Category Archives: General Financial Planning

Q4 2022 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Slowdown Time to Clear, Ben Hunt Narratives, Peter Zeihan Global thoughts … Video Audio Podcast Review ! By John Kvale CFA, CFP …

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q4 2022 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

Q 4 2022 Newsletter

(YouTube)

Patience – Real Slowdowns take a while to clear

Bear Markets about 20 months

Slowdowns average about 14 months

Narratives by Ben Hunt

With the news being the worst near the tail end of a slowdown, after crossing paths with Ben over five times, we thought it a great time to review some of his thoughts and research…

The Missionary Statement or Strong Direct Narrative

Ben and his partner theorized that Missionary statements once saved for Oval Office wartime speeches or the like are now used in part due to the way we consume our information by almost everyone, leading to an overload possibly of missionary or breaking news like headlines and narratives.

The possible effect of strong missionary statements or narratives, again Ben theorizes is that when there is the need for a very strong subject matter or narrative, if we are not careful we have become desensitized to things because of the possible dramatization of other headlines and narratives that it’s not taken serious. Said simply, the boy who cried wolf

“Why am I reading this, and why am I reading it now?”

Dr. Hunt mentions that they have actually had a number of news organizations and authors directly communicate with he and his partner in order to make sure or check that they are not accidentally using a narrative, which is a fantastic possible change moving forward

Peter Zeihan – Russian Ukraine Thoughts – Demographics made It Now or Never

With regards to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Peter theorizes that this is a recapture of multiple ports of invasion that Russia has given up over the past many decades. He also mentions that because of poor demographics the Russian invasion was an absolute necessity sooner rather than later due too an aging population

Interest Rate Thoughts

“The Federal Reserve led by Jerome Powell, has long wanted to get rates up to a more normalized level”   For the record this has been a known goal in the halls of Wall Street and the Federal Reserve for that matter.

Peter goes on, “Seems to be a feeling from the Fed Officials, that if a recession is going to happen anyway, let’s get our toolkit back of a higher interest rates!”

Talk to you after the turn of the calendar !l!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Ben Hunt and Narratives … Shortened Article from just completed Newsletter

This is the time of the calendar that makes for A LOT of content in writing form…. thank goodness no writers block (For the record it has occurred)

The complete article is on the way to the printer, but came out so good … thought we would preview it here in shortened form!

Ben Hunt on Narratives

Ben theorizes that words are used to shape our behavior and as such he and Rusty, his business partner have a goal to identify when such events are occurring.

This is NOT a Fact Check, and not meaning that you as the reader will disagree or agree with them, only alerting to the fact that there may be some persuasion occurring in the narrative

The Missionary Statement or Strong Direct Narrative

Ben and his partner theorized that Missionary statements once saved for Oval Office wartime speeches or the like are now used in part due to the way we consume our information by almost everyone, leading to an overload possibly of missionary or breaking news like headlines and narratives.

The possible effect of strong missionary statements or narratives, again Ben theorizes is that when there is the need for a very strong subject matter or narrative, if we are not careful we have become desensitized to things because of the possible dramatization of other headlines and narratives that it’s not taken serious.

Comments from the Grant Williams Podcast

In the Podcast Grant mentions something Ben brought to his attention that he uses to decipher his in take of information. 

“Why am I reading this, and why am I reading it now?”

The gist of this is to be curious, or maybe slightly skeptical, but not pessimistic or negative, just having front of consciousness thought that maybe there is a slant or a narrative here that’s trying to persuade.

With Headlines being dramatic and very Negative during slowdowns, most notably very near the end of the slowdown…. a timely review!

Have a Great “Watch the Narrative Headlines” Day! Watch for the Newsletter Video for an Audio/Video/Podcast review of the article if you find it interesting!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Why Federal Express Comments were Taken so Negative …. Tentacles …

There are bell weather companies that have enough respect, when they speak the ripple effects are great. Last week Federal Express announced very negative earnings expectations and Wall Street took note.

Why Federal Express Caused Such Waves

Long time followers know we rarely speak of individual companies, but in this case wanted to explain the cause and effects of not only Federal Express but Capital Market movement post comments as well.

Here is what happened:

  • Federal Express cut earnings expectations by almost half
  • The new CEO says he expects “Worldwide Recession”
  • Cites dramatic slowdown near the end of the quarter

With tentacles across the globe and such strong words by the CEO, fear of contagion spread into markets.

Have a Great “Fed Ex” Cause and Effects Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Analyzing the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet … Interesting Analysis of MBS … Big Purchases … Big Sales

As mentioned Friday, there were a lot of words dictated, typed and researched over the weekend in preparation for the Q 4 Newsletter.

During some of the research, a stumble on to the follow chart occurred. Being totally unrelated to our Newsletter information, but very eye catching and interesting, a share was in order!

From our Friends at JPMorgan and their Market Insights Slide deck:

What is most striking to the eye, or at least our eyes, is the disproportionate amount of MBS (Mortgage Back Securities – think packs of Mortgages) the Federal Reserve purchased during this latest round of asset purchases.

This month the Federal Reserve has stated they are now pushing 97 Billion dollars of these assets back into the market, up from a prior mentioned 40 Billion monthly sale.

This may be a reason that Current Mortgage Rates are by almost any measure WAY to high, compared to their historical normal spreads between other similar assets.

Bottom line, the Federal Reserve likely over pushed rates low and they may be doing just the opposite now.

Just as eventually the sugar wears out, so will the salt of higher rates!

Have a Great “Had to Share a Neat Fed Chart” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

August 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – YAY …. Holiday Party Location Revealed – 401k Run Rate – Wall Street Mistake to Our Advantage, Bloated Inventory – Slowdown Contra Bounces and Pivot Narrative Reminder – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our August 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Break In: Holiday Venue Announced –

Thanks for the tease jabs last week… deserved…haha

Dallas Museum of Art

Details to Come – Saturday Afternoon November 19th before Thanksgiving Weekend

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

August 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Check that 401k Run Rate – Are we hitting our contribution goals?

Here in this post we remind everyone now is a good time to check the run rate for your 401k contributions….

The reason now is a good time is we have time to make up any shortcomings, should they be discovered…

Bloated Inventories – Wall Street Woes = Main Street Savings

With large public companies fessing up that they have accidentally over inventoried and will be slashing prices to move said bloats….

Now may be a good time for a MANDATORY purchase….

As we mentioned in our post here, we have done some spiffing up of the office in conjunction with our new lease signing… Maybe too many people took our post to heart…. options are greatly reduced on some of our updates…yikes

Capital Market Comments

Hill Street Blues Reminder – Let’s be Careful Out there

In our post here, we highlight as a reminder that slowing/recession markets can have interesting contra bounces… but as our Hill Street Blue’s Chief always stated….

Let’s be careful out there…

Jackson Hole – No Pivot

Along with contra bounces comes a narrative that usually gets some traction…

Sure enough, this bouncing narrative was the Jerome Powell was already Pivoting to a slower hand (Economically not important as the cards have been dealt- digressing) …

Jerome Powell announced in his last weekend speech …. not only NO PIVOT but get ready for some Pain….Wow….

Care to guess when the announcement occurred?

Not to worry we are most definitely …… Being Careful Out there!

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of September!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Bloated Inventories – Using Wall Street Knowledge for Main Street Use – Good time to make a MANDATORY Purchase

The headline almost read “Good time to make a Discretionary Mandatory Purchase”, but not being an English expert that probably is some sort of a miss punctuation or double negative…. Yes Mrs. Cane (English Teacher) still not good at punctuation … digressing…

As a Frugal Financial Advisor, “Mandatory” is placed squarely in the headline on purpose! But we wanted to bring Wall Street mishaps to Main Street savings.

Now is a good time to make a Mandatory Purchase

For those not following Wall Street ….the major retailers in an effort to overcome some of the supply chain issues have greatly overstocked their inventories by accident…..  At this time this includes almost all of the major retailers and most of the electronics retailers but not yet as much the major home and home builder type of stores. 

Not only are the inventories bloated, but companies are warning margins will be lower as they blow out these inventories…..

Here’s the sizzle, using our self as an example with the aforementioned signing of our new five year extended lease, as a regular practice it’s time to spiff up the office.

We have found fantastic electronic deals as we are in the process of upgrading much of our non-core computer items.

Again if you have a pseudo-mandatory purchase, the bloated inventory and markdowns which many publicly traded companies have already stated they are aggressively doing, may be a handy time to make again a “Mandatory” purchase.

While prices are likely at low levels, they can always go lower, but we have found seasonally around the holidays frequently prices pop up in advance to only be marked down to the normal price.

Again this is not a greenlight to go recklessly purchase items, and it may sound funny from a Frugal Financial Advisor to mention this, but we are taking advantage of something the largest retailers and electronic stores are telling us and in our experience are finding good deals on these “Mandatory” upgrades.

Have a Great Frugal Finder day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Great Time of the Year to Check Run Rate of Contributions to Retirement Plans or the Like

With a pending holiday week coming up in the next several and as mentioned before many on Wall Street seem to be getting their kids back to school. We thought it a timely time to remind everyone to check those retirement contribution run rates….


Great time to review your contribution levels

Midway through the third-quarter, is a good time for all of us to review our retirement contribution levels. If our intent is to max out your 401(k), or other retirement plan, take a peek and see if you’re on track to achieve this goal.



If you have any questions certainly shoot us your latest paycheck and we can do the calculations, but here are roughly where we should be on our contributions to the regular and ketchup 401(k) levels.


Ideally your year to date (YTD) contribution levels for your 401(k) regular withholding by yourself should be about $13,500 in order to meet the $20,500 regular filing maximum by the end of the year and if our goal is to achieve the $27K catchup for those 50 and older we should be at about the $18,000 level today. Both of these should be our individual YTD withholding amounts. We know there are matching and employer contributions … but the rules are set for us as an individual at the $19,500 regular maximum and $27,000 catch-up maximum.

Two quick reminders… if you have changed employers it is our job to keep up with the maximum amounts as mentioned here because our new employer will not know our prior contributions… Lastly we like to max fund early our contributions if we know we are not going to be at our employer the full year…. Especially if we may be going to another place that may not have a plan or may have a mandatory waiting period..

There are variances in certain situations, most of which we have already discussed, but those that we have not recently …

  This is your friendly reminder!

Have a Great “Retirement Run Rate” Reminder Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Hill Street Blues Reminder … Let’s be Careful Out there … Slowdown Refresher – Lengthy and Contra Bounces …

As a kid, with a firm 9 PM bedtime, one of the last shows I could grab before hitting the sack each night was a cop show … maybe showing my age, remember was a kid … Hill Street Blues, each show started out with the chief giving a summary of the day and passed events ….. and his words every show as he released his men to the streets were …

 “Let’s be careful out there!”

Reviewing Anatomy of a Slowdown again

Being creatures of habit … recency bias seeps into so much of our thinking … 2020 was just barely a double digit day retreat and Capital Markets of 2018 just barely a double digit month retreat. 

Many may have forgotten what a normal slowdown looks like.

Not trying to beat us over the head or a dead horse, however that goes …. More normal economic slowdown‘s as mentioned here and here just to name a few mentions (ok dead horse again) take somewhere between nine month and eighteen months a.k.a. 2007 – 2009 financial and 2000 dot com bust followed by a slow down, rather than just the most recent quarters we’ve experienced.

Contra Movements

Big bounces are part of a slowdown… much bigger bounces than normal growth appreciations during Growth/Bull times …

Yep… 19.37% and 22.93% bounces….

A slow down, the R word – (Recession), or a growth absence, patience is a virtue …

In true let’s be careful out there fashion, we haven’t forgotten the umbrella and maybe it will not rain, but we definitely have the umbrella just in case….

Bottom line, stay away from extreme headlines of “It’s all clear” and the other “It’s all doom and gloom”, we will get through this, but let’s be careful out there and have our patience hats on too!

Have a Great “Anatomy of a Slowdown Refresher” Day!

Be Careful out there too!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

The Salary You Need to Buy a Home in U.S. Cities … Can you guess which City is the highest?

Another cool graphic, from our friends at Visual Capitalist, that sources the salary needed for various locations across the country.

Not surprisingly, silicon valley a.k.a. San Jose California is one of the most expensive areas and demands the highest salary.

Noting the itemized top 10 cities in average home price below, what is surprising is New York is outside of the top five. As an observation there are always pockets within certain areas that have extreme prices.

Have a Great “Salary Needed to Buy a Home” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Handy Car Insurance Savings …. Again Idea from You in the Field …. If delayed repairs consider adjusting insurance …

With the various bottlenecks creating supply problems for everything from food … to chips (computer and potato), to all sorts of accessories … and parts in general, at times it’s left many feeling helpless.

From an actual experience from you guys in the field, hat tip BB ….. a fantastic money saving idea to possibly help counter some of the delays was discovered!

A second hat tip to LL for confirming that due to the aforementioned supply chain issues repairs … specifically auto repairs are of extreme delay …. and the respective insurance carriers are stuck trying to be mediator for everything !

Deem that terribly delayed automobile repair inoperable

This is not of course carte blanche for everyone to go shut off their automobile insurance, but with one teenager aboard our family policy and another one coming on in the next few months, every savings … especially as it relates to automobile insurance is helpful!

Check your policy and be sure to read the fine print on this before making any actions.

You also want to check the coverage of the location of your automobile to confirm with their policies cover.

This is also likely a technique that you would want to use for months of inoperability not just days or weeks.

OK now that we have the foundation covered from above here’s the sizzle:

Photo by Conor Samuel on Unsplash

Check your policy to see if you have an inoperable clause or similar on it.

It may be possible to earn significant savings on your automobile policy by using this clause, again if the aforementioned items have been met and are safely confirmed.

Yes, at times it’s very difficult to know just how long the repair may take. We have continued stories of lengthy parts delays and even family members that have autos with lengthy stays due to lack of workers to complete repairs, but if you meet the above it MIGHT be worth a review.

One more time, make sure you have the T’s crossed and the I’s dotted before doing this technique. It would be very penny wise and pound foolish if one were to turn the inoperable clause on and then have significant damages to the vehicle and it not be covered.

If you’re so lucky as to not have expensive automobile insurance, it’s likely that this is not worth the trouble!

Oh… one last item, you may also have what is called a Diminished Value claim if you were in an accident (not just delayed repairs) … we are not experts on this and would recommend speaking to your agent or utilizing Google to find out if this may be of help!

Have a great possible money savings day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents