Category Archives: Earnings

FOMC Meeting and Interest Rate Update from Last Week

Last week, here in our preview of the meeting post, we discussed what the Federal Open Market Committee would likely review via the fortunate lunch with local Dallas Federal Reserve Chair Robert Kaplan and even had direct audio from the event.

We know it’s summer and we know many of you may be taking much needed R and R, but the FOMC meeting last week was surprisingly important.

Bottom Line: No rate lowering but rhetoric that was taken by market participants as a lowering is in the cards sooner rather than later!

Important Update Meeting Review

Jerome Powell, FOMC Chair released his decision to NOT lower rates ….

our comments….

From information gathered via the audio and economic data points available at the time, we felt strongly that the FOMC would not LOWER rates, that’s in bold because until just recently, many thought future increases may be in the cards.

However … this statement, in the FOMC press release was deemed to mean rates will be lower at the next meeting, which put wind int he sails of Capital Markets …

“The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook have increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”

Here is the joint estimate of FOMC members for  GDP (Gross Domestic Production-broadest estimate of US growth) for the remainder of the year … note an expectation of slightly slower growth for the remainder of the year and into 2020/21:

6-19-19 GDP Estimate FOMC

There is also a Dot Chart that shows where FOMC members expect rates to be over the same time period, but it was a mess and confusing…so we left it out!

Not playing Economist here, but there is a lot of room for lowering or NOT lowering as well… time will tell, but for now the general consensus for the next meeting which is at the end of July (30-31) is for a lowering of rates, at least by most Market Participants or those with a microphone  …. Call us skeptical of agreeing at this time….

Bottom Line: No rate lowering but rhetoric that was taken by market participants as a lowering is in the cards sooner rather than later!

There are some nice positives that come with these expectations… Mortgage Rates will likely continue to stay low and may even go lower!

Sorry if we got into the weeds, but we wanted to clarify the slightly blurry statement, reaction, and expectations!

Have a Great “FOMC Meeting Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Earnings Matter, ultimately the most, let’s take a peek at how they are doing

With earnings being the ultimate driver of Capital Markets it’s always good to stick our heads down into the weeds occasionally to see how corporate managers are navigating the waters.

Our favorite go-to source for this information is from our friends at Factset, a research arm that does terrific tracking …

Here are a few charts with our notes:

This following is an estimate of Earnings for the remainder of 2019 and for the year 2020 – notice expectations are positive year over year 2018 to 2019 but not much growth is expected from the analyst community – Tariff agreement would likely change this expectation quickly…

img_1243-e1557890593225.png

Next up, how the change in estimates has occurred in real time – take note of the drop near the end of the year 2018 – while it looks like a larger than normal drop, and we prefer it increasing, it is only about a 5% total expected drop but again still a year over year increase as seen from the prior chart.

img_1242-e1557890631119.png

Lastly, we had to throw one of our favorite charts in from our friends at JPMorgan – the lagging blue line, that actually looks out of place, is the current market expansion rate – note how slow this expansion (2007-current) has been. We find this very interesting as even the 2001 expansion was at a much faster pace than our current. Could we be entering an extended period of slower, but more stable growth? This would also speak to lessened concerns of inflation and lowered expectations moving forward…

img_1244.png

Overall, lets give corporate managers an A to almost A+, especially those dealing with overseas trading partners of any kind.

Have a Great “Update Earnings” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Q 1 2019 Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 4 2018 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click Here for direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going!

 Q 1 2019 Newsletter 

And here is your review!

Capital Market Talk

The Grinch Came to Christmas

Just a few days into the final Quarter of 2018, market participants became grumpy and continued their coal ways all the way through the end of the year – a seasonally strong historic period of time.

In our main capital market article we discuss the reasons why – no one knows for certain, and discuss the speed of the decline along with what the future may hold..

Updated Personal Theft Story

After having three credit cards stolen which we spoke of here, an interview with a detective brought to light some amazing stories of theft

  1. Never give gift cards as a payment –
  2. Don’t fall for fake blackmail –
  3. Have a safe word for fake kidnappers or other similar scams

Meet Jennifer Hill “Jen” Our New Operations Manager

In a more in-depth article that expands on her background, Jennifer “Jen” Hill has our formal introduction along with several fun pictures including a Charlie’s Angels and a D Magazine Wealth Managers Picture from our honored award of D Magazine’s Best Wealth Managers.

We hope you enjoy … talk to you in the Spring!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Third Quarter 2018 Cover Letter

The third quarter of 2018 is behind us and the original theme from the first month of the year seems still most appropriate, patience. After rocketing to an unsustainable trajectory in January, the excuse was an over use of a dangerous product, the reality looks to be, we just got too far ahead of ourselves and corrected harshly to a more reasonable trajectory.
It was the Best of Times, it was the Worst of Times
As we look forward, the best part of the year “historically” lies just in our view as we finish the year. Using history as our guide, oddly the first month of the coming quarter has been the most treacherous. Not the time to get to overzealous or glum!
Earnings Eventually Matter
In our Q4 2018 Capital Market Newsletter Article we discuss in detail the correlation of earnings and capital market movement. This obvious connection does not always hold true in the shorter term as aggressive emotions such as greed and fear overshoot constantly in both directions. Eventually the correlation re-connects and more normal heads prevail, making earnings growth and market growth work in tandem.
Interest Rates
The fear of, or at least watching for, an inverted yield curve has grown in popularity. We discussed this item last quarter in great detail. Oddly, when many are looking for an event, it loses it’s predictability. We are not ignoring, and will continue to monitor, but we are concerned at a possible loss of predictively with the crowds of followers swelling. Predictive or not, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) has been slow and open to interest rate increases, so far, and capital markets, the economy and participants are very happy with the increases and have digested them nicely.
Bonds, most effected by interest rates, and one of the safest asset classes tend to feel the headwinds most of higher interest rates. Higher, and increasing rates are initially a headwind, but once the increases stabilize, they become a tailwind, and increased yields push more money into our pockets. This cycle is no different, other than the fact that interest rates we so unprecedented low to begin with, this temporary headwind seems stronger than in other cycles, but it is really not. Look for more details on this subject again in our coming Newsletter.
Have a good start to fall!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Q 4 2018 Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 4 2018 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click Here for direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

BREAK IN – Save the date for the Holiday Party

November 17th – Saturday before Thanksgiving – Dallas Athletic Club from 3-5 pm

DAC

Let’s get going!

Q 4 2018 Newsletter

And here is your review!

Capital Market Talk

Earnings and Markets Eventually Converge

In this hugely in depth article, first we discuss the effect of earnings eventually driving capital markets, but disconnects can occur. It can even be a good thing for Capital Markets to WAY underperform earnings, as they are this year because in brings valuations back in line.

Here is the key graph

7-13-18 EPS Growth and Mkt Growth 10 year avg

Higher Rates, a Short Term Headwind, Eventually a Tailwind

With sustained lower rates over the last decade, memories have faded on the tugging headwinds that higher rates have – IN THE SHORT TERM – on the mandatory safety asset class of bonds.

Higher rates are a great thing as Bonds/Fixed Income Assets have a place for almost all investors due to their safety and liquidity.

Once the headwinds subside our fixed income investments will have ridden the yield curve higher and begin paying more income in the form of yield – into our pockets – Finally!
bond index V Interest Rates

Too High of Rates Can Create Trouble

Too high of rates or an overshoot CAN create trouble … or a recession…

Our friends at JPMorgan – historically show that rate is about 5% – yea FIVE percent –

We disagree and think a lower level may now be this tipping point, due to the decade low interest rate level we have just experienced-

Current at two percent, we have a long way to go before getting too antsy
JPMorgan Rate Level for Slowdown

Inverted Yield Curve Update

So far to good- no inversion yet!
9-28-18 90 day to 10 year Inverted Curve status

Financial Planning

This series of articles came out of no where and in like domino fashion, once one was done the next took form and fell into place-

PLUP graph

App of the Quarter – Hardware

Our editor took the fancy picture out due to copyright fears, but our experience with the Firestick has been exceptional – Here are the highlights of our findings

  • Great Savings compared to just full service in many cases
  • Does not take as much internet speed as we thought
  • Bring your home on the road
  • Multiple devices used at once
  • Cuts back on duplicated services
  • Allows cherry picking services

Enjoy the fall –

See Ya next Year – Wow 2019 here we come!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

90 Day Treadmill aka Earnings Update and Neat 10 year Chart

Earnings are the ultimate driver of capital markets.

Growth or the expectation of growth and markets will EVENTUALLY (patience may be needed at times) rise.

Contraction of earnings – think recession- markets will go down, no patience needed on this one, as markets frequently do not waste time in their contraction.

Earnings Update

We frequently quote our Friends at Factset as they do a fantastic job of reviewing every detail of earnings each 90 Day Treadmill/Quarter …. too much of course can lead to YAAAWN … we get it, but we have to keep an eye on this stuff even during Summer Doldrums-

Here is a latest update-

  • Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2018 (with 5% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 89% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 85% have reported a positive sales surprise. 
  • Earnings Growth: For Q2 2018, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 19.9%. If 19.9% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the second highest earnings growth since Q3 2010 (34.1%). 
  • Earnings Revisions: On June 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q2 2018 was 20.0%. Four sectors have lower growth rates today (compared to June 30) due to downward estimate revisions and negative earnings surprises. 
  • Earnings Guidance: For Q2 2018, 62 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 47 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. 
  • Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.6. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (16.2) and above the 10-year average (14.4).

Ok, so earnings are moving along pretty good as managers continue to navigate tax cuts and a frisky consumer.

Our theme of the year “Patience” is still in order – but take a look at this neat chart –

Neat 10 Year Review of Earnings and Market Movement

 

7-13-18 EPS Growth and Mkt Growth 10 year avg

There is a correlation in earnings and capital market growth- patience and fingers crossed for continued fantastic earnings growth!

Have a Great “Continued Positive Earnings” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Test and Re-Test ? Where Oh where are Capital Markets going? This likely will take some time …. Weeks for sure and likely Months? … We will need Patience!

After a long lethargic flat-lined Capital Market of 2017, things have finally changed, and we need to begin to get used to more normal Capital Markets.

What follows are details of what the Capital Markets have done over the last few days (yes only days) …  what we should expect moving forward, along with a review of similar historical movement. Given a future that Rhymes with the past, the most important point we want to get across is this —

What we want everyone to understand is it is highly likely we do not just bounce right back and go to highs again quickly, so let’s have patience and set our expectations for an extended Capital Market search for the most appropriate level.

Ok, so you have the most likely scenario, here is why.

Current Capital Market Review

Suddenly the Capital Markets cared about something — and were WAY ahead of themselves, so they began going down!

We thought they might stop at our fancy trend line from our early post on this subject.

2-3-18-spx-w-trendlines-and-jk-notes.jpg

Nope …. participants pushed on past the trend line.

2-12-18 SPX Trendline

Participants decided the 200 Moving Day Average was where they should stop …

 

2-13-18 SPX hits 200 MDA

So we have a stopping spot, what happens next may be best seen by looking at the past for a possible rhyming future.

2016 Rhyme

The first drop was about 24 trading days followed by another 20-25 day test in a few months.

Start to finish about six months with a move all the way back to even before a second drop.

2-11-18 2016 SPX -010% Moves

2012 Rhyme

With two hiccups during this 2012  time frame, again our weekly charts show a 2-4 months of capital market footing discovery ….

2-11-18 2012 SPX Draw downs 10%

 

Let’s settle in for more normal, but what feels like “Rockier” times, which will likely be with us for a while.

  • Economy is Good
  • Global recovery is beginning
  • Interest Rates are Rising but at a reasonable rate
  • Consumers are feeling good

Patience will reward us!

Happy “Patience” Valentine’s day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com