If you followed our writings for any length of time at all you notice a clear absence of political discussions!
We’ve had multiple visits on market reactions and wanted to clarify here publicly, without political comments of course.
Possible Market Reactions to Differing Election Outcomes
What follows is a carefully written, candid explanation of what we think the Capital Markets may do under several scenarios.
Insert your own probabilities of outcomes so that you may have an expectation of how Markets MAY react.
In order of our estimates of most disruptive to least disruptive:
Hanging Chads – No one is elected and a lengthy battle ensues – In our minds, most Market disruptive – Participants dislike uncertainty
Clean Sweep Either Direction – This may surprise you, but participants generally favor a partial party political holding
Partial Party Holding = Inferred from the points above – Partial party holding in either direction is likely least market disruptive
There you have it, maybe some surprises …. but our thoughts on possible market reactions … no guarantees of course, but in fielding a few questions, we thought others may like to hear as well!
Have a Great “Elections Market Movement” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth