Recession Over-According to NABE (National Association for Business Economics)

In a possible very untimely announcement, the NABE proclaimed the recession is over yesterday. See chart of 44 economists surveyed:

Nabe pie chart

“The NABE forecast panel declares the Great Recession of 2008-09 to be over. More than 80 percent of
respondents believe that an expansion has begun. Still, the toll of the recession has been severe, with real GDP
declining 3.8 percent from its peak-– a post-World War II record.”

The capital markets hit a bottom in March of this year, a full seven months prior to the NABE’s announcement. Remember capital markets are a forward looking mechanism, and as such ferreted out this announcement well in advance.

To us what is more interesting and important, is not the announcement, but the revisions that came with the announcement.  Keep in mind, expectations versus realities, Expectations vs. Reality.

NABE economists expect a 3% GDP growth now versus 2.7% in May, and a 3.4% Q3 09 GDP growth now, versus .7% in May.

Again the expectation was increased to be more in line with realities, which was an upward move.

Have a Good Day!


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