Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q4 2022 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.
Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page
Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!
Q 4 2022 Newsletter
(YouTube)
Patience – Real Slowdowns take a while to clear
Bear Markets about 20 months
Slowdowns average about 14 months
Narratives by Ben Hunt
With the news being the worst near the tail end of a slowdown, after crossing paths with Ben over five times, we thought it a great time to review some of his thoughts and research…
The Missionary Statement or Strong Direct Narrative
Ben and his partner theorized that Missionary statements once saved for Oval Office wartime speeches or the like are now used in part due to the way we consume our information by almost everyone, leading to an overload possibly of missionary or breaking news like headlines and narratives.
The possible effect of strong missionary statements or narratives, again Ben theorizes is that when there is the need for a very strong subject matter or narrative, if we are not careful we have become desensitized to things because of the possible dramatization of other headlines and narratives that it’s not taken serious. Said simply, the boy who cried wolf
“Why am I reading this, and why am I reading it now?”
Dr. Hunt mentions that they have actually had a number of news organizations and authors directly communicate with he and his partner in order to make sure or check that they are not accidentally using a narrative, which is a fantastic possible change moving forward
Peter Zeihan – Russian Ukraine Thoughts – Demographics made It Now or Never
With regards to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Peter theorizes that this is a recapture of multiple ports of invasion that Russia has given up over the past many decades. He also mentions that because of poor demographics the Russian invasion was an absolute necessity sooner rather than later due too an aging population
Interest Rate Thoughts
“The Federal Reserve led by Jerome Powell, has long wanted to get rates up to a more normalized level” For the record this has been a known goal in the halls of Wall Street and the Federal Reserve for that matter.
Peter goes on, “Seems to be a feeling from the Fed Officials, that if a recession is going to happen anyway, let’s get our toolkit back of a higher interest rates!”
Talk to you after the turn of the calendar !l!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Q1 2023 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Estate Tax Law change Heads Up …. Higher Rates for Longer from Stubborn Lagging CPI Inputs … Personal Reflection … By John Kvale CFA, CFP …
Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q1 2023 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.
Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page
Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!
Q1 2023 Newsletter
(YouTube)
Personal Reflections –
Entering the 36 year in the Financial and Capital Markets world, a lesson was learned this year (see below) we want to thank everyone for their well wishes, patience and confidence as we went through a unique “Changing of the Tiger Stripes” event this year!
Higher Rates – Longer – CPI Stubbornly High
CPI Causes Tiger Stripes to Change?
Very Lagging Rent and Shelter Numbers keep pushing CPI
Estate Tax Laws Set to Change – Heads Up
At the end of 2025, putting January 1, 2026 into play, without any tax law adjustments the Estate Tax level will adjust back down to somewhere between a $7 to $8 million or $14 to $16 million for couples level.
While Estate Tax is not a huge revenue earner for the IRS, in our opinion Estate tax is in purpose is to affect the very largest of the states think $100 million and up.
Additionally the IRS is having trouble completing regular federal tax returns, by some estimates some 15 to 20 thousand taxpayers are still waiting on their regular federal returns to be blessed by the IRS from 2020 to present. Lowering the Estate Tax level to an extreme low, while may sound good in the headlines, impracticality, it will likely create a huge bottleneck and more trouble than money earned.
Bottom Line – We are on this in advance!
Happy New Years and a Great Start to 2023!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
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Posted in Economy, FOMC, General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, John Kvale, Market Comments, Newsletters, Personal, Podcast, Retirement Planning, Tax Related, Video
Tagged CPI, Estate Tax, Interest Rates, Newsletter, Personal Reflections