Iran the Powder Keg, From Two Points of View !

Sometimes we cannot see the forest due to the trees!

This saying came to mind as we have buried our heads in conference calls, economic data, government statements lately, only to have an epiphany moment twice in the last few days.

Iran’s actions, and possible reactions will have effects on the capital markets. Capital markets responses vary greatly depending on the conflict and occurences.  It is hard to determine what a major Iranian conflict may cause both market, and economically, but we felt if important to update you on the current situation, especially since it has been so prominently tossed in our lap over the last couple of days.

On Friday (1-27-12) I had the opportunity to hear Gil Elan speak at a Navy League meeting, thanks to a nice invite from a close friend and peer in the investment business.

Gil Elan

Mr. Elan, a retired Lieutenant colonel with vast experience as an Israeli combat and briefing officer, and terrific speaker, took the attending group of people through the most recent Iranian conflicts and possible outcomes of several scenarios. I was very surprised to hear just how “hot” the situation has become. While the outcome is not know, there are more negative possibilities than positive at this time. Thanks very much to Mr. Elan for the update and terrific history lesson.

Prepping for the upcoming week with my Sunday evening usual listening in the background, 60 Minutes; the headline story, an interview with Leon Panetta , US Defense secretary caught my ear. Mr. Panetta being such a jolly fellow, forces one to listen closely to his words as much of what he says is EXTREMELY pertinent and while guarded, can have nuggets of information buried within the delivery.

With Panetta and Elan both agreeing not only in the severity of the situation, but very nearly on the same time frames of actions and reactions to Iran’s nuclear program, less than a year, we thought it worth putting on all of our radar.

While this may not be a “Good Monday morning, have a great week!”  discussion, we do have a good runway of time before it appears there will be any actions, making it much easier to discuss with clarity, even if it is a Monday morning!

We will keep our eyes peeled for more details, but do understand there are sizable uncertainties when discussing the Iranian situation.

Have a Great day and Super week!



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