In a great way to start the week for the past three weeks, each Monday has sported a breakthrough Vaccine announcement, first it was Pfizer, then Moderna and most recently Astrazeneca … WOW what a great way to start the week(s).
Capital Market Comments
Muted Reaction to Vaccine
Many thought the markets would have roared more post trifecta Vaccine announcements above … under the surface many companies left for dead HAVE roared, and markets have edged higher, but as mentioned most recently earlier here at current levels markets are pricing in a lot of good news already and likely are well ahead of themselves.
As you may know we have found several interesting items to follow this year….
First was the TSA throughput, measuring the upward trend in traffic passing through TSA security … here, here and here
Then we stumbled upon the Kastle back to work index, showing commercial office vacancy rates of the ten largest cities – interesting Kastle is a security monitoring company among other things, but hence the ability to share the data.
Used Auto Prices
Recently through the grapevine we heard stories of used auto purchase increases, which make sense as folks exit the larger metro areas and possibly avoid crowded public transportation …
So here is a longer dated chart …
Let’s look a little closer …magnifying the most recent activity
So this is the Price Index for Used Cars and Trucks from the St. Louis Fed (FRED) database….
Surprising at first, but upon second thought…. not surprising at all !
We will keep track, and hope you find it maybe just a little bit as interesting as we do!
Have a Great “Used Car and Truck Flying off the shelf” Day!
Social Security, one of the few Pension Like Benefits that has a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) announced an annual increase – there is not always an increase … which we discussed here in this post with links to the announcement for those wanting more detail!
Possible Realizing of Capital Gains
With year end tax planning in mind, here in this post we discuss the possibility of realizing Capital Gains if your are on the fence and may be thinking of pushing gains out to next year…. this with approval and knowledge of your tax professional – let’s not get reckless!
Capital Market Comments
Election Outcomes and Market Reactions
Here in this post we carefully tip toe into the Election outcomes and possible market outcomes ….
Hanging Chads – No one is elected and a lengthy battle ensues – In our minds, most Market disruptive – Participants dislike uncertainty
Clean Sweep Either Direction – This may surprise you, but participants generally favor a partial party political holding
Partial Party Holding = Inferred from the points above – Partial party holding in either direction is likely least market disruptive
This Tuesday, October 6, 2020 the TDAmeritrade/Schwab merger was approved by the regulators …. it’s a big merger, hence the time for final approval…
As they say, now the real work begins… we expect mostly transparency and behind the scene actions for the next 12-18 months…
Coincidentally and with good timing, the big annual convention is all on line and later this month…. any interesting findings will certainly be shared…
Speaking of convention, ANOTHER convention (NAPFA), we have never attended, has gone virtual … at the end of the month has garnered our attendance as well…
Ahhhh… but today is a Friday, heading into an early October weekend…. nice and cool here, with an injured tennis player, home for a few….
We spotted this neat chart last week from our friends once again at Visual Capitalist … here
Worth noting … we were close to these levels in 1945 as can be seen on the chart…
While the above is a more descriptive 200 year chart, we just could not help ourselves in showing a much shorter but encouraging one month chart of the same ten year treasury noted above …. again, VERY short time frame, but we like the upward movement….
We crow a lot about interest rates, but they really are VERY important…
Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 4 2020 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.
Click here for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page
Unlike the last two Newsletters which had very little economic and market related comments, this one is all about where we have been, what has occurred and where we may be going!
As the spread of the Covid Virus occurred, Capital Market Participants in true anticipation form, voted with their feet and sold assets across the board well ahead of the eventual lock downs.
The largely followed S&P 500 (Larger US Companies) fell over 33% along with major international markets such as the German Dax falling over 35% and US Small companies represented by the Russell 2000, falling over 40%.
The most startling item of the drop was the speed at which this drop occurred, 27 days!
Ignoring the speed of these most recent declines is a bad idea as we need only look earlier in 2018 to see ANOTHER very fast drop.
The FOMC Steps In – Lowers Rates
By Mid-March as Capital Markets continued their descent, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell, dropped the hammer on interest rates by a full 1% to zero. During normal times, .25% is the usual adjustment as can be seen by the late 2019 and early 2020, non-crisis adjustments.
FOMC Adds More Fuel
Correctly using the financial crisis of 07-09 as the play book, the FOMC took the bazooka out, and starting buying assets to flood the markets with liquidity. The current bazooka is much bigger (about 3 X) this time as can be seen by the difference in balance sheet increase of $1 Trillion in 07-09 versus the $ 3 Trillion and counting increase currently.
It Worked (Maybe Too Well), Capital Markets Took Notice
You know us to be very positive – all through the many negatives that have occurred !
You also know we will call it like we see it!
Markets have officially gone too far and are ahead of themselves, expect bumps and no extra risk taking is warranted at this time – CAREFUL!
We hope you enjoy … talk to you Next Year – 2021 !!!
In a luckily timed post here in our August review and again here in September we mentioned that markets had gotten far enough ahead of themselves, we had to waive the white caution flag…
Oddly, within days of our original white waiver, markets slipped … always rather be lucky than good – markets breathed caution in the air quickly with a sharp 10% correction — Safety is still advised!
Capital Market Comments
Inflation & The FOMC
In a somewhat preliminary discussion on what might change market sentiment, not knowing it had already adjusted a bit, here , here , here we discussed inflation measures, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and their views along with our personal favorite inflation measure, Dallas Federal Reserves own Trimmed Mean inflation gauge.
Reminder … especially pertinent given all the changes in due dates !
ES Q 3 Quarterly Tax Estimated Payments Due
Next Tuesday, September 15, 2020 is the Due Date of Quarterly ES Payments … here is a direct link to the IRS pamphlet where you can find the coupon, instructions and of course where to mail the payment!
Newsletter Preview
With fingers crossed that current events don’t destroy the third Newsletter in a row, we are trepidly wading into a review of the events so far this year, our thoughts … and some really neat charts that we think you will like…
Here is a sample of a couple of our favorites so far:
This second chart is amazing to us …just how much horsepower is being thrown at the Global Markets!
Friday
Ahhhh… today is a Friday, heading into a big pro sports filled weekend ….
Enjoy, be safe and have a Great Friday and Weekend!
In a luckily timed post (two showed up in the mailbox the same day of the reminder) here we discussed the extra late arriving Form 5498.
This is a confusing settle up form that requires not action other that to add to your tax file in order to avoid unnecessary taxes!
Fraud Wire Delay Reminder
In this post we remind those setting up new Wire/Linking instructions to financial accounts, especially non liked titled accounts to be careful and have patience.
Fraudsters are attempting to take advantage of the situation!
Capital Market Comments
Gone Too Far
You know us to be very positive – all through the many negatives that have occurred !
You also know we will call it like we see it!
Markets have officially gone too far and are ahead of themselves, expect bumps and no extra risk taking is warranted at this time – CAREFUL!
We carefully spoke on the use of Credit Cards and maximizing their points and incentives due to repeated inquiries about the topic, in this post.
Credit Cards can be very dangerous and the card companies want us to carry balances … so PLEASE BE CARFUL!
Vaccine Update – It’s Looking Good
In this post we pointed to an excellent Bloomberg Tracker that is showing multiple Phase III drugs about to hit the testing.
Phase III is the last one before mass production… making for a very fast track of multiple possible cures for Covid.
This is also market friendly as well.
Capital Market Comments
The Look Through Continues – Expect Bumps
Not trying to sound like a broken record, but in April we proclaimed that smart market participants may likely look through the valley and over the hill to eventual earnings.
As a reminder, we were really on an island as very few were positive at that time.
They did, and continue to do so … with a bit too much rose colored glasses in our opinion…
We continue to expect bumps as there are tons of unknowns and a negative narrative can take over quickly…
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial advisor prior to investing!
Background
The is the vocal portion of J.K. Financial, Inc. a Dallas Texas Based Fee Only Total Wealth Financial Planning Firm. Founded by John Kvale, a Dallas Texas Fee only Financial Planner and Total Wealth Manager.
November 2020 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale …
Hello and Welcome to our November 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!
If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!
Newbies –
We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!
Hope you enjoy!
November Video
(YouTube)
Financial Planning Tip (s) –
Vaccines (Times 3 and Counting) are Coming
In a great way to start the week for the past three weeks, each Monday has sported a breakthrough Vaccine announcement, first it was Pfizer, then Moderna and most recently Astrazeneca … WOW what a great way to start the week(s).
Capital Market Comments
Muted Reaction to Vaccine
Many thought the markets would have roared more post trifecta Vaccine announcements above … under the surface many companies left for dead HAVE roared, and markets have edged higher, but as mentioned most recently earlier here at current levels markets are pricing in a lot of good news already and likely are well ahead of themselves.
Have a Great November Update!
Talk to you at the end of December!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents
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Posted in General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Monthly Review
Tagged Astrazeneca, Moderna, Pfizer, Vaccine