Category Archives: Interest Rates

All Eyes on the Federal Reserve – Will they LOWER (yes you read that correctly) Rates? Audio from Local Fed President, Robert Kaplan, on how the decision is made!

Ok…so the Social Security event forced us to pull together new audio equipment – we never knew how quickly we would utilize these new tools for events such as what follows – We hope you enjoy these pertinent comments directly from the horses mouth!

Unthinkable just a few quarters ago…. Market Participants are thinking there may be a FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) LOWERING of rates – yep lowering!

This week the FOMC will announce their decision, based on many factors as you will hear from the attached audio – what makes this weeks meeting special is the slight expectation of a lowering of rates and this meeting includes the FOMC estimates of the economy and an interview with chief Jerome Powell post announcement –

Now – what they are looking at to make the decision!

At our recent CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) sponsored event, we were fortunate enough to have an hour with Robert Kaplan, Dallas Federal Reserve President. We were also fortunate enough to get audio of the event…

What the Fed Watches to make rate decisions20190528_170905120_iOS

According to Robert Kaplan, Audio below, he along with his fellow FOMC chiefs watch the following, just to name a few items:

Cyclical Factors – Short Term Indicators – Less important to Kaplan – I.e. CPI, Earnings, Interest Rates, Employment rates – basically all the items we read on a daily basis or are bombarded with in “Breaking News! Like format – Interestingly and very correctly from our perch, Kaplan is not a big advocate of placing much weight on these factors – see next as he mostly ignores the short term noise – Wisely in our opinion – see audio below

Structural Factors – Longer Term Trends – MORE important to Kaplan and becoming more important to the entire FOMC board due to his repeated review – I.e. Population growth/demographics, Government Debt, Corporate Debt, TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION (huge importance), World Growth – Again, totally agree – see audio below

Individual Company Response – Kaplan talks to over 30 large and small company CEO’s monthly along with continued in- person visits with companies to help determine, just what the economy is doing along with longer term Structural disrupting factors – see audio below

Group Input – With multiple chiefs from a dozen districts bringing their collective input to the table, a theme hopefully develops!

Here is the Audio in different formats for different devices – with three different types we hope at least one works on your device!

MP3:

Wave File:

OGG File:

Our Thoughts

Our bet is no lowering of rates, which may be met with disappointment (lower markets)!

Have a Great “FED Decision Week” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

May 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our May 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

Newbies – We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

May – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Why Reading the Fine Print is Still Important

img_2797

Here in this post we discussed the need to keep an eye out for tricksters as the still find their ways into our lives…. this post was created after stumbling on to an offer of 99% annul charges on what looked like a request for a donation to a charity… can’t make this up.. even took the blurry (bad photographer) picture for proof…

 

Sharpening the Saw – Personal Income Tax Bracket Review

In our Sharpening the Saw post here, we posted from a local conference we were attending and grabbed our favorite Tax Chart as a reminder of the new tax law changes.

This chart, which is also making an appearance in the Q 3 Newsletter is a great review/update on the new tax brackets, especially those who are retired:

Tax Bracket Chart

 

Capital Market Comments –

Yield Curve Inversion is back, as we had a brief few days in March, but as of the end of May we had a much more distinct inversion with the 10 year at 2.15% and the 90 day near 2.40%-

The following chart is from our own trading system and is the 10 year yield less the 19 week yield or the equivalent 90 day yield… the black line marks the zero point – anything below the zero is inversion !

6-2-19 10 year versus 13 weeks Rate - Thinkpipes

It’s inverted now for sure…. Again, LOT’s more to come!

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of June!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Inverted Yield Curve Update – Break In: Chance Visit with Robert Kaplan, Dallas Federal Reserve Chair

Break In:

After scheduling this post about 24 hours before now, yesterday an almost all day meeting with the local CFA (Chartered Financial Analysts) organization, a local deep level investment organization that found yours truly as President once upon a time, featured the key note lunch speaker of none other than … Robert Kaplan, the current Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman…

kaplan-lb

There is not a Federal Reserve Member, much less a president that does not have the Economy, interest rates, and notice of the inverted yield curve on his mind… His hour lecture was recorded… using one of the neat handy recorders from our Social Security event…. unfortunately at the time of this writing, the darn recorder would not be friendly with the laptop and share the speech….grrrr

Look for more in our coming Newsletter … and eventually the recorded conversation here … fingers crossed!

Now back to the original post!

It has been a while since we discussed the Yield curve and the inversion there of…

Look for a more detailed article in the coming Newsletter, but for now, the yield curve has inverted again, but this time with greater spread!

As a quick reminder, an inverted yield curve is when longer term rates are lower than shorter, an unusual situation as generally the longer the term the higher the rate so as to adjust/compensate for risk…

Our favorite term and the most useful in our minds is the ten year versus the 90 day yield…

Currently the 90 day treasury is yielding about 2.35% and the 10 year treasury is yielding 2.23% – yep, that’s inverted ….

Chart from St. Louis Federal Reserve

5-28-19 the 90 v 10 year

It is hard to see in this chart, and granted, it is a small inversion compared to recent times, but we are inverted and have been for the second week since mid-March, when we first inverted for five days….

Again, more in the coming Newsletter, but we are watching closely!

Have a Great “Inverted Yield Curve Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Q 1 2019 Report Cover

 

No one really knows for sure!

Just like we weren’t certain what caused a hissy fit the last quarter of 2018, no one really knows for sure why everyone became so happy this quarter. Needless to say, we think this is a more normal reaction and possibly a reversion to the mean from the hissy fit.

As mentioned in our Q2 2019 Newsletter, capital markets could have been protesting higher interest rates – or as mentioned in one of our most read posts at Street-cents.com, it could have just been that it was amateur hour and movement during a Gentleman’s agreement no movement time was exaggerated. No matter the reason, capital markets have a happier face.

Inverted yield curve

Just as we pushed the Q2 Newsletter off to the presses, the yield curve did officially invert – as a reminder, yield curve inversion is when short term interest rates are higher than long term rates, which occurred in the last five days of the quarter. The reason we, as well as many other in the industry crow about this unique situation, is it has been a precursor to recessions with great accuracy.  Before taking shelter and hiding under the covers, this precursor has no accuracy on the depth, and very little accuracy on the timing of a recession.  In some instances a recession occurred two years after the inversion.

Recession Definition

As mentioned again in our Q2 Newsletter, the definition of a recession is two consecutive negative gross domestic production – GDP prints – yes that could be – .01% and -.01% making for a mini-mi recession, but still a recession. No matter, just as you can’t be partially sick or partially have an accident the inverted yield curve did occur. As such we will be monitoring the situation very carefully and remembering that now, is not the time to be taking extra risk.

Interest Rates

Given the yield curve inverted, no steep inflation signals are occurring, and the economy is growing, but not red hot, it is likely we have seen the highest short term rates for a while. Fed officials seem very comfortable at the current level. As more data is recorded, things can change.

We will talk to you again in the summer, have a great day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

 

Q 2 2019 Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 2 2019 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click Here for direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going!

 Q 2 2019 Newsletter

And here is your review!

Capital Market Talk

Recession and the Inverted Yield Curve

Ask any long distant runner what happens when they start out too fast and they will tell you it is not good new – The saying goes for every minute you go out too fast, you come back two minutes slower than normal…

In our main capital market article we discuss the reasons why we may have a recession by definition, but why it may not be a big deal (hopefully).

The Inverted Yield Curve (Short term interest rates higher than long term rates) and infrequent event, did occur for five days – so far – just after our Newsletter went to the publisher. The Inversion has been a good signal of recession, EVENTUALLY – some times as long as two years in advance.

They Don’t Want Your old 401k

A recent Cerulli study finds that once you leave the company, most really do not want your funds anymore. We have long suspected this.

  1. Frequently a short wait time turns into a long wait time with a different and much more general help line.
  2. Forms may be much more difficult to acquire.
  3. Paper work received, saying take it or we will distribute it and you will have taxes and penalties.
  4. Rolling over into an account that is TERRIBLY hard to get out and has hurdles to jump through, high monthly service charges as well as limited investments, if any.
  5. A general feel of everything is hard to do, once again explaining the Cerulli study results.

Are a few items we have run into over the years!

Iron Clad Trustee

General order of Trustee or other important people to execute your wishes when you are incapacitated or deceased, generally go like this:

  • Spouse
  • Sibling
  • CLOSE friend
  • Similar Aged Relative
  • Grown Children

As we can all imagine, this list can easily be very short and insufficient.

In our deep dive of the Institutional Trustee Services, we discuss the handiness of having such a great service as well as the ability to offer these services ourselves.

Choose Your Beneficiaries Carefully

In this article that fit nicely with our Trustee article we mention different types of Beneficiaries and most importantly. Make sure you confirm that your beneficiaries are correct as this will over ride you other documents, including a Will or Trust.

We hope you enjoy … talk to you in the Summer!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

March 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Break in Reminder for our Social Security Event

Saturday April 27th at 10 am and Dallas Athletic Club

 

Hello and Welcome to our March 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

Newbies – We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

March – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

IRS Dirty Dozenburglar-308858__480

Each year the IRS publishes their top dozen tax scams, here in our post we cover all dirty dozen tax scams to be aware.

Our top three are their first three-

  • Phishing
  • Phone Scams
  • Identity Theft

Which are the ones we see most frequently!

For the record, we have seen way less this year than in years past!

Choose Beneficiaries Carefully Part IIbeneficiary - 42001392872_ddd235968d_m

Here in our Part II beneficiary post, we discuss the two most common types of designations you will likely see on Beneficiary paperwork, Per Stirpes (flows to heirs, irregardless of survivors) and ProRata (funds only to survivors) and once again as a reminder that Beneficiary language will over ride Wills and other types of Estate Planning documents – choose carefully!

Capital Market Comments –

Inverted Yield CurveFOMC Lowers Rates and buys longer to lower

Here we spoke of the three hour inverted yield curve in a Break In abbreviated post. As an update, the yield curve has been inverted most of this week, making is a TRUE inversion.

We will have a detailed review soon, but again the importance of this event is the recession signaling prowess.

All recessions are not equal, and we highly suspect the next one will be a shallow one, but our radars are up.

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of March!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Why We don’t like to Move Money on Fridays – Break In – Inverted Yield Curve Update

Break In – On Friday the Yield Curve Inverted for about three hours – we have spoken at length on this subject, but want a little more time to see market participants reactions as well as Fed officials before making a current update.

As a reminder the Inversion of the Yield Curve has a strong recessionary signal some time in the future, frequently years in advance –

Friday’s inversion triggered a series of sell programs that clearly did not do their homework on the possible eventual timing of a recession.

With a Newsletter already in print – coincidentally we had much talk about recessions, and even a definition. The two hour inversion did mess our Newsletter up a bit as until Friday it had not inverted – we will update you more with clarity soon!

Back to our regularly scheduled program/post…

Why we don’t like to Move Money on Fridaysfriday-1270362__480

As a weekend nears, specifically Friday … many’s favorite day of the week, we tend to dislike the movement of funds.

The reason is two fold:

  1. If something goes wrong, the weekend can be/seems long to determine a correction
  2. Skeleton crews frequently man the ship on Friday’s- especially during the summer

Our absolute least favorite movement of funds is sending to all new instructions on a Friday – we rarely do this – and never do before a long/holiday weekend!

There are of course times that money just HAS to move on a Friday, such as the closing of a home (in an abundance of caution, we frequently send funds on Thursday) or a last minute quick fill up of cash.

Regularly scheduled deposits are fine as the calendar determines this and being on such a regimented event, trouble is less likely.

Deposits or draws as we like to call them are a different story. When we are pulling funds from another account, we see the flow of funds from our end and can easily Shepard/see problems.

In a safe over sorry posture, look for us to recommend Thursday or our favorite day, Monday, for the movement of unscheduled funds.

Have a Great “No Friday Money Movement” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents