Category Archives: Economy

May 2023 Audio Video Review – Buffet/Munger Words of Wisdom, Debt Ceiling, – Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Posted on May 31, 2023 by | Leave a comment

Hello and Welcome to our May 2023 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

May 2023 Video –


YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Berkshire Hathaway – Buffett Munger Words to Live By

In this post Charlie Munger and Warren Buffet are discussed in great details… along with a secret to speeding the time to listen (1.75x speed)…..

Main thoughts to live by from Charlie and Warren:

  • The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor.
  • If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens.
  • All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there. And a related thought:
    Early on, write your desired obituary – and then behave accordingly.
  • If you don’t care whether you are rational or not, you won’t work on it. Then you will stay
    irrational and get lousy results.
  • Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one
    thing for a long time is a huge advantage.
  • There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero.

Particularly added this as just last week, saw a review of the meeting that completely missed several of these points in my opinion.

Capital Market Comments –

Debt Ceiling Fizzle- All done until after next elections

With several comments from the field, we spoke multiple times, here and here about the Debt Ceiling, the history and the most likely outcome…

Much of our confidence on the matter comes from our contacts that we have developed over the years that try to give us a 100% straight scoop as much as possible…. They could always be wrong, but being numbers folks, we go with the odds…

They were right, once again!

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of June !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Leave a comment

Posted in Audio, Economy, Education, General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Monthly Review, Podcast, Video

Tagged , , , ,

Debt Ceiling History/Thoughts … Pools Ready to Open in our Neighborhoods … Memorial Day on the Horizon …

Posted on May 19, 2023 by | Leave a comment

Would you believe or be surprised to know the US had raised the debt ceiling aka Increased their Credit line some 90 times since the 20th Century? Probably not….

Most including ourselves believe this will get resolved… but there may be drama…. seems more the norm …

By Wikideas1 – Own work https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny, CC0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=131990039

We know the history very well and will not bore you with the things that have happened in the last three or so decades…. just know headlines may be …. ahhhh… dramatic next week!

Speaking of dramatic …. but on a more fun note… Who let the pools out ? Next week!

Memorial Day Weekend Beckons

Next weekend marks the opening of pools, the very wonderful remembrance of those that allow us to safely ponder things like debt ceilings and a long weekend to boot…

Ahhh…that is all next week …. today is a Fun Friday, near the end of the school year for our clan… Enjoy and talk next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Leave a comment

Posted in Debt - Debt Management, Economy, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

Tagged ,

The BTFP – Bank Term Funding Loan Program UPDATE, Created a new process of Banks Merge/Buyout …

Posted on May 8, 2023 by | Leave a comment

Did you happen to catch the Financial System adjusting the way it does business right before your eyes?

No worry, if you said no… it was not super obvious, but worth a quick review for future knowledge…

So here we go!

BTFP- Bank Term Funding Loan Program Makes Adjustments to the Financial System

As we explained in great detail here in this post in March, the Federal Reserve set up a Backstop program for struggling banks. As several more banks have had issues, the creation of this program has changed the way mergers or buyouts will occur while this plan available.

If you are an acquiring bank, no matter desire, you would be crazy not to wait until your desired bank, if under stress, hits up the Federally backed program aka BTFP, as the Government essentially will guarantee much of the buyout once entering the program.

While it may seem unfair or counterproductive to price discovering markets and mergers, possible unintended consequences created from this program…. they are what they are … and look to continue until we are beyond the rain clouds….

Have a Great “Watch the Financial System Adjust” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Leave a comment

Posted in Economy, FOMC, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

Tagged , ,

First Quarter 2023 Review, Advanced Analysis Pilot, Tax Season, Interest Rate Anniversary

Posted on April 10, 2023 by | Leave a comment

Dear Investor:

Putting Q1 of the year (2023) behind us, compared to last year at this time, seemed straight forward. recall last year at this time, we had just began interest rate hikes.

As the calendar turned we began searching for a similar series to last years’ “Back to Basics”, due to the popularity, comments, and sharing that occurred with this multiple series.

By luck or accident, we landed upon the antithesis like series called “Advanced Analysis” in part due to the current economic cycle and the nearing of the end.

Advanced Analysis Pilot

Our Pilot/Part 1 of the series was extremely timely and focused around M2 a broad economic measurement of money sloshing around the financial system. This is discussed in greater detail in our Q2 Newsletter at a very high level. Whether lucky, or preeminent, our observation, was to watch out for more high risk debt players in the capital markets and especially junk bonds. This fact seems to be occurring much faster than originally though.

Tax Season – Hints and Reminders

As we turn to Q2 of the year in what seems like expeditious fashion, it is tax season.  We once again call your attention to our Q2 Newsletter as there are some great last minute tips not only looking forward to this year, but also things available that may help last year’s taxes.

Interest Rate Anniversary – Most Likely Nearing an End

As mentioned in the intro, within the last two weeks we have just passed the start of the interest rate cycle, which was the fastest on a percentage basis we have ever seen The US economy and the global economy for that matter, operate much more like an aircraft carrier then a ski boat in their change of direction. The financial sector seems to be in the early innings with other parts of the economy much later in the economic game cycle. We will get through the slowdown eventually with all parts of the economy and move forward.

Have a great spring. Talk to you in the summer!

Sincerely,

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Enclosure (2023 Report)

Leave a comment

Posted in Clients/Clients Only, Economy, FOMC, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Performance Report Cover Letter, Retirement Planning

Tagged , ,

Q2 2023 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Tax Reminders – Still time for 2022 Savings … M2 Pilot Advanced Analysis Series Review … By John Kvale CFA, CFP …

Posted on March 31, 2023 by | Leave a comment

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q2 2023 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

BREAK IN : From Parting Thoughts in the Newsletter

If you are not receiving our street-cents.com blog posts weekly Monday, Wednesday and Fri-day, please reach out and let us know. We have entered the late cycle portion of this economic slowdown and items are moving much quicker than our quarterly newsletter so we are posting frequent and very important items amongst our sometimes-humorous articles for your review and knowledge.

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

Q2 2023 Newsletter

(YouTube)

q2-2023-j.k.-financial-inc.-audio-newsletter-review-by-john-kvaleDownload

Last Minute Tax Planning and Reminders

After a small top of the mind reminder that it is ok to pay taxes, we do not want to pay zero today and then pay at a much higher rate in the future, we certainly do not want to pay ANY more than we have to, we go into several reminders….

The SEP and the Spousal IRA – two things we can do now that will help last years taxes….

Important Reminder about reporting :

Just because we did not receive a tax form personally, does not mean that the IRS did not receive some type of notification of that taxable event! If you had a transaction, usually of some out of the ordinary type, that you did not receive a tax form for, we are not out of the woods and you should report it.

Lastly, comments about the possible rolling of 529 into Roth… the answer is still up in the air with additional legal clarity on this… but it cannot start until 2024 anyway!

Happy Anniversary Rate Increases

While hard to believe, the monumental rate increases (fastest of a life time in %) just started about a year ago

M2 Broad Liquidity Measure Tightens

In another – not kidding here – never seen before, M2 one of the broadest measures of liquidity, turns negative and makes our Pilot Advanced Analysis Series…

First spoken about in January, the effects are being felt through the financial system.. but not where we had expected so far….

Have a Great Finally Here Spring! Talk in the Summer!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Leave a comment

Posted in Economy, FOMC, General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, John Kvale, Market Comments, Newsletters, Personal, Podcast, Retirement Planning, Tax Related, Video

Tagged , , , , , ,

CoCo Bonds – Contingent Convertible aka AT 1 Bonds – Advanced Analysis Part 3 of ? BREAK IN: Do NOT add to a Bank Run – Easier than you think to Accidentally Do!

Posted on March 27, 2023 by | Leave a comment

DO NOT DOG ON BANKS

BREAK IN:

At a welcome home family dinner last night, the fact that causing a Bank Run is illegal was brought up . Huh?

Yes it is basically illegal to cause harm to a Bank…. aka create a Bank Run… In today’s Social Media frenzy, this could come in the form of a like, sharing a post or forwarding something to a person of influence .. YIKES…

This is getting LOOOONG… so here is the cliff note version: Coco bonds are European instruments (Not USA) with weird exercise rights that can evaporate an investors money if a Bank gets in trouble. These clauses have been invoked already on a European bank, causing renewed knowledge of these instruments and their weird rights.

Back to our Regularly Scheduled Post

One of the absolute favorite things about the Financial world and our industry is the vast amount of diverse products, structures, programs and for that matter super cult like popularity of instruments that come and go throughout the space of time…. all of which make for constant learning- just continuous!.

Our advanced analysis series is meant to cover very complicated items for our high level collective knowledge…. This is a HEAVY one, just as a heads up!

Advanced Analysis Part 3 – Meet the Coco aka AT-1 Bond – A European thing

Coco’s sizzle because they can essentially be converted at the company’s whim, leaving little control to the actual bond holder!

Bonds are debt instruments unlike Equity (stock ownership) in “MOST” cases that have a front row ownership to the company. Said another way, if something happens to the Company a Bond holder is in most cases the very first person to get paid. Bond holders loan the company money only to hopefully get paid interest on that money and eventually the return of that money in the future.

Convertible Bonds as they are most commonly known, give the bond holder the right to convert or exchange those bonds for another ownership strand of the company. Coco bonds are converted if the Banks hit certain levels, which are stress levels, unlike normal convertibles which are fun/happy levels.

When Coco bonds are converted, investors may actually be taking a step back in ownership (Debt to Equity) have no control in when this happens, and may have large losses immediately for doing so.

Coco bonds do pay more interest, but as some (European banks) are finding out recently, this is not near enough to cover the uncontrolled convert at a less than happy time in the investments life.

Chopped this down a bit, as it is a Monday and wanted to get the Break In to everyone… Just trying to explain, in a very small world, that events across the pond, weird as they may be, have ripple effect here in the USA!

Have a Great “Coco Bond Understanding” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Leave a comment

Posted in Advanced Analysis, Debt - Debt Management, Economy, Education, General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

Tagged , , , , ,

Fed Week, Tough Decisions … New “Happy Bank” Back Stop Facility – The BTFP – Bank Term Funding Loan Program … Bank Headlines Continue – Reminder Thought On Late Cycle Headlines …

Posted on March 20, 2023 by | Leave a comment

A while back we mentioned the FOMC – Federal Open Market Committee, lead by Jerome Powell were in a Pickle .. as at that time one of their regional banks had a research report out that GDP- Gross Domestic Production -Economic Growth indicator – was dropping fast and they were going to raise interest rates against a hot CPI = Consumer Price Index – blunt inflation gauge which would exacerbate the situation.

Fast forward to today and that Pickle is not any better…. maybe even more dill! With the afore mentioned Part 1 Advance Analysis M2 review showing dramatically dropping or the pulling of liquidity out of the system, bank fatigue has been seen and felt and here our comments on Banks being a slave to confidence for solvency.

On Wednesday of this week, March 22. 2023 the FOMC is bound by their goal of slowing that sticky inflation we are all seeing, especially at the grocery store, and best measured by the CPI … BUT, this additional rate increase will add fuel to the fire of less liquidity, AND on top of that our neighbors across the pond just raised rates .50% last week, albeit from a much lower 3.00 to 3.50% rate….currently the US rate is 4.75% …

We did say Pickle ? Right….

Enter the BTFP – Bank Term Funding Loan Program – Happy Bank Program

On March 12, 2023 the Federal Reserve Created the BTFP as another backstop for possible Bank Fatigue ..

Press Release

March 12, 2023

Federal Reserve Board announces it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors

For release at 6:15 p.m. EDT

This new program is a sort of Fed Discount Window on Steroids, meant to improve Bank confidence.

Quick History–

Long ago the FED (going back in loose form to the 1920’s – the start of the Fed) started a program for Bank help during stressful times, the Fed Discount Window –

Fed Discount Window –

  • Operation of last resort for a bank
  • Overnight deposit help
  • Anonymous for two years
  • 30 day length, but historically has been lengthened to 90 days
  • Pledge of assets for security – Treasury Securities of all Maturity among other items that are held at par (even value, no gain or loss) or better

BTFP – Bank Term Funding Loan Program

All of the above but the following additions:

  • On Year in Length maximum holding period
  • Pledge of asset securities that may be less than par aka at a loss

The last bullet is the most important and lending a helpful hand from the Fed’s fastest in history rate increase…. as mentioned repeatedly, increase of rates are a headwind to Fixed income aka Bonds, especially longer term bonds….

Some Banks may be seeing a need for immediate liquidity due to loss of confidence and liquidity drain, so this new program essentially gives them liquidity to meet those demands if needed and may have negative assets due to the fast fast rate increases!

Headlines Continue

While this is being written – Sunday late morning in between Newsletter Articles, UBS a Swiss neighbor of Credit Suisse has made a much telegraphed offer to buy their friend out… no idea what the market will make of this starting tonight as overseas markets open…. but something just crossed the mind that we have mentioned many times before…. and may be applicable….

“Headlines are always the worst near the end of the Cycle!”

Have a Great “Heads Up for a Busy Week” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Leave a comment

Posted in Debt - Debt Management, Economy, FOMC, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Retirement Planning

Tagged , , , , ,

Banking is all about Confidence … Experienced Reminders and Hat Tip Advanced Analysis Part 2 the M2 Money Supply!

Posted on March 15, 2023 by | Leave a comment

We will leave the drama headlines for other sources, as there are of course many that will come from the recent West Coast Bank Failure….

Being our second major Rodeo on this one, the Great Financial Crisis (aka GFC) of 07-09 the first, we are reminded of several things – This is NOT the 07-09 Crisis – Don’t go there…

Here are some observations:

  • Risk happens slowly, then all at once (money moves faster than 15 years ago too!)
  • Fears may jump from one to the next during problem times- quickly
  • Events rarely repeat (lightening strike same place twice) but they sure do rhyme
  • It takes a long time for events to play out, not withstanding our first point (this is likely not over)
  • Banking is all about confidence … oddly most recently a storm in the south caused a loss of confidence in gas inventory in our neck of the woods… within hours all gas stations were out of gas! Sound Familiar?

Advanced Analysis Replay – Pat ourselves on the Back Here

Part 2 of our Advanced Analysis – Recall and Reminder – The M2 Discussion

M2 Turns Negative for the First Time and that’s a Long Time!

Posted on January 18, 2023 by John Kvale CFA, CFP | Leave a comment

There are tons of measuring sticks out there…. almost all of which we look at and follow, at least at one time or another…..

What grabs our attention is when the measuring sticks do unique things….or have never happened before!

Why are we watching this?

This draw down of money in the system may put pressure on certain risky players i.e. Companies that use Junk or High Yield Debt!

Closing Thoughts:

We mostly stay away from these “HOT” or maybe even Negative topics, but wanted to let you know we watch this, have spoken in advance of some of the risks, and are using past experience to help guide and monitor the situation!

Have a Great “Experience Matters” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Leave a comment

Posted in Debt - Debt Management, Economy, FOMC, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

Tagged , , , ,

Price Changes 2020 – 2022 – Consumer Related (CPI – Consumer Price Index) – Visual Capitalist

Posted on February 27, 2023 by | Leave a comment

Over the weekend, with rain and overcast for the better part of 4 days… the wheels were working on the February review as well as the Newsletter….

Another nice chart popped into the email box from our Buddies at Visual Capitalist concerning Consumer Costs ….

While you may have seen some similar charts, the layout of this is terrific, as usual ….

Health and Education have run off to the races over the years….

Have a Great “Cost Increase Review” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Leave a comment

Posted in Economy, Education, Interest Rates

Tagged , ,

M2 Turns Negative for the First Time and that’s a Long Time!

Posted on January 18, 2023 by | Leave a comment

There are tons of measuring sticks out there…. almost all of which we look at and follow, at least at one time or another…..

What grabs our attention is when the measuring sticks do unique things….or have never happened before!

M2 – aka Money Supply

According to Investopedia M2 is best described as the following:

M2 is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s estimate of the total money supply including all of the cash people have on hand plus all of the money deposited in checking accounts, savings accounts, and other short-term saving vehicles such as certificates of deposit (CDs). Retirement account balances and time deposits above $100,000 are omitted from M2.

Check out the latest reading of M2

While close in 1994, it stayed positive, for the year 2022… M2 was a negative for the year for the first time ever!

Note also as compared to 1994, the rapid draw down in 2022…

Why are we watching this?

This draw down of money in the system may put pressure on certain risky players i.e. Companies that use Junk or High Yield Debt!

Just a heads up to let you know what we are watching!

Have a Great “M2 Analysis” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Leave a comment

Posted in Advanced Analysis, Debt - Debt Management, Economy, FOMC, General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

Tagged , , , , ,