Category Archives: FOMC

Q 3 Quarterly Review Cover Letter

A True Yogi Berra saying may be fitting now – It’s like déjà vu all over again!”

Tariffs and Trade War Talks Continue

While the tariff banter seems relentless and every day changing, leading to Capital Market bipolar movements, one day irrational exuberance, and the next day irrationally depressed, as mentioned in our Q4 Newsletter, tariff talk has been going on for decades. With today’s constant bombardment of immediate news stories and short clips it seems, present party included, to be constant and all encompassing. The reality is this likely will work itself out, just as seen in the graph in the newsletter. Our bet is once the tariff talk turns into tariff agreements, we will see market relief and higher overall interest rates. For now, there’s no doubt that the tariff talk is slowing the global economy and there is no envy for public company managers trying to navigate the possible changes that occur on a day by day basis, making it very tough to stock inventory and make purchases.

Treasury Rates- Interest rate cycle

Given the afore mentioned Tariff Talk, FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by chief Jerome Powell and a company have embarked on a lowering of rates, twice to be exact, but only two .25 basis points each, in an attempt to help ease interest rate burdens and spur the economy. While not huge fans of the lowering of rates at this time due to gun powder needs at a future, when the inevitable recession occurs, at this time it appears we are on an interest rate decrease path, a complete 180° turn from just one year ago, when reserve officials were raising. If there is an agreement in Tariff talk, lowering of rates would likely stop, and we might even hear talks of raising, making for an interesting rate cycle. Time will tell.

Taxes or the savings of taxes paid

As we head into the final quarter of the year it’s time to make sure we’ve done all we can do for this years’ , especially items that have no look back features. As also mentioned in our Q4 newsletter, be sure to max those 401(k)s, contribute or distribute from 529‘s, complete Required Minimum Distributions (RMD’s) and make sure those charitable giving are complete this year, as all of these items have a hard stop year-end deadline.

Have a great day and start to fall!

Sincerely,

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Enclosure 2019 Report

Q 4 2019 Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 4 2019 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click Here for direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going!

Q 4 2019 Newsletter

Click for PDF/printable version of Newsletter

 

And here is your review!

Is it Time to Refinance?

With Mortgage rates moving lower, we discuss the major items to think of when refinancing your Mortgage.

Our most clever point is we like to have an 18 month payback for the costs when refinancing… this serves as a good barometer on when to refinance, irrespective of the size of your Mortgage.

 

30 Year US Avg Mortgage Rate

 

Tariff Talk

It’s been going on for a long time

Trade Wars AKA Tariff talks have been around for a long time. This is not our first rodeo… notice how trade has been more efficient over time!

 

us-trade-wars-history Cropped

End of Year Tax Reminders

While there are a lot of reach back tax items i.e. Things we can do next year for this years taxes… there are many that have a firm year end deadline-

  • RMD – Required Minimum Distributions
  • Company Related Retirement plans i.e. 401k
  • Charitable Donations
  • 529 and other education programs

We hope you enjoy … talk to you in ….. 2020 WOOOW !!!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

September 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our September 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

BREAK IN :

November 14th from 6:30 to 9 PM – Perot Museum – For the Evening

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

September – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

RMD Season is here – Is your DOB between 7-1-48 to 6-30-49 ?

In this post, we reminded all of those with the unique option of deferring that first RMD an extra year on the perils of the double income from that deferral decision…..

Defer at your own risk and make sure you will not jump a tax bracket by doing so!

Mortgage Rate Update – Time to Refinance?

Mortgage rates (the drop there of – in rates) caught our attention and in this post, we reminded of eleven (just counted them – was surprised so many) items to think of when/if you should refinance – its a big decision and there are many variables,  if you didn’t catch the post and have been in your loan for a few years, be sure to take a look … another reminder will also make its way to you in the Q 4 2019 Newsletter –

30 Year US Avg Mortgage Rate

 

Capital Market Comments –

Inverted Yield Curve Update

In this post, early in the month we reviewed the definitely inverted yield curve…. and spoke to this being one of the slowest recoveries on record…. just after our post, the yield curve did normalize on positive trade talks…. Look for more details in the coming Q 4 2019 Newsletter-

9-3-19 three month less 10 year fred graph

FED Lowers Again, but only by .25%

Jerome Powell Chief of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) lowered rates by .25% to the 1.75 to 2.00% range, which will directly effect our overnight money, such as checking accounts and money markets…

Their fear is the prior mentioned Tariff saber rattling causing an extended slowdown….

We prefer they save that gunpowder for a real fire, but just pouring a small bit of gasoline on the coals is ok for now!

