Over the past 30 years, much of what we learned are what opinions to trust, which views to listen to, and more importantly, who to tune out.
Scott Grannis, former chief economist for a large financial company and currently retired with no intention of returning to work (NO BIASES!) is one of our favorite reads. Here is a very small portion, but a favorite on the Tariff wars from Scott and his Blog “Calafia Beach Pundit” – he lives in CA currently.
“In the past 12 months, the US has imported about $525 billion of Chinese goods, while at the same time exporting to China only $135 billion. China is selling almost four times more “stuff” to us than we are selling to them. So, the thinking goes, if both countries jack up tariff rates to prohibitive levels, the Chinese have much more to lose than we do, particularly since our economy is still half again as big as China’s. At some point the Chinese will wave the white flag, we’ll all agree to reduce or eliminate tariffs and intellectual property right theft, and sweetness and light will return to international trade relations.
We can’t rule out a successful end to today’s tariff wars, but neither can we be confident that they will inexorably lead to a repeat of the Smoot-Hawley tariff wars which in turn led to the Great Recession. I continue to believe that tariffs are so universally understood to be bad and even stupid that eventually our leaders will do the right thing and make trade freer and fairer. Why bet against what would be a win-win for all parties? (Zero tariffs are an economist’s dream, since by facilitating free trade they would be a boon to all countries.)”
Trade Wars History – This is not our First Time
Follow his comments up with an excellent updated chart on the subject matter from our friends at Visual Capitalist, and we will let you formulate your own opinion – an opinion that is likely more updated than before reading this post!
Have a “Tariff Trade War Update” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
July 2018 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale
Hello and Welcome to our July 2018 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!
If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format.
July 2018 Video
Financial Planning Tip (s) –
Social Security – Taking Early
The general rules of Social Security are to wait until as long as you can. In our post here, and the chart below, may give pause to that thinking.
Many situations are different, deeming great thought and analysis needed before commencing OR delaying your Social Security Benefits.
Favorite Pension Benefit Option
Joint Survivor – As mentioned above in our Social Security review, situations vary. While our favorite options for Pensions is the 100% joint survivor –
As mentioned in greater detail, in our post here, consider all options before making your final decision as this one is irrevocable !
Capital Market Comments
Turns Out, Over the Long Term Earnings do Drive Markets
With earnings booming and Capital Markets treading water, this chart caught our eye and in this post we discussed in greater detail current earnings AND the fact that over the longer term (see chart below) markets do EVENTUALLY react to earnings.
Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of August!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
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Posted in General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Monthly Review, Podcast, Retirement Planning, Social Security, Video
Tagged Found Money, Public Stocks, Summer Project, Tax Rates, Tax Table, Tripit