After scheduling this post about 24 hours before now, yesterday an almost all day meeting with the local CFA (Chartered Financial Analysts) organization, a local deep level investment organization that found yours truly as President once upon a time, featured the key note lunch speaker of none other than … Robert Kaplan, the current Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman…
There is not a Federal Reserve Member, much less a president that does not have the Economy, interest rates, and notice of the inverted yield curve on his mind… His hour lecture was recorded… using one of the neat handy recorders from our Social Security event…. unfortunately at the time of this writing, the darn recorder would not be friendly with the laptop and share the speech….grrrr
Look for more in our coming Newsletter … and eventually the recorded conversation here … fingers crossed!
Now back to the original post!
It has been a while since we discussed the Yield curve and the inversion there of…
Look for a more detailed article in the coming Newsletter, but for now, the yield curve has inverted again, but this time with greater spread!
As a quick reminder, an inverted yield curve is when longer term rates are lower than shorter, an unusual situation as generally the longer the term the higher the rate so as to adjust/compensate for risk…
Our favorite term and the most useful in our minds is the ten year versus the 90 day yield…
Currently the 90 day treasury is yielding about 2.35% and the 10 year treasury is yielding 2.23% – yep, that’s inverted ….
Chart from St. Louis Federal Reserve
It is hard to see in this chart, and granted, it is a small inversion compared to recent times, but we are inverted and have been for the second week since mid-March, when we first inverted for five days….
Again, more in the coming Newsletter, but we are watching closely!
Have a Great “Inverted Yield Curve Update” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP