Ok…so the Social Security event forced us to pull together new audio equipment – we never knew how quickly we would utilize these new tools for events such as what follows – We hope you enjoy these pertinent comments directly from the horses mouth!
Unthinkable just a few quarters ago…. Market Participants are thinking there may be a FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) LOWERING of rates – yep lowering!
This week the FOMC will announce their decision, based on many factors as you will hear from the attached audio – what makes this weeks meeting special is the slight expectation of a lowering of rates and this meeting includes the FOMC estimates of the economy and an interview with chief Jerome Powell post announcement –
Now – what they are looking at to make the decision!
At our recent CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) sponsored event, we were fortunate enough to have an hour with Robert Kaplan, Dallas Federal Reserve President. We were also fortunate enough to get audio of the event…
What the Fed Watches to make rate decisions
According to Robert Kaplan, Audio below, he along with his fellow FOMC chiefs watch the following, just to name a few items:
Cyclical Factors – Short Term Indicators – Less important to Kaplan – I.e. CPI, Earnings, Interest Rates, Employment rates – basically all the items we read on a daily basis or are bombarded with in “Breaking News! Like format – Interestingly and very correctly from our perch, Kaplan is not a big advocate of placing much weight on these factors – see next as he mostly ignores the short term noise – Wisely in our opinion – see audio below
Structural Factors – Longer Term Trends – MORE important to Kaplan and becoming more important to the entire FOMC board due to his repeated review – I.e. Population growth/demographics, Government Debt, Corporate Debt, TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION (huge importance), World Growth – Again, totally agree – see audio below
Individual Company Response – Kaplan talks to over 30 large and small company CEO’s monthly along with continued in- person visits with companies to help determine, just what the economy is doing along with longer term Structural disrupting factors – see audio below
Group Input – With multiple chiefs from a dozen districts bringing their collective input to the table, a theme hopefully develops!
Here is the Audio in different formats for different devices – with three different types we hope at least one works on your device!
MP3:
Wave File:
OGG File:
Our Thoughts
Our bet is no lowering of rates, which may be met with disappointment (lower markets)!
Have a Great “FED Decision Week” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
May 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale
Hello and Welcome to our May 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!
If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!
Newbies – We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!
May – 2019 Video
Financial Planning Tip (s) –
Why Reading the Fine Print is Still Important
Here in this post we discussed the need to keep an eye out for tricksters as the still find their ways into our lives…. this post was created after stumbling on to an offer of 99% annul charges on what looked like a request for a donation to a charity… can’t make this up.. even took the blurry (bad photographer) picture for proof…
Sharpening the Saw – Personal Income Tax Bracket Review
In our Sharpening the Saw post here, we posted from a local conference we were attending and grabbed our favorite Tax Chart as a reminder of the new tax law changes.
This chart, which is also making an appearance in the Q 3 Newsletter is a great review/update on the new tax brackets, especially those who are retired:
Capital Market Comments –
Yield Curve Inversion is back, as we had a brief few days in March, but as of the end of May we had a much more distinct inversion with the 10 year at 2.15% and the 90 day near 2.40%-
The following chart is from our own trading system and is the 10 year yield less the 19 week yield or the equivalent 90 day yield… the black line marks the zero point – anything below the zero is inversion !
It’s inverted now for sure…. Again, LOT’s more to come!
Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of June!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents
Share this:
Like this:
Leave a comment
Posted in Economy, Education, General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Monthly Review, Podcast, Retirement Planning, Video
Tagged Fine Print, Retirement Planning, Retirement Tax Bracket, Tax Bracket