More than Return to Normal, Big Wait at Regular Lunch stop… Post travels week Observations … Friday …

As mentioned here last week, there are several travel extravaganzas in the coming weeks and a completed one just this past week ….

In an adjoining state just north of our Southern Texas … a regular meeting place garnered the following crowd….

Upon entrance a 45 minute wait was estimated…. Luckily it was not near that long, but we as a population are no doubt interested in getting out! Yay

For the record… after almost a decade of visits in this same location (creature of habit and avoidance of getting lost…haha) there has never been more than a 5 minute wait….

Ahhhh… Today is a Friday, heading into a nearing the end of School month- Wow… Talk Next Week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialincstreet-cents

Capital Market thoughts, looking forward not back … FOMC chaired by Jerome Powell gave, now taking away, for the moment

We don’t want to get too heavy and pound you with market thoughts, we know you’re getting enough of that from the “Market in Turmoil” like headlines, but we did want to give some explanations and let you know we are watching carefully as we have been on notice since December for a possible slowdown.

Look forward, not back

Economic reports such as today’s CPI (consumer price index) report is very much rearview looking, as such it’s sometime easy to forget that what’s most important is looking forward to what is going to happen next rather than backwards to what has happened. Yes it is much harder, and you do not know exactly what is going to happen … but you sure do not drive a vehicle looking continually in the rear view mirror – some humor on a dry subject… stay with me!

This is even more evident at the recent quick rise in interest rates, creating the headwinds to bonds. As noted here and again here in our posts (the second with even a special video) it’s highly likely and the probability is most that the headwinds for our fixed income investments are behind us. Once again looking forward, a slow down usually garners lower interest rates, exactly opposite to our slightly current and mostly rearview looking higher rates.

FOMC chaired by Powell gave and now takes

Over the past 18 months to two years the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) headed by Jerome Powell have taken very aggressive measures to stimulate the economy. Much of a stimulation, once the book is written may have over stimulated not only the economy but various asset prices. Their goal at this time is to slow inflation thereby doing a complete turnaround from their prior stance and taking away stimulus. This most likely will continue until they see evidence of slower inflation or lower employment. 

Higher rates are their main instrument of choice:

The FOMC waits for the reports such as the CPI to confirm their decisions, making for a lag in decision making and possibly longer decision-making, but they will eventually get there….

Finally, capital markets are certainly looking forward hence the sluggishness as they begin to price in a slowdown in full force. Eventually it’s very likely the FOMC will begin to see these clues as well!

Have a Great “Forward Looking” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Back to Basics Fun Educational Review – Part Six – Estate Planning … No Fear of the Fancy Terminology!

Welcome back to Part Six of our “Back to Basics” series .. we hope you’ve enjoyed the First Five which started with all about “The Emergency Fund” in Part 1Part 2 being “Protection Planning” and Part 3 discussing All about Debt Planning or “The Good the Bad and the Ugly of Debt”, Part 4 Retirement PlanningPart Five, Back to Basics Education Planning and now “Estate Planning!”

As a reminder this is a high level Financial Planning Education like overview, starting with the basics of and we will continue into advanced topics in order of Planning Importance.  

So who needs Estate Planning?

In a word, everyone should have an Estate Plan and Estate Documents.

As your family complexity increases, the need for Estate Planning documents rises. Young families just starting out with no dependents that may be moving to another state in the very near future can have a brief hall pass as each state has its own unique rules, but the clock is ticking.

Couples with a dependent, you need an Estate plan!

Even with simple family situations, as we get older, statistically we get closer to utilizing these documents, thereby increasing our need.

Any further complexities, as an example multiple assets, multiple dependents, some type of unique family situation, you absolutely must have a good Estate Plan and Estate Planning documents.

Why do we need estate plan documents?

Without them you are leaving your wishes recklessly in the hands of the public domain via the court system for a prolonged timeframe and an unfamiliar person, (a judge), to try and guesstimate what your wishes would have been, using the general rules of the state you reside! Not good.

OK enough lecturing on who needs them and why, let’s take the complexity out of Estate Planning and make it very easy for you to prepare and complete the documents.

Rather than go into the complexities of all of the documents, keeping with our “Back to Basics” theme, we are going to go into what you need to think about to easily complete all of your Estate Documents. Don’t worry about the fancy legal and financial terms, if you can answer the following few questions, your Estate Documents can be easily completed …

So here we go!

If something happens to one of the couple, the general rule is the other is the primary default, hence the following terminology for decisions.

If something happens to both you and your spouse at the same time, Who will be in charge of administrating your estate and who is the backup person? This is called your executor.

If something happens to both you and your spouse, who will take care of your minor children? This is called guardian.

Assuming you and your spouse once again are gone, who will take care of the financial stuff for your minor children? This is called your Trustee and you’ll need at least one back up.

At what age do you want you’re now grown children, once again assuming you and your spouse are gone, to distribute financial assets? This is the terminal clauses of your trust, a very common age is 1/3 at age 25, 30 and 35 but parameters can vary widely. Trusts cannot be perpetual and therefore must eventually end.

Lastly, a very unlikely scenario, but one that should be answered, if everyone in your immediate family… you, your spouse, and minor children should perish, think of where you would like your assets to be distributed i.e. beneficiaries.

Other Documents

There are a few simple peripheral documents such as Power of Attorney (POA) and healthcare power of attorney that will need decisions, but we find if you have answered the above questions you likely already have a person that fits each of these roles.

One planning tip: Try and match the personality of your person to the role, i.e. the caring family person may be best fit for guardian, a good financial person trustee, a close relative with a very pragmatic attitude and calm and nature, your executor… as this is the most emotional role and comes first.

That’s it, each of those answers fit into a fancy legal term and your legal professional will know exactly how to formulate the appropriate language for your specific state. With the aforementioned answers your Estate Planning documents can be easily created.

Over the years we found many people fearful of the complexity of the documents, when in reality the majority of the problems are simply answering the questions above.

You are now armed with how to easily complete your Estate Documents, why you need them, how to be ready and how to easily complete!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Several Weeks of Consecutive Short Road Trips Finally … FOMC Raises Rates … Spring Friday Crazy Southern Weather

Happily, the schedule shows several road trips in the next few weeks making for a fast May …. Nothing air related, but a nice drive in all different directions in a return to normal…. as also mentioned in our Three Positives Happy Post here mid week….

FED Increases Rates – Jerome Powell

Mid Week, as expected the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell increased the Fed Funds Rates (think our checking accounts) by 1/2 Percent or in Wall Street Speak, 50 basis points… We will talk more about this soon, but wanted to let the Capital Market Dust Settle before diving in….

Friday in the South – Heated Weekend

With near 1000 followers … many from all over the country of friends and clients we like to toss you the rollercoaster ride of deep South Texas weather every once in a while … a high 40 degree mid week start of the day to only top out at 60 this week, was a cool spell …. this weekend Donald the Brain hits 100 in his neck of the woods and we are expecting mid 90’s…

That is ok the cold, rain and ice are gone… Lot’s of water, sunscreen, shade and no extended time in the first round of heat….

Have a Great Friday and super Weekend- Talk next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Three POSITIVE Data Points … Back to Normal Readings…

Enough of all the slowing talk and R – Word discussion…. it’s coming and we all know it…. BUT

Let’s have some fun and look at some very positive data points

TSA Throughput Update

Wow, back to almost normal… this is 2019 versus 2021 … looks like we are hitting the skies…

Guess what, this is without a lot of business travelers…

Way to go Families, you are doing your thing…

Newbies, here are 10 prior reviews for your perusal … none look as good as this one- YAY

Indeed Job Openings

After multiple reviews here upon getting copyright authority, this most recent is looking awesome….

Major metropolitan areas, not only almost doubling in job openings post lockdown, but looking at the lack of steeping of the curve (far right) job fills are on the rise as well!

Marine Traffic – C/O Marine Traffic.com

Almost went with the Flight Aware map, but since we already know TSA Throughput is rocking from our first noted graph, let’s go to the waters….

This is screened for Cargo Vessels (stuff) and Tankers (Oil and the like) ONLY….

Supply chain bottlenecks, look out … there is relief on the horizon….

There you have it, some very good positives to go with for your hump day viewing….

Have a Great “Positives” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

April 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our April 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

April 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Back to Basics Series – Educational Funding

In our continued fun “Back To Basics” Series here we discuss Educational Funding…

Here is one very important item to remember from the post:

Did you notice we put Retirement Planning BEFORE Education planning? Do you recall in Part 3 in Debt Planning we said one of the few good debts are educational related debts ….We of course are not advocating Student debt/loans… but they are available in abundance and again not a bad debt. There are not retirement planning loans…. just saying!

Proxy Vote Reminder

In this post we remind you to please reach out if you have fallen off the list for us to proxy vote for you!

If you are getting those pesky Proxy Notices (some can be small books- oh the trees that are destroyed- digressing) reach out to us, we not only vote the Proxies for you, but we get one single notice for everyone, and Jen has done an excellent job in getting a great deal of those electronically…. Did we say how Green this is?

