Category Archives: Market Comments

On the Way Back Home … Saw Sharpened … Social Security Discussion About to Get Jiggy … Friday

Thanks to technology … another fun restful time in a cooler climate is almost complete.

The journey back home with the 14 year old’s early birthday present begins over the weekend.

JK Starbucks Cooler Climate Office

Cooler Climate Office – Starbucks

With a neat visit from cousins, sister-in-law, sister and brother-in-law, and my 91 year old father and spouse, it was a success ….

This year the calendar even included our 19th year wedding anniversary celebration…. as well as an government town shutdown conspiracy theory research visit…

Thanks for all of the above!

Time for Sharpening the Saw

While getting family time and some rest away from the concrete is part of the experience, clarity of thoughts, deep reading and research, in a quiet place, is also part of the equation ….

We look forward to continued discovery of some items, sun setting of others, and of course open discussions here … Yes of course we have seen the latest market movements (Oddly, here we are again, just like in December, with a amateurs- Digressing)

Are You Ready for Some Social Security/Football

Hope you liked the funny header of this section!

Just a heads up, as the Social Security Discussions are about to get heavy… just what we have been waiting for right?

The next three posts will conclude the Spousal Retirement Benefits portion and opens the way for Medicare discussions – However, these posts will be heavy with details… we love it, and enjoy the challenge as it may take more than one read/listen for complete understanding!!

With the end of Summer in view – not gone yet- the beginning of Fall Sports commences …

Today is a  Friday, be safe if you are traveling, talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Fed Walked the Tight Rope Perfectly – Preview of New Scammers You Need to be Aware – Friday

On Wednesday July 31, 2019 the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell and attended by our own Dallas based Robert Kaplan, did something they have not done in over 10 years…. LOWER RATES.

8-1-19 FOMC FED funds rate

While we crowed ‘Not Necessary” they walked a great tight rope…

In this post announcement article…. and  somewhat funny CNBC article, over a dozen … so called “Expert” firms completely disagree in all directions on what the Fed will do next!

PERFECT!

With disagreement on what they will do next, no expectation will be ….. well … EXPECTED!

If I were a Fed official, that is exactly the way you want it … freedom to stay put, lower or raise without fussy Market Participants all weighing in on the same side of the fence.

They also stopped the winding down (selling reserves back to the market) of balance sheet reduction, which was a net tightening.

8-1-19 Total Bank Assets

So let’s say they are in neutral now and have created the freedom to drive wherever they want! Nice..

Sorry we got a bit deep on this, this week, but we felt it important and wanted to keep you in the know!

Speaking of in the know – We have collected a few new examples of scamming that we will bring to your attention next week – One so clever it’s hard to believe!

Ahhh…but it is a Friday….

Care to guess what today and next week brings?

tennis-2042723__340

Last looong, big tournament of the summer…..

Thanks goodness for a new unlimited Cell plan and neat technology … Will be in touch!

Have a GREAT Friday/Weekend Summer day(s)!

John A. Kvale, CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Our First Accidental Post in almost 2000, the Perils of Bad Wifi Connections – All Eyes on the FOMC next week – Friday

On Wednesday at 9:23 AM, just over an hour before the regularly scheduled 10:30 am post was to go — a quick review of the 10:30 post led to an update from the Ipad which had saved data on the device and then updated it when the review occurred… and some how sent the following title …

img_4065

If you saw it and wondered… now you know – for the record first time in almost 2000 posts now! Of course some have gone off at 10:30 pm rather than am and earlier than planned – but this was the first totally unplanned post – sorry for the confusion, if it caused any! I like to think of it as authenticity 😀

FOMC in View

Next week the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) let by Jerome Powell and attended by our on local Dallas President, Robert Kaplan – (our newly admired local president) better lower rates!

It’s hard to feel like they must lower rates as the global economy is slowing but not falling off a cliff …. Their (FOMC) public rhetoric has led Market Participants to be almost certain they are going to lower. If they don’t lower rates – disappointment!

Should be interesting!

Have a GREAT Friday and a Super Weekend – talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Q 3 2019 Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 3 2019 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click Here for direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going!

Q 3 2019 Newsletter

Click for PDF/printable version of Newsletter

And here is your review!

Why We Write!

Here we are again:20190630_133340742_iOS

We had planned on leaving this out due to repeated appearances here in our blog and in the Newsletter – but in true “Break In” like format, as this post is completed and the video – hopefully the local wifi is strong enough for uploading … the time is spent in Austin Texas at this moment in another rain delay- the same exact place the original article was written!

Tax Talk/Review

Change Likely the New Normal

After two decades of only minor changes in the Tax Law… it was overhauled and many changes were made that were reflected in our 2018 tax returns.

This neat chart is a nice reminder of the current brackets and can be helpful in income distribution tax bracket management.
Tax Bracket Graph

Inverted Yield Curve Update

This chart featured in our Newsletter is a slightly different term comparison of the 2 year (we like the 90 day) versus the 10 year, but a wonderful historical view of inversions and recessions. We have fully inverted for over a month now and if we use this historic guide as our yardstick a recession would be in the cards mid year 2020!

JPMorgan Inverted Yield Curve History

Social Security Update3-20-19 - Invitatation to SS Info Event with Tom Clark_Page_2

We have begun a detailed review of the late spring event and it is going great. Weekly we dissect a section of Social Security Expert, Tom Clark’s presentation and give handy links to greater details and explain in bullet fashion the main points. Here is a link to the Audio on a special page here at our blog and you can also click here for a link that will pull up each complete post!

There are tons of nuances regarding Social Security, Disability, Death Benefit and Medicare decisions…we look forward to discussing many more with you as the summer weeks occur!

We hope you enjoy … talk to you near the end of Summer!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

June 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our June 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

June – 2019 Video

 

Break In:

The Perot Museum Thursday November 14th, 2019 from 6:30 to 9 PM for a fun filled event!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

 

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Password Safe Keeping Idea and 1 Minute Video

After attending a conference that mentioned multiple times the troubles associated with Digital Assets AKA your passwords, a brain storming session led to this terrific post about how to safeguard your password, upload to the private portion of your Vault, password your document, and then refresh occasionally. A possible Excel file with links that is itself heavily/strong password protected!

We even completed a video and added it to our Video page on our main website here!

 

Capital Market Comments –

FOMC Pre and Post Meeting Update

Here in the Preview meeting post and with Robert Kaplan audio (below) explaining how he and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) go about determining what to do with rates, we also mentioned many expecting a LOWERING of rates….just a few quarters ago, unthinkable.

Here is the Kaplan Audio:

MP3 File

Wave File

Post meeting Market Participants…

Fast forward to our Post Meeting Post here , and while we did not get a lowering of rates, the great consensus feel like the following quote signaled they are coming all garnered from this statement and supported by the lowered GDP expectations – chart below:

“…. but uncertainties about this outlook have increased…”

6-19-19 GDP Estimate FOMC

For a sleepy time of the year, there is a lot going on – That’s what we are here for!

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of July!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

FOMC Meeting and Interest Rate Update from Last Week

Last week, here in our preview of the meeting post, we discussed what the Federal Open Market Committee would likely review via the fortunate lunch with local Dallas Federal Reserve Chair Robert Kaplan and even had direct audio from the event.

We know it’s summer and we know many of you may be taking much needed R and R, but the FOMC meeting last week was surprisingly important.

Bottom Line: No rate lowering but rhetoric that was taken by market participants as a lowering is in the cards sooner rather than later!

Important Update Meeting Review

Jerome Powell, FOMC Chair released his decision to NOT lower rates ….

our comments….

From information gathered via the audio and economic data points available at the time, we felt strongly that the FOMC would not LOWER rates, that’s in bold because until just recently, many thought future increases may be in the cards.

However … this statement, in the FOMC press release was deemed to mean rates will be lower at the next meeting, which put wind int he sails of Capital Markets …

“The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook have increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”

Here is the joint estimate of FOMC members for  GDP (Gross Domestic Production-broadest estimate of US growth) for the remainder of the year … note an expectation of slightly slower growth for the remainder of the year and into 2020/21:

6-19-19 GDP Estimate FOMC

There is also a Dot Chart that shows where FOMC members expect rates to be over the same time period, but it was a mess and confusing…so we left it out!

Not playing Economist here, but there is a lot of room for lowering or NOT lowering as well… time will tell, but for now the general consensus for the next meeting which is at the end of July (30-31) is for a lowering of rates, at least by most Market Participants or those with a microphone  …. Call us skeptical of agreeing at this time….

Bottom Line: No rate lowering but rhetoric that was taken by market participants as a lowering is in the cards sooner rather than later!

There are some nice positives that come with these expectations… Mortgage Rates will likely continue to stay low and may even go lower!

Sorry if we got into the weeds, but we wanted to clarify the slightly blurry statement, reaction, and expectations!

Have a Great “FOMC Meeting Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents