90 Day Treadmill Starting Line – 6.2% Growth Expectations, Energy and Financials Big Winner and Loser

With our self coined fun name, “90 day treadmill” AKA earnings season commencing in full force shortly, we like to pull out our chalk and jot down notes now, and after, for the quarter, to keep track of expectations and reports.

So Where Are We Now? Expecting 6.2%

For this quarter, using the S&P 500 as our proxy, analysts expect only a 6.2% growth rate for this quarter, compared to the same quarter a year ago, according to median analyst estimate.

Last Quarter Treadmill Expectations: Expected 11.6% actual 19.2%

A quick check from last quarter (April/May 2011) as we entered, analysts were expecting 11.6% growth and after the quarter companies had delivered 19.2% growth.

Just comparing the macro growth rates it is easy to see much calmer expectation and all other things being equal (which they never are) a more meager growing capital market.

Winning and Losing Sectors: Energy and Financials

Going into this quarter the two extreme sectors are Energy, with expectations of 36% Year/Year quarterly growth and Financials with a -32% Year/Year quarterly loss. It might look easy to say who this winner and loser is now, but remember there is a very high and low bar set for each of these groups of companies, leading to possible surprises.

We look forward to bringing you updates and notes as the race continues.

Have a Great Day!


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