As we have mentioned here and here, November and December are historically the best times for markets, with the latter having pole position.
While no one knows for certain, and we are watching a ton of different indicators, here are three items of note, worth reviewing.
Before we begin, earnings – one of the most important part of capital markets future, are still positive and this year looks to be one of the best on record!
Three Grinch items to review
Inversion Watch – 10 year treasury yield
We have spoken tons of time about the inverted yield curve and a major part of that curve as well as the inversion, is the current rate of the 10 year yield. This chart shows the recent movement of the 10 year yield moving down – this could be expectations of a slower future economy/growth OR it could be just some big money buying bonds – either way, a Grinch twinge to the capital markets.
Technical testing of markets
Oddly, even as we mention in this post the Grinch – in reality the capital market participants are taking their sweet time to test and re-test their levels – ignoring the happy months of November and December – Whatever makes you happy guys!
Is Sentiment Grinchy? – Worth Watching
With 2/3rds of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) being consumer spending, consumer confidence is one of the most important parts of the economy – No Grinch here!
Capital Markets have forecasted many more bad times than have occurred – but in so doing they have also accurately forecasted “Bad Times!” – For now, we are doing our “No Grinch” dance, but watching closely and respecting all!
This week a funny thing happened … on the yield curve that is, garnering a lot of attention. Those following our writings, here, here, and here, know we are watching for an inverted yield curve since it has a good predictive nature for recessions – a topic for another discussion. Heck, even Kent Smetters, the Wharton co-host professor mentioned the yield curve had inverted.
Inverted Yield Curve? Kinda!
Here is a good picture of a normal yield curve
Inversion occurs when the short term rate goes higher than the long term rate i.e. the 2 year greater than the 10 or even more clearly, the 90 day rate greater than the 10 year…
What happened this week were the 2 and 5 year yields, slightly inverting –
Does this count?
Maybe? BUT the real predictability is from the afore mentioned short and long, not short and slightly longer short…
Here is the 2 and 10’s, followed by the 90 day and 10’s
It may invert, and we will let you know when it happens, if it happens, but for now, in our minds ….
Hello and Welcome to our November 2018 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!
If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!
Newbies – We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!
November – 2018 Video
Financial Planning Tip (s) –
Clump – Maximizing the new standard deduction
With a $12k individual standard deduction and double that for joint filers it takes work to maximize the standard deduction threshold… Add the fact that SALT State and Local Tax deductions are now limited to $10k annually, clumping expenses into one year as mentioned here in our post and visually below may be the only way to get above the standard deductions for many …
Capital Market Comments –
Powell Signals a Slower Rate Increase
Current FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) chairman Jerome Powell signaled the rate increases may be closer to over than just was stated just a month earlier… where a December increase, which is still almost certain, but three additional increases were promised in 2019 – not any more.
Given the long/lower rates of the last decade, it is not a surprise that the new normal may be lower –
Market Participants cheered this statement!
Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of December!
Once a year, luckily we are invited to a local event that includes over 70 – yes it has grown to 70 publicly traded company visits and presentations…
Annual Southwest Ideas Conference
Through two close friends, one who organizes the event and the other who owns the company that organizes the event, we are invited, luckily, once again to the Southwest Ideas Conference here in Dallas –
This year’s event includes over 70 publicly traded companies of various size, location and industry –
We love this event as it gives us a chance to not only meet C – level executives of these companies up close and personal, but to also hear their outlooks, economic forecasts, insights, and general feelings of what is going on in their various industries….
We look forward to the rapid fire, multi-meeting all day event and look forward to bringing you any interesting updates that we may stumble upon…
In addition to the above Unemployment level, average hourly earnings were also released and they were up 3.1% year over year — breathing a much needed pay increase to many ….
The bad news for many is that they believe these good numbers will give the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ammunition for continued rate increases.
Currently FOMC members are on record saying they will raise rates in December and three more times next year (2019).
The worry is an eventual inverted yield curve – which we have mentioned many times is a very good precursor to a recession!
By looking at this chart, we are far from an inverted yield curve at this time- leading us to believe this “Good News = Bad News” may be very unwarranted…
In our explanative post here, we overview the RMD season items …. and remind those in the first year of their chose to defer or take …
RMD $$ mandated amounts are determined by the value of applicable accounts on the last day of the prior year
Current year age is a necessary factor included in calculating the RMD – see below next, first time exception – each year of seasoning (getting older) we are forced to take more out of the applicable accounts – hey the IRS has never taxed us on these in many cases – it’s their time!
After tax contributions to a qualified account MUST be accounted for in order to avoid taxes – here are greater details and our taxpayer obligations on this – don’t overpay – the IRS is not tracking this and will not come to the rescue and lower your taxes
All of an individual’s accounts must be included/totaled/value (certain exceptions are made to those continuing to work) to ascertain the needed distribution
Any one account can be used to satisfy the needed distribution (you do not have to take a little from each account, making it easier from an organization standpoint) BUT you must take at least the minimum distribution
Failure to take the mandated distribution amount COULD result in a 100% tax – Break in – our experience has been the IRS is nice about this, but let’s not test them
Social Security COLA Bump
Congratulations to those on a fixed income, the Social Security Administration SSA’s favorite inflation gauge measured a 2.8% increase, which we review in our post here and also even created this neat historical graph for our collective review…
Capital Market Comments –
Suddenly it’s Raining?
After a drop at the beginning of 2018 – mostly blamed on a creative synthetic product that bets risk will stay low (XIV) our patience was rewarded and footing found … until Ugly October came to roost…
What Gives?
At this time, no one with 100% certainty, can pin point what turned the market sky’s grey and sent rain…
Oddly, it may not be any one thing, just like an auto accident – usually multiple items occur at the same time that lead to an opening for contact with another …
Here are our best thoughts in order of our priority/possibility – again no one knows for sure…
Trendy high flying stocks that have been a momentum favorite, suddenly took it on the chin – alone in time not a big deal – seen next
Most mutual funds and many other assets managers close their books at the end of October – many heavily invested in the above trendy stocks had their year turn very ugly right at the finish line, possibly setting a musical chair like exit, causing much more volatility than what would have otherwise occurred if not so near the end of many fiscal years – an extra worry juggle ball in the air
Mid-Term elections are finally here, and it is unlikely anyone can predict with any certainty the outcome of the elections – capital market participants hate uncertainty – not a big deal if this was all they are watching, but another juggle/worry ball up in the air
Interest Rate Increase banter on how many an how long rates will increase before being “Normal” – we have discussed in great length the inverted yield curve and while we are no where near this event, yes… another juggle worry ball in the air
Tarif Talk has been around all year, but looks to come to more of a peak near the end of the year – yet another worry/juggle ball up in the air
The good news is the sun will likely come out again soon, but in true rain like fashion, it seems like the days go by SLOOOOWER when your stuck inside, under cover, without sun!
The GREAT news is earnings have been for the most part very good, not GREAT and screaming as they had earlier in the year, but still very good by comparison.
MAYBE ? – we are just overdue for a correction – This fantastic chart from our friends at JPMorgan reminds us all that these type of corrections are more of the norm, not the abnorm – we have just been without regular bouts for some time!
Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of November!
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial advisor prior to investing!
Background
The is the vocal portion of J.K. Financial, Inc. a Dallas Texas Based Fee Only Total Wealth Financial Planning Firm. Founded by John Kvale, a Dallas Texas Fee only Financial Planner and Total Wealth Manager.
Who brought the Grinch to a usually Happy December Markets – Three Possible Items
As we have mentioned here and here, November and December are historically the best times for markets, with the latter having pole position.
While no one knows for certain, and we are watching a ton of different indicators, here are three items of note, worth reviewing.
Three Grinch items to review
Inversion Watch – 10 year treasury yield
We have spoken tons of time about the inverted yield curve and a major part of that curve as well as the inversion, is the current rate of the 10 year yield. This chart shows the recent movement of the 10 year yield moving down – this could be expectations of a slower future economy/growth OR it could be just some big money buying bonds – either way, a Grinch twinge to the capital markets.
Technical testing of markets
Oddly, even as we mention in this post the Grinch – in reality the capital market participants are taking their sweet time to test and re-test their levels – ignoring the happy months of November and December – Whatever makes you happy guys!
Is Sentiment Grinchy? – Worth Watching
With 2/3rds of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) being consumer spending, consumer confidence is one of the most important parts of the economy – No Grinch here!
Capital Markets have forecasted many more bad times than have occurred – but in so doing they have also accurately forecasted “Bad Times!” – For now, we are doing our “No Grinch” dance, but watching closely and respecting all!
Have a Great “No Grinch” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents
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Posted in Economy, General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments
Tagged 10 Year, 10 Year Treasury, Consumer Sentiment, Inverted Yield Curve, Technical Analysis