Category Archives: Interest Rates

November 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our November 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

November – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Email is the New Physical Address – Harder to Change

With email replacing our home address in importance, its not a surprise and only a mild inconvenience (due to the safety) to have to get a signed form in order to change our address.icons-157872__480 email address

In our descriptive post on the subject, we also predict eventually we will all likely be forced to transact most of our business in a paperless way….  Uncomfortable for many, but much better for our environment in the long term!

Why an Inheritance is Usually NOT Taxable

After running into this question numerous times we did a post here, and will also have an expanded article coming in our Q1 2020 Newsletter.inheritance

For the most part, inheritances are not taxable and in our post we go over the reasons why, and discuss techniques for being most tax efficient.

Just after this post a good follow on subject directly related to this post occurred that will go well in our “Why” Series Collection – Watch for another Inheritance Related Post and likely Newsletter Article !

 

Capital Market Comments –

When FED lowers, Recession Averted? Hmmmm

Near the end of the Quarter, as mentioned in our Fire Hydrant CEO post here, we ran into a most interesting chart (below)….

A first ever to see, the speaker points out that recessions are averted when the FED (Federal Open Market Committee – Jerome Powell the leader currently) lowers rates during an inverted yield curve… hmmmm

Not to worry, doing more research on this … oddly the speaker did not think much of Powell’s economic prowess, but spoke firmly that due to his LACK of horsepower on the Economy he may have a better chance of soft landing this slowdown…

 

img_5485

Always learning!!

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of December!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Drink from a Fire Hydrant of CEO’s and Company Executives – Friday

We were happy to receive our invitation to a local gathering co-sponsored by the CFA Organization (Chartered Financial Analyst) – an organization that I was president of a few years ago and maintain contacts and membership.

Wednesday and Thursday of this week, in rapid fire form, over 100 CEO’s and C level executives from all over the country, presented their company to groups of folks for a better understanding and possible investment.img_5476

We cherish this event every year, as it gives us a great candid feel for what’s going on in the economy and we get to meet a wide variety managers in different industries…..

So here’s a quick review:

 

The energy companies that we sat in on where mellow, but longer-term positive,  and much discussion about lower debt, and future higher prices, with lots of hedging as topics. Overall the energy executives felt good long-term but we’re less certain in the very shorter term. Cautiously positive, but managing very well.

Listening to a insurance company that deals with high risk properties – high risk because they’re on one of the eastern shores that is the recipient of bad weather, tactics for maximizing revenues, without passing higher expenses on to their customers, due to inelastic customers, were the topic as well as  fingers crossed for no major bad weather.

The first days keynote speaker for lunch was fantastic:img_5467

“How Government Policy Drives Stock Market Returns” was the title of his presentation.

His conclusion, Politics affect Capital Markets but it’s not sustaining,  what truly affects Capital Markets longer term is policy. We could not agree more … when new rules are instituted, that’s when talk becomes action and you have a definitive line in the sand.

Maybe something we should all remember as we enter a Presidential Election in the coming year!

On Thursday a delightful visit with the CEO of a local steel company, her thoughts on policies, tariffs which surprisingly were somewhat muted. Tariffs did not seem to bother her, but a recession would not be welcomed. Cyclical concerns in a very cyclical industry and defense of such cycles were very well presented.

The lunch speaker of the second day was also very interesting and had two main points:

Jerome Powell and China

img_5485

This chart was interesting and may make future discussions, the gist is that when rates have been lowered while an inverted yield curve occurs, it deters the recession… the recession occurs when raising DURING the inversion ….. Hmmmmm ….first time we have heard this, but it peaked our interest….

Regarding China… In a nutshell he felt like China would agree to a multiple part Tariff contract and this was someway a necessity due to China’s current economic situation, and also most politicians stance against China and their tariffs, offering no option for relief.

In conclusion, from a very high-level, everyone was well aware that this economy is not growing extremely fast, but it’s still growing. Many shared our thoughts that we may have a soft recession but a very hard recession is likely not in the cards. Very few touch the political landscape and for the most part we’re generally positive.

Ahhhh…. a HEAVY Friday for you huh ?

Apologies, but we have a short week next week and wanted to get this to you as we know you were hanging on the edge of your chair waiting…. HAHA … kidding of course, recall this is a working Diary for us as well….

Have a Great “Executive Updated” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Two Neat Charts, History of Interest Rates, and Debt, for a Lighter than Normal Pre-Thanksgiving Week

In a quest for postable animated charts (coming soon – these are REALLY fun) the following two charts grabbed attention on a Pre-Thanksgiving lighter week…. from our friends at Visual Capitalist.

Next week we will bring an animation chart to your inbox – again, they are really neat!

Interest Rates Since 1350

We crow frequently about Interest Rates, as they are very important.

Stepping back to see the forest for the trees…. this chart caught our eyes…

interest-rates-history

Location of Debt

From above, we see the long history of interest rates… below is the location

Pay particular attention to the color and the legend at the bottom of the chart as it is more important than the size of debt as focused on by the chart!

world-debt-2019

We just could not pass these up!

Have a Great “History of Rates and Location” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Good News From Interest Rates – Friday

While the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell have been lowering short term rates, see notes by us here, here and here….

Until just recently, longer term rates were following short term rates down…

Good News From Interest Rates

While the FOMC does control short term rates, they have much less control of longer term rates and actually by lowering short term rates they were hoping for this….

Higher long term rates are our friend … Possible reasons:

  • Market participants way of being more positive
  • Tariff talks proceeding
  • Less fear
  • Expectation of future growth
11-7-19 Ten Year Treasury Update

10 Year Treasury Rate

If we showed a longer term chart you would see it still has a ways to go as we are only nearing 2% – half full guys… have to start somewhere…  For now, good news!

Newsletter Under WayQ 4 2019 Newsletter Banner small

We have some really neat items under way for the Q 1 2020 (yikes- did we just say that) Newsletter… we have found some great Government Public sources of information that we think you will really like – now on to pulling it all together for brevity and clarity — never thought those research paper skills would be so used – Sorry to all the English teachers that did not get full effort..yes you told me so! haha

Today is a chilly Friday and Thanksgiving is just around the corner…

Have a Great Friday and Weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA. CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

 

October 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our October 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

BREAK IN

D Magazines Best Wealth Managers

2019 Final Approved Dmagazine Best Wealth Manager

D Magazine Best Financial Planner – 13th Consecutive – Wow

Best_Financial_Planner 2019

Sirius Satellite Radio Co-Host

JK Sirius

 

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

October – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Why we want ANY seeming Important Document

In this post, due to recent fantastic $$ savings just by having access to very old documents… some almost two decades, we were reminded of how important it is for us to safely keep ANY seeming important document…. forever

Only thing is, if we do not have a soft copy… we cannot save it!

Capital Market Comments –

FED Lowers Once Again, another .25% – Likely Pause Expected

Jerome Powell Chief of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) lowered rates by .25% to the 1.50% to 1.75% range, which will directly effect our overnight money, such as checking accounts and money markets… We think in part, to answer expectations… the good news is they have set future pause expectations… which we like!

Longer term rates have followed a bit, for now.

11-2-19 Fed Funds Rates

 

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of November!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Q 3 Quarterly Review Cover Letter

A True Yogi Berra saying may be fitting now – It’s like déjà vu all over again!”

Tariffs and Trade War Talks Continue

While the tariff banter seems relentless and every day changing, leading to Capital Market bipolar movements, one day irrational exuberance, and the next day irrationally depressed, as mentioned in our Q4 Newsletter, tariff talk has been going on for decades. With today’s constant bombardment of immediate news stories and short clips it seems, present party included, to be constant and all encompassing. The reality is this likely will work itself out, just as seen in the graph in the newsletter. Our bet is once the tariff talk turns into tariff agreements, we will see market relief and higher overall interest rates. For now, there’s no doubt that the tariff talk is slowing the global economy and there is no envy for public company managers trying to navigate the possible changes that occur on a day by day basis, making it very tough to stock inventory and make purchases.

Treasury Rates- Interest rate cycle

Given the afore mentioned Tariff Talk, FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by chief Jerome Powell and a company have embarked on a lowering of rates, twice to be exact, but only two .25 basis points each, in an attempt to help ease interest rate burdens and spur the economy. While not huge fans of the lowering of rates at this time due to gun powder needs at a future, when the inevitable recession occurs, at this time it appears we are on an interest rate decrease path, a complete 180° turn from just one year ago, when reserve officials were raising. If there is an agreement in Tariff talk, lowering of rates would likely stop, and we might even hear talks of raising, making for an interesting rate cycle. Time will tell.

Taxes or the savings of taxes paid

As we head into the final quarter of the year it’s time to make sure we’ve done all we can do for this years’ , especially items that have no look back features. As also mentioned in our Q4 newsletter, be sure to max those 401(k)s, contribute or distribute from 529‘s, complete Required Minimum Distributions (RMD’s) and make sure those charitable giving are complete this year, as all of these items have a hard stop year-end deadline.

Have a great day and start to fall!

Sincerely,

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Enclosure 2019 Report

Q 4 2019 Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 4 2019 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click Here for direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going!

Q 4 2019 Newsletter

Click for PDF/printable version of Newsletter

 

And here is your review!

Is it Time to Refinance?

With Mortgage rates moving lower, we discuss the major items to think of when refinancing your Mortgage.

Our most clever point is we like to have an 18 month payback for the costs when refinancing… this serves as a good barometer on when to refinance, irrespective of the size of your Mortgage.

 

30 Year US Avg Mortgage Rate

 

Tariff Talk

It’s been going on for a long time

Trade Wars AKA Tariff talks have been around for a long time. This is not our first rodeo… notice how trade has been more efficient over time!

 

us-trade-wars-history Cropped

End of Year Tax Reminders

While there are a lot of reach back tax items i.e. Things we can do next year for this years taxes… there are many that have a firm year end deadline-

  • RMD – Required Minimum Distributions
  • Company Related Retirement plans i.e. 401k
  • Charitable Donations
  • 529 and other education programs

We hope you enjoy … talk to you in ….. 2020 WOOOW !!!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com