90 Day Treadmill aka Earnings Update and Neat 10 year Chart

Earnings are the ultimate driver of capital markets.

Growth or the expectation of growth and markets will EVENTUALLY (patience may be needed at times) rise.

Contraction of earnings – think recession- markets will go down, no patience needed on this one, as markets frequently do not waste time in their contraction.

Earnings Update

We frequently quote our Friends at Factset as they do a fantastic job of reviewing every detail of earnings each 90 Day Treadmill/Quarter …. too much of course can lead to YAAAWN … we get it, but we have to keep an eye on this stuff even during Summer Doldrums-

Here is a latest update-

  • Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2018 (with 5% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 89% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 85% have reported a positive sales surprise. 
  • Earnings Growth: For Q2 2018, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 19.9%. If 19.9% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the second highest earnings growth since Q3 2010 (34.1%). 
  • Earnings Revisions: On June 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q2 2018 was 20.0%. Four sectors have lower growth rates today (compared to June 30) due to downward estimate revisions and negative earnings surprises. 
  • Earnings Guidance: For Q2 2018, 62 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 47 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. 
  • Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.6. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (16.2) and above the 10-year average (14.4).

Ok, so earnings are moving along pretty good as managers continue to navigate tax cuts and a frisky consumer.

Our theme of the year “Patience” is still in order – but take a look at this neat chart –

Neat 10 Year Review of Earnings and Market Movement


7-13-18 EPS Growth and Mkt Growth 10 year avg

There is a correlation in earnings and capital market growth- patience and fingers crossed for continued fantastic earnings growth!

Have a Great “Continued Positive Earnings” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.

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