10 Year Treasury Rate ALERT … Not Alarm

We have mentioned interest rates probably more than you would like, but rates are so critical at this moment in time.

10 Year Treasury Yield Alert

The rate of the US 10 year treasury has fallen decidedly below our voodoo trend line.

Here are a few possibilities in order of fear with our possible probabilities .

1. We are going into a recession (Very Scary but only a 10% chance from our perch)
2. There is a shortage of supply due to the Fed’s QE purchases (20%)
3. Mario Draghi’s latest comments on EU QE purchases are chasing investors here (10%)
4. Pension/Institutional/Big investors are shifting to fixed income (10%)
5. Russia Ukraine fears are pushing our rates down (10%)
6. Something we do not know yet (40%)

We want to alert you to this, but not alarm. We are on VERY careful watch.

Have a Great Day!

John Kvale CFA, CFP