Category Archives: Market Comments

July 2018 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our July 2018 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format.

July 2018 Video

 

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Social Security – Taking Early

The general rules of Social Security are to wait until as long as you can. In our post here, and the chart below, may give pause to that thinking.

Many situations are different, deeming great thought and analysis needed before commencing OR delaying your Social Security Benefits.

2018 Social Security Crossover

Favorite Pension Benefit Option

Joint Survivor – As mentioned above in our Social Security review, situations vary. While our favorite options for Pensions is the 100% joint survivor –

  • Less Changes in the future
  • Straight forward
  • Simple

As mentioned in greater detail, in our post here, consider all options before making your final decision as this one is irrevocable !

Capital Market Comments

Turns Out, Over the Long Term Earnings do Drive Markets

With earnings booming and Capital Markets treading water, this chart caught our eye and in this post we discussed in greater detail current earnings AND the fact that over the longer term (see chart below) markets do EVENTUALLY react to earnings.

7-13-18 EPS Growth and Mkt Growth 10 year avg

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of August!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Tariff Update – AKA Trade Wars in the Old Days – Sure Enough we have been here before?

Over the past 30 years, much of what we learned are what opinions to trust, which views to listen to, and more importantly, who to tune out.

Scott Grannis, former chief economist for a large financial company and currently retired with no intention of returning to work (NO BIASES!) is one of our favorite reads. Here is a very small portion, but a favorite on the Tariff wars from Scott and his Blog “Calafia Beach Pundit” – he lives in CA currently.

“In the past 12 months, the US has imported about $525 billion of Chinese goods, while at the same time exporting to China only $135 billion. China is selling almost four times more “stuff” to us than we are selling to them. So, the thinking goes, if both countries jack up tariff rates to prohibitive levels, the Chinese have much more to lose than we do, particularly since our economy is still half again as big as China’s. At some point the Chinese will wave the white flag, we’ll all agree to reduce or eliminate tariffs and intellectual property right theft, and sweetness and light will return to international trade relations.

We can’t rule out a successful end to today’s tariff wars, but neither can we be confident that they will inexorably lead to a repeat of the Smoot-Hawley tariff wars which in turn led to the Great Recession. I continue to believe that tariffs are so universally understood to be bad and even stupid that eventually our leaders will do the right thing and make trade freer and fairer. Why bet against what would be a win-win for all parties? (Zero tariffs are an economist’s dream, since by facilitating free trade they would be a boon to all countries.)”

Trade Wars History – This is not our First Time

Follow his comments up with an excellent updated chart on the subject matter from our friends at Visual Capitalist, and we will let you formulate your own opinion – an opinion that is likely more updated than before reading this post!

Have a “Tariff Trade War Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

90 Day Treadmill aka Earnings Update and Neat 10 year Chart

Earnings are the ultimate driver of capital markets.

Growth or the expectation of growth and markets will EVENTUALLY (patience may be needed at times) rise.

Contraction of earnings – think recession- markets will go down, no patience needed on this one, as markets frequently do not waste time in their contraction.

Earnings Update

We frequently quote our Friends at Factset as they do a fantastic job of reviewing every detail of earnings each 90 Day Treadmill/Quarter …. too much of course can lead to YAAAWN … we get it, but we have to keep an eye on this stuff even during Summer Doldrums-

Here is a latest update-

  • Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2018 (with 5% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 89% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 85% have reported a positive sales surprise. 
  • Earnings Growth: For Q2 2018, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 19.9%. If 19.9% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the second highest earnings growth since Q3 2010 (34.1%). 
  • Earnings Revisions: On June 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q2 2018 was 20.0%. Four sectors have lower growth rates today (compared to June 30) due to downward estimate revisions and negative earnings surprises. 
  • Earnings Guidance: For Q2 2018, 62 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 47 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. 
  • Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.6. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (16.2) and above the 10-year average (14.4).

Ok, so earnings are moving along pretty good as managers continue to navigate tax cuts and a frisky consumer.

Our theme of the year “Patience” is still in order – but take a look at this neat chart –

Neat 10 Year Review of Earnings and Market Movement

 

7-13-18 EPS Growth and Mkt Growth 10 year avg

There is a correlation in earnings and capital market growth- patience and fingers crossed for continued fantastic earnings growth!

Have a Great “Continued Positive Earnings” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Second Quarter 2018 Cover Letter Review

On the road to nowhere? Or are we?

While capital markets around the globe may seem subdued, especially compared to last year’s movements, looking beneath the surface there is much going on.

Increased Company Earnings

With the corporate tax cuts, earnings are increasing. Public companies are enjoying terrific earnings growth and logging excellent earnings reports as the year continues. With little movement in capital markets and increased earnings, valuations by most any measure, are becoming less expensive. Also, worth notice in our Q3 Newsletter is a detailed article concerning lowered numbers of public traded companies, a possible source of different valuations moving forward.

Financially Happy Consumer

Broadly, the consumer from a financial standpoint is doing well. A happy consumer, leading to a more freely spending consumer, is an important point for the United States since the Gross Domestic Economy is made up of over two thirds consumer spending. Much of this financial happiness comes before a lower tax burden, likely to be felt by consumers next tax season – again in our Q3 Newsletter there are multiple family scenarios detailing the tax savings due next year.

Interest Rates

Market participants have digested multiple rate increases in stride, unlike times before. With gradual rate increases already occurring in the year, and more expected, normalization of interest rates is occurring without the fears of past. Being the first time in almost a decade to have rate increases, we are on Inverted Yield Curve watch (detailed article again in our Q3 Newsletter) as a possible predictor that rates have moved too far, and a signal of a possible recession. So far this has not occurred.

In closing, our patience theme from the beginning of the year seems to be still best suited.

Have a Great Summer!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Q 3 2018 Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 3 2018 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click here for direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going!

Q 3 2018 Newsletter

And here is your review!

Inverted Yield Curve

In this hugely in depth article was originally ran in abbreviated form, here, here, here, here and here on street-cents.com-

Here is the key graph-

2s 10s Spread W Recession sfredgraph

The inverted yield curve has been a good predictor of recessions.

Three Key Tax Items

In our detailed article in the Newsletter, we address the three key tax change items-

  1. Higher Standard Deduction
  2. Lower Tax Rates
  3. Less Deductions

 

Where have all the Stocks Gone?

In this Article we discuss the absence of stocks over the past several decades, leading to possible higher valuations.

2017 Declining Stocks US and World Comparison

Enjoy your summer-

See Ya next Quarter!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

June 2018 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our June 2018 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format.

June 2018 Video

BREAK IN : Summer Project Update – Finding Your Lost Money

Wow, we have had fun with this — our biggest find so far is a little over $5k AND COUNTING – keep your eyes on your email for a summer present if we are fortunate enough to find lost funds in your name – also send us your relatives who may have fallen out of connection with … well their hard earned money!

Pot of gold luck-152048_1280

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

To Itemize we must CLUMP

In our clumping post here, we discuss the need to clump – look no farther than the following hand written graph for the reasons- Standard deductions and limited itemizations make it hard to do every year!

Clumping Taxes

 

Handy Travel App

This is one of the few apps that has paid for itself many times over in less than a year. Not to mention the convenience or quick, email forwarding logging of the trip. That is just the tip of the iceberg as mentioned in our article here.

Tripit

 

Updated Tax Rates Compared to 2017 – Personal

This nice chart from the Tax Foundation shows pretty much across the board – see more details here and our coming Newsletter

TAX Comparison 18 to 17 FINAL-TCJA-Filers-Chart

Expect much more on this throughout the coming months as we dig DEEP into the actual rates and the planning techniques necessary to optimize our tax liability …. One Important five letter word…. CLUMP – more later on this in our Newsletter

Capital Market Comments

Stunning 50% Drop in Public Companies

Over the past several decades, there has been a greater than 50% – yes, 50% drop in publicly traded companies in the USA – same demand, less supply may make for higher prices moving forward- or at least the sustainability of higher than historical prices- read more here and our Newsletter!

2017 Declining Stocks US and World Comparison

 

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of July!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Your Guide to how much Tariff talk should Matter – World Exports in One Chart

Thanks to our friends at howmuch.net, an absolute timely chart on the total goods and services moving around the world.

We find this interesting given the rhetoric being bantered around in the headlines and giving capital markets an excuse to frown!

Take a moment to see rhetoric versus total exports/trade-

top-exporters-countries-2017-d071

Have a Great “Total Value Export Informed” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com