Maybe an over crow of the Inverted Yield curve … but take a look at it’s predictive nature for a recession – darkened areas are recessions:
In case (very likely) you are looking at this post on your cell … at the far right of the above chart, the line dips below zero – this means that that 90 day FOMC/rate is higher than the 10 year treasury – YEP that’s inverted and as far as we can see … a predictor of a recession –
DON’T JUMP YET!
Recessions come in all forms, and by definition is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP (Gross Domestic Production) –
Remember how slow our recovery has been? This is that last 70 years of expansions, the weakly line on the lower right is our current – yea, its longer, but slower and weaker than all of the others, maybe even the “Runt” recovery compared to all the others …. from our Friends and JPMorgan as of 9-1-19!
Can a car that is going slow, really crash hard? Hmmmm…
All of this has also created an opportunity — tease, tease, tease….
Have a Great Friday, talk to you next week!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP