Category Archives: Economy

TSA Throughput Update – Are We Flying Yet?

Several months ago, we stumbled across TSA Throughput numbers (never knew they existed) and have found interest in monitoring the numbers.

Here was our first look 49 days ago to be exact….

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Over the most recent weekend, on a regularly evening bike ride near the house, two days in a row, multiple large jets made their way over, disrupting the most recently quietened skies…. even enough time for a quick pic …

Time for an update – glad to have kept the chart template -hence the logo too  – so here we go!

TSA Throughput Update – Are We Flying yet?

We are definitely flying MORE …

8-1-20 TSA Throughput w logo

 

 

But hold on … the above chart does not tell the whole story –

8-1-20 TSA Throughput V year ago

Wow… that’s amazing to us … just how fast it was shut down, how much we have come back since the bottom, but yet how much farther we have to go before back to normal….

Will keep the monitoring up, maybe the planes spotted over the weekend were just coincidence?

No matter, time will clarify and we will be watching!

Have a Great “Their Kinda Traveling” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

July 2020 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale …

Hello and Welcome to our June 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

July – 2020 Video (YouTube)

 

Financial Planning Tip  –

Careful Use of Credit Cards to Maximize Perkscredit card

We carefully spoke on the use of Credit Cards and maximizing their points and incentives due to repeated inquiries about the topic, in this post.

Credit Cards can be very dangerous and the card companies want us to carry balances … so PLEASE BE CARFUL!

Vaccine Update – It’s Looking GoodVaccine

In this post we pointed to an excellent Bloomberg Tracker that is showing multiple Phase III drugs about to hit the testing.

Phase III is the last one before mass production… making for a very fast track of multiple possible cures for Covid.

This is also market friendly as well.

Capital Market Comments

The Look Through Continues – Expect Bumps

Not trying to sound like a broken record, but in April we proclaimed that smart market participants may likely look through the valley and over the hill to eventual earnings.

As a reminder, we were really on an island as very few were positive at that time.

They did, and continue to do so … with a bit too much rose colored glasses in our opinion…

We continue to expect bumps as there are tons of unknowns and a negative narrative can take over quickly…

Not letting our guards down!

7-31-20 YTD Large International and Small

Have a Great July Update!

Talk to you at the end of August!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Two Nice Data Points Last Week You May have Missed…. Housing and Employment … An In-House Perspective Too

In case you were busy last Holiday Shortened week (Hope you had a Happy Fourth of July) and missed a couple of important data points …. here they are

MBA Purchasing Index Continues to Do Great

First Mentioned here, back in March, last week (7-1-20) another very strong reading of the MBA Purchase index, which is an index that tracks purchases of homes, (Excludes Refinances) and gives a good future expectation view of home movement, value and transaction…

Click here for the latest release.

On a personal, in-house perspective, with an unusually high 20 and counting residential home movements SO FAR this year, we are seeing a liquid, fair and fast paced market!

Employment Update – BLS

Then, the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statics) released their update on the unemployment rates…

Yes it is still high, but the drop caught many by surprise and was a much greater drop than expected!

7-2-20 Unemplorment Rate BLS Survey

A pretty Good Good economic release week…again, that may have slipped by you!

Have a Great ” Good Last Week Economic Numbers” Monday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

 

June 2020 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale … From the Road

Hello and Welcome to our June 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

June – 2020 Video (YouTube)

 

Financial Planning Tip  –

The Virtual Pivot

Oddly, this heading is the same from last month, but has a different meaning…

Here in this post we discussed how many folks are really enjoying working remotely….

In fact, the mentioned study showed that 98% of folks wanted at least some remote time moving forward…now that’s an incredible Pivot!

b8780aea-4b3c-4faa-81fb-b04cae5c29e9-49855-000003ca0134d2d5

In the future, likely some blending of remote and office…. nothing ever will replace face to face, but a nice blend may cut down on away from family and travel expenses…time will tell.

TSA Throughput Statistics

Over a weekend of surfing stumbling onto the TSA Throughput numbers an idea of sharing via graphic form was posted here in this post.

We even created this neat graph…

6-11-20 TSA Throughput 2020 v 2019

Good thing we did a review of this as the creation spreadsheet made its way to the recycle bend…not any more… it’s safely back now…

Looking forward to reviewing this again in the future to see if this continues?

Capital Market Comments

The Look Through Continues – Expect Bumps

Global markets continue to claw their way back, as investors look through the earnings drop and lowered interest rates help create a tailwind.

Recently, global markets took a few steps back when increases in cases occurred…. this makes sense.

Global markets are likely ahead of themselves….. time will tell, as mentioned in our Newsletter, there is a lot of horsepower aimed at fixing the situation in Unity!

Expect bumps, and headline shocks, both positive and negative … but that’s why we are happily conservative investors at heart!

6-30-20 World Indexes YTD 2020

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of July!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Observations from TSA Throughput … Travelers are Beginning to Travel

Never knew TSA (Transport Security Administration) had a throughput (numbers of people that go through checkpoints) public tracking system.

We do now, and pulled some interesting data from their website over the weekend…

We are certainly not making ANY opinion on traveling or safety … just observations from curiosity…

TSA Throughput Numbers

Early April seems to be the low in passengers … and by all counts, people are getting back on planes…

6-11-20 TSA Throughput 2020

As can be seen from the next chart, while folks are getting out, they are far from normal travel volume, at least using the same time frame a year ago … Right now, looks like about 25% on last year traffic!

6-11-20 TSA Throughput 2020 v 2019

Hope you like these snazzy charts with the logo…figured since we made the charts would take credit.

Finding this so interesting, will review again in the future.

Have a Great “TSA Throughput Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Don’t Fight the Fed Brings New Meaning … Where the Stimulus Funds are Being Parked

During the Great Recession of 07-09, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by then chairman Ben Bernanke, began an unprecedented (at the time), pushing of money into the financial system. Take a peek at the 2008-2009 move upwards in the graph below.

Fast forward to present, and the sequel (usually more dramatic) …. is well, MORE DRAMATIC…. take a look at the horsepower the FOMC is throwing at our current situation…. makes 08-09 look like a mini me version.

Bazooka is fitting!

 

img_1384

Interestingly, these funds are finding their way, conservatively into deposits in institutions, which can be seen by the next chart…. oddly, a non banking crisis as compared to the great recession which was definitely a financial crisis has more worried… hence the parking of money into low interest savings rates.

Will be watching to see if this continues or begins to trickle out into the economy … would be very stimulative if it does!

img_1383

Speaking of the FOMC, they have a meeting today, any major changes in their posture would likely be market moving.

Have a Great ” FOMC has a Bazooka” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

 

 

 

What Happens When You Get A Decidedly Positive Economic Reading, While Expecting Negative?

Last Friday, June 5, 2020 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its regularly schedule monthly report of hiring and firing report nicked name “The Employment Situation”

Closely followed as a broad measure of the health of the economy and the consumer, experts (so called) from all ports of finance (Economist, bankers, investment bankers, brokers) tally their estimates of what the monthly reading will be.

In all fairness, due to bread crumbs from other reports, usually the forecasts are very close and often garner a quick glance and a carry on to other items attention span.

Fridays expectations were for a loss of just over 7 million folks.

Oops – What Happens When You Miss Big?

With an expectation of ( -7 million) more job losses and announcement of +2.5 million gains, caught Market Participants WAY off guard…

6-5-20 Nonfarmpayroll surprise

Interest Rates took note as well… which is very logical, as rates go up as economic conditions expand…

6-5-20 Us 10 year treasury

Likely ahead of ourselves a bit, but heck it is a start….

Bumps most certainly still ahead… but still a start…

Have a Great “Why We Don’t Forecast Much” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

May 2020 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our May 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

May – 2020 Video (YouTube)

 

Financial Planning Tip  –

Mortgage Rates

Looking at the chart of the 10 year treasury, we can see rates have finally settled and we are hearing the volume of lenders overflow has calmed as well. While the 10 year is not an exact predictor of Mortgage Rates it is loosely correlated.

Now may be a good time to check your Mortgage Rate and consider refinancing!

Here is one of our favorite and most popular posts on the items to remember when you are getting a mortgage and especially when you refinance.

5-29-20 10 year us treasury

The Virtual Pivot

In true making Lemonade from Lemons fashion, not only have we been able to access the John Mauldin event, with over forty hours of speakers, but a National CFA(Chartered Financial Analyst) event and several others were completed virtually.

We have so much awesome information to share in the coming weeks…. oddly, that we would have not had access to if they had been held live!

Looking forward to sharing…. tons if info!!

Capital Market Comments – They Came Out!

The Look Through Continues

With current earnings being less than stellar, you may ask why the markets are clawing their way back?

It does appear investors are looking through the valley and attempting to price in what a recovery may look like.

The Tuesday after Memorial Day offered multiple openings across the country…. Wall Street wiped its brow as people came out!

Expect bumps, and headline shocks, both positive and negative … but that’s why we are happily conservative investors at heart!

5-29-20 YTD SP 500 Small Cap International

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of June!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Making Lemonade from Lemons … Virtual Conference Notes …. A Conference Passed on for Over a Decade … Meet Ian Bremmer AGAIN

Choosing not to attend a conference held by John Mauldin for over a decade, due to travel constraints, cost, and bad timing of the conference, this year his big conference of the year went virtual and the price dropped by a two thirds.

Not only because the above, but with a total of 42 speakers and counting, slides and transcripts along with a downloadable MP3 of each speakers talk, Lemonade from lemons occurred, and we signed up.

With over 40 hours of information, we plan on dedicating much if not all of our coming Newsletter to reviews of the speakers … the goal of the conference is to look into the future for “Economic Risks, Challenges and Opportunities in a Post Covid 19 World

Meet Ian Bremmer AGAINIan_Bremmer_headshot

Back in 2016 at a national conference (live, in person) we first crossed paths with Bremmer  (a stand out thinker and Political Scientist)  and wrote about his comments on the then coming election here.

Fast forward to today, and here are a few bullets from his virtual talk we found interesting.

  • Taking 10% out of the Economy now may not feel as bad as times before since we are wealthier now.
  • Maybe this is the crisis needed to really make some big items change.
  • Unilateralism, not isolation. I.e. Canada, US, Mexico will become more connected unilaterally.
  • Will we have a new global order? Nah, just an acceleration of what was happening anyway.
  • Could this be Goldilocks Economy – Yes because this Crisis could bring GEO Political institution updates –
  • GEO Politics are cyclical, just like Economies.

Look for more details, as mentioned above in the coming Newsletter…. but you get the gist… some good stuff!

Have a Great “Bremmer Future Forecast” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Phase 1 Update … A Picture One Week Later in the Same Place … Friday

Two weeks ago today, locally we went to a semi-open Phase 1 opening

Office Buildings are open, but tenants, present party included, are strongly encouraged to visit as infrequent as possible and encourage minimal outside visitors.

We are certainly doing as suggested!

As another example, most private local Clubs (Golf, Tennis etc) in our area are not allowing guests … only members of the clubs and minimal, distanced, visiting activities.

Opening Weekend In Case You Missed It

Here is a picture I took early to mid-day on the weekend of Phase 1 opening, two weeks ago… in case you missed it…

img_6553

Last Saturday afternoon … you can tell from the shadow, on a bike ride, I took this picture, attempting to get in the exact same spot for reference. For the record I was almost run over three times trying to take the picture…

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Again, this is just seven days later of Phase 1, no other changes in Phase levels, or openings by our local or state authorities….

People are beginning to come out, but still minding all the rules.

Today is the Three Week anniversary of Phase 1 release…and a Friday…

Be safe, Be well … and Have a Good Weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents