Category Archives: Economy

Earnings, the key to Capital Market Growth … Let’s get an update?

The ultimate driver of Capital Markets are Earnings. Yes, we can argue about interest rates, currencies, world political and economic cycles, but all of these events are only important in how they change earnings or the growth there of “Earnings”.

Let’s take a look at early statistics from 2017!

Earnings Via our Friends at Factset

This from Factset, one of our favorite data aggregators in their regular weekly report.

  • Earnings Growth: For Q1 2017, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 13.6%. If 13.6% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest (year-over-year) earnings growth for the index since Q3 2011 (16.7%).

Looking closely at the following chart, which is TRAILING earnings, forward looking capital market expectations can be seen. The trailing earnings are actually falling over the last few years, but the forward expectations as noted from the first bullet above are expected to climb more rapidly than the past six years.

5-12-17 Factset EPS change and Price

 

So just where are these revenues that are creating accelerating growth coming from?

5-12-17 Factset Geographic Rev chart

P/E or the Price to Earnings is the most blunt way to measure the valuation of capital markets. A high P/E might mean markets are overvalued and need to grow into their valuations, or a reversion to the mean reset to a lower level may be in the cards.

5-12-17 Factset 12 PE ratio V long term

From Factset’s estimates above, the current market P/E is about 22 with a normal of 16-17, undoubtedly higher than normal but certainly no guarantee of an imminent reversion down to lower levels.

If the growth estimates mentioned in the very first bullet come through in 2017, much of this froth may be taken out of the capital markets.

Either way, we have your back via our good friend diversification!

There you have it, a nice ‘Earnings Update” … We will be watching closely!

Have a great “Earnings Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

USA Employment Update and Consumer Analysis – NICE!

Consumers are the ultimate driver of an Economy, especially the US economy. By most estimates, the consumer and his/her spending makes up over 66% of the US GDP (Gross Domestic Production) a broad measure of economic health.

Here is an interesting analysis of the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) most recent monthly Employment Report … mentioned on our “Break In”  of our Friday post.

Employed Consumer

The highest, most blunt view of employment is the Unemployment rate, usually figured in % total unemployed.

At 4.4%, the unemployment rate has fallen to a rate many, including ourselves thought maybe possible via post great recession!

The little Economy Engine that could!

img_0792
Take this job and shove it

Confident enough to walk away from the job? Sure looks like it.

Said another way, individuals have enough confidence in finding a new job, they are not afraid to walk from their current one.

A new high soon?

 

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Job Opening- aka JOLTS

Brought to the attention of many by our current Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, the job opening report also known as JOLTS report is showing clear evidence of job opportunities.

This chart helps explain why workers are not afraid to walk from their current job as well (prior chart.)

Jobs are abundant!

img_0800

Total Employment to Population

Certainly the Great Recession has had lingering effects. Focusing on the move upward since 2009, one can see the line heading in the correct direction, possibly giving confidence to those above who are leaving their current job.

Bottom line, a more confident, job opportunistic consumer economy! 

img_0794

Full Circle Now- Higher Spending? Higher GDP?

Going back to our original statement, with so much tailwind for the consumer coming from the employment of the US Economy, it would not be a stretch to think higher spending is in the cards, and a better GDP!

NICE!!

Have a Great “Healthy Consumer Economy” Monday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

April 2017 Podcast Video, Financial Planning Tax Review and Earnings Update- By John Kvale

Whew, that was easy…. tax season is finally mostly over ….

We wanted to look back one last time on our personal taxes before we sunset those tax strategies for the high point of the season….

As a reminder,  we started with an Audio Podcast format for those that are unable to SEE the video or just prefer to listen to the audio… this makes the review slightly longer, but more descriptive.

Enjoy!

April 2017 Video

 

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

AMT Tax Reminder

We ran across a lot of AMT or Alternative Minimum Taxes this season

Here are the key thoughts from our detailed post on AMT earlier this month-

  • Incomes between $170k and $313k joint and singles over $100k – you are in the cross hairs of AMT
  • Deferring income may be useful
  • Accelerate income

There is not a lot of planning changes with AMT, but in this case knowledge may be power!

Possible MAJOR tax reform

Late in the month an overview of major tax reform was released.

Here is a link from the White House

Here is a link from Barron’s that does a pretty good analysis

Here is our article on the possibilities earlier this month

What to do if you overfund your 401k/retirement plan

In our overfunding 401k post here, we discuss how your 401k/retirement plan can get overfunded….. here are the main points

  • Refund the extra amount ASAP
  • Apply the extra to the new year
  • If its a super small amount, its not the end of the world

Capital Market Comments

First Double Digit Earnings growth since 2011 expected

From our friends at Factset, who do a terrific job of outlining historic and future earnings.

Earnings are the ultimate driver of capital markets!

4-27-17 SP earnings estimates - Factset

What is nice about these estimates are that historically companies have been beating the street estimates … if this continues, the actual earnings may be even better double digit growth…. time will tell and we will be watching!

Hello May!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com,

Q2 2017 Newsletter Podcast and Audio Review By John Kvale

Here are a few of the topics discussed in our new Podcast, Audio Video review.

  • David Cameron Speaks at length
  • University of Michigan Sentiment Indicators
  • Updated Price Earnings Multiple
  • Three Travel Tips to save you aggravation and time

Q2 2017 Newsletter Podcast and Video Review

 

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

March 2017 Podcast Video, Tax and Financial Planning Tips and Interest Rate/Economic Review- By John Kvale

Spring has Sprung ….

March Brings warmth to most….

March Madness and Baseball season…

March also means Tax season is here!

Not to worry we have your back

As a reminder,  we started with an Audio Podcast format for those that are unable to SEE the video or just prefer to listen to the audio… this makes the review slightly longer, but more descriptive.

Last month we created a new intro and music as well…

Enjoy!

March 2017 Video

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

Tax Tips Reminders and Savings Update

The following items can be done today and still help your 2016 taxes–

  • HSA – Health Savings Account- High Deductible Pre-Tax Savings account
  • SEP- Simplified Employee Pension- Souped Up IRA for Non-W-2 Income offset
  • IRA- Oldie but goodie- Prefer using ONLY if deductible

Costly Tax Mistakes we are seeing

In our post late this month, we highlight items we are seeing missed, resulting in extra tax costs.

  • Property Tax incorrect year – make sure you get credit in the year you pay
  • General Sales Tax missing- It’s your deduction, make darn sure you get it if you itemize
  • Missing Basis- An oldie but goodie, EVERYTHING has a basis- be sure one is included on your return
  • Missing a SEP (AKA Simplified Employee Pension) contribution – Souped up IRA that offsets non-W-2 income- Great Tax Saver- You can do both a SEP and 401k if you have both incomes under the appropriate scenario

Let us know if you have any questions, we are in full tax review mode!

FOMC Interest Rate Increase

Another Rate Increase

March also marked a month where the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)  headed by Janet Yellen and fellow members raised short term interest rates another .25%. Now at a rate .75%, slowly rates are beginning to normalize.

Overnight LIBOR (London Interbank Offering Rate) showing the Rate Increases clearly

3-31-17 Overnight Libor

 

Our friends at JPMorgan, think higher rates may help the economy, as too low of rates, in their opinion, muzzle the economy more than it helps.

jpmorgan-rates-too-low-graph

We Agree!

See you at the end of April!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com,

New Intro and Music -February 2017 Podcast Video, Financial Planning Tip and Economic Review- By John Kvale

February …. The Shortest month of the year!

A busy time of the year too….

We made the best of it, we covered a lot of ground!

Hope you like the new intro and music for our video!

As a reminder,  we started with an Audio Podcast format for those that are unable to SEE the video or just prefer to listen to the audio… this makes the review slightly longer, but more descriptive.

Enjoy!

February 2017 Video

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

Simplifying the Probate Process

Thanks to all of the fantastic comments and views  .. here is the list in brevity :20170125_200814794_ios

  • Not usually complicated- some states can be
  • Probate needed for real estate, non beneficiary titled accounts or ownership
  • Creates a Letter of Testamentary
  • Multiple or Joint Executors can complicate
  • Not all Estates have to be probated
  • Inventory of assets may be needed
  • Effectively closes the Estate

One of the most crucial items for Probate to go smoothly, is organization up front.

Age 50 Catch Up Provisions

If you turn 50 by years end, you have deeper savings available to you.

  • $6k extra for 401k and the likefiftieth-birthday
  • $1k extra for IRA/ROTH and similar types

Here is the IRS reminder statement!

Speaking of reminders, we continuously find that employers need to be reminded the year one turns 50 that you can actually add extra funds into that retirement savings program — give them a call !

Will the Euro Survive?

Marine Le Pen Win Means No

According to our experts from the Out West Meeting (the one Donald The Brain Crashed in 32 minutes) if Marine Le Pen wins the Euro will not survive. This was a cross over item, as several different experts said the same thing unknowingly.le_pen_marine-9586

April 23, 2017 is the final vote.

So why are we watching this? If Le Pen wins, this may be the final nail in the Euro coffin. Assuming all believe this, capital market uncertainty would likely bubble.

  • Brexit – Capital Market shakes 3 days
  • Unexpected US president – Capital Market shakes 3 hours
  • Euro Breakup – Capital Market shake Unknown –

Our experts acknowledged this time line and lack of concern, but cautioned on becoming over confident.

Ok, we will be watching !

See you at the end of March!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com,

Forecasts from Canadian Economist Derek Burleton … Trump Policy, US Economy, Rates, US Dollar and Oil Prices

Earlier this month at our “Out West” conference where “The Brain” crashed the party in  32 minutes, we had the opportunity to listen to famed Canadian economist, Derek Burleton.

We greatly enjoy hearing from stately folks outside the borders of the US for several reasons …

  • What exactly do people in their geographic area think of the situation?
  • Receiving differing media reports may lead to a totally different and valuable views.
  • Countries with TOTALLY different governments may have clarity that we may take for granted.

Derek Burleton Forecasts20170202_211041438_ios

Trump policies will likely not make major changes to the economy. Burleton likens economies to air craft carriers that are very hard to turn and only slightly changed by policy.

Given the above fact, in the short term, Burleton thinks the capital markets could be due for disappointment, as the markets may be pricing in too much optimism currently.

Rates will rise twice in 2017 and again in 2018. Interestingly the fed has said three times this year and recently are saying even more lately….

US Dollar and Oil are both at near term (12 month) highs.

We like the forecasts as a vote of calmness and reasonable expectations. Thanks Derek… we will be watching as this unfolds.

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com