Given our surprise findings (76 Years of Capital Markets…) on pre- election year capital market research, which continued in form in 2011, we set off on another adventure.
In our own, overly analytical way, we wanted to find out what the historical chances for an incumbent President to be re-elected, using the history of the United States as our forecast mechanism.
Here are the facts, many of which you may not remember from your American History Classes:
- There have been 56 elections in the United States Prior to the November 2012 elections
- In total there were 25 chances for an incumbent to be re-elected. (Death, and an elective no second try, are the main reasons for not having a second term)
- In total only 8 out of 25 incumbent presidents were ousted for a 68% pass rate, including FDR’s near two decade run
- Modern day (aligning with our prior research of 76 years) there were 11 chances for an incumbent to be re-elected
- In Modern day times, only Hoover, Carter and Bush Sr were willing to go a second, but “one time” presidents, making for a 73% chance pass rate
From our perch, whether the full enchilada history of the US, or the “Modern Day” incumbent president, we call it a 70% historical chance of being re-elected!
So there you have it, the facts are what they are. As you know we are not allowed to have comments due to the compliance issues. Knowing this might be an interesting issue, we are once happy for compliance!
Have a Great Day!