Category Archives: Forecast

AI – Artificial Intelligence to take over the World? Nah….

The possibilities seem endless.

An 18 wheeler that can drive across the country at night with less traffic and no human to interfere!

No parking lots, as all needed cars could be used as needed and no unnecessary excess – land savings, energy saving and environmental savings!

A robot does the job, endlessly with no rest.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Jets cooled

In this recent neat Wharton School Panel Review Report  a lot of cold water is tossed on some of the possibilities …. (Wharton is our friend as occasional co-host of live Sirius Radio Your Money, with Kent Smetters)

But First a few recent headlines!

CNBC 7-19-17 “Half of American Jobs are at risk from automation, new study suggests

The Guardian 9-13-15 “Self driving cars: From 2020 you will be permanent back seat driver

Not so Fast on AI – Artificial Intelligence Taking Over the WorldRobot - man-320276__340!

 

On Self Driving Cars

From the Wharton Panel Review.

Vijay Kumar, dean of engineering at University of Pennsylvania (very credible position for opinion)

“It turns out that so much of what appears in mainstream media about self-driving cars being just around the corner is very much overstated …”

“In other words, many optimistic articles about autonomous vehicles overlook the fact that it will take many years to get enough data to make fully self-driving cars work at a large scale — not just a couple of years.”

“A fundamental problem is that most observers do not realize just how vast an amount of data is needed to operate in the physical world — ever-increasing amounts, or, as Kumar calls it — “exponential” amounts”

So this makes sense to us … the last few incremental steps for this to actually occur may be MUCH greater than many think, it’s just harder to get the last 100% completely automated vehicle.

Calling Elon Musk Out

Again from Professor Kumar …

“Elon Musk will also tell you that batteries are improving and getting better and better. Actually, it’s the same battery that existed five or 10 years ago.” What is different is that batteries have become smaller and less expensive, “because more of us are buying batteries. But fundamentally it’s the same thing.”

There sure seems to be a lot of confusion on this subject… some say the batteries are getting better, but few can prove it at this point…

Machines still have a long way to go

“In the near future, no one needs to worry because machines are pretty dumb….” Kumar said. As an example, Fung (Pascale Fung, a professor of electronic and computer engineering at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) explained that she could make a robot today capable of doing some simple household chores, but, “it’s still cheaper for me to do it, or to teach my kids or my husband to do it. So, for the near future there are tons of jobs where it would be too expensive to replace them with machines. Fifty to 100 years from now, that’s likely to change, just as today’s world is different from 50 years ago.”

We find this extremely interesting, greatly enjoy the views and encourage you to read the article….

The Total Opposite View

In February of 2015 we had the opportunity to listen to Peter Diamandis and wrote a report on his findings here

He said two years ago, that computers would be faster/smarter than humans in eight years .. here is the chart from the report we wrote…

Computer Power Expanding

Someone is wrong!

Differing opinions are great!

Likely somewhere between 6 years and 100 … Ok , know its wide, but that’s the extreme from both views !

Careful what you believe!!!

Hope you enjoyed!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

Earnings Review … aka 90 day Treadmill … Revenue the missing link, found?

As mentioned Friday, earnings are the key drivers to asset growth and appreciation.  While we do not want to get into the weeds too much on this, continued growth bodes well for continued market appreciation… and maybe growth into the Frothy valuations.. From our fantastic friends at Factset.

Earnings Growth for the Immediate Quarter Looks Great

While a very short term time frame, (3-5 years is our normal time frame) this 90 day treadmill aka earning season chart shows the move upward in expected earnings growth rate. Continued movement at this rate would certainly help us grow into the current valuations.

 

8-4-17 Factset Earnings Growth Q217

Nice move!

EPS- Earnings Per Share

Ok, sure the EPS Earnings Per Share- solid line is moving down as time has passed for this quarter, BUT, the scale is very narrow and the amount of lowered expected EPS growth is only slightly less…

8-4-17 Factset Change in Q317 eps

Before looking too much into this, the lower line is a tiny move due to the frame size!

Revenue/Sales Growth FINALLY?

Be it the Great Recession lingering effects, demographics, economics, world growth or technological advances, Sales or Revenue has been missing during this economic recovery. In reviewing this chart, Energy, bouncing back from a much lower price just a year ago is making up much of the sales increase, however other sectors are chiming in too. Could this FINALLY be the sales increases we have all been waiting for? Compliments to all company managers for cutting expenses in order to maintain profitability, however there are only so many cuts that can be made. If sales increases continue, this would provide much needed breathing room for managers.

8-4-17 Factset Rev Growth 2017

Sales growth has been absent this recovery, making for HUGE challenges for corporate managers

 

Time will tell! So far its looking good!

Have a Great “Growth in Earnings” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

 

 

Shrinking the Balance Sheet Explained, Bulking and Lowering too

Last Wednesday Janet Yellen, FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) chairperson released comments on their duty as Federal Reserve members but also introduced a term that may be new to many.

“Shrinking the Balance Sheet”

What is the Balance Sheet

Much to the happiness of all those bookkeeper, accountants, CPA’s and the like, present party included, entries must balance.  Even the US Government as huge as it is, runs by the old adage

Assets = Liabilities + Equity

A basic accounting principal, that MUST always work…

If a change is made, it must be counted somewhere else, even on the USA’s balance sheet.

Bulking up the Balance Sheet

 

Post “Great Recession of 07-09” FOMC members smartly embarked on a successful but unknown effort at the time, of infusing banks and capital markets with Greenbacks aka $ Dollars!

The Federal Reserve led by FOMC members, with the click of a button created money in their checking account and created a contra account for balancing purposes then went out to capital markets and bought bought bought in HUGE quantities various capital instruments, but for the most part US Bonds of all maturities.

Their goal, again unchartered territory at the time was to infuse money into the system and also lower interest rates.

By  purchasing large quantities of instruments the FOMC were putting dollars directly into the system … there were other programs as well, but for the sake of simplicity, their buys pushed money into, at the time, a much needed financial system.

The numbers of this chart are not as important as the line and dates.

img_0874

As the FOMC clicked and bought and clicked and bought again in keeping their books “Balanced” the Federal Reserve Bank Assets Grew and Grew.

Finally the Sizzle, Shrinking the Balance Sheet

Take a peek at the far right of the line in the chart… Come on now you can do it …. this is important, and you have come this far …

What do you see? It’s flat lining….

Since most of the FOMC purchases were bonds of various types, and bonds mature, that line should begin to decrease. The FOMC holds such a huge portfolio of bonds, maturity occurs almost constantly.

Until now, the FOMC has re-invested or repurchased maturing bonds with new bonds, thereby holding that line flat. Yellen and crew are now signaling they may NOT re-invest those maturing bonds, which would lead to a VERY SLOW decline in the FOMC balance sheet or a …

“Shrinking of the Balance Sheet”

These words have been carefully chosen. Eventually the FOMC may actually sell their bonds back into the capital markets, reversing the stimulus applied in the “Great Recession of 07-09” more quickly. That would not be called “Shrinking” that would be called lowering, reducing, or something similar, look for this type of cryptic rhetoric in the future …. for now, shrinking simply means letting the maturing bonds mature and NOT re-investing … Shrinking the Balance Sheet !

There you have it, this post turned longer than expected, but the background should have made for a clearer picture … if you made it this far, pat yourself on the back… You now know the current “Shrinking” step along with likely future announcements by the FOMC and committee members!

Have a Great “Deciphering Cryptic FOMC Rhetoric” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

Forecasts from Canadian Economist Derek Burleton … Trump Policy, US Economy, Rates, US Dollar and Oil Prices

Earlier this month at our “Out West” conference where “The Brain” crashed the party in  32 minutes, we had the opportunity to listen to famed Canadian economist, Derek Burleton.

We greatly enjoy hearing from stately folks outside the borders of the US for several reasons …

  • What exactly do people in their geographic area think of the situation?
  • Receiving differing media reports may lead to a totally different and valuable views.
  • Countries with TOTALLY different governments may have clarity that we may take for granted.

Derek Burleton Forecasts20170202_211041438_ios

Trump policies will likely not make major changes to the economy. Burleton likens economies to air craft carriers that are very hard to turn and only slightly changed by policy.

Given the above fact, in the short term, Burleton thinks the capital markets could be due for disappointment, as the markets may be pricing in too much optimism currently.

Rates will rise twice in 2017 and again in 2018. Interestingly the fed has said three times this year and recently are saying even more lately….

US Dollar and Oil are both at near term (12 month) highs.

We like the forecasts as a vote of calmness and reasonable expectations. Thanks Derek… we will be watching as this unfolds.

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Repatriation/Tax Holiday of Foreign funds? Yes or No

In our continued crossover theme from our Out West Conference, this item was discovered while reviewing the tons of notes taken and prepping for more detailed articles in the coming Newsletter. Nice find!

As a reminder, a crossover occurs, in our minds, when several experts unknowingly say, predict, or comment on the same event or action. We like the chances of such an event when multiple parties agree, and in this case, we even chime in too.

Repatriation of Foreign money held hostage by US companies

Call it a tax holiday, repatriation or whatever term you may like, our experts agreed totally that allowing US companies to bring money back into the US would be terrific idea. Currently, companies have been strangled by a double tax hit if they bring “Already Taxed once” foreign earnings back into the US.20170202_165920762_ios

David Cameron, the famed former Prime Minister/President of Britain “It’s senseless to hold hostage US company money overseas!” He suggested a low tax of 6-8% to allow funds to be brought back into the US and said it would be a nice tail wind.

Derek Burleton, expert Canadian economist “US Corporate tax rates are a big mess and need to be fixed. Allowing funds back into the US from multinational firms is a great idea and would help the economy!”

We could not agree more.

  1. There will be uses of funds that not all agree are good.
  2. The spirit of free trade and borders is being hampered in our opinion by double taxing foreign earnings re-entry.
  3. The World is a MUCH smaller place.
  4. Free flow of capital will eventually find it’s best use, artificially hampering this can cause inefficiencies.

Have a great “Tax Repatriation” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com

Lunch with Kyle Bass…Forecasts – Oil, China, Interest Rates… We will review in the future!

At one of the favorite events of the year, Three Part Investor Ideas Conference where over 70 publicly traded companies present in rapid fire succession…. and about 300 professionals in the investment community, present party included, listened to Kyle Bass speak for an hour over lunch.

As we give thanks later this week, I will speak to this conference and a special memory from last years event to be thankful

Who is Kyle Bass11-15-16-kyle-bass

Famed hedge fund manager who correctly bet on the real estate bubble of 07-09. Resident and office in Dallas Texas. Talk about timing.. Kyle just happened to open his hedge fund in 2006… good start right out of the gate.

The best thing about Kyle is he is not afraid to speak his mind and tell folks what he thinks… Can you feel the forecasts coming?

We will code this post forecast and look back in a year of so and see how they did!

Here are the biggies:

Oil – Opec reaches a deal and oil rises and stays in the mid 50’s to low 60’s by early to mid 2017. As an add on, Bass was positive about the US and the ability for the US to pump oil domestically along with the positive economic influences that may seep into the domestic economy.

Rates – Kyle is thoroughly convinced rates across the board are WAY too low and will rise, possibly gradually or maybe faster over the next several years. Foreign negative interest rate bonds are in his cross hairs as unsustainably low and silly in his opinion. Domestic interest rates should be much higher according to Bass and will march that way, with numerous short term rate increases on the horizon, again according to Bass. The Taylor Rule, an economic ruler that mixes growth and rates to come to a normal interest rate level was mentioned by Bass; According to the rule rates should be MUCH higher.

China Financial System Problem — The China BANKING SYSTEM has problems, but China does not explode…. just for entertainment purposes we clipped a google search showing a much different picture of Kyle’s thoughts… careful what you read…..

img_0629

 

So Bass, thinks the currency will devaluated by at least 20% over the next several years and  strongly thinks at least 10% over the coming year… ahhh a super easy to follow forecast…

Again, a far cry from the end of the world headlines you see from our google search…

Thanks Kyle…we will check back at a later time to see how these forecast went!

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

 

Start of the Week Good Economic Data

Let’s start this week out with a review of  some good economic numbers to fluff us all up as we start this wonderful week !

Latest Economic Numbers

Unemployment Claims down

Jobs, jobs jobs… With jobs, a happier consumer may help push the Economy forward.

10-14-16-employment-numbers

Nice trend….let’s say it is down… which is great as these are Unemployment claims.

Expected End of the Year Sales

The National Retail Federation publishes an annual forecast each year for the big enchilada end of the year sales. Recall, Black Friday was coined because many institutions, in the old days, turned their first profit “Black”  the day after Thanksgiving aka Black Friday.

In their most recent annual end of the year forecast the NRF expects nice growth…

10-3-16-nrf-2016-eoy-sales-forecast

ANOTHER nice trend… looks good, on the high end of recent year over year growth!

Bank Lending Picks Up – Not Kidding

This super chart from Scott Grannis shows banks are beginning to lend as the far right end of the chart shows Excess Bank Reserves peeling off into our economy !

10-12-16-excess-reserves-grannis-fed-reserve

All in all, some really good news for a cheerie good Monday and start of your week !

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com