Category Archives: Market Comments

Capital Market Thoughts … Reminder from Lead Newsletter Article of Q1 2022 … “Anatomy of a Slowdown”

With the gyrations of the Capital Markets as of late making headlines, we wanted to re-review our review (purposely a lot of reviewing…haha… ok digressing) of our lead article in our most recent Newsletter (Q1 2022) The Anatomy of a slowdown!

Here is a link to the Newsletter and my video explaining the lead article at the very beginning of the Video!

Anatomy of a Slowdown – Re Review

After large infusions of stimulus during the virus and associated lock downs, it should not come as a surprise that there would be a slowdown both economically and on an individual spending level as the stimulus subsided….

Capital Markets have sniffed this out and are trying to figure out the next speed of economic growth…

While Capital Markets and participants do their thing …. we wanted to remind ourselves and readers of a few facts from the Newsletter:

Those 10 years or more from retirement, should embrace the eventual slowdown and market reactions. This is the time you really get to make great purchases and shine in the future, but it may not feel like it at the time, Enjoy and Embrace! 

Those in the 10-5 year range from retirement, recall we adjust our risk level down as we get closer to retirement. Yes, that means taxes and a slower ride, but a lot less bumpy and less stress. 

Those 5 years out or already retired, as a slowdown occurs, and values drop, our most important item is to rebalance from the safe things that have held up in value, to the more risky items that have dropped in value (agnostic sell high and buy low), and of course remind ourselves we came into this with a good allocation for each and every one of us and can easily navigate this. 

The most important items we want to convey are that near the very end of a recession/slowdown, the headlines are the worst, but the rewards are the greatest. 

The average length of a recession is about 9-12 months, much longer than the most recent 2020 recession (-36%), and the Interest Rate Temper Tantrum slowdown of late 2018 (-19.9%) or the low Volatility (VIX) shake out of early 2018 (-12%) all shown here in the chart below! 

Final Thoughts to Remember:

  1. Investing is risky, and one will almost certainly have a drop in value during a slowdown/recession  
  1. Invest rationally when the sun is shining AKA Don’t get over your ski’s by keeping your allocations (safe/risky, Fixed income/Equity) correct during good times, thereby making it through the inevitable bad times  
  1. Reallocation from winning to losing areas is the most important item to capture the best part of a slowdown/recession, the eventual recovery 
  1. Ignore the headlines and remember they will likely be the worst near the end *Purposely Bolded for extra reminder! 
  1. Avoid false prophets, there will always be someone who has made a negative correct call, but most of the time that is not that someone’s first call, and they likely will overstay their welcome, once again missing the best part of the slowdown/recession, the recovery 
  1. Stay positive, and know our job is to help talk and guide you through these situations, just like we are now, by reminding and reviewing during sun shining times 

Have a Great “Re-review of Anatomy of a Recession” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Fourth Quarter 2021 Review, Looking Ahead, Private Policy

As the year ended, we cannot help but look back, especially over the last two years, and maybe even farther, to the ups and downs that have occurred, and we are delighted to be on this journey with you!

Thank you for the Collaborative Journey; but “What Have We Done Lately?”

In true “What have we done lately!” form, as we look forward to 2022 and are always very careful to stray from a definitely forecast (burns from prior years attempts) we want to call your attention to the main article in our Newsletter called “The Anatomy of a Slowdown/Recession”.

We are not predicting a slowdown, nor do we want one, but we also know they do come, eventually!

The last decade has given us unique experiences that are somewhat muted from the normal slowdowns. A dramatic drop in 2020, followed by a dramatic and extremely fast recovery.  In similar fashion, two drops in 2018, one early in the year and one late. Collectively, all very short in time!

If we really show our age (mostly present party speaking here) and look back to 2007-2009, that experience was the opposite of a normal slowdown and the absolute antithesis of the prior mentioned slowdowns, long deep and very frightening. Only to follow a 1999 to 2002 similar dramatic slowdown (really showing our age now, but we were there!)

So back to What Have We Done Lately, as we turn the page on the new year many of our allocations may need to be trimmed back “lower our risk“ and this may cause us to incur taxes depending on the situation.

We are always cognizant of taxes, heck we hate taxes and try to minimize them at all cost,  but we don’t want the tax tail wagging the investment risk dog, and as such allocations and reallocations causing taxes but for the benefit of the portfolio safety may occur early this year.

Thanks again for enjoying the journey together, please make sure you are receiving automatic emails from our blog at www.street-cents.com as we post every MWF at 10:30 am CDT

Your Fourth Quarter summary is enclosed on the front page of this report we have included our most recent investment allocation from your Investment Policy Statement. This is also the time we attach our Private Policy Statement for the year, along with our opportunity to offer our latest ADV filings and Client Relationship Summary (Form CRS); Requests for review will be accepted via phone, mail or email, and mailed immediately upon request.

Sincerely,

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Enclosure (2021Report, Private Policy)

J.K. Financial, Inc.

PRIVACY POLICY NOTICE

Our Promise to You

As a client of J.K. Financial, Inc., you share both personal and financial information with us.  Your privacy is important to us, and we are dedicated to safeguarding your personal and financial information.

Information Provided by Clients 

In the normal course of doing business, we typically obtain the following non-public personal information about our clients:

  • Personal information regarding our clients’ identity such as name, address and social security number;
  • Information regarding securities transactions effected by us; and
  • Client financial information such as net-worth, assets, income, bank account information and account balances.

How We Manage and Protect Your Personal Information

We do not sell information about current or former clients to third parties, nor is it our practice to disclose such information to third parties unless requested to do so by a client or client representative or, if necessary, in order to process a transaction, service an account or as permitted by law

In order to protect your personal information, we maintain physical, electronic and procedural safeguards to protect your personal information.  Our Privacy Policy restricts the use of client information and requires that it be held in strict confidence.

Client Notifications

We are required by law to annually provide a notice describing our privacy policy.  In addition, we will inform you promptly if there are changes to our policy.

Please do not hesitate to contact us with questions about this notice.

.

Kastle Office Work Index Shows New Normal … Pivot Without the Blink of an Eye …

Had a much heavier post for today, but this hit the inbox early on in the week and my jaw dropped, so thought it worth sharing…

Kastle Back To Work Index – Fast Pivot

The Kastle Back To Work Index has been one of our favorite early finds, and is a fantastic idea of a mostly Security Monitoring service company using their resources for fantastic reporting…

So, looking back at last December (2020) there was a natural Holiday gravitation away from the office (Hat tip JH) …. but nothing like the fast pivot occurring most recently….

A smooth pivot to work from home and a slice down to half in two weeks…. amazing….

Kastle Barometer

Likely the world we live in from now on…. more of a mandatory progress…. but very interesting how fast society adapts….

Have a Great “Easy Pivoting” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

December 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our December 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

December 2021 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

First In Back to Basics Series – “The Emergency Fund”

In the inaugural post of a neat (well we think so) new idea, here in our Back to Basics series we discuss the all important Emergency fund.

This series is a review of the basics, and will serve as somewhat of a semester study of the Financial Planning foundations all the way to more advanced topics later in the series…. We plan on a mid month release of each part and somewhere south of double digit parts…. possibly with a video added to each for additional insights…. thanks in advance for sharing with those who may find this series helpful….

With the FOMC holding rates low currently, we remind that the Emergency fund is NOT investment funds, and as such may earn little if any interest in the current environment…. but that is ok, it needs to be safe, safe safe and very liquid!

We also discuss the size of the Emergency fund, depending on your situation!

FHFA Raises Conforming Mortgage Loan Amount

This post came to us due to the much larger than normal increase in the confirming (non-jumbo) loan increase amount. We have spoken at length on inflationary increases in a variety of assets, this includes homes and this much larger than normal increase in the non-jumbo Mortgage amount to $647,200 will be helpful in allowing more entry to many into the Residential Housing market, here is the actual article. and here is the link to the FHFA announcement…..

Capital Market Comments

Interest Rates and the FOMC – On Two Different Pages at Time of Post

With such importance on interest rates, the possible raising of the rates and the FOMC’s (Federal Open Market Committee) adjustment of rates…..

This post on FOMC’s rate increases, versus what the Markets are pricing in, was at the time very different. With Markets pricing in an increase in mid year of about 20% and AT THE TIME FOMC members saying a late 2022 if at all increase.

Fast forward to today and both the markets and the FOMC are saying a 60% increases in the Fed funds rate around March may be in the cards…. hmmmm

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of January!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Q1 2022 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Video Audio Podcast Review ! By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q1 2022 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

Q 1 2022 Newsletter

(YouTube)

Anatomy of a Slowdown/Recession

In our main article, we review the last three drawdowns/slowdowns/recession for examples of how fast they occurred and the extremely fast recovery as can be seen by the main graph below.

We are not calling for a major slowdown/recession or the like, but we wanted to remind ourselves as well as everyone else, the last three drawdowns were not normal.

Longer drawdowns are the norm, and in the Newsletter Article we also go deeper into the Great Financial Crisis of 07-09, which was also not normal… it was much larger and much longer than the normal.

The past decade and a half have had it’s scary moments, but they did not last very long and were quickly attacked by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to give support in the system, fortunately very successfully. This may not always be the case, hence a reminder of the Umbrella use during sun shining times!

New Retirement Contribution Maximums, Best Practice, Tips and Tricks

The new retirement maximums are out at the IRS Website .

Again in our Newsletter article we remind those of smooth contributions throughout the year, UNLESS you have knowledge that may have you severed from your 401k some time during the year, in which a neat trick is to accelerate you contribution level in order to max that 401k out before you leave!

IRAs2022202120202019
401(k), 403(b), Profit-Sharing Plans, etc.2022202120202019
Annual Compensation305,000290,000285,000280,000
Elective Deferrals20,50019,50019,50019,000
Catch-up Contributions6,5006,5006,5006,000
Defined Contribution Limits61,00058,00057,00056,000
IRA Contribution Limit$6,000$6,000$6,000$6,000
IRA Catch-Up Contributions1,0001,0001,0001,000
Traditional IRA AGI Deduction Phase-out Starting at2022202120202019
Joint Return109,000105,000104,000103,000
Single or Head of Household68,00066,00065,00064,000
SEP2022202120202019
SEP Minimum Compensation650650600600
SEP Maximum Contribution61,00058,00057,00056,000
SEP Maximum Compensation305,000290,000285,000280,00

We hope you enjoy … talk to you in 2022!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Department of Transportation (DOT) Travel Volume Updates … Urban still Lag … Rural Rocking and Rolling

Over the weekend, the latest Department of Transportation (DOT) road travel update hit the in-box….ya ya, a bit nerd like to look forward to an update from the DOT, digressing…

While we have analyzed this before, here back in May of this year and we really like the fact that the graphs are the exact same but just updated, so it is an easy comparison…..

A new observation – Look at the graph just after the Great Financial Crisis of 07-09 – Peaking in 2009 and taking 5, yep Five full years before regaining a new high… WOW!

This speaks to the brevity of this most recent recession…. Coming up shortly a review of the Q1 2022 Newsletter will speak directly to the more normal lengths of slowdowns…. i.e. 2020 was a real short one, and 07-09 was a longer, bigger one!

DOT Total All Roads

Urban (City) Highways

The lack of recapture is completely due to Urban highway traffic (A few times lately in my personal city driving, find this hard to believe, but small sample size).

Continued work from home/remote, speaks to this shortfall!

Rural Highway

Notice the fall was shorter, recoup much faster and currently as of this year, a complete recovery….

This makes sense as rural transportation is extremely important, and as such, much less discretionary!

Have a Great “DOT Transportation Update” Day!

John A. Kvale, CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

National Apartment Rent Cost Increase 2017 to Present from Apartmentlist.com … A 30% Increase YTD – Wow!

We had been very excited to show you this, but needed Copyright approval first.

A very timely update to our end of the week CPI analysis.

Last week we finally got Copyright approval….

So here we go!

National Rental Costs from Apartmentlist.com

We have been hearing of rent increases, but did not have a great way to track it. After running across the fantastic Apartment site at www.apartmentlist.com, which has over 5 million apartments and counting for rent, and they are collecting data.

The following is the National Average from 2017 to present. More specific geographic areas are available, but we wanted to use the broadest measure.

Rising rent costs are an understatement, the move from the beginning of the year is approaching 30%…. yep a 30% increase in rent, NATIONWIDE

With Shelter being such a large portion of not only the CPI, but many families expenses, this is worth watching closely!

Have a Great “Rent Increases Analysis” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

CPI (Consumer Price Index) Prints 6.8% Year over Year Increase, Quick Analysis on Likely Peak … Friday

About three hours ago, the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released their November 2021 report on CPI (Consumer Price Index) one of the broadest measures of Inflation…

If you have noticed your grocery basket smaller and more expensive, this is why….

This report has a ton of factors in it, as can be seen at the top of the chart from the BLS report, below….

The year over year print was 6.8% increase!

A very large portion of the CPI is Energy…

Have you noticed a LOWER bill to fill your tank lately?

The BLS report is lagging, below is a current Oil price, which is over 10% LOWER currently… hence the cheaper refills…

Very likely peak in CPI as measured by the BLS, next month which will be released in early January, we will take a peak and keep you updated…

Ok, another slightly heavy Friday, BUT the FOMC is watching this very closely and making decisions based on this increase, which may be peaking/lagging already…. Let’s stay tuned!

Have a Great “Friday CPI Analysis” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Bond Markets and Participants Say Raise Rates Mid 2022, FOMC Says WAY later (EOY 2022), Who is Correct?

Why this is important? Bond Markets are signaling a much faster interest rate increase(s) than Fed Speak… Someone is going to lose this game of chicken… Only time will tell us who?

Frequently, Wall Streeters (my nick name) are quoted as saying the smartest guys in the room are the Bond Markets/Participants.

Some of this rhetoric comes from the simplicity of a bond. Basically you have a time to payback (term) and risk of the asset (Quality i.e. Aa to junk).

With less to focus on, bonds and their players/participants are thought to have greater clarity…. However, in recent years (working on a decade now) the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell currently, have been making direct purchases of bonds, causing possible distortions and lack of true free market discovery….

Well Maybe!

Recent Two Year Treasury Yields Rise Dramatically

Throwing water on the theme that the FOMC has taken TOTAL control of the bond market, this recent move in the 2 year treasury is signally to the FOMC by bond folks, they expect (and want) rate hikes sooner rather than later….. Hmmmmm

CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) FOMC Watch Tool

This neat CME Fed Watch Tool … overlays the current interest rates with a graph to show an expected increase time probability…

The way to read this chart is the orange represents the chance of a FOMC rate increase… March of 22 showing about a 20% chance of a FOMC rate increase….

Push forward to June 22, just two months later, and the probability of at least a .25% increase moves to about 80%!

The thing is, the FOMC is saying maybe one increase very late next year (2022), but certainly not the bond market/participants.

Wait too long and the FOMC may miss their chance to raise … raise too early (not likely at this time) and it could cause an unexpected headwind for the economy.

Let’s grab some popcorn and see who wins this tug of war!

Have a Great “Fed versus Bond Market” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

November 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our November 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

Break In: The Brain is at it again….

Some very nice publicity for Donald, aka “The Brain” here in this post along with a neat link to the industry article.

November 2021 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

New Retirement Limits

In this post titled “401k Plans Year 2022 Limits ($20,500 + $6,500 Catch Up), IRA Stay Same ($6,000 + $1,000 Catch Up) … Hmmm?” We go over the new limits and discuss why the catch up provisions are staying the same… the Hmmm part!

We go over not only the 401k and similar limits, but also the IRA and Roth limits and catch up provisions as well.

All of this from a handy IRS announcement found here at this link.

Capital Market Comments

TSA Throughput Update

One of our favorite monitoring of information is the individual TSA numbers that check passengers at the point of entrance.


Here in this post we discuss the latest updates and take note of the TSA’s new easier to graph for us, formatting… NICE!

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of December!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents