Nouriel Roubini, a well know economist, National Bureau of Economic Research staff member, London based Center for Economic Policy Research staff member, former IMF economist, and current professor at NYU earned our stamp of “The Bad” due to his extremely bearish posture. Interestingly enough, at the CFA Institute Conference, he was much less bearish than just a few months ago. Due to his popularity it is easy to follow Mr. Roubini’s comments as they are well publicized and almost always draw headlines. We will expand on his changes momentarily, but wanted to first give you his current thoughts.
- The US Economy will come out of the recession in the first or second quarter of 2010. (We tend to be slightly more optimistic than Mr. Roubini, but slightly less optimistic that Liz Saunders, see “The Good” , prior post.)
- Deflation will be the main problem for the remainder of 2009. (Possibly, but we think stabilization may occur sooner rather than later.)
- Inflation will be our next big challenge. (We agree.)
Mr. Roubini in a conference in Switzerland in January of 2009, stated that he felt the US would be in a recession for at least the next two years, and possibly into 2012. We state this only to show his change in posture, which is certainly reasonable given new facts, but shows even Mr. Roubini’s bearish views becoming more positive. JK