Category Archives: Interest Rates

Interesting Interest Rates Chart a Historical View and a Super Short Term View with Noted Movement

We spotted this neat chart last week from our friends once again at Visual Capitalist … here

Worth noting … we were close to these levels in 1945 as can be seen on the chart…

While the above is a more descriptive 200 year chart, we just could not help ourselves in showing a much shorter but encouraging one month chart of the same ten year treasury noted above …. again, VERY short time frame, but we like the upward movement….

We crow a lot about interest rates, but they really are VERY important…

Have a Great “Interest Rate Movement” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Q 4 2020 Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review of Year Events, Cause and Effects By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 4 2020 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click here for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Unlike the last two Newsletters which had very little economic and market related comments, this one is all about where we have been, what has occurred and where we may be going!

J.K. Financial q 4 2020 newsletter

Let’s get going!

Thanks in advance!

Q 4 2020 Newsletter

(YouTube)

As the spread of the Covid Virus occurred, Capital Market Participants in true anticipation form, voted with their feet and sold assets across the board well ahead of the eventual lock downs.

The largely followed S&P 500 (Larger US Companies) fell over 33% along with major international markets such as the German Dax falling over 35% and US Small companies represented by the Russell 2000, falling over 40%.

The most startling item of the drop was the speed at which this drop occurred, 27 days!

Ignoring the speed of these most recent declines is a bad idea as we need only look earlier in 2018 to see ANOTHER very fast drop.

The FOMC Steps In – Lowers Rates

By Mid-March as Capital Markets continued their descent, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell, dropped the hammer on interest rates by a full 1% to zero. During normal times, .25% is the usual adjustment as can be seen by the late 2019 and early 2020, non-crisis adjustments.

FOMC Adds More Fuel

Correctly using the financial crisis of 07-09 as the play book, the FOMC took the bazooka out, and starting buying assets to flood the markets with liquidity.  The current bazooka is much bigger (about 3 X) this time as can be seen by the difference in balance sheet increase of $1 Trillion in 07-09 versus the $ 3 Trillion and counting increase currently.

It Worked (Maybe Too Well), Capital Markets Took Notice

You know us to be very positive – all through the many negatives that have occurred !

You also know we will call it like we see it!

Markets have officially gone too far and are ahead of themselves, expect bumps and no extra risk taking is warranted at this time – CAREFUL!

We hope you enjoy … talk to you Next Year – 2021 !!!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

September 2020 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale …

Hello and Welcome to our September 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

September Video

(YouTube)

September Review By John Kvale

Financial Planning Tip  –

Markets Gone Too Far

In a luckily timed post here in our August review and again here in September we mentioned that markets had gotten far enough ahead of themselves, we had to waive the white caution flag…

Oddly, within days of our original white waiver, markets slipped … always rather be lucky than good – markets breathed caution in the air quickly with a sharp 10% correction — Safety is still advised!

Capital Market Comments

Inflation & The FOMC

In a somewhat preliminary discussion on what might change market sentiment, not knowing it had already adjusted a bit, here , here , here we discussed inflation measures, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and their views along with our personal favorite inflation measure, Dallas Federal Reserves own Trimmed Mean inflation gauge.

Have a Great September Update!

Talk to you at the end of October!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

The Fed, Economics, Interest Rates and Interest Rates Review Part 2 What would force the FEDs hand?

Well covered in Part 1, here, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and Capital Markets also believe currently that interest rates will stay low for longer …. maybe we are hopeful they are both wrong (No maybe, we are!) but there is one word that we know the FOMC cannot allow to get out of control …

Inflation !

With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent.

From FOMC statement September 16, 2020

Here is a great post from earlier on Dallas Fed calculated Trimmed Mean Inflation Measure, the FOMC’s favorite!

Triple the Bazooka – Who Let the Money Out!

During the 07-09 Great Financial Crisis, the FOMC then lead by Ben Bernanke, used the Feds balance sheet to purchase assets in order to lower rates, increase asset prices and calm markets….

This was unprecedented at the time….. Not today!

The current Bazooka is three times more ALREADY and will most certainly continue to grow in size and stimulus !

What if eventually the economy takes hold, and springs back to life –

Here is the traditional measure of inflation, Consumer Price Index from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) – again we like the afore mentioned Trimmed Mean and so does the FOMC!

Not to worry, we will be watching that 2ish % level closely…..

Inflation may occur, forcing the Feds hand at higher rates — time will tell!

Have a Great “FOMC and Interest Rates Part 2 Conclusion” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

The Fed, Economics, Interest Rates and Interest Rates Review Part 1

On Friday, we gave you a preview of this post and in completing it over the weekend, it became a bit longer than expected, so we are doing a two part series.

Some of this is also in our coming Newsletter, but with more turf here, we can dig a little deeper, especially in a two part series…

Mid week last week the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell and company released their estimates of where interest rates will be over the next several years.

This chart, known as the Fed Dot Plot, represents a dot for each voting member …. looks like there is a ton of group think going on as everyone is pretty much in agreement on the near term view and with a variance of only one percent in the longer term view – far right (One vote at 2% and two at 3%)

This chart from our Friends at JPMorgan includes not only the FOMC estimates but what the Capital Markets are assuming – (This estimates comes from the Futures Market and is easily ascertained)

Market estimates can and do change quickly.

Here is a blow up of the far right portion of the graph – Orange is market expectations again from the futures market and Purple is long run assumptions.

So markets think that rates will stay low and the FOMC also agrees.

Is there any reason that the FOMC would HAVE to raise rates?

Yep, one word ….

Inflation!

In Part 2 we will discuss …

Have a Great “FOMC and Interest Rates” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

FOMC Speaks, Preview Analysis – Newsletter Update – Friday …

On Wednesday September 16, 2020 the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell announce their updated thoughts on the Economy and their expectations….

FOMC Preview of Rates and Economic Data

Knowing its a Friday, we are making this a Preview of a more detailed article coming next week…

Here is the FOMC expectations of where rates will be for the next few years… aka Fed Dot Plot

Lower for longer is THEIR expectations…. but there is an inflation assumption embedded here….. hmmmm

Newsletter Update – Speaks to Rates and Inflation

We speak on this very subject in our coming Newsletter – which once again is different from what we have done before….

The coming Newsletter is a review of what has happened over the year so far and actions and assumptions similar to above and what the ramifications of these decisions may be looking forward…

Given the thematic review, this Newsletter is one big flowing review and analysis…

We think you will like it!

Friday

Ahhhh…. today is a Friday heading into a much excitable College Tennis Tournament for the 15 year old in Aggie land… fingers crossed….

Enjoy your day, your weekend, and your time with friends, family and those special in your life!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Meet the Trimmed Mean Inflation Gauge … A Measure to Keep Watch

With the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell and company at their most recent meeting, made the following comments:

On price stability, the FOMC adjusted its strategy for achieving its longer-run inflation goal of 2 percent by noting that it “seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time.” To this end, the revised statement states that “following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.”

The updates to the strategy statement explicitly acknowledge the challenges for monetary policy posed by a persistently low interest rate environment. Here in the United States and around the world, monetary policy interest rates are more likely to be constrained by their effective lower-bound than in the past.

Let’s Decipher these Comments and Bring On the Tracking

The comments above, were understood by many/most on Wall Street to mean rates will be allowed to stay lower for longer and the 2% inflation rate is not a hard line number….

The following is the Trimmed Mean Inflation Rate completed by our very own Dallas Federal Reserve, just down the street from us!

It is basically taking the far outliers in any report out and calculating the number. This rate is one of the most watched inflation numbers by the FOMC!

Here are the actual numbers- watch that 2% number!

When rates go up, it is a headwind for Capital Markets …

Let’s keep a watchful eye on this… we are tracking you Mr. Trimmed Mean.

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Deep Dive on Interest Rates and Yield Curves … With Helpful Comments … New Fancy Fonts and Colors

Alright, if the title did not scare you off… hope not, we wanted to review the current state of interest rates, with some helpful (in our humble opinion IMHO) comments !

Here we go!

Deep Dive on Interest Rates

First up the US 1 Year Treasury

Think of this as your checking account interest with a little extra earnings … hence the one year time frame.

Seems long ago with all the worlds events, but not too long ago we were in the mid 2% range, currently at .12% ….

Many say we will be in this lower range for a long time, short sighted in our minds, but time will tell!

Next up the US 10 Year Treasury

Think of this as our proxy for mortgage rates, long term inflation and general economic growth expectations.

Not so long ago, in the mid 2% zone looking like we were headed to 3% … today .64%.

Many of the same folks saying we will be here for a long time. We will see!

10 Year Treasury Versus 90 Day Treasury – The Recession Predictor

Not sure if it was luck or just prophetic markets, but when this chart drops below zero (AKA Yield curve inverts) frequently a slowdown comes !

Inversion much of 2019 and then again during the early stages of the lock down.

Take special note of the spike in late March… recall that was when investors tossed their “safe” fixed income investments out the door because they had not other assets they wanted to sell … after the initial spike, normalcy returned.

US versus UK One Year Rates

Thought this was very interesting ….

This most recent interest rate cycle was shallow compared to historical norms, notice how the UK rates were even more shallow.

Many other countries could be inserted here as well with the same result

There you have it, a deep dive on domestic interest rates, yield curves and international comparisons….

Last Friday a new “Block Editor” was forced upon us … think of it as a makeover for all publishing/editing tools on our blog – initially HATED it….but upon further review we are getting used to it and hope you like some of the new fancy features – Like the Big A to start the post!

Have a Great “Deep Dive Interest Rates” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

June 2020 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale … From the Road

Hello and Welcome to our June 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

June – 2020 Video (YouTube)

 

Financial Planning Tip  –

The Virtual Pivot

Oddly, this heading is the same from last month, but has a different meaning…

Here in this post we discussed how many folks are really enjoying working remotely….

In fact, the mentioned study showed that 98% of folks wanted at least some remote time moving forward…now that’s an incredible Pivot!

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In the future, likely some blending of remote and office…. nothing ever will replace face to face, but a nice blend may cut down on away from family and travel expenses…time will tell.

TSA Throughput Statistics

Over a weekend of surfing stumbling onto the TSA Throughput numbers an idea of sharing via graphic form was posted here in this post.

We even created this neat graph…

6-11-20 TSA Throughput 2020 v 2019

Good thing we did a review of this as the creation spreadsheet made its way to the recycle bend…not any more… it’s safely back now…

Looking forward to reviewing this again in the future to see if this continues?

Capital Market Comments

The Look Through Continues – Expect Bumps

Global markets continue to claw their way back, as investors look through the earnings drop and lowered interest rates help create a tailwind.

Recently, global markets took a few steps back when increases in cases occurred…. this makes sense.

Global markets are likely ahead of themselves….. time will tell, as mentioned in our Newsletter, there is a lot of horsepower aimed at fixing the situation in Unity!

Expect bumps, and headline shocks, both positive and negative … but that’s why we are happily conservative investors at heart!

6-30-20 World Indexes YTD 2020

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of July!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

A Little Overzealous …. Friday …

So yesterday there was a lot of red (dropping in value) on many of financial professionals and likely your electronic apparatus with regards to Capital Markets…

What’s Up?

A Little Overzealous …

As you know, we are a very “Glass Half Full” firm and individuals as a whole…

But Hang on just a second  … it makes no sense to rally all the way back to almost where we were before Covid 19 became an issue….

Do we think there will be a vaccine? Yes… Newsletter expands in great detail…

Do we think investors should look over the valley and to the greener pastures on the other side? Yes… and they are….

Do we think Capital Markets are ready to be where they where before all of this with the uncertainty of looking through the Valley? Not yet … a lot of uncertainty still…

Yesterday… Capital Market Participants agreed…

6-11-20 Indexes

A dose of reality may have sunk in as the FOMC announced they expected slower growth for the next two years and as such lower interest rates….

Or maybe, some awakened to the fact of where we were …  and where we are now… and said “Wait a Minute!”

All part of the process…. in due time this will all seem like a faded memory… not yet!

Expect ups and downs along the way!

Have a Great “Back to Reality” Friday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents