Category Archives: Market Comments

Another Positive Friday …

Last weeks positive Friday garnered so many comments and Thank You’s that I thought it worth repeating as it’s so much easier to find negatives even if you are trying to avoid them…but there are lots of positives occurring.Unity hands-1939895_1280

  • On a very personal note, I’m happy to announce that my 92-year-old father was able to navigate the online virtual doctor appointment with complete success – Now if he can do it, we can do it if need be!
  • The Federal Reserve continues its policies and has begun adding liquidity to the Fixed Income Market – More on this soon
  • There was a $2 trillion stimulus package announced-which is wonderful news and helps bridge businesses and workers
  • It appears multiple countries are beginning to flatten the curve
  • Some parents may be finding out … it’s not the Teacher–hah – (Hat tip Cousin)
  • Spring is one week closer, its getting warmer … and the sun is up longer every day!
  • If we only had three more days like Wednesday we would be back to all time highs in the Capital Markets! (That will make you go hmmm- not kidding)
  • Our Country, Government and residents continue to work together in fantastic unity!

Have a GREAT “Positive” Friday and Weekend, Stay Safe!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

A Positive Friday … Many to Take Note Of – Preview Tips for those with Kids that May Need to Work from Home

There’s no doubt that the virus is serious and certainly causing great disruptions across the workforce, the world, and of course the United States.

But on a glass half full Friday, we wanted to mention some positives!

Positives Garnered from the Recent Week(s)Unity hands-1939895_1280

As a glass half full person, and firm for that matter, it is very nice to see our US Citizens and fellow residents, plan, gather and follow instructions, in order to help knock this out as fast as possible.

It’s also neat to see our Government work together swiftly and in unity to lead in a common goal of relief and extinguish.

It’s also interesting, enlightening, and very positive, to see the worlds countries loosely come together and share information, knowledge, and for that matter funding, to help extinguish this threat.

Lastly … pat yourself on the back,  you have just passed through many interesting unique statistics, which will not be shared at this time as it may be a distraction, but after the dust settles, a full analysis will be reviewed for all of our knowledge, recollection, and future preparations!

This will pass, and while it may seem an impossible mountain, I hope that once we are finished with this, much of the positives that are occurring at this moment can continue forward.

Preview of Working From Home Tips for Kids

We know many of you may be faced with children or young adults doing school work from home. Long time followers know that the 15-year-old traveling Tennis Player is in year two working 100% online from home, airplane, coffee shop, or basically wherever. As such, has granted an interview, in part for her 12-year-old brother who is about to have the same process.

We look forward to sharing her thoughts soon!

Have a Great “Positive Friday” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

 

SPR – Strategic Petroleum Reserve … Neat Facts … About to get filled!

On Friday it was announced that the US Government would take this opportunity to buy oil on the open market and fill the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) …

With our venue here being Informational and Educational, we set off the find more about the SPR.

Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)

With tons of friends and clients in the Energy Sector (likely forgotten more than we will ever know) we hope to get at least one point that you guys do not know … for the rest of us, it is likely most of these may be new as they were to us.

For those as interested (nerdie) as us, here is where the bulk of our information came from.

How Much is in the SPR Now?

3-6-20 SPR Current Inventory

How much can it hold?

Current authorized storage capacity – 713.5 million barrels… so almost 100 million barrels to be added…

Where are the locations (Big Underground Caverns)?

Crude Oil Storage by Site  (as of January 31, 2020)

SPR Sites v3

  • Bryan Mound – holds 230.2 MMB in 20 caverns – 66.7 MMB sweet and 164.0 MMB sour.
  • Big Hill – holds 143.3 MMB in 14 caverns – 62.5 MMB sweet and 81.2 MMB sour.
  • West Hackberry – holds 189.7 MMB in 22 caverns – 102.2 MMB sweet and 87.5 MMB sour.
  • Bayou Choctaw – holds 71.8 MMB in 6 caverns – 18.9 MMB sweet and 51.8 MMB sour.

Why do we have a SPR?

Established in the aftermath of the 1973-74 oil embargo, the SPR was established to counter a disruption in commercial oil supplies which could threaten the U.S. economy. It is also the critical component for the United States to meet its International Energy Agency obligation to maintain emergency oil stocks.

How do you get Oil Out of the SPR? (Neat Fact!)

The fact that oil floats on water is the underlying mechanism used to move oil in and out of the SPR caverns. To withdraw crude oil, fresh water is pumped into the bottom of a cavern. The water displaces the crude oil to the surface. After the oil is removed from the SPR caverns, pipelines send it to various terminals and refineries around the nation.

There you have it, a neat overview …. for those interested, this is just the tip of the SPR Iceberg, as there is a ton of really neat and more thorough information on the link at the beginning of this post and again here

Have a Great “SPR Informed” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

From the Road … FOMC Takes Action Last Night in Response to Shutdowns and Economic Slowdowns

Not wanting to bring a knife to a possible gun fight, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell announced multiple actions in response to Corona and the related shutdowns last night.

FOMC Lowers Rates, Lowers Bank Reserves and Adds Money

On Friday a coalition of private and public groups agreed to begin more testing for the Corona Virus… not surprisingly if you are able to test more, there have been more findings.

Last night the FOMC led by Jerome Powell announced multiple measures to help economic activity:

  • Lowering of Short Term Rates
  • Lowering of Bank Requirements AND encouraging Banks to lend to businesses, especially small businesses with the extra freed up reserves
  • Purchasing of Treasury and Mortgage Securities for Liquidity and lowering of rates

Friday, I mentioned multiple ways to think of the current events… given the above events, here is another example…

  1. The FOMC did all of this, it must really be bad…
  2. Not wanting to get behind, the FOMC is taking advanced actions to help stay in front of disruption and possible slowness…

Choice one is easy and likely will show up somewhere in your sights, if it has not already …. again, choice two is the positive, high road choice, and will only likely be seen here today!

Yes, events are making the Spring Break Trip hard to focus on family and friends, but in a strange way, maybe it is good to be out of the office!

Careful what you intake… drama rises to the top!

Rest assured, as you can tell, we have complete remote access…and again, we are a conservative firm by nature!

Have a Great “FOMC No Knife to Gunfight” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

 

 

 

 

Updated Market Thoughts and Two Corona Resources … Spring Break …Office Hours Next Week

While we have fun in our writings here, the real reason for this venue is for times like now!

Over the recent week there have been a number of events occurring that are causing Capital Market jitters…. here are our updated candid, serious, thoughts.

Market Update and Corona Resources

The cancellation of most sporting and almost any other group events has sent chills down many, and has filtered into the Capital Market movement –

Given our fight our flight wiring, each of us have two ways to digest these events… couple of examples

“Cancellation of almost all sporting and group events!”

  1. Wow, this must be really bad, I better hunker down and get ready for a terrible event…
  2. Wow, they are really doing a great job on nipping this in the bud quickly, this will be over faster than we know!

“Capital Markets are really jumping around, and have dropped in value!”

  1. Wow, the value in my 401k/Investment Portfolio/Company Stock plan has dropped, look at the money if have lost…
  2. Wow, this is what we have been waiting for, we have been prepared and things are on sale finally, in a year, I bet I will be really glad to have re-invested or made additional opportunistic (but not heroic ore reckless) buys!

Clients – We are on point two in both cases, its really easy to go down path one, maybe much easier…but try to stay on point two!

Our Best Corona Resources

In keeping you on point two above, we feel it is important you stay informed… as such we have the following two best of the best websites for Corona Virus Tracking…

Johns Hopkins Dashboard – Mentioned earlier- This is great for tracking specific geographic areas and we are closely monitoring the chart in the far right lower corner for a leveling of growth… this site is updated less frequently but daily at least

Worldometer Corona Tracker – This is updated constantly and give you an almost live feed of information, although not as pretty format as the above…

Blending these two will give you a good, comprehensive view of what it going on… IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT… all of us may not!

We have no idea how long this will last and we have no idea what Capital Markets will do… no one does at this time.

In time, this will pass… when the all clear bell rings, Capital Markets will likely be much higher as relief is priced in quickly!

Careful on your reading or listening in-take… the most EXTREME predictions tend to make the headlines!

Office Hours and Spring Break

Accomplishments for the year continue as next week is Spring Break for the school bound 12 year old,  who was also part of the early year goal to spend more time….

Careful when you give them the go ahead on Spring Break Wishes…grrrr

Current the two of us are out of town, in a warmer place that would accommodate the two dogs… with other family members arriving soon.

We will be in and out of the office next week, but fortunately have good Wifi in our location!

Sorry for the HEAVY post today, but wanting to give you our best and candid thoughts!

Have a Great Friday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

Mortgage Rates Reach ALL TIME LOW According to Freddie Mac … Get Ready, but Wait (days, not weeks) to Pull the Trigger …

As the experience notches in the belt gain in quantity, we have learned the follies of attempting to PREDICT or FORECAST events …. luckily we gave a soft “heads up” that rates MAY be in our corner due to the Corona Virus, and help with longer term Mortgage and other longer term fixed interest rate loans ….

Freddie Mac Reports Lowest Mortgage Rates EVER

According to Freddie Mac….

“The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a record 3.29 percent this week, the lowest level in its nearly 50-year history. ” 3-5-20

img_1354

Here is the deal…. rates fell AGAIN in the most recent week due to fears of Economic slowdown from the Corona Virus…. but maybe TOO FAST for Mortgage and other longer termed Fixed Rate loans to adjust … On Friday, after the above rates were calculated, the 10 year Treasury, our guidepost for rates, dropped another 22 Basis Points or almost another 1/4 point ….. 

Far right, the 10 year treasury yield fell like a rock as fear stoked investment from across the globe…. yesterday for the first time it took a breather as bonds fell and rates rose…no matter, these are Low Low Low rates!

3-10-20 Ten year treasury

Reach out to your bank, Mortgage Broker, or other refinancing officer, and get your documents in order … begin the qualification process but WAIT (days, not weeks) just a bit and check with your loan professional before locking that rate as it is likely the recent drop in rates has not yet dripped through the loan system…. hopefully better loan rates may be in our very near future…

Here is your friendly reminder on Refinancing or not:

“Think 18 months cost break even – We like to have the saving from the refinance cover the cost of the refinance within 18 months – i.e. Person with $30k mortgage at 5% probably would not need to refinance to 4%, but a $3 million mortgage may be smart to refinance from 4.25% to 4% or the like, if the numbers work out.”

Here is the complete Post which contains 11 items to remember when refinancing!

Take advantage of what cards we are dealt!

Have a Great “All Time Low Rates” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Russian Saudi Tiff Leads to Oil Spigot Opened up, FANTASTIC Corona Virus Dashboard … All You Need to Know

Events over the weekend and today’s market movements destroyed the immediate pertinence of a Great Loan Refinancing Post … it will be even more timely after the dust settles on the current events…

More important now in our minds, knowledge of what is going on…

You will likely run into multiple stories today that may not tell the complete picture due to the 140 character world we all want to live in, so we wanted to clear the air and arm you with straight forward information.

Saudi Russian Tiff Leads to Spigot Opening

Over the weekend, last Saturday afternoon after an OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Export Countries) meeting where Russia stepped away from the meeting and the organizations policies …. Saudi officials announce a Shock and Awe spigot turn on and directly attacked certain Russian markets with even lower initial oil price sales… Here is a great Bloomberg Article that you should be able to read even without a subscription (3 free reads a month) …

Key Takeaways:

  • Overzealous Egos know no barriers (Not kidding)
  • Lower Oil Prices will seep into your life and pocket book in the form of savings
  • This has nothing to do with the Corona Virus 
  • Markets will be jittery because of the prior point fear

Corona Virus Update

Donald the Brain located the best comprehensive dashboard site (may need patience as many are sharing this wonderful site, putting pressure on the page) I have seen, this is from Johns Hopkins University …. feel free to move the center globe around to your location and see just exactly how many cases are near… (likely not as many as you think)

Here is a fantastic chart from the dashboard that shows a high level picture of the Virus outbreaks, but also the recovered…

3-9-20 Corona Virus Infections rate

  • Looks like China has a handle on this already…(Top line)
  • New location Ex China virus confirmations may already be topping (Bottom line)
  • Recoveries are accelerating, exactly what you want to see (Middle line)

I know some of the headlines are frightening and the market movements are fast today triggered by some big Ego’s…go figure!

Hopefully this clarity will help you, should you run into something that may lead you down a different path!

Unknowns eventually become knows, and clarity is found!

Have a Great “Now You Know” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents