While no one knows for certain, and we are watching a ton of different indicators, here are three items of note, worth reviewing.
Before we begin, earnings – one of the most important part of capital markets future, are still positive and this year looks to be one of the best on record!
Three Grinch items to review
Inversion Watch – 10 year treasury yield
We have spoken tons of time about the inverted yield curve and a major part of that curve as well as the inversion, is the current rate of the 10 year yield. This chart shows the recent movement of the 10 year yield moving down – this could be expectations of a slower future economy/growth OR it could be just some big money buying bonds – either way, a Grinch twinge to the capital markets.
Technical testing of markets
Oddly, even as we mention in this post the Grinch – in reality the capital market participants are taking their sweet time to test and re-test their levels – ignoring the happy months of November and December – Whatever makes you happy guys!
Is Sentiment Grinchy? – Worth Watching
With 2/3rds of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) being consumer spending, consumer confidence is one of the most important parts of the economy – No Grinch here!
Capital Markets have forecasted many more bad times than have occurred – but in so doing they have also accurately forecasted “Bad Times!” – For now, we are doing our “No Grinch” dance, but watching closely and respecting all!
Have a Great “No Grinch” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP