As we stated in our Q 1 2009 Newsletter, we felt the markets would at least “Test the November Lows of 2008” some time in the first or second quarter, our guess was sometime in May.
As of Friday, Feb. 27, the lows of 2008 were tested and actually violated by several indexes. While in many camps this technical analysis is not given much weight, there are many investors as of late who are following these levels. A violation simply means the markets in fact did go below the lows of November, a line in the sand of sorts; and as such, we expect a bumpy ride with most likely swift negative effects in the short term on the capital markets. Headlines may read “Markets fall to Lowest Levels in XX Years.”
This, of course, does not change our thinking in any manor or form as this is part of the process of the capital markets regaining their footing and is very common process of going through a recession. Patience! JK