Category Archives: Market Comments

Q4 2022 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Slowdown Time to Clear, Ben Hunt Narratives, Peter Zeihan Global thoughts … Video Audio Podcast Review ! By John Kvale CFA, CFP …

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q4 2022 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

Q 4 2022 Newsletter

(YouTube)

Patience – Real Slowdowns take a while to clear

Bear Markets about 20 months

Slowdowns average about 14 months

Narratives by Ben Hunt

With the news being the worst near the tail end of a slowdown, after crossing paths with Ben over five times, we thought it a great time to review some of his thoughts and research…

The Missionary Statement or Strong Direct Narrative

Ben and his partner theorized that Missionary statements once saved for Oval Office wartime speeches or the like are now used in part due to the way we consume our information by almost everyone, leading to an overload possibly of missionary or breaking news like headlines and narratives.

The possible effect of strong missionary statements or narratives, again Ben theorizes is that when there is the need for a very strong subject matter or narrative, if we are not careful we have become desensitized to things because of the possible dramatization of other headlines and narratives that it’s not taken serious. Said simply, the boy who cried wolf

“Why am I reading this, and why am I reading it now?”

Dr. Hunt mentions that they have actually had a number of news organizations and authors directly communicate with he and his partner in order to make sure or check that they are not accidentally using a narrative, which is a fantastic possible change moving forward

Peter Zeihan – Russian Ukraine Thoughts – Demographics made It Now or Never

With regards to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Peter theorizes that this is a recapture of multiple ports of invasion that Russia has given up over the past many decades. He also mentions that because of poor demographics the Russian invasion was an absolute necessity sooner rather than later due too an aging population

Interest Rate Thoughts

“The Federal Reserve led by Jerome Powell, has long wanted to get rates up to a more normalized level”   For the record this has been a known goal in the halls of Wall Street and the Federal Reserve for that matter.

Peter goes on, “Seems to be a feeling from the Fed Officials, that if a recession is going to happen anyway, let’s get our toolkit back of a higher interest rates!”

Talk to you after the turn of the calendar !l!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Reviewing a Sept 23, 2020 Prior Post and FOMC Statement – “Inflation is the Enemy!”

Over the weekend (no jog as an early Saturday walk with dog through the local college campus garnered a huge stubbed toe from a protruding curb….cannot make this up … digressing) a long ago post about the FOMC and their main enemy entered the frontal lobe…

Our September 23, 2020 Post – Federal Reserve Enemy – Inflation

“The Fed, Economics, Interest Rates and Interest Rates Review Part 2 What would force the FEDs hand?

Posted on September 23, 2020 by John Kvale CFA, CFP | Leave a comment | Edit

Well covered in Part 1, here, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and Capital Markets also believe currently that interest rates will stay low for longer …. maybe we are hopeful they are both wrong (No maybe, we are!) but there is one word that we know the FOMC cannot allow to get out of control …

Inflation !

With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. From FOMC statement September 16, 2020″

The original post goes on the talk about the expansion of the balance sheet and the lack of inflation at the current time.

Fast forwarding to today, the balance sheet is unwinding and there certainly are higher inflation numbers…

If the Fed sticks to it’s word, their fears may justify continued pressure to slow an already slowing economy!

Hang tight, we have your back, but bumps may be on the horizon!

Have a Great “Federal Reserve Replay” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Ben Hunt and Narratives … Shortened Article from just completed Newsletter

This is the time of the calendar that makes for A LOT of content in writing form…. thank goodness no writers block (For the record it has occurred)

The complete article is on the way to the printer, but came out so good … thought we would preview it here in shortened form!

Ben Hunt on Narratives

Ben theorizes that words are used to shape our behavior and as such he and Rusty, his business partner have a goal to identify when such events are occurring.

This is NOT a Fact Check, and not meaning that you as the reader will disagree or agree with them, only alerting to the fact that there may be some persuasion occurring in the narrative

The Missionary Statement or Strong Direct Narrative

Ben and his partner theorized that Missionary statements once saved for Oval Office wartime speeches or the like are now used in part due to the way we consume our information by almost everyone, leading to an overload possibly of missionary or breaking news like headlines and narratives.

The possible effect of strong missionary statements or narratives, again Ben theorizes is that when there is the need for a very strong subject matter or narrative, if we are not careful we have become desensitized to things because of the possible dramatization of other headlines and narratives that it’s not taken serious.

Comments from the Grant Williams Podcast

In the Podcast Grant mentions something Ben brought to his attention that he uses to decipher his in take of information. 

“Why am I reading this, and why am I reading it now?”

The gist of this is to be curious, or maybe slightly skeptical, but not pessimistic or negative, just having front of consciousness thought that maybe there is a slant or a narrative here that’s trying to persuade.

With Headlines being dramatic and very Negative during slowdowns, most notably very near the end of the slowdown…. a timely review!

Have a Great “Watch the Narrative Headlines” Day! Watch for the Newsletter Video for an Audio/Video/Podcast review of the article if you find it interesting!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Who Drinks the Most Beer? …. Visual Capitalist …

Almost hit you with …

“A hotter than expected CPI (Consumer Price Index) led market participant selling yesterday!”

Heck that is old news and news we expected and items we have been talking about a lot AND will talk about in our coming Newsletter….. We are prepared….

How about some fun?

Who Drinks the Most Beer?

From our favorite friends at Visual Capitalist

How about Per Capita

Go Czech republic go Wow! 28th Consecutive Winning Year…. Wow Wow!

Have a Great “Beer Consumption Informed” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Analyzing the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet … Interesting Analysis of MBS … Big Purchases … Big Sales

As mentioned Friday, there were a lot of words dictated, typed and researched over the weekend in preparation for the Q 4 Newsletter.

During some of the research, a stumble on to the follow chart occurred. Being totally unrelated to our Newsletter information, but very eye catching and interesting, a share was in order!

From our Friends at JPMorgan and their Market Insights Slide deck:

What is most striking to the eye, or at least our eyes, is the disproportionate amount of MBS (Mortgage Back Securities – think packs of Mortgages) the Federal Reserve purchased during this latest round of asset purchases.

This month the Federal Reserve has stated they are now pushing 97 Billion dollars of these assets back into the market, up from a prior mentioned 40 Billion monthly sale.

This may be a reason that Current Mortgage Rates are by almost any measure WAY to high, compared to their historical normal spreads between other similar assets.

Bottom line, the Federal Reserve likely over pushed rates low and they may be doing just the opposite now.

Just as eventually the sugar wears out, so will the salt of higher rates!

Have a Great “Had to Share a Neat Fed Chart” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

August 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – YAY …. Holiday Party Location Revealed – 401k Run Rate – Wall Street Mistake to Our Advantage, Bloated Inventory – Slowdown Contra Bounces and Pivot Narrative Reminder – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our August 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Break In: Holiday Venue Announced –

Thanks for the tease jabs last week… deserved…haha

Dallas Museum of Art

Details to Come – Saturday Afternoon November 19th before Thanksgiving Weekend

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

August 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Check that 401k Run Rate – Are we hitting our contribution goals?

Here in this post we remind everyone now is a good time to check the run rate for your 401k contributions….

The reason now is a good time is we have time to make up any shortcomings, should they be discovered…

Bloated Inventories – Wall Street Woes = Main Street Savings

With large public companies fessing up that they have accidentally over inventoried and will be slashing prices to move said bloats….

Now may be a good time for a MANDATORY purchase….

As we mentioned in our post here, we have done some spiffing up of the office in conjunction with our new lease signing… Maybe too many people took our post to heart…. options are greatly reduced on some of our updates…yikes

Capital Market Comments

Hill Street Blues Reminder – Let’s be Careful Out there

In our post here, we highlight as a reminder that slowing/recession markets can have interesting contra bounces… but as our Hill Street Blue’s Chief always stated….

Let’s be careful out there…

Jackson Hole – No Pivot

Along with contra bounces comes a narrative that usually gets some traction…

Sure enough, this bouncing narrative was the Jerome Powell was already Pivoting to a slower hand (Economically not important as the cards have been dealt- digressing) …

Jerome Powell announced in his last weekend speech …. not only NO PIVOT but get ready for some Pain….Wow….

Care to guess when the announcement occurred?

Not to worry we are most definitely …… Being Careful Out there!

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of September!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Hill Street Blues Reminder … Let’s be Careful Out there … Slowdown Refresher – Lengthy and Contra Bounces …

As a kid, with a firm 9 PM bedtime, one of the last shows I could grab before hitting the sack each night was a cop show … maybe showing my age, remember was a kid … Hill Street Blues, each show started out with the chief giving a summary of the day and passed events ….. and his words every show as he released his men to the streets were …

 “Let’s be careful out there!”

Reviewing Anatomy of a Slowdown again

Being creatures of habit … recency bias seeps into so much of our thinking … 2020 was just barely a double digit day retreat and Capital Markets of 2018 just barely a double digit month retreat. 

Many may have forgotten what a normal slowdown looks like.

Not trying to beat us over the head or a dead horse, however that goes …. More normal economic slowdown‘s as mentioned here and here just to name a few mentions (ok dead horse again) take somewhere between nine month and eighteen months a.k.a. 2007 – 2009 financial and 2000 dot com bust followed by a slow down, rather than just the most recent quarters we’ve experienced.

Contra Movements

Big bounces are part of a slowdown… much bigger bounces than normal growth appreciations during Growth/Bull times …

Yep… 19.37% and 22.93% bounces….

A slow down, the R word – (Recession), or a growth absence, patience is a virtue …

In true let’s be careful out there fashion, we haven’t forgotten the umbrella and maybe it will not rain, but we definitely have the umbrella just in case….

Bottom line, stay away from extreme headlines of “It’s all clear” and the other “It’s all doom and gloom”, we will get through this, but let’s be careful out there and have our patience hats on too!

Have a Great “Anatomy of a Slowdown Refresher” Day!

Be Careful out there too!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

July 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – Back to Basics Tax Return PLANNING – Legacy Health Coverage – Feds Pickle – Yield Curve Inverts – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our July 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

July 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Back to Basics Series – Income Tax PLANNING

In our final fun “Back to Basics” review we discuss Tax PLANNING….

From the post:

Coincidentally, the most important part of Tax Planning is the second word in the subject, Planning!

As we individual or corporate tax payers traverse the tax year, it’s important to take note of unusual events that may be occurring. We’re certainly not saying you have to worry about this every minute of the day, but should you have an unusual increase in income, or decrease in income, this should be thought about before the end of the year for your tax planning.

Later in the post we discuss the key items in reviewing your return as well….. in step by step format!

Legacy Health Coverages

After running into several situations of legacy health care options for long time former employees… Here in this post we outline the possibilities of bridge Health Coverage from legacy companies and how fantastic of an option this can be…

In almost every situation, the key is these plans are not easily discovered. In order to find out if you have an option, it’s best to dig out contact information from HR of your old employer and reach out to them directly.

This is an expense to your former employer, so it would be expected not to receive multiple information regarding such a plan, but if available it could greatly help in bridging the gap for Medicare should we be in the situation of needing coverage before age 65. 

Capital Market Comments

Bond Market turns Upside Down – The R Word

After the second negative GDP print … see next note of Fed’s Pickle…. the bond market really began to price in the R Word…. Here in this post we discuss the inversion of long bonds to short and their meaning…

The Fed’s Pickle

In this post, BEFORE the actual GDP announcement, we discussed the Fed’s pickle, with a hot economy (CPI inflation holding tight) BUT an economy that is slowing …..even qualifying as the R Word now – Recession!

From the BLS release after our post :

Q2 2022 (Adv)-0.9%
Q1 2022 (3rd)-1.6%

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter. The smaller decrease in the second quarter primarily reflected an upturn in exports and a smaller decrease in federal government spending.

The definition of recession is negative two quarters GDP….

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of August!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Fed Raises Rates and then heads home for some R&R for over two months … Last Friday of July … Going Fast …

As expected, on Wednesday of this week the federal reserve raised rates by 75 basis points (.75%), an early leak to their favorite Wall Street Journal reporter all but absolutely solidified this decision. Note the speed of the move compared to the most recent rate increases…

Now with an open calendar of over two months the federal reserve can head for the hills and get some R&R before having to stew over the next meeting ….. and what will be likely a much more complicated decision! Recall here our note about being in a pickle!

Speaking of R&R this note comes from a cooler higher altitude climate as the family and I recharge the batteries, sharpen the saw or however that goes, and spend time together. A turnaround trip back home is a necessity for the incoming freshmen‘s mandatory sport tryouts with a quick return back to the family …. hopefully!

Today is a Friday, hope you may have some time for some R&R as well!

Talk next week…

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Why the Fed may be in a Pickle! CPI Inflation Hot … But Economy Slowing … According to Feds Own Research

Imaging you are walking an economic tight rope (We are calling it a pickle) and had no easy way out….

FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell may be in a Pickle.

Too Hot But Also Too Cold

Here at the Cleveland Federal Reserve , the FOMC’s own research from one of their own showed an estimate of CPI for the most recent of 8.59%…. thing is, it came in above 9% ….

Much too hot for the FOMC’s liking!

Then you have this from ANOTHER of the Fed’s own research ….

Atlanta Federal Reserve GDP Now Cast

At the time of this chart their estimate was -2.1% … today it is -1.6% (jumps around as economic reports are released and fed into the beast/model) – predicting the R – Word!

C/O Pierce Kvale

Ok, so CPI/Inflation is too hot …. let’s slow this economy AND INFLATION down….

BUT Wait – the Economy is already slowing per my own members research!

What to do? The Pickle !

Have a Great “Glad not to be in a Pickle” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents