Three Hits (Rates, Geithner, VIX) from the Newsletter ALREADY for 2013

With a heavy week of posting we wanted to keep this Friday light as you head into your weekend. We will keep this at a high level with greater details to come, but wanted to lightly review (brag..haha) while the events are still recent.

Three items we wanted to point out that have already had a hit in the new year from our Q 1 2013 Newsletter are as follows:

Our biggest worry, Interest Rate Misbehavior:

Interest rates took a step up after several dissenting FOMC members noted in their recently released transcript that they may be ready to “Stop the Juice” (As opposed to our prior concerns “The Juice is Loose“) …Actions: This demands careful attention and with our belief of a soggy economy especially in the first half of this year, is most likely a noise, but the stakes are high and this ranks as one of our most watched items from the past several years and will continue so moving forward.

Geithner Retirement:

Jack who? … No Jack Lew is a possible replacement for the abruptly retiring announced Timothy Geithner who is the current Treasury Secretary (lookout debt ceiling talks… Lew you are in the crosshairs):

While no secret of a possible departure, there was at least doubt that Geithner would resign this year, especially this early in the year.  Our expectation/concern was that he would, however we never imagined he would announce his departure before we could get our Newsletter to you. Whoever gets the nod, in baptism by fire notion, you better be ready as the debt ceiling negotiation is about to begin with the first deadline in mid February…..buckle up!

Tea leaves and the VIX: A CBOE report interestingly named  “What’s On Our mind”

The CBOE in almost confession like fashion, released this short report of how the VIX has never dropped so fast in such a short time. Ah ha, we told you so, this is one of the items we feel is no longer as true of a gauge as it used to be in reading the tea leafs of the markets. Again, this happened BEFORE we could get you the newsletter. Hat tip Donald “The Brain” as the bones of this article are his, only my words here.

While we have never had such a fast payoff on our previews (hard to believe these hit before we even sent the Newsletter), we hope our skeptical economic view for this year is wrong, but we are still very conservative for this year at best.

Have a super weekend!

JK

PS Hope you liked my confession article this week, it was a toughie to write and very personal but hopefully worthy of your time!