Category Archives: Interest Rates

Fourth Quarter 2022 Review, Bill(s), Rates, Bills and Sunshine – Private Policy, Annual Offerings

Dear Investor:

Bill(s)

On December 20th, 2019 the Secure Act was singed into law. On December 27th , 2022 the Secure Act 2.0, a bill long in the works and a mere 4200 pages long was signed into law. The most important item in the financial world (there were a multitude of areas addressed) as the second upping of RMD’s to age 73. Look for more information soon from us.

Rates

In December the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell raised rates to over 4% after starting the year at zero.  As mentioned in our Q1 2023 Newsletter article (Maybe a Tiger can change Stripes0, on a percentage basis this would be a possible once in a lifetime speedy move.  This may also be a return to a normal interest rate policy (hopefully) with no intention of going to the zero boundary again.  See Next point.

Bills

Not getting too wordie, but US citizens “bills” or the increase in them in the form of food, travel, energy, housing just to name a few are what is creating the opportunity of the afore mentioned speed of rates or rate increases. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) measurements continue to hold at much loftier levels than anyone thought possible (somewhat due to lagging indicators) and are allowing rates to rise and likely stay higher for longer.  This is a good thing for our safe assets aka Fixed Income/Bonds thankfully as most of the headwinds are likely behind us, again see Q1 2023 Newsletter lead article and associate graphs.

Sunshine

Last year at this time we were reviewing items such as “Anatomy of a Slowdown” and “The R” Word – Recession.

Today, from our unique “Personal Reflections” portion of our Q1 2023 Newsletter :

“Future is better

Just as we pointed out over a year ago what a slowdown looks like and that it might occur, we are now ready to point out later on this year it’s very likely the clouds of higher interest rates and two feet on the economic brakes by Powell are likely to clear.”

This is also the time we attach our Private Policy Statement for the year, along with our opportunity to offer our latest ADV filings and Client Relationship Summary (Form CRS); Requests for review will be accepted via phone, mail or email, and mailed immediately upon request.

Happy Turn of the Calendar, and Best Wishes for the Start of a New Year!

Sincerely,

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Enclosure (2022 Report)

J.K. Financial, Inc.

PRIVACY POLICY NOTICE

Our Promise to You

As a client of J.K. Financial, Inc., you share both personal and financial information with us.  Your privacy is important to us, and we are dedicated to safeguarding your personal and financial information. 

Information Provided by Clients 

In the normal course of doing business, we typically obtain the following non-public personal information about our clients: 

  • Personal information regarding our clients’ identity such as name, address and social security number;
  • Information regarding securities transactions effected by us; and
  • Client financial information such as net-worth, assets, income, bank account information and account balances.

How We Manage and Protect Your Personal Information

We do not sell information about current or former clients to third parties, nor is it our practice to disclose such information to third parties unless requested to do so by a client or client representative or, if necessary, in order to process a transaction, service an account or as permitted by law

In order to protect your personal information, we maintain physical, electronic and procedural safeguards to protect your personal information.  Our Privacy Policy restricts the use of client information and requires that it be held in strict confidence.

Client Notifications

We are required by law to annually provide a notice describing our privacy policy.  In addition, we will inform you promptly if there are changes to our policy. 

Please do not hesitate to contact us with questions about this notice.

December 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – Secure Act 2.0 – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our December 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

December 2022 Video


YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Secure Act 2.0 – Passed on 12-27-22 Quietly …. Shhhhh we are working through the details

On December 27, 2022 a HUGE bill … over 4000 pages, was passed…. while not sweeping in our neck of the woods, there is one main adjustment….

RMD – Required Minimum Distributions are pushed out again to age 73! Not Kidding!

Capital Market Comments

Rate Increase – Fed Raised rates for the Holidays

In December the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell raised rates, but only by .50% … but it was a raise…

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of January – Happy 2023!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Q1 2023 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Estate Tax Law change Heads Up …. Higher Rates for Longer from Stubborn Lagging CPI Inputs … Personal Reflection … By John Kvale CFA, CFP …

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q1 2023 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

Q1 2023 Newsletter

(YouTube)

Personal Reflections –

Entering the 36 year in the Financial and Capital Markets world, a lesson was learned this year (see below) we want to thank everyone for their well wishes, patience and confidence as we went through a unique “Changing of the Tiger Stripes” event this year!

Higher Rates – Longer – CPI Stubbornly High

CPI Causes Tiger Stripes to Change?

Very Lagging Rent and Shelter Numbers keep pushing CPI

Estate Tax Laws Set to Change – Heads Up

At the end of 2025, putting January 1, 2026 into play, without any tax law adjustments the Estate Tax level will adjust back down to somewhere between a $7 to $8 million or $14 to $16 million for couples level. 

While Estate Tax is not a huge revenue earner for the IRS, in our opinion Estate tax is in purpose is to affect the very largest of the states think  $100 million and up. 

Additionally the IRS is having trouble completing regular federal tax returns, by some estimates some 15 to 20 thousand taxpayers are still waiting on their regular federal returns to be blessed by the IRS from 2020 to present.  Lowering the Estate Tax level to an extreme low, while may sound good in the headlines, impracticality, it will likely create a huge bottleneck and more trouble than money earned. 

Bottom Line – We are on this in advance!

Happy New Years and a Great Start to 2023!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

REVIEW REWIND REPLAY – Shrinking the Balance Sheet Explained, Bulking and Lowering too

This post is clearly dated…. BUT it is actually what current chair Jerome Powell is doing today in addition to raising rates! Enjoy the replay review!

Last Wednesday Janet Yellen, FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) chairperson released comments on their duty as Federal Reserve members but also introduced a term that may be new to many.

“Shrinking the Balance Sheet”

What is the Balance Sheet

Much to the happiness of all those bookkeeper, accountants, CPA’s and the like, present party included, entries must balance.  Even the US Government as huge as it is, runs by the old adage

Assets = Liabilities + Equity

A basic accounting principal, that MUST always work…

If a change is made, it must be counted somewhere else, even on the USA’s balance sheet.

Bulking up the Balance Sheet

Post “Great Recession of 07-09” FOMC members smartly embarked on a successful but unknown effort at the time, of infusing banks and capital markets with Greenbacks aka $ Dollars!

The Federal Reserve led by FOMC members, with the click of a button created money in their checking account and created a contra account for balancing purposes then went out to capital markets and bought bought bought in HUGE quantities various capital instruments, but for the most part US Bonds of all maturities.

Their goal, again unchartered territory at the time was to infuse money into the system and also lower interest rates.

By  purchasing large quantities of instruments the FOMC were putting dollars directly into the system … there were other programs as well, but for the sake of simplicity, their buys pushed money into, at the time, a much needed financial system.

The numbers of this chart are not as important as the line and dates.

img_0874

As the FOMC clicked and bought and clicked and bought again in keeping their books “Balanced” the Federal Reserve Bank Assets Grew and Grew.

Finally the Sizzle, Shrinking the Balance Sheet

Take a peek at the far right of the line in the chart… Come on now you can do it …. this is important, and you have come this far …

What do you see? It’s flat lining….

Since most of the FOMC purchases were bonds of various types, and bonds mature, that line should begin to decrease. The FOMC holds such a huge portfolio of bonds, maturity occurs almost constantly.

Until now, the FOMC has re-invested or repurchased maturing bonds with new bonds, thereby holding that line flat. Yellen and crew are now signaling they may NOT re-invest those maturing bonds, which would lead to a VERY SLOW decline in the FOMC balance sheet or a …

“Shrinking of the Balance Sheet”

These words have been carefully chosen. Eventually the FOMC may actually sell their bonds back into the capital markets, reversing the stimulus applied in the “Great Recession of 07-09” more quickly. That would not be called “Shrinking” that would be called lowering, reducing, or something similar, look for this type of cryptic rhetoric in the future …. for now, shrinking simply means letting the maturing bonds mature and NOT re-investing … Shrinking the Balance Sheet !

There you have it, this post turned longer than expected, but the background should have made for a clearer picture … if you made it this far, pat yourself on the back… You now know the current “Shrinking” step along with likely future announcements by the FOMC and committee members!

Have a Great “Deciphering Cryptic FOMC Rhetoric” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

YEAR END REPLAY – Fastest Interest Rate Increases Ever, and that’s a long time … Friends at Visual Capitalist!

Wanted to replay this post as it is unusual to have a “Never Before” Event this day and age !

From our friends at Visual Capitalist

This is pressure for now, but pleasure as our income from our fixed pays out more!

When the Fixed Income market breathes, rates typically go down in a slowdown…. even with the Fed raising short term rates… actually especially when they raise short term rates…

Have a Good “Temporary Pressure Eventual Pleasure” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Happy Holidays … Gentleman’s Agreement Held? Will see … Mostly Out of Office Over the Holidays … Link to TV Post …

Happy Holidays ….. Over the remaining days of the year, there is a “Gentlemen’s Agreement” to basically do no harm…. this agreement was violated in 2018 by Guess who? Non other than an aggressively increasing rates FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)

Not sure if you caught the news on Wednesday but the afore mentioned FOMC raised rates by .50% this week…

Not sure how this plays out, but Jerome Powell (FOMC chair) may not be bringing presents….

Holidays Out of the Office

While we will have electronics… (we always have electronics) …. we are planning on being out of the office most of the Holidays …

For the safety of the streets, with all of our gangs getting out mid day, we will also be out mid day…

Oh… here is the link to Wednesdays post here on our blog….forgot Youtube embeds do not make it through email servers these days….

Happy Holidays and Seasons Greetings!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

November 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – RMD’s and Rate Review – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our November 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

November 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

RMD’s (Required Minimum Distributions) not taken can be taxed at 50%

In this reminder post (somewhat meant to frighten) we notify everyone, PLEASE do not delay in your RMD’s as the IRS is readily funded with new staff and the penalty is 50% of the amount not taken if they so desire….

Also with a continued bottle neck lack of workers …. many financial firms are on a “Best Effort” processing as of December 1! Gone are the last minute days of RMD’s act now!

Capital Market Comments

Rate Increase Discussions from “First Time in Long Time Conference”

Happily attending the first conference in over four years, the topic of interest rates came up, especially since a .75% rate increase occurred DURING the conference….

In this post, a chance meeting with Liz Ann Saunders … long time macro market strategist… we share our common thoughts on the fact the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Powell are steadfast in their goals to slow the economy i.e. Slow consumption …. no matter what is takes…

Fort the record while short term rates are holding fast at a higher level, longer term rates have slowed their increases…. More on this as it plays out….

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of December – Wow That Came Fast!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

The Fed Raised Rates, Analysis on Short and Long Term Rates, Interesting Observations From Conference Conversations

Last week during the afore mentioned conference, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) continued their increases in the the short end of the yield curve aka Fed Funds Rate…

FOMC – Federal Reserve Raises by .75%

Last week the FOMC continued their increases in the very short term Fed Funds Rate…

Note the 1 Year Treasury compared to the 10 Year – Inverted as the longer term fixed income market could be looking forward to the eventual slow down.

In a chance conversation at the conference, Liz Ann Sonders – (Chief Investment Strategist of Charles Schwab) and I had a conversation about the FOMC meeting and an interesting observation.

The press release had some soft language that led many to believe they may be on the path to slowing increases…. Capital Markets took off…. of course Powell could see this and during his live press conference made sure to re-iterate the increases were still on the table…

Sonders and I both agreed, had the capital markets not gotten ahead of themselves… Powell would likely have said nothing… The Fed wants the slow down …

Have A Great “Fed Raised and Analysis” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Updates from the Conference – Today’s FOMC Announcement Analysis – Cyber Security …

As mentioned last week, the first in-person large conference in some time is going on this week…. It is very nice to see everyone “In Person” …. we had forgotten just how full the schedules are during these events … full day ahead …

Briefly our two most important topics so far!

FOMC – Federal Open Market Committee Thoughts for Today’s Announcment

Just after lunch hour today the FOMC lead by Jerome Powell are set to raise rates (Fed Funds Rates – think overnight checkbook rate) by .75% (75 basis points) ….

The experts here say focus on the future (for the record we have been crowing on looking forward throughout this slowdown see here and here – digressing) as the Wall Street chatter is a step down possibility at the next meeting to a .50% — a firming of the higher .75% increase as the next meeting OR an even softer talk of maybe no .50% would be market moving… again according to our experts…

Cybersecurity – No Email of Social Security or the Like Documents

Condensing this event into one important topic – we all need to make sure we do not send documents with Social Security numbers or the like through email…. the hackers are just too good…

This is more of a reminder for all… but as we enter tax season next year, a good reminder!

Alright, that is it for now, a quick jog and workout… then to breakfast and back in doors for a full scheduld of events today!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

October 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – DMA Reminder – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our October 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Dallas Museum of Art

2 PM Saturday Afternoon November 19th before Thanksgiving Weekend

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

October 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

New Retirement Contribution Maximums

  • 401(k), 403(b), most 457 plans, increased to $22,500 (2023), up from $20,500 (2022)
  • Catch up for those over 50 is increased to $7,500 (2023), up from $6,500 (2022)
  • Total max 401(k), 403(b), most 457 plans including catch up is $30,000 (2023) up from $27,000 (2022)
  • limit on annual contributions to an IRA increased to $6,500 (2023), up from $6,000 (2022)
  • IRA catch up for those age 50 and greater remains $1000
  • Annual Gift Exclusion amount increased to $17,000 (2023) from $16,000 (2022)

Highlighted in this post

Capital Market Comments

Fastest Interest Rate Increase EVER – That’s a long time1

Our friends at Visual Capitalist are at it again with a superb chart we have been watching for, here in this post we highlight the following chart of just how fast this interest rate increase has been – fastest ever that is

Recall this is a TEMPORAY headwind to Fixed income instruments, that show up in greater magnitude due to the FOMC’s aggressiveness…

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of October!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents