Advanced GDP came in at -3.8% which by no means is good, but not nearly as bad as economists had expected.
The early part of a recovery is often established by expectations becoming more in line with realities. Over the last 90 days, most expectations have been too rosy, resulting in disappointment. Generally, economists and analysts remain too positive as things get worse, and then overshoot to become too negative, as things get better.
By all means this is no victory lap, but it is worth watching to see if economists and analysts are beginning to go too far to the negative side.
No one ever said this was easy, and we are certainly not bashing forecasters, only describing the process, which we hope will help you understand what is happening with us shedding light on some of the usual mistakes. JK