Category Archives: Market Comments

January 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our January 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

Newbies – We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

January – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Get and Earlier than normal start on those Taxestaxes control-1027103_1280

Here in this post, we remind everyone that due to the new tax laws, it will be a good idea to get your tax information to your professional as soon as possible.

If your using tax software, be sure to do the recommended updates as we feel certain there will be necessary updates to the tables along the way.

Corrected 1099’s are the usual, with only a few last year, we will give everyone the green light once we get our first round of corrected tax forms – but again go ahead and get started with your taxes!

Stunning Findings about your old employer 401kabonded dawn-3358468__480

We had long suspected as much, but in this post we review a Cerulli study that interviewed over 800 401k providers, only to find out that less than 30% really want your funds once you leave.

We have experienced less than stellar service over the years with former employees 401k plans – leading to our long suspicion of these findings.

Make Pension Changes/Decisions Carefullythumbs-up-2056022__480

While our favorite commencement benefit for pensions (100% jt survivor) is fairly straight forward, the simplicity ends there.

In this post, we review recent trends in buy outs and what to watch for, as well as the many scenarios we have experienced that are not always in our best interest.

Capital Market Comments –

Good News – Recovery without a Re-test – So far

What a different a month makes – WOW! We literally have gone from the sky is falling to sunshine!

In our summary post in December, we mentioned that fast moving slumps, such as the one we had, frequently do not last long….

Here, earlier in the month we also mentioned that we fully expected some type of retest of those lows before we gained our footing.

We still do expect some type of re-test, but as of this date we have had the following positives that have added to the markets better mood:

  1. Federal Reserve (FOMC) have turned very cautious about raising rates further (We are happily surprised at their yielding, and even more surprised at market participants joy)
  2. Tariff talks are making progress – Interestingly, China has seen a slow down in their economy making for slightly more urgent talks – with a little compromise and statesmanship a resolve looks more likely – again a positive for capital markets.
  3. Earnings are still cranking along – For the prior 4-6 quarters, earnings were red hot and hitting on all cylinders, so hot, they were not sustainable. Companies are still reporting good earnings, just not the Red Hot, overheated earnings from prior quarters – this is good news as it avails the FOMC to not have to raise rates to slow the economy –

All in all a Win- Win!

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of February!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Candid Market Expectations – VERY Short Term – Now We are Prepared!

We shy away from making market prognostications as rarely do markets do what most think will happen.

This time, due to the recent movements we are straying from our safe place in order to give you a heads up on our best and most likely very short term market movement that may be coming.

For the record we hope we are wrong, but feel we wanted to give you a heads up on our thoughts – again this is VERY SHORT TERM (unlike us to talk about it) and we will likely not mention it much as, short term to us is usually three years or more ….

Market Expectations – VERY SHORT TERM

We feel is it very likely we will go back and test our recent lows – there are a ton of crazy reasons why this happens, and in our chart we have marked in green arrows prior tests along with our expectations of our next test.

The reasons will likely be an excuse, a headline of some sort, or an outside event that suddenly seems to make markets more concerned (why does momentum change in a sporting event? not always clear) – no matter, our best guess is that we WILL re-test this recent low!

It’s possible we will go farther down than the prior or maybe not as far – either way, it is VERY likely we will go back for a re-test.

Longer term – will not matter at all, just like turbulence on your flight!

Let’s all watch – just like Eagle Scouts’ motto – Now we are prepared!

1-12-19 spx chart and expectations

Have a Great “Ready for the Re-test” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

Q 1 2019 Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 4 2018 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click Here for direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going!

 Q 1 2019 Newsletter 

And here is your review!

Capital Market Talk

The Grinch Came to Christmas

Just a few days into the final Quarter of 2018, market participants became grumpy and continued their coal ways all the way through the end of the year – a seasonally strong historic period of time.

In our main capital market article we discuss the reasons why – no one knows for certain, and discuss the speed of the decline along with what the future may hold..

Updated Personal Theft Story

After having three credit cards stolen which we spoke of here, an interview with a detective brought to light some amazing stories of theft

  1. Never give gift cards as a payment –
  2. Don’t fall for fake blackmail –
  3. Have a safe word for fake kidnappers or other similar scams

Meet Jennifer Hill “Jen” Our New Operations Manager

In a more in-depth article that expands on her background, Jennifer “Jen” Hill has our formal introduction along with several fun pictures including a Charlie’s Angels and a D Magazine Wealth Managers Picture from our honored award of D Magazine’s Best Wealth Managers.

We hope you enjoy … talk to you in the Spring!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Fourth Quarter 2018 Cover Letter

Thank you for your wonderful digestion of the recent market volatility. 

We have seen so many reports, articles, studies that show this is more of the normal and what we had lived through for the past multiple years was less normal. However, what we have experienced most recently is what we become accustomed to. We’re not going to quote you some article or historical fact that says this is the norm-even we have been uncomfortable with the sudden movements. 

Just like we all became more accustomed to low volatility and capital markets that seem to increase day by month by quarter almost without ever dropping, we will again get used to this type of movement. 

We don’t like it, and would rather not have it, and yes history says it’s more the norm but we’d rather have the abnormal – this is where we are now. We thank you for all of your confidence and once again given the recent volatility we are happy we are a more conservative firm. 

It is a true statement that Markets have predicted 10 of the last 4 recessions. Meaning they often fret over things that do not occur, but that extra fretting tends to be correct is some cases. We acknowledge that the global economies are not growing “Red Hot” fast like they were last year, however we refute a global meltdown or imminent recession at this time.  

After promising (Federal Open Market Committee – FOMC) multiple rate increases as recent as October (four to be exact) at this time that is not going to happen. With rates being somewhat a reflection of inflation, and inflation being wrung out of the system via technology and outsourcing, rates are likely near their “New Normal” range.  

Earnings are the ultimate driver of capital market returns and interestingly they continue to be churning out very nice, taking into account the market recent volatility, valuations have become much less stressed and even cheap in many cases. 

In Closing 

Your Fourth Quarter summary is enclosed on the front page of this report we have included our most recent investment allocation from your Investment Policy Statement. This is also the time we attach our Private Policy Statement for the year along with our opportunity to offer our latest ADV filings; Requests for review will be accepted via phone, mail or email, and mailed immediately upon request. 

Sincerely, 

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

J.K. Financial, Inc.
PRIVACY POLICY NOTICE
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As a client of J.K. Financial, Inc., you share both personal and financial information
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In order to protect your personal information, we maintain physical, electronic and
procedural safeguards to protect your personal information. Our Privacy Policy
restricts the use of client information and requires that it be held in strict
confidence.
Client Notifications
We are required by law to annually provide a notice describing our privacy policy.
In addition, we will inform you promptly if there are changes to our policy.
Please do not hesitate to contact us with questions about this notice.

 

December 2018 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our December 2018 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

Newbies – We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

December – 2018 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Staying Invisible on the Internet

With concerns of our personal information being constantly delivered/sold to others, we found this really neat chart, here in our post as a great guide on staying invisible on the internet.

The chart is HUGE, noting the many ways we are being tracked this day and age… lots of neat, stop tracking me techniques included…

Capital Market Comments –

Good News – Such Fast Movements May Not  Last as Long

One time when being fast may be to our benefit …

Markets that throw a quick hissy fit frequently get their feet under themselves …

1-6-19 spx -

Using the Great Recession of 07-09 as a guide (below)  – BTW we DO NOT think this is what we are experiencing… it took years for the drop to occur, not days…

1-6-19 spx 07-10

We may be experiencing a slow motion 87, 91 or 99 like drop, which were faster, briefer, caused by outside worry and forces, but certainly concerning at the time!

Let’ all buckle up and be thankful we NEVER drive fast – time will tell!

 

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of January!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Amateur Time on Wall Street – Travel Reminder

A long time friend many years ago told me ….

“John, never go out on Fourth of July and New Years, that’s when the Amateur’s are out!”

But for 1999- 2000 New Year – we have mostly adhered to this, as it really is a true statement.

Wall Street Unwritten Agreement

With a general agreement across Wall Street to let everyone enjoy their family time – markets are historically sleepy with adherence to this unwritten rule.

Recent volatility around this sacred time let’s us know it is “Amateur Hour” currently- as weak hands are releasing assets.baby-507133__480

Every investment we make as a firm is with this type of volatility in mind – while we do not like it, we are aware that it can occur.

Assets are being returned to their rightful owners and presenting opportunity’s for the steady handed.

We would not be surprised to see an extreme rally as the weak hands fade away. If not, we will know Amateur Hour is continuing –

Travel Reminder

Shortly, an early flight awaits the family as a multi-day tennis tournament in a warmer, dryer, state followed by family time into the new year…..

Oddly, our slightly rushed computer replacements will give us complete, clearer, and faster vision remotely –

Rest assured we are watching and will be opportunistic when appropriate!

Have a Great “We are Prepared” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Hard Rain Doesn’t Last as Long – Too Much of a Good Thing … Santa Overload

Given our Tennis travels we often find ourselves in some real crazy weather –

We have a saying “Hard Rain Does’t Last as Long” – because.. well it doesn’t, it just cannot rain real hard for a long time – Market Participants parallel here!

Too Many Santa’s

Last year we took a picture, this year we stopped and shot this video –

Seasons Greetings and Happy Holidays

 

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents