Recently the annual CFA Forecast Dinner was conducted, marking the 10th anniversary of the event, all of which I have had the pleasure of attending. As an active member of the CFA Institute and current board member of the CFA Dallas Fort Worth Society I look forward each year to this function. This year’s event included dinner and discussions from Francois Trahan of Wolf Trahan, and Dan Clifton of Strategas, moderated by Bloomberg’s very own Kathleen Hays.
While we plan on expanding more on this topic in our next newsletter here are the key take aways from the event:
- 70% of our economy now explained by inflation
- China’s easing = America’s tightening
- US Investors, meet your new central banker–China
- South Korea and Australia are early cyclical tea leaves
- Energy’s win is US’s loss
- PBOC has locked their currency to ours, but is loosening
- Japan is the greatest short of a decade
- Domestic Retailers, Builders will show fatigue first and give signals to an US slowdown
- March 1, 2013 sequestered tax issue key to politics
- Economist will lower GDP expectations in the next two weeks
- Defense spending will continue to slow, not investable
- G-20 controls 83% of world GDP
- 7 of top G-20 nations have had presidential election/changes in the last 18 months
- Political six-year itch
- Only thing that fell off the fiscal cliff was Republican support
- Payroll tax increases have yet to play out
- Food and energy which is 22% of GDP explains 80% of US growth
While overall the general theme was bearish, there was room for optimism. Given our skeptical stance this year the discussion was a little grease on the wheels, but not gasoline on the fire.
Kathleen Hays was a terrific moderator and impressed the crowd with her knowledge and several pointed questions that resulted in a seat squirming answers…Well Done Kathleen, I am a new fan.
Tonight I hop a plane and depart the state for the remainder of the week, but of course will be happily tethered electronically. I will be checking in on Friday before a holiday extended President’s day weekend to wish you a good weekend, and of course update.
Have a Great Day!
JK214-706-4300 http://www.jkfinancialinc.com 8222 Douglas Ave # 590 Dallas, TX 75225