Category Archives: Economy

January 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our January 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

Newbies – We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

January – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Get and Earlier than normal start on those Taxestaxes control-1027103_1280

Here in this post, we remind everyone that due to the new tax laws, it will be a good idea to get your tax information to your professional as soon as possible.

If your using tax software, be sure to do the recommended updates as we feel certain there will be necessary updates to the tables along the way.

Corrected 1099’s are the usual, with only a few last year, we will give everyone the green light once we get our first round of corrected tax forms – but again go ahead and get started with your taxes!

Stunning Findings about your old employer 401kabonded dawn-3358468__480

We had long suspected as much, but in this post we review a Cerulli study that interviewed over 800 401k providers, only to find out that less than 30% really want your funds once you leave.

We have experienced less than stellar service over the years with former employees 401k plans – leading to our long suspicion of these findings.

Make Pension Changes/Decisions Carefullythumbs-up-2056022__480

While our favorite commencement benefit for pensions (100% jt survivor) is fairly straight forward, the simplicity ends there.

In this post, we review recent trends in buy outs and what to watch for, as well as the many scenarios we have experienced that are not always in our best interest.

Capital Market Comments –

Good News – Recovery without a Re-test – So far

What a different a month makes – WOW! We literally have gone from the sky is falling to sunshine!

In our summary post in December, we mentioned that fast moving slumps, such as the one we had, frequently do not last long….

Here, earlier in the month we also mentioned that we fully expected some type of retest of those lows before we gained our footing.

We still do expect some type of re-test, but as of this date we have had the following positives that have added to the markets better mood:

  1. Federal Reserve (FOMC) have turned very cautious about raising rates further (We are happily surprised at their yielding, and even more surprised at market participants joy)
  2. Tariff talks are making progress – Interestingly, China has seen a slow down in their economy making for slightly more urgent talks – with a little compromise and statesmanship a resolve looks more likely – again a positive for capital markets.
  3. Earnings are still cranking along – For the prior 4-6 quarters, earnings were red hot and hitting on all cylinders, so hot, they were not sustainable. Companies are still reporting good earnings, just not the Red Hot, overheated earnings from prior quarters – this is good news as it avails the FOMC to not have to raise rates to slow the economy –

All in all a Win- Win!

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of February!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Q 1 2019 Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 4 2018 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click Here for direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going!

 Q 1 2019 Newsletter 

And here is your review!

Capital Market Talk

The Grinch Came to Christmas

Just a few days into the final Quarter of 2018, market participants became grumpy and continued their coal ways all the way through the end of the year – a seasonally strong historic period of time.

In our main capital market article we discuss the reasons why – no one knows for certain, and discuss the speed of the decline along with what the future may hold..

Updated Personal Theft Story

After having three credit cards stolen which we spoke of here, an interview with a detective brought to light some amazing stories of theft

  1. Never give gift cards as a payment –
  2. Don’t fall for fake blackmail –
  3. Have a safe word for fake kidnappers or other similar scams

Meet Jennifer Hill “Jen” Our New Operations Manager

In a more in-depth article that expands on her background, Jennifer “Jen” Hill has our formal introduction along with several fun pictures including a Charlie’s Angels and a D Magazine Wealth Managers Picture from our honored award of D Magazine’s Best Wealth Managers.

We hope you enjoy … talk to you in the Spring!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

December 2018 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our December 2018 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

Newbies – We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

December – 2018 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Staying Invisible on the Internet

With concerns of our personal information being constantly delivered/sold to others, we found this really neat chart, here in our post as a great guide on staying invisible on the internet.

The chart is HUGE, noting the many ways we are being tracked this day and age… lots of neat, stop tracking me techniques included…

Capital Market Comments –

Good News – Such Fast Movements May Not  Last as Long

One time when being fast may be to our benefit …

Markets that throw a quick hissy fit frequently get their feet under themselves …

1-6-19 spx -

Using the Great Recession of 07-09 as a guide (below)  – BTW we DO NOT think this is what we are experiencing… it took years for the drop to occur, not days…

1-6-19 spx 07-10

We may be experiencing a slow motion 87, 91 or 99 like drop, which were faster, briefer, caused by outside worry and forces, but certainly concerning at the time!

Let’ all buckle up and be thankful we NEVER drive fast – time will tell!

 

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of January!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Fire Hydrant Volume of Company and CEO Meetings – Southwest Ideas Conference – 70 Publicly Traded Companies

Once a year, luckily we are invited to a local event that includes over 70 – yes it has grown to 70 publicly traded company visits and presentations…

Annual Southwest Ideas Conference

Through two close friends, one who organizes the event and the other who owns the company that organizes the event, we are invited, luckily, once again to the Southwest Ideas Conference here in Dallas –Southwest Ideas Investor Conference

This year’s event includes over 70 publicly traded companies of various size, location and industry –

We love this event as it gives us a chance to not only meet C – level executives of these companies up close and personal, but to also hear their outlooks, economic forecasts, insights, and general feelings of what is going on in their various industries….