Capital Market Comments

The Slowdown is Here

We first started speaking of the slowdown in our Q 1 2022 Newsletter here in our “Anatomy of a Slowdown” main aricle actually released in December of 2021….

And then again, here in our Q 2 2022 Newsletter ….

Then again here, here, here, here, and again here.… among a few other times…

Last week the BEA “Officially Released” a negative GDP print as noted here in our post and in this chart….

Never get the timing exactly, but we are not surprised and have been waiving the flag here in our talks and are prepared!

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of May!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

First Negative GDP Print, Half Way to the R Word … Happy Friday …

As mentioned here in our prior post, of the R Word…

A recession is defined by two consecutive negative quarter GDP prints…

This week we are half way there…

BEA Releases Negative Q 1 2022

In this BEA Release Here (Bureau of Economic Analysis) their ADVANCED estimate (it will be revised) came in at -1.4%

That gets us softly (thankfully) half way to the R Word! Hang tight, it likely will get rougher before calmer!

It’s a Friday and this is a bit heavy for the day, but wanted to get it out there for you to see….

Hey kept is short though…

Enjoy your Friday and your Weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Proxy Season is Here Once Again … Why We Vote For You and What to Do if You are Receiving Proxy Voting Information … A Greener World …

Almost all public institutions of all shape and form have what is called a Proxy Vote.

The Proxy is an at least Annual Vote for various items such as approval for management salaries, mergers, company purchases and just an annual approval to continue current services.

Why We Vote Your Proxy

As a regular practice we vote Proxies for all clients. This accomplishes multiple items:

  • Much Greener – We get one statement for literally 100’s of client votes
  • We actually vote – always for management – if we disagreed we would not own the respective asset
  • We keep a permanent record of the vote
  • By voting for you, your mailbox is not stuffed full this time of the year

We try to receive electronic information as much as possible – this is once again green but much of this information is still delivered the old fashion way by snail mail

What to Do If You are Receiving Proxy Information

Occasionally Proxy directives for us to vote for you falls off the system …

When this occurs your mailbox will begin getting full…

No worry, just reach out and we can easily refresh your directives back to us and stop the pelting of mail.

Given the large number of collective votes, we do not know if you have fallen off the directives list, so please do not hesitate to ask us for a refresh.

Have a Great “Proxy Vote Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

An Original Epiphany thought on the Federal Reserve/FOMC and their Interest Rate talk from Weekend discussion and studies

Frequently Saturday morning is met with several long time acquaintances as our paths cross in timely fashion at the local Starbucks.

After a few pleasantries, the normal economic and market update question was presented. Maybe it was the extra restful sleep, maybe it was just starting the weekend out bright with a new thought, either way this possible Epiphany was worth sharing.

FOMC Talks Rates Up

What if the federal reserve, FOMC led by chair Jerome Powell were able to aggressively talk interest rates up, which they have done, but not actually have to raise rates near to the level of their chatter?

Currently using our Old Faithful CME Fed Watch interest rate tracker tool….8-10 Yes (8-10 WOW) normal rates priced into markets by July 2022…

95% Chance/Market Expecting/Pricing a 1.75% to 2.25% Rate by July – currently rates at .25%-.50%

So why would the federal reserve want extra room to not have to raise rates? If the economy naturally slows or goes into a recession and the Federal Reserve has raised rates very little it could be easily construed that they could say it wasn’t their fault!

Longshot, maybe, but if we were sitting in their perch that would be a nice safety net to have!

We listen and constantly research different thoughts by different folks and have not heard this in any venue!

So you heard it here first, thanks Starbuck buddies, for the new possibility!

Have a Great “Federal Reserve has an Out” day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Taxes are Done… Well at least most… Spring is here, Mosquito Bite Proves… Friday

Monday after a long holiday weekend made for the final day of the regular form 1040 Tax filing day… yay

Extenders, which there are many, we will wrap up those as the needed documents arrive, but for the most part all the hard work is complete.

As mentioned earlier, we like the firm date of filing, but it does make for extraordinary busy days… all good of course…

Speaking of taxes, for those that have not, we always like a copy for our records for review and safe keeping… amazing how many threads of light our tax return will shed if needed… Thanks to all of those who have already shared a copy!!

Spring has Sprung

Usually the faithful tree out back makes for a good Spring has Sprung alert…. this year with the holiday and late spring, it came and went before we could make note here…. BUT the mosquito bite is a sure, but much less pleasurable sign Spring has Sprung….

Ahhhhh, but today is a Friday on a Spring has Sprung Weekend… Enjoy and talk next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents