Updated Market Thoughts and Two Corona Resources … Spring Break …Office Hours Next Week

While we have fun in our writings here, the real reason for this venue is for times like now!

Over the recent week there have been a number of events occurring that are causing Capital Market jitters…. here are our updated candid, serious, thoughts.

Market Update and Corona Resources

The cancellation of most sporting and almost any other group events has sent chills down many, and has filtered into the Capital Market movement –

Given our fight our flight wiring, each of us have two ways to digest these events… couple of examples

“Cancellation of almost all sporting and group events!”

  1. Wow, this must be really bad, I better hunker down and get ready for a terrible event…
  2. Wow, they are really doing a great job on nipping this in the bud quickly, this will be over faster than we know!

“Capital Markets are really jumping around, and have dropped in value!”

  1. Wow, the value in my 401k/Investment Portfolio/Company Stock plan has dropped, look at the money if have lost…
  2. Wow, this is what we have been waiting for, we have been prepared and things are on sale finally, in a year, I bet I will be really glad to have re-invested or made additional opportunistic (but not heroic ore reckless) buys!

Clients – We are on point two in both cases, its really easy to go down path one, maybe much easier…but try to stay on point two!

Our Best Corona Resources

In keeping you on point two above, we feel it is important you stay informed… as such we have the following two best of the best websites for Corona Virus Tracking…

Johns Hopkins Dashboard – Mentioned earlier- This is great for tracking specific geographic areas and we are closely monitoring the chart in the far right lower corner for a leveling of growth… this site is updated less frequently but daily at least

Worldometer Corona Tracker – This is updated constantly and give you an almost live feed of information, although not as pretty format as the above…

Blending these two will give you a good, comprehensive view of what it going on… IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT… all of us may not!

We have no idea how long this will last and we have no idea what Capital Markets will do… no one does at this time.

In time, this will pass… when the all clear bell rings, Capital Markets will likely be much higher as relief is priced in quickly!

Careful on your reading or listening in-take… the most EXTREME predictions tend to make the headlines!

Office Hours and Spring Break

Accomplishments for the year continue as next week is Spring Break for the school bound 12 year old,  who was also part of the early year goal to spend more time….

Careful when you give them the go ahead on Spring Break Wishes…grrrr

Current the two of us are out of town, in a warmer place that would accommodate the two dogs… with other family members arriving soon.

We will be in and out of the office next week, but fortunately have good Wifi in our location!

Sorry for the HEAVY post today, but wanting to give you our best and candid thoughts!

Have a Great Friday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

Mortgage Rates Reach ALL TIME LOW According to Freddie Mac … Get Ready, but Wait (days, not weeks) to Pull the Trigger …

As the experience notches in the belt gain in quantity, we have learned the follies of attempting to PREDICT or FORECAST events …. luckily we gave a soft “heads up” that rates MAY be in our corner due to the Corona Virus, and help with longer term Mortgage and other longer term fixed interest rate loans ….

Freddie Mac Reports Lowest Mortgage Rates EVER

According to Freddie Mac….

“The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a record 3.29 percent this week, the lowest level in its nearly 50-year history. ” 3-5-20

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Here is the deal…. rates fell AGAIN in the most recent week due to fears of Economic slowdown from the Corona Virus…. but maybe TOO FAST for Mortgage and other longer termed Fixed Rate loans to adjust … On Friday, after the above rates were calculated, the 10 year Treasury, our guidepost for rates, dropped another 22 Basis Points or almost another 1/4 point ….. 

Far right, the 10 year treasury yield fell like a rock as fear stoked investment from across the globe…. yesterday for the first time it took a breather as bonds fell and rates rose…no matter, these are Low Low Low rates!

3-10-20 Ten year treasury

Reach out to your bank, Mortgage Broker, or other refinancing officer, and get your documents in order … begin the qualification process but WAIT (days, not weeks) just a bit and check with your loan professional before locking that rate as it is likely the recent drop in rates has not yet dripped through the loan system…. hopefully better loan rates may be in our very near future…

Here is your friendly reminder on Refinancing or not:

“Think 18 months cost break even – We like to have the saving from the refinance cover the cost of the refinance within 18 months – i.e. Person with $30k mortgage at 5% probably would not need to refinance to 4%, but a $3 million mortgage may be smart to refinance from 4.25% to 4% or the like, if the numbers work out.”

Here is the complete Post which contains 11 items to remember when refinancing!

Take advantage of what cards we are dealt!

Have a Great “All Time Low Rates” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Russian Saudi Tiff Leads to Oil Spigot Opened up, FANTASTIC Corona Virus Dashboard … All You Need to Know

Events over the weekend and today’s market movements destroyed the immediate pertinence of a Great Loan Refinancing Post … it will be even more timely after the dust settles on the current events…

More important now in our minds, knowledge of what is going on…

You will likely run into multiple stories today that may not tell the complete picture due to the 140 character world we all want to live in, so we wanted to clear the air and arm you with straight forward information.

Saudi Russian Tiff Leads to Spigot Opening

Over the weekend, last Saturday afternoon after an OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Export Countries) meeting where Russia stepped away from the meeting and the organizations policies …. Saudi officials announce a Shock and Awe spigot turn on and directly attacked certain Russian markets with even lower initial oil price sales… Here is a great Bloomberg Article that you should be able to read even without a subscription (3 free reads a month) …

Key Takeaways:

  • Overzealous Egos know no barriers (Not kidding)
  • Lower Oil Prices will seep into your life and pocket book in the form of savings
  • This has nothing to do with the Corona Virus 
  • Markets will be jittery because of the prior point fear

Corona Virus Update

Donald the Brain located the best comprehensive dashboard site (may need patience as many are sharing this wonderful site, putting pressure on the page) I have seen, this is from Johns Hopkins University …. feel free to move the center globe around to your location and see just exactly how many cases are near… (likely not as many as you think)

Here is a fantastic chart from the dashboard that shows a high level picture of the Virus outbreaks, but also the recovered…

3-9-20 Corona Virus Infections rate

  • Looks like China has a handle on this already…(Top line)
  • New location Ex China virus confirmations may already be topping (Bottom line)
  • Recoveries are accelerating, exactly what you want to see (Middle line)

I know some of the headlines are frightening and the market movements are fast today triggered by some big Ego’s…go figure!

Hopefully this clarity will help you, should you run into something that may lead you down a different path!

Unknowns eventually become knows, and clarity is found!

Have a Great “Now You Know” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Spring Has Sprung … at Least Here in the South, Time Change Weekend …. Friday Enjoy

Our gang is not fond of the dark months….

Seemingly extra rain made for dark AND WET months this year….

Think that is a light at the end of the tunnel, not an on coming Train…

Time change is this weekend…. YAY – The family will gladly give up the sleep for the light in the evening….

Harder to get to sleep on time… WORTH IT!

Spring Has Sprung

Usually by the time each season nears its end, we are ready… this year, we were ready a few weeks (maybe a month..haha) ago… but finally here it comes… pics from the back yard and the neighborhood, again here in Texas…

The tree in the back yard is famous for being the first to bloom… no idea what type it is, but it is ALWAYS first across the blooming finish line…

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Ran across this on a local neighborhood bridge while headed for a long walk…. lots of colors…  SPRING HAS SPRUNG!

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Today is a Friday… enjoy your weekend…

More Heavy stuff next week if necessity dictates!

Happy “Spring has Sprung” Friday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Interest Rates Presenting an Opportunity, Eventually … Current Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates as of Last Week

Really like to work on articles a few days, to even a few weeks (ever so often months) in advance … repeat visits to the draft make for a better post as different moods make for different views.

Well…given the speed of Capital Markets lately… a second or third look may garner a loss of possibility.

Break In: As mentioned above, things are moving quickly, yesterday early in the AM, FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) chaired by Jerome Powell lowered interest rates by .50 or 50 basis points as an insurance policy against slowing economic conditions. This does not directly affect loan rates, but speaks to a slower economic situation, which does effect rates across the board!

More on this at a later time…. but the following is an all time inter-day low yesterday for the 10 year treasury yield…at least for the moment!

img_6213

.91% – this from the cell, such the unusual format.

Break In Again: Interestingly, after a big rally on Monday and another set for today, the treasury yield is unexpectedly staying low and not rising dramatically in yield, which is what one would expect. This actually gives loan rates time to catch up in their possible slower decline – making this exercise all the better!

Now… let’s carry on …

Fixed Rate Loans, Especially Long Dated, such as 30 Year Mortgages Need Review

Not withstanding the comments in the opener, interest rates have dropped so fast on Virus fears and possible slowing economic conditions as a result that some loans may have not completely caught up as of yet…

3-2-20 Chart of 10 year Treasury

That is an all time low- WOW!

Freddie Mac Rates

Here are the latest average mortgage rates from Freddie Mac as of last week… they are posted only weekly….

2-27-20 Freddie Mac Avg Rates

Now is a good time to review any fixed rate loans, ESPECIALLY longer dated ones… in refinancing a mortgage, here is a detailed post, the following is the most important nugget from that post…

Think 18 months cost break even – We like to have the saving from the refinance cover the cost of the refinance within 18 months – i.e. Person with $30k mortgage at 5% probably would not need to refinance to 4%, but a $3 million mortgage may be smart to refinance from 4.25% to 4% or the like, if the numbers work out.

Have a Great “Fast Moving Markets” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

February 2020 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our February 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Break In – Cool New Feature – In the past we have done our videos on YouTube and this video will also be on our Channel there, however, we have added new features to our site here, that allows us to embed the video here, AND you will not get hit with tons of advertising after the video…. hope you enjoy!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

February – 2020 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

All About the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund)

In an abbreviated three part series, a preview to our extended Q2 Newsletter Article, we discuss the origination of the very first Index ETF called SPY nick named the Spider and then the proliferation, and finally in part 3 of our series the dangers of non liquid ETF’s during stress,… never knowing stressful times were just around the corner.

Here are links to each post:

Capital Market Comments

This is a year to date graph of the S&P 500, Dow Jones and the Russell 2000 (Small Companies) indexes.

A silly but true Wall Street Saying comes to mind…

“Markets Go Up on an Escalator and Down on the Elevator!”

We left a different chart off because it looks more dramatic and there is enough drama around the Virus and Market Reactions.

Couple of Interesting Statistics for you to keep the perspective

  • So far this season, 60 Million people in the US have contracted the flu (CDC)
  • So far this season, 14 thousand people in the US have died from the flu (CDC)
  • There are 22 – yes TWENTY TWO confirmed cases of Corona Virus infections at this time
  • One death from the Corona Virus
  • Capital Markets are where they were just 4 months ago – We got back there fast… see saying above

3-1-20 YTD Index Returns

Possible Chance – All time 10 Year Treasury Low

The chart below is of the 10 year treasury yield, which loosely correlates to Mortgage rates…

This is an all time low! 

We would wait a little before actually taking action, as the swift movement down in rates is likely not reflected yet- but get ready….

Touch base with your Mortgage Professional or us –

Consider Lowering and Locking any fixed rate mortgages or loans!

Here is a Detailed Article on our Thoughts

3-1-20 Treasury 10 year all time low

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of March!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Thoughts On the Corona Virus and Market Reactions – Speed is Our Friend

This day is usually reserved for our end of the month video, or an easy Friday slide into the weekend post, however, we wanted to give you our thoughts and explanations regarding the Virus and Market Reactions.

Speed is Your Friend

Generally, recessions and deep Ugly Bear Markets, take time to occur…. the Wall Street name is “Rolling Tops” and long deep declines.  Fast forward to current conditions …. Think of 1987, 2011, 2016, 2018 and now today… these are quick drops … almost protests, by market participants, with much faster than normal recoveries…. We are certainly not guaranteeing this will occur again, but of the three most recent, the faster they fall, the faster they recover… The recent moves are over 4, yes FOUR days… (More to come in this repeated quick drops in the future!)

2-27-20 S&P 500

The Weatherman Affect

The CDC Center for Disease Control has been releasing information, especially serious information mid-week, that have directly and correctly affected the capital markets. The CDC needs to warn us for the worst possible scenario just like the weatherman needs to warn us for the tornado or hurricane, if not warned of the worst possible scenario, we may be in worse shape … and correctly complain of lack of information. This being said, some of the frightening statistics or actions that you may have crossed paths with, are likely not going to happen.

Capital Markets Finally Take Notice

Oddly from our perch, until this week, Capital Market (participants) basically ignored the Virus and the possible affects. This in part, may be why we are seeing such a big reaction (likely an over reaction) at this time!

Logically a virus that causes cities to shut down … no matter where they are, will lead to some type of economic slowdown.  Much to our surprise, capital markets, until recently had basically ignored this possibility. While we hate when capital markets go down, especially with such speed, there is a logical reason.

2-27-20 Index 5 days trailing

Due to the recent volatility, in groundhog like fashion we’re back where we started from and even a bit lower than the start of the year. Investors have acted rationally racing to the safety of bonds, pushing yields down, bond prices up as can be seen in the next graph. (Notice how the Yield spreads all collapse together recently, see next comments)

2-26-20 YTD Bond spreads

With spreads so close, and yields once again down (bond prices up- safety haven) it is not surprising, the inverted yield curve has once again raised its head.

2-26-20 Yield Curve 90 day 10 year 20 year chart

With market participants hating uncertainty,  until clarity is found concerning the spreading of this virus, we would expect capital markets to be very susceptible to headline stories, both positive and negative over reactions would not be surprising … Once again, another reason we like to have a conservative posture and will sit tight and be opportunistic as needed!

Hang tight, and pick your reading/viewing material carefully, it is very likely by the time it gets warm, much of this will be behind us, and a distant memory!

Enjoy your Friday and weekend…. sorry to be so heavy, but we wanted to share our candid thoughts!

Have a Great “Virus Updated” Friday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents