August 2017 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update- By John Kvale

Here is our August 2017 Monthly review.

August 2017 Video

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

1 Minute Video Series – Six of them to be exact

Over the last six weeks we had fun recording our first series of videos on our New Total Vault …. A total of Six to be exact!

  1. Finding your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  2. Resetting the Password on your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  3. Uploading Important Docs to your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  4. Connecting outside Accounts to your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  5. Running nifty reports from your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  6. Constant Improvements coming from your Cool New TOTAL Vault

All of these can be found using our search feature on our blog here or here at our main website.

Capital Market Comments

The “Natural” rate of Employment/Unemployment

In this post during the month we take a deep look at the Unemployment rate and just why it was not different this time, but why it took so long to normalize.

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It is not to much of a stretch to think normalization took longer because it has been such a slow recovery. VERY SLOW — this recovery is the far right weak line with the lowest slope.

JPMorgan GDP expansion chart

See you at the end of September.

Happy Summer!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Friday Labor Day Weekend – Office Hours – Hurricane Harvey wishes

This coming Labor Day Holiday Monday represents the unofficial end of summer to some, my gang, as mentioned last week feel freedom was lost this week, with school starting this most recent Monday.

  • Many Pools Closedfootball-1-1551755
  • Full schedules to start
  • Homework, homework, homework
  • Shorter lighted days — yikes

BUT… are you ready for fall sports !

Capital Markets, as well as our office, will be closed on Monday, in honor of labor day.

Hurricane Harvey

We are sending our best wishes to all those friends, families and clients displace by Hurricane Harvey! We are happy to report Donald “The Brain” has had minimal damage up to this point and is safe and sound. We do have relatives and friends back in the new path and wish them safety and well being…

Given the devastation it looks to be years of rebuilding. Many blessings and well wishes!

Once again a test of the resilience of our country that will certainly be endured but will be collaborative as we regroup and rebuild!

Have a great Friday and long weekend!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

1 Minute Video New Vault Series – Continued Updates and New Reports

In a neat coincidence of the subject of the last video for this series, we had intended on reminding that additional information, updates and constant improvements are a part of our New TOTAL Vault.

Continued Improvements and Updates

Last week, after our most recent Video, new updates were made for a more clean look on the landing page…

We have only touched the Tip of the iceberg of the powers that our New TOTAL Vault contains … giving us many more features and powers to roll out in the future.

Estate Planning Graphs is one of our favorites and is being rolled out on a case by case basis due to the complexity.

Have a great Continued Improvements Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Natural Rate Of Unemployment/Employment ?

Post great recession of 07-09, many including ourselves were not certain just what the rate of Employment or Unemployment the US economy would run at in the future.

  • It was different this time many said?
  • Technological advances and replacement would push many out of employment?
  • Aging demographics may push the rates to different/higher/lower levels?

With almost 10 years in the books since the great recession began, we now know just what did change? Not much!

Full Employment/Unemployment history

Taking a look at this chart from FRED a research tank at the St Louise Federal Reserve, while it took longer to get back to historical levels, it finally has.

Granted there can be debates on the scope of the current employment rate, but from a high level measure stick such as this, it looks normal.

This longer term fantastic chart from this research report of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, shows the same.

 

Why did it take so long to normalize?

One good question many have asked is why did it take so long to normalize again?

The great recession was just that, so GREAT, it really put dents in the economy making this one of the slowest recoveries on record.

The weakest recovery line (slowest and lowest in the chart) represents this recovery. (This chart from our friends at JPMorgan.)

JPMorgan GDP expansion chart

The good news about such a slow recovery is that is has also become one of the longest, due to just that fact, slow and gradual, and certainly not overheating!

Have a Great Full Employment Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

Natural Rate of Employment … Eclipse … Last day of freedom from my gang (School Starting) … Friday

Post great recession of 07-09, many including ourselves thought a new natural (higher) rate of unemployment might be in the cards.

Given a decade of history in the books since the start of the great recession, a more clear and somewhat surprising answer has occurred. Look for a detailed review next week.

Eclipse20170823_001200000_iOS

What a neat experience to see the Eclipse this week… of course with appropriate protective eyewear. Nice picture Sophia..

While not sure if it is the summer season or the magnitude of the eclipse across the country … no matter, the capital markets almost came to a screeching halt, at least in trading during the afternoon of the eclipse.

There truly are humans behind those trading machines still .. see our AI review here too for more insights.

Good bye Summer – Last day of Freedomend-of-summer-1-1235145

According to my just about fourth and seventh graders, freedom comes to a halt today, as next week starts the school year grind for them…

  • Early to bed
  • Early to rise
  • Standard schedules –
  • Homework
  • Friends and fun

Doesn’t sound all that bad … only 180 more days to go! Ouch … Oh well!

That is all next week … and today is a Friday heading into the last weekend of freedom … I Guess?? (haha) Enjoy!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

1 Minute Video New TOTAL Vault – Reports

In this handy video, we show you the Report feature of your New TOTAL Vault…

As a quick reminder,  all of our Vault Series Videos are being posted on our web page here

Report Feature of New TOTAL Vault

  • Log into the landing Net Worth Page of your Vault using your credentials
  • Click on the “Reports” tab at the top of the page
  • Under the “Report Selection” Tab, various reports are available – we will be adding more too

 

There you have it, easy as that to find, view and print reports from your New TOTAL Vault!

Have a GREAT Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

AI – Artificial Intelligence to take over the World? Nah….

The possibilities seem endless.

An 18 wheeler that can drive across the country at night with less traffic and no human to interfere!

No parking lots, as all needed cars could be used as needed and no unnecessary excess – land savings, energy saving and environmental savings!

A robot does the job, endlessly with no rest.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Jets cooled

In this recent neat Wharton School Panel Review Report  a lot of cold water is tossed on some of the possibilities …. (Wharton is our friend as occasional co-host of live Sirius Radio Your Money, with Kent Smetters)

But First a few recent headlines!

CNBC 7-19-17 “Half of American Jobs are at risk from automation, new study suggests

The Guardian 9-13-15 “Self driving cars: From 2020 you will be permanent back seat driver

Not so Fast on AI – Artificial Intelligence Taking Over the WorldRobot - man-320276__340!

 

On Self Driving Cars

From the Wharton Panel Review.

Vijay Kumar, dean of engineering at University of Pennsylvania (very credible position for opinion)

“It turns out that so much of what appears in mainstream media about self-driving cars being just around the corner is very much overstated …”

“In other words, many optimistic articles about autonomous vehicles overlook the fact that it will take many years to get enough data to make fully self-driving cars work at a large scale — not just a couple of years.”

“A fundamental problem is that most observers do not realize just how vast an amount of data is needed to operate in the physical world — ever-increasing amounts, or, as Kumar calls it — “exponential” amounts”

So this makes sense to us … the last few incremental steps for this to actually occur may be MUCH greater than many think, it’s just harder to get the last 100% completely automated vehicle.

Calling Elon Musk Out

Again from Professor Kumar …

“Elon Musk will also tell you that batteries are improving and getting better and better. Actually, it’s the same battery that existed five or 10 years ago.” What is different is that batteries have become smaller and less expensive, “because more of us are buying batteries. But fundamentally it’s the same thing.”

There sure seems to be a lot of confusion on this subject… some say the batteries are getting better, but few can prove it at this point…

Machines still have a long way to go

“In the near future, no one needs to worry because machines are pretty dumb….” Kumar said. As an example, Fung (Pascale Fung, a professor of electronic and computer engineering at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) explained that she could make a robot today capable of doing some simple household chores, but, “it’s still cheaper for me to do it, or to teach my kids or my husband to do it. So, for the near future there are tons of jobs where it would be too expensive to replace them with machines. Fifty to 100 years from now, that’s likely to change, just as today’s world is different from 50 years ago.”

We find this extremely interesting, greatly enjoy the views and encourage you to read the article….

The Total Opposite View

In February of 2015 we had the opportunity to listen to Peter Diamandis and wrote a report on his findings here

He said two years ago, that computers would be faster/smarter than humans in eight years .. here is the chart from the report we wrote…

Computer Power Expanding

Someone is wrong!

Differing opinions are great!

Likely somewhere between 6 years and 100 … Ok , know its wide, but that’s the extreme from both views !

Careful what you believe!!!

Hope you enjoyed!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com