With the gyrations of the Capital Markets as of late making headlines, we wanted to re-review our review (purposely a lot of reviewing…haha… ok digressing) of our lead article in our most recent Newsletter (Q1 2022) The Anatomy of a slowdown!
Here is a link to the Newsletter and my video explaining the lead article at the very beginning of the Video!
Anatomy of a Slowdown – Re Review
After large infusions of stimulus during the virus and associated lock downs, it should not come as a surprise that there would be a slowdown both economically and on an individual spending level as the stimulus subsided….
Capital Markets have sniffed this out and are trying to figure out the next speed of economic growth…
While Capital Markets and participants do their thing …. we wanted to remind ourselves and readers of a few facts from the Newsletter:
Those 10 years or more from retirement, should embrace the eventual slowdown and market reactions. This is the time you really get to make great purchases and shine in the future, but it may not feel like it at the time, Enjoy and Embrace!
Those in the 10-5 year range from retirement, recall we adjust our risk level down as we get closer to retirement. Yes, that means taxes and a slower ride, but a lot less bumpy and less stress.
Those 5 years out or already retired, as a slowdown occurs, and values drop, our most important item is to rebalance from the safe things that have held up in value, to the more risky items that have dropped in value (agnostic sell high and buy low), and of course remind ourselves we came into this with a good allocation for each and every one of us and can easily navigate this.
The most important items we want to convey are that near the very end of a recession/slowdown, the headlines are the worst, but the rewards are the greatest.
The average length of a recession is about 9-12 months, much longer than the most recent 2020 recession (-36%), and the Interest Rate Temper Tantrum slowdown of late 2018 (-19.9%) or the low Volatility (VIX) shake out of early 2018 (-12%) all shown here in the chart below!
Final Thoughts to Remember:
- Investing is risky, and one will almost certainly have a drop in value during a slowdown/recession
- Invest rationally when the sun is shining AKA Don’t get over your ski’s by keeping your allocations (safe/risky, Fixed income/Equity) correct during good times, thereby making it through the inevitable bad times
- Reallocation from winning to losing areas is the most important item to capture the best part of a slowdown/recession, the eventual recovery
- Ignore the headlines and remember they will likely be the worst near the end *Purposely Bolded for extra reminder!
- Avoid false prophets, there will always be someone who has made a negative correct call, but most of the time that is not that someone’s first call, and they likely will overstay their welcome, once again missing the best part of the slowdown/recession, the recovery
- Stay positive, and know our job is to help talk and guide you through these situations, just like we are now, by reminding and reviewing during sun shining times
Have a Great “Re-review of Anatomy of a Recession” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth