In late 2018 the FOMC learned a valuable lesson that they are intent on not repeating. At their most recent FOMC meeting Jerome Powell, chair, made it very clear that the large monthly asset purchases, $120 billion to be exact, will begin to be tapered. Powell also made it very clear that the eventual raising of interest rates would not occur until the taper was complete unlike the events of 2018 in which the FOMC tapered and increased short-term interest rates at the same time, much to market participants dismay.
Bottom line if all goes well scheduled monthly asset purchases will be trimmed and eventually reach zero sometime next year.
The most widely followed interest rate, the 10-year US treasury, after having a startling move earlier this year from under 1% to over 1.7% dropped back down to the low 1.2% during the most recent slowdown due to the variant.
Whether Powell’s comments, or the turning of the variant, interest rates have taken note and moved up smartly to over 1.5% beginning the normalization of higher interest rates which is very good long-term for the financial system
Kyle Bass Predictions
In our Q4 Newsletter we noted some very positive predictions from local financial mogul Kyle Bass, namely oil reaching $100 a barrel before the year end and continued Federal Reserve protection along with a push through to the end of the variant.
Hopefully all of these predictions come true.
The Worst of Times the Best of Times
September and October tend to be the most challenging months for Capital Markets mostly due to large institutions, think Fidelity as an example, closing their books on the year which make for more volatile times. So far, this theme seems to have played true.
The good news is notwithstanding our 2018 example from above, November and December tend to be some of the better months of the calendar.
As we head to the end of the year, we will be watching all of these and many other things very closely and will be communicating live on our blog at street-cents.
In this post, we spoke to the safety of signing your name to the biggest email providers if possible for your own safety….
Of course not all names will be available, but if yours is, it is a great idea to take it, even if you never use the email platform… think scammers acting as you!
Capital Market Comments
Jerome Powell Gets Angry, Taper Coming
In this market related post, we noted that Powell, head of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) was very stern in taper talk as well as the following quote from us:
“On another totally different and non-market related and non-economic related topic several federal reserve members had transactions over the past year that were not optically good for the federal reserve. One of the members is our very own favorite Robert Kaplan who had multiple large transactions in securities that the federal reserve was involved.
While we will voice no opinion on this … Jerome Powell was very stern surprisingly, and in our mind so stern that it could be an occupational loss for some of these members. It will be interesting to see what comes out of this, but this is not the end of it and once again Powell was very angry and forceful on this point.”
Unfortunately, Kaplan our favorite announced his retirement as well as the other board member, before the end of the day after our post!
Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of October!
Multiple frauds occurring in continuous weeks, led us to write this post, reminding those that the fraudsters are still at it.
Their latest game…using stolen Socials and Employment information to gain unsuspecting employers Unemployment compensation.
While likely some accidentally fall through the cracks, we have yet to experience anything other than a mild inconvenience….
But do not let your guards down and if a victim, keep your eyes peeled for other items for the near term!
Child Tax Credit Confusion
After repeated confusion, here in this post we outline the new ADVANCED child tax credit payments than sneakily commenced several months ago…
Also a warning of an overworked IRS to keep line of sight to the funds in case we need to pay them back in the form of a higher tax bill when completing our 2021 Form 1040 Personal income tax return in April of 2022!
Here are his latest forecasts…. hopefully they come true
The Federal Reserve will continue to support the markets with continued purchases.
Federal Reserve feels responsible for Capital Markets … i.e. Every Federal Reserve member has a Bloomberg Investment terminal on their desk and post public talks, Fed members go back to their office to check the markets reactions to their comments.
Much more inflation than actually as printed by CPI – (Consumer Price Index) Example of car price increases up 300% over last thirty years, but CPI auto costs increased 5% over that period.
Cost of Food increases may cause social inequity problems.
Oil hits $100 per barrel this year … due to mal investment over the last 7 years.
Short term interest rates not to go higher than 1.5% and long term (10 year) rates will not go higher than 2.5%. i.e. Bernanke Helicopter speech outlines the difficulty in raising rates a lot once they are at a lowered level for some time.
We push through the Delta Variant and there is a REAL re-opening effect that works its way through the economy (Hope this is correct!)
Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of September!
IRS Refunds and Tax Return Processing Very Delayed
In this Break In Post, after having discussions with several of you, and then touching our CPA contacts we came to the conclusion that the IRS is delayed in processing returns and more importantly REFUNDS!!!
Before we could get the news to you, this Yahoo Finance Article nicely summarizes that the IRS is behind on a whopping 20% of returns or over 30 million !
With a September 1, 2021 IRS stimulus check lookback (those who did not get the last round of stimulus will be reviewed by the IRS to see if they qualify) the IRS has their hands very full….
All together…. PATIENCE! They will eventually get to us!
Fingers Crossed For a Hot (Large) COLA Increase
Catching wind through our contacts of a possible HOT (read Large!) COLA adjustment this year for Social Security and possibly those lucky ones that have a COLA adjuster on their Pension or other retirement plan we dug in here in this post and outlined the methodology used by the SSA. The line in the sand for adjustment is later in the year but as can be seen by the latest CPI-W running at 6.1%, with a little luck, we may have a very nice adjustment on our hands!
Capital Market Comments
Valuations are Getting Better but Expectations are WAY out of Line!
In this post and with the help of our Friends at JPMorgan we happily reviewed the far right hand smartly turning graph, that is headed in the correct direction for better valuations… YAY
A bit later in the month we ran across a wonderful but somewhat worrisome poll done by Natixis of over 8000 investors and their expected return over the next 10 years…. Way off base in our minds….
Likely to see this last poll make its way into the Newsletter as these numbers are likely so exaggerated, we want more air time!
Ok…that’s a wrap for the July review….
Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of August!
Mid this week, the official cut over of email and contacts occurred…. Fortunately we did not have any MAJOR problems, but there are some missing data…
Not to worry we have over four weeks access of the old data….
Funny thing about technology….unlike a struggling car that just barely gets you there, technology usually works or not – no in between….
Office Calendars Into the Home Stretch
Next week I will start an extended working remote/Vacation in a cooler place with Family, Friends and even some fellow Advisors and their families as well…. Likely get the July Month End Video Review from there–thank you afore mentioned Technology! The solitude usually begets great creative ideas… Lookout Blog Posts and Newsletter!
Jen lets off some steam later next week- much deserved
Donald “The Brain” gets the next week after Jen returns…. much deserved as well!
Nice staggering Guys!
New Years Resolution Broken But Try to Fix ….
One of my New Years resolutions was to play ONE (lofty goal huh) yep just one round of golf a Month…..
Current at 0 for 7 months…. with avid golfers meeting at my remote working location, an attempt at a correction will hopefully start. Newbies, I was a collegiate golfer for three years, helping with Tuition and room and board…. That was a chapter long ago though…. Ok Digressing, back to business…
Ahhhh…. Today is a Friday heading into an about to go Remote for a while Weekend….
Enjoy your Friday and your late Summer Weekend! Talk next week!
With hindsight available as our measuring stick, it appears that sometime between March and April earlier this year things across the country really began to return to some type of normal.
As noted in our blog at street-cents.com and in the prior newsletter TSA throughput a measurement of airport travel looks to possibly eclipse 2019 highs later this year.
Restaurants began opening, some earlier and some much later, depending on the geographic location with patrons welcoming their reopening.
Uncertainty remains on the remote versus office environment. Most think the new normal will not be a complete office environment, but some blend of remote since it is readily acceptable and well tested.
Inflation, Here to Stay or Transitory?
As discussed in detail in our latest Q 3 2021 Newsletter, the most prevalent debate at this moment among market participants is the topic of inflation and it’s staying power, or just transitioning through. The importance of this subject is directly related to the FOMC, chaired by Jerome Powell and the timing of his reduced stimulus. All eyes are on the inflation debate and the timing of the decrease in stimulus and will be sensitive to timing changes.
Not surprisingly economic numbers roared as they met favorable comparisons from last year, but in very recent days, have given the appearance of a return to normalcy already, decreasing concerns of longer-term inflation.
Capital Markets being forward looking are now trying to see what is around the next corner. As earnings continue to return to normal, valuations are finally beginning to be decreased from extremely stretched proportions and as long as earnings outpace returns a continuation of this should occur.
Time is really our friend, and once again the good news is, this will all play out in quarters rather than years. Things can certainly change quickly, and it is not a time to swing for the fences, which we never do!
Have a terrific summer and talk to you at the beginning of fall.
Each year, excluding last year, we tackle a technology improvement.
About a half a dozen years ago after too much coffee at a vendor related event on the West Coast yours truly came home with multiple technology improvements (New Vault, New Web site just to name a few) all at once, which turned out to be a hard lesson learned, and the team was not happy…..make darn sure the project is not too big!
New Server and Email System
In a little over a week after reviewing all of our alternatives we have decided to upgrade our server and move our cloud-based email system to a new platform.
Our IT folks have already started the process of mirroring our old server to our new one and are readying the staging of the email.
We are assured this will go without a hitch; we hope to not hear the dreaded words we have heard before …
“Wow I have not seen this before!”
The good news is we only have this project and not multiple projects as well as the hard-earned lesson of overcast caffeinated excitement.
Hopefully just steps forward and not back to go forward….
But that is a week or so away and this is a Friday almost dead middle of the summer.
Enjoy your day and your weekend …. Maybe even a little time off if the shoe fits!
Murphy’s law being applied, the form just arrived last week….about two weeks after our post…..
Reason for receipt:
Rollover of a 401k or the like to an IRA – Most frequent
Contribution to an IRA
Contribution to a SEP
One of the most confusing parts of this form is that even though you may have made a qualified contribution for a prior year i.e. 2020, if you made that contribution in 2021, depending on the type of contribution the Form 5498 MAY show your contribution in year 2021.
Capital Market Comments
Inflation or No Inflation
In this part two post, “The Smartest Guys in the Room” post we discussed via interest rate futures graphs the movement after FOMC dot plot adjustments and the interest rate markets….
This is an updated Graph of the 2 year US Treasury, which is holding lower, (higher yield) possibly due to faster expected rate increases!
This is the ultra long 30 Year Treasury, which continues to trend higher (lower Yield) possible pricing less inflation from the above mentioned expected shorter term rate increases!
Ok…that’s a wrap for the June review…. Hello July!
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial advisor prior to investing!
The is the vocal portion of J.K. Financial, Inc. a Dallas Texas Based Fee Only Total Wealth Financial Planning Firm. Founded by John Kvale, a Dallas Texas Fee only Financial Planner and Total Wealth Manager.