Just by chance, recently he had a two hour podcast interview on Bloomberg’s Masters in Business.
Combining these two lengthy events, the following themes and forecasts (yep we will code this forecasts for future reference here in our digital diary) resonated:
- Net real returns on stocks, netted out after inflation are about 6.5% over the long term – (Ok by us)
- Siegel thinks the next 3-5 years will be a slightly lower 5-5.5% – again net of inflation
- Inflation will not rise to the 2% target of the Federal Reserve (FED) due to deflationary forces – (We disagree)
- QE (Quantitative easing) helped during the 07-09 crisis but has overstayed it’s welcome (We agree)
- Emerging Markets (Young international country stocks) are poised to do much better over the next 5-10 years than many if not all capital markets (We 100% agree) – the trouble is when will they will finally get their feet under them from a timing standpoint according to Siegel (We totally agree again)
- Increased regulations such as Dodd Frank have undermined productivity, leading to lower wage growth, investment and over all GDP (Ahh…this is so hard to measure, but seems like too much affect to us- we disagree)
- Jeremy mentioned three times he was concerned with deflation over the next 1-2 years (Nah!)
We threw our thoughts in too … just for fun, and to also be held accountable.
We will check back in the future to see who got it correct !
Have a Great Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225