FOMC Rate now

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of October!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

FED lowers again …. but only (.25%) – Longer Term View – Friday

Last Wednesday the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell and attended by Dallas’ own Robert Kaplan, lowered rates by .25% to 1.75 to 2.00% Range…

FOMC Lowers rates once again

With a ton of information coming at you (Newsletter is full of interest rate talk) we will keep this short…

The FOMC lowered rates a second time, making for an unofficial change in this cycle from raising to lowering of rates….

FOMC Rate now

While the chart above may seem extreme … let’s look longer term….

FOMC MAX RAte

It’s ok… a .25% move is not that much, but we really would like room to lower when the inevitable recession comes…. who knows, if the tariff talks get fixed, raising of rates may be in the cards…. wouldn’t that be an interesting turn of events… hand tight, we have your back!

Today is a wet Friday, enjoy your weekend and grab that umbrella.

Have a Great “Interesting Rate Cycle” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Inverted Yield Curve Update … Current Expansion Speed Reminder … An Opportunity Created ? …

Maybe an over crow of the Inverted Yield curve … but take a look at it’s predictive nature for a recession – darkened areas are recessions:

9-3-19 three month less 10 year fred graph

In case (very likely) you are looking at this post on your cell … at the far right of the above chart, the line dips below zero – this means that that 90 day FOMC/rate is higher than the 10 year treasury – YEP that’s inverted and as far as we can see …  a predictor of a recession –

DON’T JUMP YET!

Recessions come in all forms, and by definition is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP (Gross Domestic Production) –

Remember how slow our recovery has been? This is that last 70 years of expansions, the weakly line on the lower right is our current – yea, its longer, but slower and weaker than all of the others, maybe even the “Runt” recovery compared to all the others …. from our Friends and JPMorgan as of 9-1-19!

9-1-19 last 70 Years of Expansion - JPMorgan

Can a car that is going slow, really crash hard? Hmmmm…

All of this has also created an opportunity — tease, tease, tease….

Have a Great Friday, talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

August 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale (With Blooper at end of Video)

Hello and Welcome to our August 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

August – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Three Most Important Social Security Posts SO FAR

As of this review we have one more unique age related Social Security Post to come, but the three most important posts so far are as follows:

Living Spousal Benefits

Deceased Spousal Benefits

Divorced Spousal Benefits 

Click each link for the actual post…. each post has a couple of minute discussion from Social Security Expert Tom Clark — THESE ARE IMPORTANT AND COMPLICATED-  so take your time!

Call Spam Protection Update

In this second follow up post due to demand, comments and questions we further discuss options for additional protection, depending on the major service provider….

Capital Market Comments –

Tariff Talk Jitters

Depending on the day and the headline, Capital Market Participants in true bipolar fashion seem to either cheer with reckless abandonment and buy buy buy or head for the exits and sell sell sell….

Just by chance it was nice to run across a wonderful historical chart, here in this post, showing this Tariff talk is far from the first time…. maybe for some of us, but in reality we have been dealing with this for decades….(Century)

us-trade-wars-history Cropped

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of September!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Fed Walked the Tight Rope Perfectly – Preview of New Scammers You Need to be Aware – Friday

On Wednesday July 31, 2019 the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell and attended by our own Dallas based Robert Kaplan, did something they have not done in over 10 years…. LOWER RATES.

8-1-19 FOMC FED funds rate

While we crowed ‘Not Necessary” they walked a great tight rope…

In this post announcement article…. and  somewhat funny CNBC article, over a dozen … so called “Expert” firms completely disagree in all directions on what the Fed will do next!

PERFECT!

With disagreement on what they will do next, no expectation will be ….. well … EXPECTED!

If I were a Fed official, that is exactly the way you want it … freedom to stay put, lower or raise without fussy Market Participants all weighing in on the same side of the fence.

They also stopped the winding down (selling reserves back to the market) of balance sheet reduction, which was a net tightening.

8-1-19 Total Bank Assets

So let’s say they are in neutral now and have created the freedom to drive wherever they want! Nice..

Sorry we got a bit deep on this, this week, but we felt it important and wanted to keep you in the know!

Speaking of in the know – We have collected a few new examples of scamming that we will bring to your attention next week – One so clever it’s hard to believe!

Ahhh…but it is a Friday….

Care to guess what today and next week brings?

tennis-2042723__340

Last looong, big tournament of the summer…..

Thanks goodness for a new unlimited Cell plan and neat technology … Will be in touch!

Have a GREAT Friday/Weekend Summer day(s)!

John A. Kvale, CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents