Category Archives: Market Comments

All About the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) The Dangers (Part 3)

Earlier here in the first part of our ETF Post from our coming Q2 Newsletter, we spoke of the creation and massive growth.

In the Second Part here of our ETF Post we showed the large number of different asset classes the ETF’s are now available …. and growing fast….

Here is a reminder, of just how many Assets ETF’s now encompass..

etf-universe-aum-large

The NAV or Net Asset Value – Discount, Premium and Mismatch

NAV Or Net Asset Value is the true value of the underlying assets… recall the ETF is a basket of assets, originally the first, SPY or “Spider” the S and P 500 Stocks (US large company stocks)….

The SPY is easily tracked, rarely deviates from the underlying value (NAV) and trades very liquid (constantly).

Far away from core indexes, there are now ETF’s that currently trade instantly but have holdings that in some cases may take days, weeks, or even months to liquidate the underlying asset.

Logically… A mismatch of this magnitude can lead to a miss pricing of the asset, especially during stress.

Examples include, floating rate funds, high yielding (low quality) or synthetic types of ETF’s.

As a best practice, staying away from unique and small ETF’s is a good idea.

Have a Great “Which ETF’s to Avoid” Day!

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

All About the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) The Proliferation (Part 2)

Earlier here in the first part of our ETF Post from our coming Q2 Newsletter, we spoke of the creation and massive growth.

The original Index ETF, was called by its ticker, SPY AKA Spider!

If They Buy, Wall Street Will Build – Beginnings of a Problem

Wall Street is just like many other businesses, in that if someone will buy it, they will build it. Recall the rush to bring “.com” companies public in the late 90’s, due to the insatiable appetite by investors, who were also experiencing the newly minted power of the internet itsself.

The following, again from IShares and Visual Capitalist shows the proliferation of various types of ETF’s.

etf-universe-aum-large

Dangers in the Making

Once a single Index ETF, now a plethora of over 6000 and counting different ETF assets.  Given the fact that investors do not need duplicate index ETF’s, many new ETF’s do not track anything, and can even get into the woods in uncharted, unique and illiquid types of assets.

US Exchanges are currently logging a shrinking number of public companies due to cost, liability, red tape, and mega mergers.

There are only about 5000 US Traded companies on the exchanges, with a much larger, but very small capitalization of international companies. With this in mind, there must be tons of overlapping ETF holdings.

There are also fledgling ETF’s that will likely never gain traction.

Next Up, The Dangers and What To Avoid…

Have a Great “Proliferation of ETF’s” Day!

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

All About the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund), The Creation and Growth (Part 1)

(Those on the edge of your seats… this post accidentally set for 10:30 PM… such the delayed email today… carry on)

Working on the Q2 Newsletter and with a fabulous article about ETF’s (Exchange Traded Fund) in the making, as promised from last week, wanted to share in short version, here in this format, in advance….

ETF Index SPY is Born

This first Index ETF, traded (s) on the exchanges as SPY can be purchased just like a stock, during market hours and even after market hours in the much less stable and liquid extended market hours. Today just like when it was established, trades at 1/100 of the actual index value.  I.e. Index 3300, SPY 330.

This Index ETF allowed investors the ability to purchase one asset, under the ticker SPY, just like an individual stock, but hold 500 stocks, in this case the Standard and Poor’s 500, generally known as the largest US public companies in the world all at once and have throughout the day ability to buy or sell.

Prior to the SPY, there were certainly Mutual Funds (and still are today) that represent the same index, but were only tradable at the end of each day, also called end of day settlement.

In an ever faster moving world, the ETF has gaining appeal and continued money flows through low cost purchase.

Time Flies When We Are Having Fun – National Quote 1.5 Decade Ago Still Pertinent

Oddly, the following quote in 2006, actually still hits to the heart of an important topic of this article today…

Managers Look Ahead To Era Of Rate Declines

BY MURRAY COLEMAN

INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY

Posted 10/6/2006

“The interim period while we’re not raising or lowering rates is a time to build ETF watch lists,” said John Kvale, a Dallas- based adviser. “If it’s a soft landing for the economy, then our belief is that we’ll gravitate much more toward higher-quality stock funds.” He’s moving clients away from small-cap ETFs. The funds he favors now include S&P 500 tracker SPDRs. (SPY) “We’re holding off right now on investing in more sector-specific ETFs,” Kvale said.

Fast Forward to the Growth of ETF’s

From Ishares/Black Rock and Visual Capitalist

HIstory of ETF

As long as there is demand, Wall Street will Build!

Next up, beginnings of Danger!

Have a Great “ETF Creation” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Did Elon Musk, Founder of Tesla, Get the Last Laugh? Maybe! The Short Squeeze

Elon Musk, Tesla founder and SpaceX Explorer garnered our attention with several interesting charts which we highlighted here and here on how he brought the electric car to fruition.

Musk, so controversial, not only in his endeavors, but in his life, went against the grain with his Tesla Automotive, giving rise to the first all electric vehicle (also in very lofty production goals, which were at first not met) and a unique against the grain sale system that bypassed much of the standard mandatory current automobile industry taxes tariffs and payments.

Musk, during a Twitter barrage about a year ago, got himself into trouble resulting in his removal from several important roles at his firm Tesla.

Much of the Twitter trouble came from an attempt to chase short sellers – those investors that actually sell your company stock short (in advance) with the expectation that it will go down there by purchasing it back at a profit. Musk taking issue with the vast community of shorts in a Twitter storm created interest from the regulators.

Five Years of Short Interest

Fast forward to just last week,  neat chart from our new test service, shows exactly what happens when too many people get on one side of the trade and what it can do to the stock.

As, the graph rises, more shorts are piling on … but what happens if they all need to hit the exits at the same time?

2-7-20 Tesla Short Interest

This is What happens, AKA Short Squeeze

While the stock has come back down to earth a bit at the end of last week, there were certainly many investment bodies left behind on the short squeeze roller!

2-7-20 Tesla Graph

We are not recommending Tesla as an investment, or as a purchase for your next car, only somewhat humored by the Lemming like pilings on and off, and what it has ultimately done to Tesla stock.

Did Elon Musk Win? Time will tell!

Have a Happy “No Lemming” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

January 2020 Podcast Video (Dogs Blooper at 2:55), Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our January 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Break In: Dog Blooper at 2:55 for those wanting a chuckle!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

January – 2020 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Handy New Tax Rates and Table

Early in the month, here in this post, we review the new contribution levels, rates and maximums.

As suspected, we have reviewed this ourselves a ton of times already as 2019 and 2020 levels blur during conversations…

2020 Comp and Retirement Contribution Limits

Homesteading Reminder

In our article here, we remind all of those who may have changed primary residence last year to check their homesteading provisions as this can be a significant saving, depending on your situation.

Examples

  • California exempts the first $7,000 of residential homestead from property taxes.
  • Colorado allows a 50% deduction for up to the first $200,000 (equivalent to a $100,000 exemption if the property is valued at $200,000 or above) for seniors (over age 65) who have lived in their property for ten consecutive years.
  • Georgia allows a 1% HEST only in a few counties.
  • Florida‘s homestead exemption allows an exemption of 160 acres outside of a municipality and one-half an acre inside a municipality.[5]
  • Kentucky, for 2013 and 2014, the exemption has been set at $36,000. Once it is approved, homeowners who are 65 or older do not need to reapply for the homestead exemption each year.[6]
  • Louisiana exempts the first $75,000 of residential homestead from local property taxes.[7]
  • Michigan exempts the homeowner from paying the operating millage of local school districts.
  • Mississippi exemption from all ad valorem taxes assessed to property; this is limited to the first $7,500 of the assessed value or $300 of the actual exempted tax dollars.[8]
  • New York‘s School Tax Relief (STAR) program exempts the first $30,000 of a primary home’s assessed value from school district taxes; the exemption is limited to owners with incomes under $500,000. Additional exemptions are available for people over 65 with a limited income. The STAR program applies only to school taxes; no homestead exemption exists for taxes levied by other municipal entities. New York prevents a New York resident claiming this exemption if the New York resident owns property in another state and claims a similar exemption in that other state.
  • Oklahoma allows a $1000 deduction of the assessed valuation, about $75 to $125 of savings per year, if owners file for homestead exemption with the local county clerk.
  • Rhode Island exempts the first 20% of the home value from property taxes.
  • Texas allows a deduction, with additional exemptions available for county taxes, people over 65 and people who are disabled. It also requires school districts to offer a $25,000 exemption (but not other taxing districts, such as cities and counties).[9] Texas further limits the assessment increase on a homestead to 10% of the prior year’s value.

Helping Close Relatives or Others

During the month, we had multiple Financial Planning questions for close relatives and friends, which were asked, but some what hesitantly…

Wanting to reinforce the fact that we are glad to help, in this article we remind everyone we are not only flattered by the question, but VERY happy to help!

Helping hand adventure-1807524__480.

Tax Forms and Information Reminders

In another handy reference post, here, we discuss the tax form alphabet and more importantly, note the due dates and expected delivery times of the most common tax forms….

1099- R and 1099 Miscellaneous cover 95% of most folks reporting!

We know, it’s tax season again…not everyone’s fav…but we are trying to help make it easier.

Capital Market Comments

The markets finally took notice of the CoronaVirus. As scary as the virus is, modern day medicine and the actual fast spreading of the event and comprehension, unlike SARS which we remember well will likely help stem the fears and spread of the virus.

koyfin_20200201_090411940

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of February!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Top Countries By Electrical Power Consumption (Per Capita) – You Will be Surprised – Animated Chart

In order for this Animation to make sense, remember this is Per Capita…

The results will still, most likely surprise you!

From our Friends at Animated Stats:

Have a Great “Electrical Consumption Informed” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee onl
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

Q 4 Quarterly Review Cover Letter – Private Policy

There is a very old, well known, Wall Street saying that goes something like this.

“The stock market will always climb a Wall of Worry!”

Oddly there are two themes that are conveyed in this saying.

  1. The obvious, a wall of worry creates enough doubt for capital markets to operate efficiently and rise
  2. The less obvious, when everything is clear and the sun is shining, sometimes it’s near the end of the expansionary times and happy capital markets.

As fast as this year went, our memories are still very clear on what capital markets look like just twelve months ago.

In chicken little like fashion the sky was falling, Capital Markets, and participants were throwing a giant hissy fit, and the federal reserve was cranking up interest rates to participants dismay.

With 2020 hindsight, a nice wall of worry was created.

With earnings being the ultimate driver of capital markets, a drop in earnings, a recession, or global slow down, would lead to the decline in capital markets but for now we certainly don’t have to worry about item two above in that old wall street saying.

Speaking of recessions, be sure to review the capital market article in our Q1 2020 Newsletter, concerning the lowering of rates while the inverted yield curve – a much talked about by us event, and somewhat disdained. As mentioned in the newsletter we ran across this information mid quarter, and certainly must acknowledge the history brought up by the speaker and his chart, which may avert a recession, at least for now

Also in the newsletter two, two -part personal financial planning articles, one dealing with inheritance and another dealing with automobiles that you may find interesting as these topics were repeated in our office throughout the final quarter of the year and made for a great subject.

Thank you for your time, thanks for reading our blog posts, newsletter and YouTube videos, we enjoyed bringing you all original, somewhat rough at times information as we see it through our eyes!

In Closing

Your Fourth Quarter summary is enclosed on the front page of this report we have included our most recent investment allocation from your Investment Policy Statement. This is also the time we attach our Private Policy Statement for the year along with our opportunity to offer our latest ADV filings; Requests for review will be accepted via phone, mail or email, and mailed immediately upon request.

Sincerely,

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Enclosure (2019 Report, Private Policy)

 

J.K. Financial, Inc.

PRIVACY POLICY NOTICE

Our Promise to You

As a client of J.K. Financial, Inc., you share both personal and financial information with us.  Your privacy is important to us, and we are dedicated to safeguarding your personal and financial information.

Information Provided by Clients 

In the normal course of doing business, we typically obtain the following non-public personal information about our clients:

  • Personal information regarding our clients’ identity such as name, address and social security number;
  • Information regarding securities transactions effected by us; and
  • Client financial information such as net-worth, assets, income, bank account information and account balances.

How We Manage and Protect Your Personal Information

We do not sell information about current or former clients to third parties, nor is it our practice to disclose such information to third parties unless requested to do so by a client or client representative or, if necessary, in order to process a transaction, service an account or as permitted by law

In order to protect your personal information, we maintain physical, electronic and procedural safeguards to protect your personal information.  Our Privacy Policy restricts the use of client information and requires that it be held in strict confidence.

Client Notifications

We are required by law to annually provide a notice describing our privacy policy.  In addition, we will inform you promptly if there are changes to our policy.

Please do not hesitate to contact us with questions about this notice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

A True Yogi Berra saying may be fitting now – It’s like déjà vu all over again!”

Tariffs and Trade War Talks Continue

While the tariff banter seems relentless and every day changing, leading to Capital Market bipolar movements, one day irrational exuberance, and the next day irrationally depressed, as mentioned in our Q4 Newsletter, tariff talk has been going on for decades. With today’s constant bombardment of immediate news stories and short clips it seems, present party included, to be constant and all encompassing. The reality is this likely will work itself out, just as seen in the graph in the newsletter. Our bet is once the tariff talk turns into tariff agreements, we will see market relief and higher overall interest rates. For now, there’s no doubt that the tariff talk is slowing the global economy and there is no envy for public company managers trying to navigate the possible changes that occur on a day by day basis, making it very tough to stock inventory and make purchases.

Treasury Rates- Interest rate cycle

Given the afore mentioned Tariff Talk, FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by chief Jerome Powell and a company have embarked on a lowering of rates, twice to be exact, but only two .25 basis points each, in an attempt to help ease interest rate burdens and spur the economy. While not huge fans of the lowering of rates at this time due to gun powder needs at a future, when the inevitable recession occurs, at this time it appears we are on an interest rate decrease path, a complete 180° turn from just one year ago, when reserve officials were raising. If there is an agreement in Tariff talk, lowering of rates would likely stop, and we might even hear talks of raising, making for an interesting rate cycle. Time will tell.

Taxes or the savings of taxes paid

As we head into the final quarter of the year it’s time to make sure we’ve done all we can do for this years’ , especially items that have no look back features. As also mentioned in our Q4 newsletter, be sure to max those 401(k)s, contribute or distribute from 529‘s, complete Required Minimum Distributions (RMD’s) and make sure those charitable giving are complete this year, as all of these items have a hard stop year-end deadline.

Have a great day and start to fall!

Sincerely,

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Enclosure 2019 Report