoughts you will be supported…

Not sure why these releases are happening …

No idea why now ….

Will be very interested in reviewing the new release, which if holds on due date has to be released in the next few weeks…

Odd this was embedded into a Stimulus Bill…

Have a Great “UFO Report Release” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Indeed Job Openings Country and Global Review- Stunning Improvements

A while back, we reviewed the JOLTS – Job Opening Statistics here . We noted at that time, the index was at an all time high, putting pressure on Employers to find workers….

Indeed Job Openings

With copyright permission granted a while back, lets take a look with greater precision at different areas of the country and world for that matter…. Data from Indeed Lab Solutions

Big US States – Wow – Florida pushing almost 40% increase in job listings versus 1-2020! Maybe not surprising after hearing all of the traffic heading to the State from other areas of the country.

Texas and Big Texas Cities

All between 20-30% higher ! Wow again!

Around the Globe

Very interesting to see the listings adjust so dramatically close to the openings and closings of countries…

All in all, very stunning improvements across the Globe!

Have a Great “Indeed Job Openings Review” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Who Locked the Dogs Up? Who, Who Who … Summer Doldrums?

As opposed to the 21 year old (Yikes, that was 21 years ago?) very poplar song….

Who Let the Dogs Out” song!

Had to check to make sure the video was ok… not to worry, all safe…

Work with me here… some humor for your Friday and Weekend !!!

Summer Doldrums?

There once upon a time was a part of the year from Memorial Day to Labor Day that was ….. well booooring and quiet….in Capital Markets!

We have not seen that in enough years for it to be striking that it is calm…. SO FAR!

Hopefully the mention does not jinx!

SP 500 Daily Recently

Ok, so it is a short time frame…

Sure there are fireworks in certain VERY speculative parts of the market…

Maybe everyone is just ready to spread their collective wings and safely enjoy the summer?

Could Change of course at a moments notice…

If we had our wish, would just continue and let our oversized clothes be grown into via earnings of public companies…

We will be watching…..

Enjoy your Friday and talk next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

May 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our May 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

May 2021 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tips

Preparing to Hit the Sky Again

In this Break In Moment Post, an executive of the company Fligence reached out with regards to our fun TSA Posts through the closure of the country.

Their neatly designed website can be a very handy item for determining your possible time needs and delays as well as neatly follow our country to reopening at full speed.

Capital Market Comments

Inflation or No Inflation

In doing writings, I try to approach each article with a clear mind and head, especially if the post is heavy ….

Many times I try to completely forget the article or post from maybe just a week before….

Good News…. the Month of May was a success in clearing my mind as I accidentally pounded everyone over the head with Inflation stuff…..

My apologies, but it coming at us from so many directions made it top of mind….

At the Berkshire Hathaway meeting post, starring Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, Inflation was all the chatter and a huge concern for them.

Then Here in our Jolts – job opening Post we looked at how there are tons of jobs to be had –

Here in our Favorite Dallas Federal Reserve Chair post, Robert Kaplan – Sooner rather than later, worries inflation may be coming if we stay too low on interest rates…

Lastly in this verbal tug of war post between Jim Bianco and Lacy Hunt, they could not more disagree very emphatically.

Time will tell who is correct in their thinking!

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of June!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Memorial Day Weekend, School’s Out, Office Hours, TSA Throughput Update WOW! , The Ark of Texas

We are happy to give honor to all those who server in the military and especially those fallen during their service. You give us the ability to live our life safe, and proudly…

Memorial Day

Thank you for your service!

Memorial Day Honored

Memorial Day is honored on Monday May 31 2021

Banks, Government offices, Capital Markets and our office will be closed as well

School Schedule – Done Tomorrow – Out of Office Friday

For the first time ever for my gang and likely for the rest of the office, all of our kids are out by tomorrow, mid day at the latest!

With a half day on Thursday heading into the honored weekend, we are planning on being out of the office on Friday and will only be very lightly tethered.

TSA Throughput Update – For Those Flyers

Earlier this week, a nice comment email from a Clemente at www.Fligence.com came through noting the work we had done on TSA Throughput….

After a few exchanged emails, she allowed us to reproduce her company TSA throughput information here with credits of course….

We encourage those interested and especially those that are starting to travel again to go to her company website as you can drill down to your specific airport for latest TSA numbers, daily and even hourly for your travel planning purposes–fligence.com

Timely for those that may be traveling via air this week … with air support personal likely still at low capacity, we are getting closer to full bookings (seems unbelievable from a year ago!)

Lighter Blue 2021 line is their Future Estimates

Ark of Texas

As mentioned frequently, we are an outside family…. actually everyone at our firm are outside people and their families too!

For those 1000 or so followers in other places of the country, there is some weird storm system that is STUCK over Texas.

No Sun….

Lot’s of Rain…

Grrrrrr…….

Lemon Aid from Lemons …. Grass is growing if it does not float away to your neighbors yard!

Have a Great Rest of the Week, and Memorial Day – Talk Next Week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Inflation is Coming, No it Isn’t Deflation Is On the Way??? From John Mauldin‘s SIC – Strategic Investor Conference – Jim Bianco and Lacy Hunt

Break In : Interesting Google Trends

With this post already set to go, I ran across this interesting chart late in the weekend and thought it worth adding- looks like others are interested in at least the Inflation answer: 2004 to current Google Trends Searches –

  • Blue = Inflation Searches
  • Red = Deflation
  • Yellow = Recession

Ok, back to our regularly schedule Post!

n spring of 2020 during the beginning of the countrywide lockdown‘s we had the opportunity to attend a conference that we had never chosen to do before due to logistics, cost, and length of the conference (7-10 days). John Mauldin SIC Strategic Investor Conference, after 18 years of consecutive conferences Mauldin shifted last year’s and this year’s conference to virtual and we were happy attendees.

The conference this year lasted a total of two weeks and had 45 speakers of which about 35 were Capital Market related with the other 10 being macro-economic or specific industry such as doctors.

Views: Number One From the Conference – Go Away FOMC – You Have Stayed Too Long

View number one and shared by every market related expert, the federal reserve is overstaying their welcome and should immediately stop asset purchases and begin talking about increasing rates. The main reason for these shared views are because asset levels have become inflated across almost all assets according to the experts and be continued purchases are no longer necessary given that capital markets are orderly.

Number Two – Inflation Is Coming – Via Jim Bianco

View number two shared by approximately 75% to 80% of the Capital Market Professionals were there will be some type of inflation. About half of the professionals felt like inflation would indeed be transition, which is what Jerome Powell (FOMC President) and the federal reserve are saying the other half felt like by the FED continuing to purchase assets a change from the long deflationary era of the last four decades to a longer-term inflationary era over the next several decades is ahead.

None of the pro inflation experts predicted runaway inflation that we had in the 70s but the most aggressive inflationary person that we heard was Jim Bianco of Bianco research. In one of many slides, Bianco pointed to the rise of the 10 Year Treasury, below and a belief it would continue to rise.

10 Year US Treasury Yield

Number Three – No Inflation, Back to Slow Grow – Via Lacy Hunt

View number three, shared by the remaining market experts emphatically, there will be no inflation and we will return to a slow growth environment similar to what we had coming out of the financial setback of 2007 -2009.

The most emphatic believer of this deflationary trend was Lacey Hunt who oddly enough shared the stage with the aforementioned Jim Bianco, and has been an expert in the capital markets for 40 years.

Mr. Hunt‘s main beliefs on why deflation will continue are the debt occurring by the afore mentioned FED asset purchase and ageing demographics.

So what are we do with all of this information and where does that leave us?

With such dissenting opinions it’s clear that someone will be wrong and things never work out exactly like people think, so some may be correct in a portion of their view an incorrect and another.

If Bianco is correct and inflation occurs and remains this would lead to substantial pressure on long duration assets such as the value of real estate, low earning but fast growing equities, long bonds such as the 30 year treasury and higher borrowing costs across the board.  This would be a dramatic change from the last four decades and more rhyming of the late 70’s, but again not to the extreme.

If Hunt is correct, this will be a continuation of what we have seen over the prior four decades. Lower long term rates, lower borrowing costs, continued slower economic growth, lower expected earnings and continued upward pressure(tailwind) on the above mentioned longer duration assets.

The good news in monitoring each of the various forecasts we have easy to read and follow economic numbers such as the CPI and the level of interest rates, as well as federal reserve speakers talk in public venues.

In closing all of professionals believe most asset prices were elevated.  High asset prices are not a direct reason for them to come down, and elevated asset prices can be grown into, like the 13-year-old growing quickly into the 15-year-old clothes. But high asset prices demand discipline and care as increased volatility is likely.

Have a Great “Inflation Deflation Tug Of War” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

School Almost Over -Memorial Day Coming – Friday

After a struggling start to the school year, its hard to believe next Thursday marks the final day for the 7th grader…

Good News is he has two half days on Wednesday and Thursday

Bad News is he has two big tests on both days….

All together now – F O C U S ! Please….

The 10th Grade Tennis player (all On line) is down to the last proctored Exam tonight – Yea, 6 pm Friday fun!

OH… and we have this going on over the summer too… will let you know when the release comes so you all can stay off the streets! haha –

Happy Memorial Day Coming Reminder

With Friends, family and relatives in the Military – Memorial Day Brings on Stronger Meaning Each Year…

Monday Week, May 31st is Memorial Day – The Unofficial Pool Opening day! Given the water we have had coming from the sky of late, all pools will easily be full…. clean may be a different story, but take what they give I guess!

Shhhhh…. Don’t tell anyone, but the office will likely be closed near the end of next week for Kid enjoyment and a little R and R before the final push to tax season occurs – Will confirm again as we hit mid week next week !

Ahhhhh…. but today is a Friday, heading into a fun PGA Golf Major Championship Weekend!

Enjoy – Talk next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Robert Kaplan Update – Round Table State of Economy – “Sooner Rather than Later!”

One of our favorite Federal Reserve Presidents Dallas’s own Robert Kaplan had another Round Table discussion the most recent Monday night….

Those with great memories may recall my fiasco when listening to his Round Table discussions and accidentally raising my hand for a live question…. good news, avoided that this time! haha

Elephant in the Room – Inflation or Not?

While leading with stats and updates, the review order has been changed due to the very end of the discussion and importance…

Recalling from the Mauldin SIC conference of the last two weeks and and once again here we are…. Elephant topic for Kaplan – Inflation or Not?

(Have you ever been on a call or virtual visit like this and wondered who else is on? – Am I wasting my time here? Or is this a good use of the late evening? – See callers below for answer!)

Live Callers

After about four or five live callers, the moderator announce, “Our next caller is Byron Wien!” – WHAT!

Wien is an 88 year old veteran of the Capital Markets and currently Vice Chair of Blackstone the largest money manager in the US!

What is he doing listening to a Dallas Reserve President at this time of the night – he is one hour later!

In a no nonsense, direct question, Wien asks or more insists “There is inflation and it is coming faster than officials think! What are you guys going to do?”

Kaplan answers directly that he thinks tapering monthly purchases along with increasing of rates should come “Sooner Than Later!”

This statement was repeated more than any other statement and even at one juncture, Kaplan stated “I said this in March and have seen nothing to change my view!” Sooner Rather than Later!

Kaplan goes on to say ” It is better to let off the accelerator and coast and possibly tap the brakes rather than staying on the accelerator and having to jam the brakes quickly!” We Agree!

Last up from the live call ins :

Robert Sakowitz – Concerns about shipping and port trouble- his personal example of $2600 pod now costing him $8000- (Has to be passed on somewhere? right?)

Based on our research and his question, most likely a multi generational retail magnate!

Both calls were concerning inflation, with several others concerned the FED has stayed to long and their mandate has been met!

Interesting Stats from Kaplan

2 million worker age 55 and over retired since Covid, dropping a valuable portion of the workforce

1.5 million women left workforce to care for children- Wow !

Texas and the surrounding Dallas Fed Area High School Superintendents on average graduate 85% of seniors and now only 60% – creating a shortage of skilled workers –

Taper and Policy – How can FED withdraw without market disruption? SLOOOOWLY

Learned from 07-09 – Telegraph in advance and give market time to absorb

What signals will use for taper – FOMC in Dec of 2020 agree that substantial further progress (Kaplan believes this statement is key and is very open to be used and interpreted many ways)

Input supply demand imbalances – metals, food, wages, PCE of April – June – elevated levels – uncertain of how long will persist

Believe inflation run at 2% and anchored there-

11 million barrels of Oil last year, thinks can only to to 11.25 million per day- fossil fuel here for decades longer, maybe not at the same level as prior but will not go away

Great Final Question from the Moderator

What Keeps Me Up at Night? (Recall same exact question of Buffet at annual meeting and the EXACT same answer)

“No textbook for this recovery, this is unlike any other recovery we have ever had- no prior example – We must manage the risk be nimble if possible !”

There you have it… Local Dallas Fed President echoing a lot of things we have been hearing, spoken of and discussed here!

Good News – Time will Tell and it will not be a long time (quarters, not decades)

Have a Great “Kaplan Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

JOLTS – Job Opening Measurement ALL TIME Highs – Great News for Job Seekers, Tough News for Employers

Over the last two weeks during the Mauldin SIC conference (which we are still digesting), multiple speakers mentioned the Jolts Index -Job Openings Labor Turnover – A Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) that measures job openings.

Back in August of 2020, here we first took note of the movement in the Index as it made a turn at the bottom of this chart and actually surprised to the upside.

JOLTS Index Today

Fast forward to today and noting what the Mauldin speakers featured, this Index is at an ALL TIME high!

Key Takeaways

  • Tons of Jobs Available
  • Job Seekers Market
  • Tough on Employers
  • Could lead to higher wages (Inflation?)

Have a Great “JOLTS Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents