For those of you with a memory like an elephant, congratulations, you may recall that we have delightfully attended the Mauldin Strategic Investor Conference (SIC) virtually during lockdown for the past two years. As a side note, a conference that we had never attended before due to the duration and the timing … very near tax time!
Good news, once again this year the conference was virtual and we are happy to attend.
While there were 40+ speakers, more to come on others, we found the following expert and presentation very interesting, if not somewhat controversial.
Barry Habib, Mortgage and Residential Housing Expert
You may recognize Barry as he is a regular speaker on many of the financial channels among other and was a presenter at this year’s SIC conference.
Cutting to the chase, Barry expects a recession later this year or early 2023 and as such expects mortgage rates in particular to drop precipitously from their current 5 1/2% rate along with all rates of other asset types.
These expectations, (forecasts), are certainly more economic and financial market related, as such we will make note as predictions and check back sometimes next year.
Now, to Barry’s wheelhouse, what we are all interested in, the expectation of housing appreciation or depreciation!
Understanding that Barry comes from a residential and mortgage background, so let’s be transparent that there may be some innate biases, but his expectations are for mid to low single-digit housing appreciation for this year 2022.
This flies in the face of many forecasters due to the aforementioned slow down or R- word recession and more importantly the heightened interest rates of Mortgages currently.
In Barry’s defense, lack of supply and his expectations of a sharp reversal in mortgage rates will lend itself to this continued growth.
Heck if housing prices hold their values we would consider Barry’s prediction a win.
There will certainly be pockets of strength and weakness across the country…
We will be watching as it’s very easy to monitor and will let you know!
Barry …thanks very much for a fantastic presentation and for the information duly noted…
Have a Great “Housing Analysis and Forecast” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents
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$treet-¢ents 
Signs of a less aggressive FOMC/Jerome Powell ? … First time in a long time less happy to see the longest daylight day of the year pass … Summer Friday heading into Fourth of July …
Mid this week FOMC chair Jerome Powell in front of a legislative public speaking event, for the first time mentioned that the FOMC could not decrease oil prices and food prices via faster interest rate hikes.
OK, we may take issue with this slightly because if they beat demand down enough, it will most certainly put headwinds to higher prices of both of these assets. However more importantly, this was possibly the first sign of a less aggressive FOMC, again shared by Jerome Powell.
Instantaneously capital markets took notice of the comments with a much happier tone as did interest rates with an extremely happier tone as well…
Interestingly, and speaking out loud to everyone our thoughts, just two weeks ago, a much harsher tone was voiced by Powell …given that fact, it’s way too soon to say the FOMC has taken their foot off the brake a little bit ….. Heck we still have a lot of economic data to get through for the next few quarters… some of which may be very hot and could have the federal reserve reverse course once again… but maybe it is a start..
We will be watching, but wanted to let you know a possible interesting breadcrumb that occurred this week.
Hot Hot Hot
With an unusually, extremely, hot summer shaping up here in the south, breaking hundred degree days by the week, we wave goodbye to the longest day of the year with less sorrow this year and a bit of trepidation on what August … the seasonally hottest month of the year may bring.
Still better than ice and snow that no one here, present party included, knows how to drive on!
Today is a Friday, getting near Fourth of July midpoint of the year, enjoy your day and your weekend, and if you’re near us, stay hydrated and be careful out there!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
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Posted in Debt - Debt Management, Economy, FOMC, General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments
Tagged FOMC, Interest Rates, Jerome Powell, Less Aggressive FOMC