With Big Ben’s double barrel QE3 announcement over (a major surprise/disappointment to us), and the FOMC’s plans in motion, all eyes will turn to the Race to the Race….Presidential race that is, Tuesday November 6, 2012.
Our favorite two sites for getting probabilities on an election outcome are Intrade and Real Clear Politics. Given the announcement last week the probabilities have increased for an incumbent win according to both sites. Here is the latest chart from Intrade.
According to Intrade above, there is a 67% chance of an incumbent win and according to Real Clear Politics about at 48% incumbent versus 45% for Romney win. Of course in both cases these probabilities are just that, estimates and will certainly change over the coming Race to the Race. We will keep you posted if the odds change again dramatically in either direction.
Have a Great Day!
JK
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