We look forward to the rapid fire, multi-meeting all day event and look forward to bringing you any interesting updates that we may stumble upon…

Have a Great “Fire Hydrant C Level Visits” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Great Economic News – Why Some are Frowning?

On Friday, the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their regularly monthly employment report – this is the first report in some time where ….

“Good News is Bad News?” 

Here is why some believe this!

Good Economic News  = Bad News?

Last Friday, November 2, 2018 the BLS released their regular monthly employment report that showed terrific economic numbers.

A fantastic, total 3.7% unemployment rate.

11-2-18 BLS Emp Report

In addition to the above Unemployment level, average hourly earnings were also released and they were up 3.1% year over year — breathing a much needed pay increase to many ….

The bad news for many is that they believe these good numbers will give the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ammunition for continued rate increases.

Currently FOMC members are on record saying they will raise rates in December and three more times next year (2019).

The worry is an eventual inverted yield curve – which we have mentioned many times is a very good precursor to a recession!

11-2-18 90 daty v 10 year fredgraph

By looking at this chart, we are far from an inverted yield curve at this time- leading us to believe this “Good News = Bad News” may be very unwarranted…

Now you know the rest of the story !

Have a Great “Good News is GOOD News” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Three Economic Charts that should make Us all Feel Good – 3.8% Unemployment Rate

Post great recession, the Unemployment rate went into double digits … +10% …. Many including us thought the new natural level of unemployment may be near 6% – prior to the great recession most believed 4% would be the all time low…

3.8% Unemployment Rate

The regular monthly Employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last Friday, June 1 that the Unemployment rate hit 3.8% — Yes 3.8%!

Wow….

 

6-3-18 Unemployment Rate Fred

Naysayers would say this will put pressure on wages, pushing up the CPI – Consumer Price Index – indirectly forcing the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to raise rates fast — possible inducing an inverted yield curve…. leading to a recession… got that… sorry for the long domino effect– but this is how Wall Street thinks… perception can become reality… Let’s check the CPI …

6-3-18 CPI St Louis Fred

The CPI looks fine and has not moved up too much.  Here is a possible reason why…

Jolts – Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey

5-8-18 JOLTS Fred

Essentially this is a relatively new statistic that many follow included the FOMC, that shows what the US Economy is producing in the form of jobs…. an increase in this chart means more jobs are available…

More Employment, but more Jobs… No Inflation —

Nice…

Have a Great “Lower Unemployment” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Test and Re-Test ? Where Oh where are Capital Markets going? This likely will take some time …. Weeks for sure and likely Months? … We will need Patience!

After a long lethargic flat-lined Capital Market of 2017, things have finally changed, and we need to begin to get used to more normal Capital Markets.

What follows are details of what the Capital Markets have done over the last few days (yes only days) …  what we should expect moving forward, along with a review of similar historical movement. Given a future that Rhymes with the past, the most important point we want to get across is this —

What we want everyone to understand is it is highly likely we do not just bounce right back and go to highs again quickly, so let’s have patience and set our expectations for an extended Capital Market search for the most appropriate level.

Ok, so you have the most likely scenario, here is why.

Current Capital Market Review

Suddenly the Capital Markets cared about something — and were WAY ahead of themselves, so they began going down!

We thought they might stop at our fancy trend line from our early post on this subject.

2-3-18-spx-w-trendlines-and-jk-notes.jpg

Nope …. participants pushed on past the trend line.

2-12-18 SPX Trendline

Participants decided the 200 Moving Day Average was where they should stop …

 

2-13-18 SPX hits 200 MDA

So we have a stopping spot, what happens next may be best seen by looking at the past for a possible rhyming future.

2016 Rhyme

The first drop was about 24 trading days followed by another 20-25 day test in a few months.

Start to finish about six months with a move all the way back to even before a second drop.

2-11-18 2016 SPX -010% Moves

2012 Rhyme

With two hiccups during this 2012  time frame, again our weekly charts show a 2-4 months of capital market footing discovery ….

2-11-18 2012 SPX Draw downs 10%

 

Let’s settle in for more normal, but what feels like “Rockier” times, which will likely be with us for a while.

  • Economy is Good
  • Global recovery is beginning
  • Interest Rates are Rising but at a reasonable rate
  • Consumers are feeling good

Patience will reward us!

Happy “Patience” Valentine’s day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com