The Look Through Continues
As mentioned in the last quarterly summary, Investors and Capital Market Participants are indeed looking through this self-made slow down and into the eventual continuation of the economy.
The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell continue to provide support via lower interest rates (likely for a shorter period than during the post 08-09 period) and asset purchases to help shore up possible needed cash from institutions and participants.
Speaking of FOMC stimulus, should a vaccine or multiple vaccines, (the possibilities detailed greatly in our Q3 Newsletter), occur sooner, rather than later, a faster economic rebound may be in the cards. On the other side, should increase in contagion lead to further Economic slowdown, capital market participants would likely lose some of their enthusiasm.
The Sequel Is Usually not as Scary
One thing about the sequel, should it occur, it is usually not near as scary as the original. No doubt as mentioned again in our Q3 newsletter, many of the worlds brightest are working together and have learned much just over the last 90 days.
With the worlds brightest pushing massive energy to a common goal, the future, especially when dealing with healthcare, is likely much brighter and coming faster than we all think!
Given so many unknowns, we are likely to be captive to positive and negative headlines until the eventual vaccine is discovered.
With the possibility that Investors may have gotten a little bit ahead of themselves, expectation for bumps along the way over the next few quarters have heightened.
Again, why we like having a conservative posture.
Stay safe be well will talk to you in the fall!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Enclosure (2020 Report)