Category Archives: General Financial Planning

September 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our September 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

September 2021 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Email Providers

In this post, we spoke to the safety of signing your name to the biggest email providers if possible for your own safety….

Of course not all names will be available, but if yours is, it is a great idea to take it, even if you never use the email platform… think scammers acting as you!

Capital Market Comments

Jerome Powell Gets Angry, Taper Coming

In this market related post, we noted that Powell, head of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) was very stern in taper talk as well as the following quote from us:

“On another totally different and non-market related and non-economic related topic several federal reserve members had transactions over the past year that were not optically good for the federal reserve. One of the members is our very own favorite Robert Kaplan who had multiple large transactions in securities that the federal reserve was involved.

While we will voice no opinion on this … Jerome Powell was very stern surprisingly, and in our mind so stern that it could be an occupational loss for some of these members. It will be interesting to see what comes out of this, but this is not the end of it and once again Powell was very angry and forceful on this point.”

Unfortunately, Kaplan our favorite announced his retirement as well as the other board member, before the end of the day after our post!

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of October!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Seasonal Patters Exist, Farmers Almanac, Traders Almanac

Growing up on a farm, we were always conscience of the coming season. The change would come whether we liked it or not (never big fan of the dark months ..Feeding the Cows in the dark, Ice Storms, Sleet, Brrr) but we knew they would eventually come and if we did not like the coming season it would eventually work its way through on to the next season.

This was tracked by The Farmers Almanac!

Of course we never knew just exactly when, how bad … and sometimes it would even seem like it was not coming, but it would… frequently of differing severity, but at the absolute least rhyming with the season from the prior year.

Just like Summer, led to fall and fall to Winter and so on…. believe it or not, Capital Markets have seasonality too!

The Traders Almanac

Not living on a farm anymore, and having a fun occupation that entails Capital Markets, it is worth noting of the Seasonality of Capital Markets….

According to the Traders Almanac October followed closely by September are the worst two months of the year…. among many other seasonal patterns…

  • Mutual Fund End of the Year Occurs during this period
  • Public Company Final Quarter projections confession
  • Lack of Cash Flows Due to Nearing the End of the year
  • Black Out Periods of Buybacks due to earnings season
  • Religious Holidays
  • Quadruple Witching (Expiration of 4 Different Options Type contracts) One of largest ever last Friday

Any or all could be the reason some or maybe none…..

Pair this with extended valuations which we have been beating you with and maybe a FOMC that is sending smoke signals of tapering asset purchases….

It may be bumpy for a while….

But guess what?

Just like knowing on the farm that in December the days began getting longer, November and December are “Seasonally” the best months of the year for Capital Markets …. of course there are exceptions (2018) …

Stay buckled, we have you covered but there may be some turbulence if seasonality holds!

Have a Great “Farmers/Traders Almanac” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Back to the Office? Not Yet, Kastle Back to Work Index Update

One of our first and favorite finds of interest over the last year and half, the Kastle Back To Work Index.

This index, created by Kastle an office security among other things company (what a clever way to use resources) references multiple city indexes as well as the average on all the cities they cover..

Great progress, with a bit of curving over as of late…. Not back to 50% yet on any of the areas they produce tracking data.

Total Average of just over 30% back at the office, again with some decreases of late. On a personal note, we have had multiple large industry related gatherings switch to virtual as of late!

Will be interesting to see how long it takes to get back to “Normal” and just what that looks like?

Have a Great “Back to Office Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

August 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our August 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

August 2021 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Unemployment Fraud Alert

Multiple frauds occurring in continuous weeks, led us to write this post, reminding those that the fraudsters are still at it.

Their latest game…using stolen Socials and Employment information to gain unsuspecting employers Unemployment compensation.

While likely some accidentally fall through the cracks, we have yet to experience anything other than a mild inconvenience….

But do not let your guards down and if a victim, keep your eyes peeled for other items for the near term!

Child Tax Credit Confusion

After repeated confusion, here in this post we outline the new ADVANCED child tax credit payments than sneakily commenced several months ago…

Also a warning of an overworked IRS to keep line of sight to the funds in case we need to pay them back in the form of a higher tax bill when completing our 2021 Form 1040 Personal income tax return in April of 2022!

Capital Market Comments

Kyle Bass Forecasts

In this podcast derived post, we re-visit Kyle Bass again after a few year hiatus…

Here are his latest forecasts…. hopefully they come true

  • The Federal Reserve will continue to support the markets with continued purchases.
  • Federal Reserve feels responsible for Capital Markets … i.e. Every Federal Reserve member has a Bloomberg Investment terminal on their desk and post public talks, Fed members go back to their office to check the markets reactions to their comments.
  • Much more inflation than actually as printed by CPI – (Consumer Price Index) Example of car price increases up 300% over last thirty years, but CPI auto costs increased 5% over that period.
  • Cost of Food increases may cause social inequity problems.
  • Oil hits $100 per barrel this year … due to mal investment over the last 7 years.
  • Short term interest rates not to go higher than 1.5% and long term (10 year) rates will not go higher than 2.5%. i.e. Bernanke Helicopter speech outlines the difficulty in raising rates a lot once they are at a lowered level for some time.
  • We push through the Delta Variant and there is a REAL re-opening effect that works its way through the economy (Hope this is correct!)

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of September!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

First Full Week of School in the Books … Partial Week Next Week, Labor Day ! Getting Ready for Fall Sports… Child Tax Credit Preview … Late Summer Friday

Whew….. the first full week of school is thankfully almost in the books…..

Always say after the first or second full week “Don’t know how we are going to make it!” But we do!

The Sleep schedule is getting better, up at least 10-15 minutes for the 13 year old before departure time

He even got the choppers brushed four out of five days!

Just when the schedule steadies… next week has an early release late in the week followed by Monday Labor Day Holiday!

As a reminder, Monday week is the official Labor Day Holiday! (Maybe that is for return to school help …haha)

Fall Sports on the Horizon…

As the days get shorter on light, the fall sports calendar starts to get in gear!

Child Credit Confusion

We have run into repeated Child Tax Credit Confusion and are planning an early next week longer post with the IRS notes for clarity…. we really have had a lot of questions and have been somewhat confused ourselves …

It’s a Friday and most of that was last week, but we are heading into a late Summer Friday on the weekend before a shortened week…

Enjoy, talk next week and have a Great Weekend,


John A, Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Continued Improvement in the US Economy … Monthly BLS Employment Report .. Unemployment Rate, Interest Rate Reaction

On Friday, August 6, 2021 the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released the prior monthly (July 2021) employment related report. It is worth noting these are preliminary and will be adjusted in future months, but usually major adjustments are not in the picture….

Bottom Line:

943k hires in the month of July … NICE

5.4% Unemployment Rate as of July …Getting there (lower is better of course)

10 Year Treasuries Took note

BLS Unemployment Report for July 2021

The following Chart from the BLS may look unenthusiastic at first glance….. but hold on!

With the DRAMATIC volatility from the past year, the longer term chart does not give a true recent view…. Let’s look a little closer …. Much Better!

In much the same vein as above, the year view of the Unemployment rate does not look like a big deal as can be seen by the next chart!

On second thought, again with a closer view….. NICE! (We want a downward trending chart when measuring Unemployment)

10 Year Treasuries Wake Up

A measure of future expected growth, after some wrong sided players (shorting the 10 year in expectation of much higher rates faster) blew up pushing yields possibly incorrectly lower….

From Business Insider here

A hedge fund reportedly lost $1.5 billion in a bond market short-squeeze as bets on rising rates turned sour

These Good Economic Numbers put yields on the move higher (far right of chart)!

Continued improvement would likely force the FOMC to slow asset purchases…. as discussed here much desired by many !

Have a Great “Good Economic News” and analysis Monday!


John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

July (YIKES GOING FAST) 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our July 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

July 2021 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

IRS Refunds and Tax Return Processing Very Delayed

In this Break In Post, after having discussions with several of you, and then touching our CPA contacts we came to the conclusion that the IRS is delayed in processing returns and more importantly REFUNDS!!!

Before we could get the news to you, this Yahoo Finance Article nicely summarizes that the IRS is behind on a whopping 20% of returns or over 30 million !

With a September 1, 2021 IRS stimulus check lookback (those who did not get the last round of stimulus will be reviewed by the IRS to see if they qualify) the IRS has their hands very full….

All together…. PATIENCE! They will eventually get to us!

Fingers Crossed For a Hot (Large) COLA Increase

Catching wind through our contacts of a possible HOT (read Large!) COLA adjustment this year for Social Security and possibly those lucky ones that have a COLA adjuster on their Pension or other retirement plan we dug in here in this post and outlined the methodology used by the SSA. The line in the sand for adjustment is later in the year but as can be seen by the latest CPI-W running at 6.1%, with a little luck, we may have a very nice adjustment on our hands!

Capital Market Comments

Valuations are Getting Better but Expectations are WAY out of Line!

In this post and with the help of our Friends at JPMorgan we happily reviewed the far right hand smartly turning graph, that is headed in the correct direction for better valuations… YAY

A bit later in the month we ran across a wonderful but somewhat worrisome poll done by Natixis of over 8000 investors and their expected return over the next 10 years…. Way off base in our minds….

Likely to see this last poll make its way into the Newsletter as these numbers are likely so exaggerated, we want more air time!

Ok…that’s a wrap for the July review….

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of August!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Survey of Over 8000 Individual Investors Next 10 Year Investment Expectations – WRONG! – Natixis 2021 Survey

We recently ran across a very interesting survey. What caught our eye on this survey was the large number surveyed, 8550 individuals in over 24 countries, all with at least $100k of investments in Capital Markets.

The second item that caught our eyes, were some of the jaw dropping expectations of these investors. Thankfully, the survey is also given to professional investors and a neat comparison can easily be made!

Natixis Global Individual Investor Survey

Here in the 2021 Natixis Global Individual Investor Survey, some eye popping results caught our eye. As a side note there is a similar survey done with Institutional Survey as well.

The most recent survey found these collective individual investors expecting 13% returns over the next 10 years, ABOVE inflation….or a 14.5% total 10 year average!

We never make guarantee calls, as there are not any…. but we would find it EXTREMELY unlikely to meet these expectations. Not only that, but as you can see from the chart, the returns follow what we call “Rear View Mirror Forecasting” which is using the most recent past to forecast the future … rather than using true forecasting techniques.

Another concern arising from this information is with this expectation a possible under saving for the future and too low of risk expectations that may be inferred with these results.

Comparing the Individual versus the professional expectation of the next 10 years of returns, comes up with a very large variance.

Professional investors are expecting a much more reasonable 5.3% return. Clearly professionals are not using “Rear View Mirror Forecasting”

Individuals expect 13% over inflation for the next 10 years with Professionals expecting 5.3% – while we wish individuals are correct, it’s very unrealistic … Pro’s are likely much more accurate!

We will code this one Forecast and look back in 10 years to see who was closer! Yep a 10 year lookback….

Let the clock start ticking!

Have a Great “Individual versus Pros Expectation” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

BREAK IN- DELAYED IRS REFUNDS (35 million to be exact) … Branson Makes History … Survey Results Preview … Trials of Server Cut Over … British Open Friday …

BREAK IN – After multiple inqueries this week regarding missing or delayed refunds, then a field touch of Tax Professionals and other expected refunders we came to the comfortable conclusion there are delays.

Before we could get this to you, this yahoo finance story breaks, saying as many as 20% of all returns (35 million- yikes) may be delayed… wow- but good detective instincts by us!

So if you have a refund due, and it is late, don’t worry, the IRS is behind but will get to us eventually!

Branson Hits the Skies

Ya ya, a bunch of Billionaires racing to the skies… we get the negative, but you cannot take away the fact that Branson (Musk and Bezos in line too) took to the skies and was the first outer space self funded and self manned traveling vessel.

These things crash and explode… frequently… heck Branson did not even wear a helmet… cavalier, maybe…. ego driven…. maybe, accomplishment, for sure!

Crazy Billionaire…. Maybe!

Survey Results Preview

We have run into a terrific survey that we cannot believe. Over 8000 folks were surveyed across the globe with some startling results….

Planned on having it mid-week this week, but did not get Copyright clearing until later….

Look out next week, we cannot wait to review…. it may even be good enough for a Two Part Series… will see…

Trials and Tribulation of the Summer Tech Update

Literally the day we posted our initial announcement of our summer technology update on Friday…. Our WIFI at the office went out…

Nothing to do with the update, we assure you!”

Ok, fine … Monday of the week found several of us no access to our contact information and email….

Luckily the cell and Ipad were working great UNTIL – Thursday.. Boom, down ….but fixed with a call to said IT folks…

If you happen to send an email to us and not receive a response, please resend, we MAY have not received it!

Next week fingers crossed for a smooth “Cut Over” (Techie term for new services)

Ahhhhhh…. but today is a Friday…. you guys know how much I like the summer sun, yep its hot, but that’s ok, enjoy your day, your weekend, and be sure to spend time with those special in your life if possible – talk next week!

Ohhh, and one more thing… it is a British Open Golf Weekend, where Golf will be available first thing in the AM for those who fancy such!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Market Valuation Update … How are we doing? Forward PE Ratio Review

As mentioned multiple times … with recent examples here and here by almost any metric Capital Market valuations have been and are stretched.

As a reminder this does not mean that markets have to come tumbling down to earth … just that heightened risks of sharper declines may be possible. Also as a reminder, just like our teenager with oversized clothes grows into them … as earnings increase faster than Capital Markets rise, valuations can come back in line! YAY

Updated Valuation Metric from our Friends at JPMorgan

And while still stretched take note of the very far right of the graph as it has smartly turned over as earnings outpaced Capital Market Growth



This is why the Graph is moving in a better direction – huge expected earnings in view….

Nice….

Still no time to swing for the fences, which we never do- but good progress…

Have a Great “Better Valuations” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents