Category Archives: Interest Rates

Interesting comments from CEO of Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trust

Each year we are kindly invited to a terrific event of publicly traded companies by our friends at Three Part Advisors.

This year the event featured over 70 companies, mostly of smaller capitalization. We enjoy going to this event as a terrific way to really get into the weeds on what is going on in the Economy as well as learn more about the companies themselves.

Chance meeting and lunch Dynex CEO

One of the favorite sessions featured the CEO and Chairman Byron Boston. Luckily, after his discussion, we sat together at the same table for lunch … extending thoughts and comments from his public discussion.person-boston

As chairman of a publicly traded Mortgage REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) Mr. Boston had/has (rates greatly affect his company) very strong opinions on rates among other things.   Of course our ears perked up when Mr. Boston gave his views and even some forecasts …

  • Rates will be lower longer this cycle
  • Highest rates of his lifetime (Wow- big statement) are in last 15 years
  • Global growth is coming, but more fragile than many think
  • Inflation will not get above 2%
  • Globalization has created an irreversible connectedness between our economy and the rest of the world (We could not agree more!)
  • If inflation goes over 2%, rates will go higher as well- I asked the question, but he did not think inflation would get over 2%

At lunch we had more candid hot topic conversations beyond my comfort zone of our blog.

We were VERY impressed with Mr. Boston. He gave his distinct thoughts with triggers for being wrong and right for that matter …. what is not to like!

We will code this forecast and check back again later to see how well Mr. Boston did !

Have a Great “More Rate Clarity” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

October 2017 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update- By John Kvale

Here is our October 2017 Monthly review. If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format.

Enjoy!

October 2017 Video

Break In – D Magazine Honors – Best Wealth Managers

We are super happy to be honored in D Magazines Best Financial Planner and Wealth Managers Award !!

Thanks so much and congratulations to our fellow recipients.

9-27-17 FINAL DMAG Spread

11th Consecutive Honor – John Kvale Best Individual Financial Planner

The 11th consecutive D Magazine best Financial Planner award was also in this edition and we are super happy to announce, John received his 11th consecutive nomination!DmagLogo

Wow and again thanks to our fellow recipients!

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

Social Security Increase

Don’t smirk at 2%, every penny counts! With a CPI (Consumer Price Index) increase of 2% year over year, the Social Security Administration passed the good news on earlier this month. Take that 2% increase and run!

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Capital Market Comments

Rates are Slowly Ticking Up

After much silence on interest rates, we have taken notice of recent movement as the global economy begins to pick up steam … Overseas seems to really be getting their act together.

10-24-17 10 Year Treasury

Consumer Sentiment Also Higher

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment hit a post “Great Recession” high this month.

With two thirds of our US Economy being based on consumer consumption, this bodes well for the Economy.

10-13-17 Consumer Sentiment

See you at the end of November, which also features our very special Blooper Thanksgiving Video from a few years ago!

Happy Fall Season!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Timely discussion of Rates this week … Friday … Travels on the Horizon …

Our Hmmm interest Rate post on Wednesday of this week turned out to be a bit prophetic as Wall Street Turned their “Short Term” eyes toward rates and raised a brow.

JPMorgan Rate Chart

While rates MAY eventually provide a headwind to capital markets, we agree with our friends at JPMorgan and their excellent chart showing MUCH higher levels of rates will be a formidable headwind.

jpmorgan-rates-too-low-graphAhhh… Today is a Friday, and travels are on the horizon next week, but that is next week… Enjoy your Friday, your weekend, and time with those special!

Have a Great Friday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

Hmmm … Rates are slowly rising … A good thing!

We have long crowed that low rates were great to get us out of the great recession of 07-09, however they have caused more harm than good by being too low for so long.

Rates are Creeping Up

Higher interest rates can be a function of inflation, growth or expansion. These are missing components of our post great recession recovery.

But Wait!

10-24-17 10 Year Treasury

Yes, we have been here before, let’s keep an eye on this most recent move, as you can tell from the chart, a move above the current level may mean higher again!

Have a great, sneaky higher rate day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Social Security Raise in 2018 is 2% NICE!

The Social Security Administration announced late last week the COLA (Cost of living adjustment) based not he CPI, Consumer Price Index (see graph below) would be a 2% increase.

Here is a great fact sheet link

Three Important Numbers

2% – The increase in ALL Social Security benefits for 2018

$128,700 – The phase out level of Social Security withholdings – Medicare 3% does not phase out anymore

$17,040 – The maximum amount of employment related income you can earn AND draw Social Security early without facing a dollar for dollar tax above this amount

The CPI – Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) (to be exact, it is the CPI-W for clerical workers and wage earners- it looks exactly the same) is the basic index living adjustments for Social Security (and many other instruments) are used.

img_0937

As you can see the line is generally up, but there are years that no adjustment is made!

Happy 2% raise next year!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com

Q 4 2017 Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 4 2017 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click here for direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going!

Q 4 2017 Newsletter

International Market Analysis

In a quest for value, it may be appearing overseas with our friends across the pond. Our core article of the newsletter discusses P/E Price Earnings along with the more smoothed CAPE or cyclically adjusted price earnings which is just a 10 year average ratio. With multiple looks at a long awaited possible long term positive trend, the next 3-5 years may be in the corner of  our overseas friends.

Tripit our App of the Quarter

After stumbling upon a neat app from a dear friend, “Tripit” makes our app of the quarter. Bet you have no idea just how many different reward programs you are involved … after loading them into our app of the quarter, your life will be easier.  Constant price reviews after the purchase along with multiple handy reminders may make this a fun – non financial review and item for you to try out this quarter.

Equifax Update and To Do’s

Our most popular posts on street-cents.com our blog, was the discussion of the Equifax breach. Our theme “Chillax” if our information had not been comprised before, it will eventually. The best defense in this case is an offensive preparation, BEFORE the next breach.

Break In: Yahoo announce after our discussion much more information had been compromised than originally thought …

Not IF, but WHEN our information is compromised …

1 Minute Video Reviews and Screen Shots

With tons of fun and compliments, our half dozen set of 1 minute video’s also make the Newsletter. If you like to talk like I do, full appreciation for just how hard it is to make a 1 Minute video… haha

Here is a link to our 1 Minute Video Page on our Website

Here is a link to all the Videos here on our blog

Parting Thoughts

Shhhh, we have a secret that we want to tell, but are forbidden for a couple of more weeks. We will only say it is an honor!

Watch for a reminder of our hopefully awesome Saturday Before Thanksgiving-Early November 18 Holiday Party at the Dallas Arboretum from 1-3 pm and free reign of the park until 5! Fun times !!!

Thanks for the time!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Yellen speaks, Fed Balance Sheet Unwind Preview – Friday

FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) chair Janet Yellen laid out their plans for the reduction in the balance sheet. We spoke of this earlier here in this post.

Here is an updated graph from the Federal Reserve

9-28-17 Fed Balance SheetWe will discuss in great detail soon the interesting, slow tightening compared to all the historical adjustments that have been made before. This time it really is different, at least now, notably slower!

Today is the last day of the quarter, which means a monthly review and our Quarterly Newsletter coming soon … both with Podcast Videos now !!

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com