Category Archives: Forecast

Robert Kaplan Dallas FOMC President Town Hall Analysis and Update, New York President Williams Chimes in, Wall Street Journal’s Favorite Fed Reporter Too – Taper Transition to Begin

While not sure why all Federal Reserve Chairs do not do this type of event … there are an even dozen Fed Banks scattered across the country for roots in various geographic areas, we are very happy our local favorite, Dallas’s own Federal Reserve Bank President, Robert Kaplan has started his own town hall event.

Think this is our third or fourth attendance, with the first as mentioned here, becoming an accidental question…

Incidentally at this event, the first three questions were from acquaintances… Great Minds I guess!

Another Robert Kaplan Town Hall Update New York Fed Williams Chimes in

The most important item mentioned in this town hall was that Kaplan supports a taper of the 120 billion monthly purchases of Mortgage and Treasury bonds as soon as October, with an announcement in two weeks at the September 22, 2021 Fed meeting.

Luckily with the delay of the weekend to produce this full post, New York Federal Reserve (debatably the most powerful bank) Chair John C. Williams in a speech via video conference to St. Lawrence University said the following:

“There has also been very good progress toward maximum employment, but I will want to see more improvement before I am ready to declare the test of substantial further progress being met. Assuming the economy continues to improve as I anticipate, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year. I will be carefully assessing the incoming data on the labor market and what it means for the economic outlook, as well as assessing risks such as the effects of the Delta variant.”

Wall Street Journal’s Go To Reporter Pens Friday Article

Then the following story hit the Wall Street Journal Friday, September 10, 2021 by the Fed’s favorite go to reporter, NIck Timiraos..

NIck runs with a November 2021 Taper Transition and a 15 Billion per meeting drop off from the current 120 Billion monthly purchase…

What to Watch – Longer Term Interest Rates, Markets Themselves

If this is true, and the FOMC does begin taper, we will need to keep a sharp eye on interest rates, especially the longer end i.e. 10 year treasury.

Near then end of 2018, the FOMC began lowering asset purchases AND raising rates at the same time… Markets protested with a sharp 20% drop, causing Fed members to reverse course.

Kaplan and other officials are reiterating that just because the Taper may begin, interest rate increases are not on the horizon yet.

Recall in our very recent Kyle Bass review, where Fed officials are known to carefully watch the Capital Market reaction to their comments. If as true as Bass thinks, Fed officials will be watching close!

Other Kaplan Notes from the Town Hall:

  • Delta hurting travel, and leisure, Dallas Fed US GDP estimate 6.5 down to 6 because of delta
  • Slow workers with Jobs, Aug jobs number not surprised Sept slower than expected, JOLTS showing work avail, fear of delta keeping away,
  • 3 mill folks left workforce since 2-20, 1.5 milion left for care of kids – matching problem work
  • Supply demand on materials,  PCE will be 4% PCE headline will be 2.6% 2022-
  • Economy recovering slow Q3 but still growing, 3% inflation 2021
  • Economic Fits and starts bc delta- vaccine, booster, masks help but
  • High frequency mobility data not falling, folks adapting and managing through
  • Business expect supply demand last longer than thought
  • Worker demand higher pay, higher absence, reluctant to come back to labor force
  • Mid to small business tougher time with employee—Larger Businesses more flexibility
  • Broadly all businesses raising prices and they will stick

Apologies for the length of this post … this was a combination Reporter, notes and collection of various data points…

A smooth transition is very important, and long desired by many in the investment community, buckle up and let’s see how it goes!

Have a Great “Smooth Taper Transition” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Kaplan Town Hall/Newsletter Preview Breaking News … Friday … Sports Begin …

Another Fantastic Kaplan (Dallas FOMC President) Town Hall

On Wednesday evening of this week, Robert Kaplan did another Town Hall …. Pretty sure this is our third or fourth to attend so there is some continuity working as we can hear changes, continued thoughts and just a general getting to know Kaplan…

The most BREAKIN NEWS from the talk, was Kaplan saying the following…

“If there are not major changes in the Economy before our next meeting on September 22, 2021, I will suggest taper is announced and it begins in October of 2021!”

This was a big (so soon) enough statement that we were surprised not to see any public media discuss yesterday….

We will dig into Kaplan’s comments next week in a deeper fashion and the possible outcomes should this statement come to fruition.

Newsletter in the Works

The Newsletter is coming right along, we have found some greater details from our Expectations Post Earlier in the Quarter, along with our candid comments…

On a personal note, if you ever want to know how fast a Quarter can go, do an all original Newsletter every 90 days… All Great, but really seems like we just completed the last one…. Time is flying I guess!

Friday

Ahhhh, it is a VERY late summer Friday heading closer to fall… Sports is getting into full force…


Enjoy your Friday and Weekend – Talk Next Week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Thoughts and Forecasts From Kyle Bass … Oil $100/Barrel By Year End 2021 ?

The summer garnered a new found passion towards Podcasts…. While we do our Monthly reviews and Newsletters in an Audio, Video, Podcast like format…. Most podcasts are an hour or longer, making for interesting deep dives into the discussion, especially if the person(s) talking are very intelligent in the specific material….

Hat tip JP for the shove in sharing your favorites…. I have taken the ball and run with it!

In another crossing with this interesting investor, Kyle Bass, on a paid podcast platform, specifically for professional investors…. we highlight Mr. Bass’ current thoughts…

Six years ago, we highlighted his thoughts here in our post and in reviewing his comments, his bets were very correct!

Forecasts and Future Expectations from Kyle Bass

Once again, like we did six years ago, in our public Diary of sorts, we outline Kyle’s thoughts for future reference …. so here we go:

  • The Federal Reserve will continue to support the markets with continued purchases.
  • Federal Reserve feels responsible for Capital Markets … i.e. Every Federal Reserve member has a Bloomberg Investment terminal on their desk and post public talks, Fed members go back to their office to check the markets reactions to their comments.
  • Much more inflation than actually as printed by CPI – (Consumer Price Index) Example of car price increases up 300% over last thirty years, but CPI auto costs increased 5% over that period.
  • Cost of Food increases may cause social inequity problems.
  • Oil hits $100 per barrel this year … due to mal investment over the last 7 years.
  • Short term interest rates not to go higher than 1.5% and long term (10 year) rates will not go higher than 2.5%. i.e. Bernanke Helicopter speech outlines the difficulty in raising rates a lot once they are at a lowered level for some time.
  • We push through the Delta Variant and there is a REAL re-opening effect that works its way through the economy (Hope this is correct!)

These were actually done in order of the Podcast (basically taking notes while listening) but the most interesting in our opinion are the last three points…

Marked as Forecast, which we have had a lot of lately…will review for accuracy in the future!

Have a Great “Kyle Bass” Forecasting Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Another New Economic Measuring Stick Care of DOT – Department of Transportation … Highway Miles Driven and Prior Year Comparisons …

My absolute first question was where the heck do they get this data from?

TSA – Which we have been monitoring for some time is easy …. Checkpoints!

Ah Ha …. This from the DOT FAQ

The TVT report is based on traffic data from the Highway Performance Monitoring System and on data submitted to the FHWA by State highway agencies throughout the entire U.S. The State highway agencies collect the data through permanent automatic traffic recorders (ATR) on public roadways.

TVT is the abbreviation for Traffic Volume Trends.

All Roads, Urban and Rural Comparison

All Roads:

Urban

Rural

Makes some sense after you think about it that Rural traffic has bounced back and is tracking almost back to normal…. BUT Urban areas, with workers still working from home, lagging!

Latest Kastle Back to Work Tracker Stubbornly stuck below 50% Across the Country

Another fun Economic related item to monitor moving forward!

Have a Great “DOT Road Traveling” Update!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Survey of Over 8000 Individual Investors Next 10 Year Investment Expectations – WRONG! – Natixis 2021 Survey

We recently ran across a very interesting survey. What caught our eye on this survey was the large number surveyed, 8550 individuals in over 24 countries, all with at least $100k of investments in Capital Markets.

The second item that caught our eyes, were some of the jaw dropping expectations of these investors. Thankfully, the survey is also given to professional investors and a neat comparison can easily be made!

Natixis Global Individual Investor Survey

Here in the 2021 Natixis Global Individual Investor Survey, some eye popping results caught our eye. As a side note there is a similar survey done with Institutional Survey as well.

The most recent survey found these collective individual investors expecting 13% returns over the next 10 years, ABOVE inflation….or a 14.5% total 10 year average!

We never make guarantee calls, as there are not any…. but we would find it EXTREMELY unlikely to meet these expectations. Not only that, but as you can see from the chart, the returns follow what we call “Rear View Mirror Forecasting” which is using the most recent past to forecast the future … rather than using true forecasting techniques.

Another concern arising from this information is with this expectation a possible under saving for the future and too low of risk expectations that may be inferred with these results.

Comparing the Individual versus the professional expectation of the next 10 years of returns, comes up with a very large variance.

Professional investors are expecting a much more reasonable 5.3% return. Clearly professionals are not using “Rear View Mirror Forecasting”

Individuals expect 13% over inflation for the next 10 years with Professionals expecting 5.3% – while we wish individuals are correct, it’s very unrealistic … Pro’s are likely much more accurate!

We will code this one Forecast and look back in 10 years to see who was closer! Yep a 10 year lookback….

Let the clock start ticking!

Have a Great “Individual versus Pros Expectation” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Reminder of Seemingly Odd Late Tax Statement – Form 5498 … FOMC Dot Plot Preview … Newsletter Update … Summer Friday YAY!

Just when we happily said goodbye to a very long tax season due to the various extensions provided by the IRS, in comes a seemingly odd late tax form.

Form 5498 Reminder

Form 5498 is headed to some of our mailboxes over the next two to four weeks, again due to various extensions in the IRS filing due date, here are some of the reasons why:

  • Rollover of a 401k or the like to an IRA – Most frequent
  • Contribution to an IRA
  • Contribution to a SEP

One of the most confusing parts of this form is that even though you may have made a qualified contribution for a prior year i.e. 2020, if you made that contribution in 2021, depending on the type of contribution the Form 5498 MAY show your contribution in year 2021.

Not to worry, the IRS knows there are frequently a seemingly miss match of years and accounts for this.

Here is the IRS information if you need further clarity.

FOMC Statement and Dot Plot Preview

Earlier this week the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell, released their Economic analysis update along with a interview after a pre-prepared reading by Powell himself.  The release, which also included the “dot plot”, which is an anonymous estimate by all the reserve members, voting and non voting on where they think the economy, is carefully scrutinized by all in the investment community.

We will take a deeper dive next week as there were some interesting cross currents post announcement and interview .. even with summer doldrums dragging along!

Newsletter Update

We are happily putting the final touches on the Newsletter, some of which partial pieces have been reviewed here, on our Blog, but with a longer Newsletter form we go into greater detail in our subject matters that we hope you will enjoy reading as much as we enjoyed creating.

Friday

Ahhhh…. But today is a Friday, for those that have been following… the rain has left us, the steam is subsiding from an abnormally fast early summer, the heat wave is reminding us why there is a saying in Texas:

“If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few it certainly will change!”

Have a great weekend, don’t forget to spend time with those special in your life and we will talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Memorial Day Weekend, School’s Out, Office Hours, TSA Throughput Update WOW! , The Ark of Texas

We are happy to give honor to all those who server in the military and especially those fallen during their service. You give us the ability to live our life safe, and proudly…

Memorial Day

Thank you for your service!

Memorial Day Honored

Memorial Day is honored on Monday May 31 2021

Banks, Government offices, Capital Markets and our office will be closed as well

School Schedule – Done Tomorrow – Out of Office Friday

For the first time ever for my gang and likely for the rest of the office, all of our kids are out by tomorrow, mid day at the latest!

With a half day on Thursday heading into the honored weekend, we are planning on being out of the office on Friday and will only be very lightly tethered.

TSA Throughput Update – For Those Flyers

Earlier this week, a nice comment email from a Clemente at www.Fligence.com came through noting the work we had done on TSA Throughput….

After a few exchanged emails, she allowed us to reproduce her company TSA throughput information here with credits of course….

We encourage those interested and especially those that are starting to travel again to go to her company website as you can drill down to your specific airport for latest TSA numbers, daily and even hourly for your travel planning purposes–fligence.com

Timely for those that may be traveling via air this week … with air support personal likely still at low capacity, we are getting closer to full bookings (seems unbelievable from a year ago!)

Lighter Blue 2021 line is their Future Estimates

Ark of Texas

As mentioned frequently, we are an outside family…. actually everyone at our firm are outside people and their families too!

For those 1000 or so followers in other places of the country, there is some weird storm system that is STUCK over Texas.

No Sun….

Lot’s of Rain…

Grrrrrr…….

Lemon Aid from Lemons …. Grass is growing if it does not float away to your neighbors yard!

Have a Great Rest of the Week, and Memorial Day – Talk Next Week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Robert Kaplan Update – Round Table State of Economy – “Sooner Rather than Later!”

One of our favorite Federal Reserve Presidents Dallas’s own Robert Kaplan had another Round Table discussion the most recent Monday night….

Those with great memories may recall my fiasco when listening to his Round Table discussions and accidentally raising my hand for a live question…. good news, avoided that this time! haha

Elephant in the Room – Inflation or Not?

While leading with stats and updates, the review order has been changed due to the very end of the discussion and importance…

Recalling from the Mauldin SIC conference of the last two weeks and and once again here we are…. Elephant topic for Kaplan – Inflation or Not?

(Have you ever been on a call or virtual visit like this and wondered who else is on? – Am I wasting my time here? Or is this a good use of the late evening? – See callers below for answer!)

Live Callers

After about four or five live callers, the moderator announce, “Our next caller is Byron Wien!” – WHAT!

Wien is an 88 year old veteran of the Capital Markets and currently Vice Chair of Blackstone the largest money manager in the US!

What is he doing listening to a Dallas Reserve President at this time of the night – he is one hour later!

In a no nonsense, direct question, Wien asks or more insists “There is inflation and it is coming faster than officials think! What are you guys going to do?”

Kaplan answers directly that he thinks tapering monthly purchases along with increasing of rates should come “Sooner Than Later!”

This statement was repeated more than any other statement and even at one juncture, Kaplan stated “I said this in March and have seen nothing to change my view!” Sooner Rather than Later!

Kaplan goes on to say ” It is better to let off the accelerator and coast and possibly tap the brakes rather than staying on the accelerator and having to jam the brakes quickly!” We Agree!

Last up from the live call ins :

Robert Sakowitz – Concerns about shipping and port trouble- his personal example of $2600 pod now costing him $8000- (Has to be passed on somewhere? right?)

Based on our research and his question, most likely a multi generational retail magnate!

Both calls were concerning inflation, with several others concerned the FED has stayed to long and their mandate has been met!

Interesting Stats from Kaplan

2 million worker age 55 and over retired since Covid, dropping a valuable portion of the workforce

1.5 million women left workforce to care for children- Wow !

Texas and the surrounding Dallas Fed Area High School Superintendents on average graduate 85% of seniors and now only 60% – creating a shortage of skilled workers –

Taper and Policy – How can FED withdraw without market disruption? SLOOOOWLY

Learned from 07-09 – Telegraph in advance and give market time to absorb

What signals will use for taper – FOMC in Dec of 2020 agree that substantial further progress (Kaplan believes this statement is key and is very open to be used and interpreted many ways)

Input supply demand imbalances – metals, food, wages, PCE of April – June – elevated levels – uncertain of how long will persist

Believe inflation run at 2% and anchored there-

11 million barrels of Oil last year, thinks can only to to 11.25 million per day- fossil fuel here for decades longer, maybe not at the same level as prior but will not go away

Great Final Question from the Moderator

What Keeps Me Up at Night? (Recall same exact question of Buffet at annual meeting and the EXACT same answer)

“No textbook for this recovery, this is unlike any other recovery we have ever had- no prior example – We must manage the risk be nimble if possible !”

There you have it… Local Dallas Fed President echoing a lot of things we have been hearing, spoken of and discussed here!

Good News – Time will Tell and it will not be a long time (quarters, not decades)

Have a Great “Kaplan Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Make it to Year 2030 and You will Likely Live Over Age 100 – From Mauldin SIC Conference

As noted with our excited post last week, we are once again in the throws of the John Mauldin SIC – Strategic Investment Conference.

So far this years most ear catching moment has nothing to do with finance but comes from two Doctors who are repeat speakers from last year to give the group a Covid related update.

Their predictions last year (think at a time where a lot of uncertainty abounded) were spot on and almost unbelievable accuracy. So accurate they hardly needed to update their presentation.

Knowing we teased you with the headline, stay with us please … and take a quick moment to review these two Doctors backgrounds/Credibility! – Pretty Awesome stuff!

These guys are not show boaters!

So maybe not Dr. Culver’s best look … think super smart professor we have all had in our life!

Make it to 2030 and You will Likely Live Over Age 100

My mouth almost dropped when I heard these two stately Doctors utter the words above.

There is a super cool chart that the Doctors had in their slide deck, and of course it is the ONLY slide that had “Not for Reproduction” …. so in honoring their request … here is a recreated slide from their predictions.

Since 1850 average mortality has increase 2.5 years every ten years.

From 2020 to 2030 the Doctors believe we will see an increase age expectancy of 30 years, yep THIRTY!

That is the huge jump in the chart on the very far right upper expected mortality age 112 !

Much of this is due to the expected pull forward of knowledge earned from Covid and the various Vaccines.

The Doctors repeatedly mentioned that they expect a youthful elder years as well, not just extended longevity!

Recommended Life Style and Personal Health Monitoring

Here is a quick Legend for the abbreviations:

  • Blood Pressure
  • Body Mass Index
  • Fasting Blood Sugar
  • Cholesterol
  • No Tobacco
  • Stress Management – VERY INTERESTING! Newly added by the Doctors

For the record, those are not low hurdles using my own situation as an example!

Look for a more detailed review of this in the coming Newsletter!

Have a Great “Make it to 2030, live to over 100” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Oracle of Omaha …. Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting … Finally Made it Through … Thoughts

Each year for the last five (which is about when they began streaming the meetings), I am always enthusiastic about listening to the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, which prior to social distancing was more like a sporting event than a shareholder meeting.

Oh, for those that may be wondering, Berkshire Hathaway is headed by Warren Buffett age 90 (not Jimmy – being silly here) and Charlie Munger age 98. The name stems from a bankrupt textile company turned massive conglomerate filled with Insurance Companies (Geico) Railroads, and home builders (largest manufactured home builder in US) just to name a few.

Back to the meeting… Buffett honestly says (and it is true) the actual meeting is BOORING and Buffett even discourages folks to listen to the formal section, BUT there is an opening ceremony of such where Buffett has a 5-15 minute planned discussion followed by 3-3.5 hours of Q and A, most of which is known, but a few are sent in live and carefully reviewed and presented by Becky Quick of CNBC.

Finally A Way To Get Through The Meeting

So the last five years were a terrible failure as the attention span drifted before the entire meeting could be consumed…. Hey these guys are 90 and 98 and move at their own pace, but a wealth of VERY interesting opinions as well as knowledge.

This year a freak accidental trial was successful and made for a very enjoyable meeting review.

After finding a replay of the meeting on YouTube then cranking the speed up from 1x to 1.25 to 1.5 and finally landing on 1.75x normal speed, ta dah … the meeting was happily consumed with full 100% attention AND SOME NOTES!

These are in no sort of order, but basically organized as well as possible given the jumping of topics due to open questions – So here we go, hope you enjoy!

(These a not my opinions or thoughts, only a replay of Charlie and Warren’s high points)

Intro Discussion

Very Pro USA and Complimentary to Capital Creation in the USA

Brings a list of top largest 20 companies in the world, with total domination of USA

Currently have $145 Billion and only need $70 Billion – Current Asset Prices are Not Inviting to Warren and Charlie – Market is too fully priced (Sound Familiar?)

Sold Airlines to allow them to get Federal Funding

Munger Comment – His extra age seems to have loosened his muffler!

Higher State Taxes Chase some smart people away – Silly

SPACS are being created for Wall Street Not Investors and useless use of other peoples money – According to Charlie

Been and actor so long I do not know what I believe – Dogging on politicians and bad CEO’s

Buffett – More Politically PC

Low Interest Rates are causing very high asset prices

Inflationary prices are coming through the home building and other sectors, economy is red hot! Steel and scarcity of product

Furniture store red hot

More inflation going on than meets the eye- Yep

Both Admire Larry Summers convictions to Inflation concerns!

Great Closing Q & A Question:

What was greatest thing learned last year?

Munger: If you are not somewhat confused by what has happened you are not paying attention-

Buffett: Very interested in how this all works out!

Ok, so there you have it. 3.5 Hours condensed into one blog post with some high points that just by chance coincide with some of our thoughts….

Have a Great “Finally Made it Through a Berkshire Meeting” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents