Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q4 2023 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.
Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page
Rate Increase GOOD for Pension Plans and Pension Recipients
Special thanks to Milliman and Rebecca head of medial relations for allowing us the ability to reference this fantastic data… also sourced at the end of our post/article.
Here are the top 100 pension plans, a lot of names you likely know and maybe even have a pension with… At least one family member included in this.
With higher interest rates, something we have mentioned numerous times… Notice because of a rather complex future liability projection, pension plans for the most part are FINALLY funded….YAY
Don’t Fight the Fed! Wait, are we Fighting the FED? YEP
This unusual correlation especially when the blue line is going down, represents the FED (Federal Open Market Committee) pulling money from the economy or trying to slow the Economy.
Add higher rates, at the fastest pace ever….
Interesting that participants are fighting the FED, even though they regularly quote “Don’t Fight The FED!”
Stimulus still sloshing around in the Economy…
True-Up Reminders – 401k and the Like
In the year 2023 (Currently heading towards a close) the maximum amount WE (not including matching) can contribute is $22.500 and for those either age 50 or older or turning age 50 happily in 2023, you get a nice catch-up amount of $7,500 bringing your deferred amount to a whopping $30,000!
Pro-Tip – Contribute evenly throughout the year, with a terminal amount of maximizing in late November or early December.
Pro-Trick – Similar to rushing/upping your contributions near the end of employment to maximize levels, if you are new to an employer and wish to maximize your contributions for the year, dump all you can to maximize your contributions now, with the intention of dropping that contribution level down to a normal level (see Pro-Tip above) after the turn of the calendar.
Do Not Overfill Duplicate Plan Years
Remember, if you have contributed to a plan earlier in the year via another employer, your new employer will not be able to throttle your contributions back if you happen to go over the total annual limit. Reach out for help and clarity on this!
Be Aggressive in New Plans
Lastly, in new plans, starting from scratch with new contributions, allocation should be wide open and aggressive with the hope of choppy entry points as your contributions make up the majoring of the plan and will take advantage of the ups and downs in the early years of the plan.
Cyber Reminder- Tips and Tricks
If there’s one thing, for those of us with little time or patients for a long read that we would like you to take from this article it is that most cyber intrusions come from an e-mail that has a bad actor with a hot link click, do not click on that bad hot link!
The second thing and more encouraging, most cyber security situations are not extremely complicated and are allowed by a simple letting of our guards down- see above point!
Handy tip #1– Use an only known to you, phrase or password.
Handy tip #2– Do not ignore the recommended updates!
USB/Pen Drives a No No Avoid the USB/pen drive at all costs unless you absolutely, 100% know where it came from
RMD Age Changes and other Important Dates
RMD (Required Minimum Distributions)
One of the most important and likely most confusing due to the recent multiple updates is the adjustment of Required Minimum Distributions (RMD) They are now mandatory to commence for those aged 73. Those turning 75 after 2033, your new RMD age is 75. Recall, these just a few years ago, moved from age 70 1/2 to 72, now to age 73 and eventually age 75. No wonder we are all confused!
Social Security Mandatory Commencement Date reminder age 70
The current maximum age that you may defer commencement of Social Security still remains at age 70, well below the new younger thresholds that we hopefully are all feeling.
The earliest one may take Social Security remains age 62, with a 25% discount to the full retirement age (FRA) benefit amount AND has a maximum earnings level of $21,240 from W-2 or 1099 (working income) not pension, investment or other non working types of income.
Have a Great Fall! Talk after the turn of the Calendar!
With the final editing of the Q 4 2023 Newsletter in process… an article included in is Cyber Security from a half day seminar late spring….
From the Newsletter Article..
If there’s one thing, for those of us with little time or patients for a long read that we would like you to take from this article it is that most cyber intrusions come from an e-mail that has a bad actor with a hot link click, do not click on that bad hot link!
The second thing and more encouraging, most cyber security situations are not extremely complicated and are allowed by a simple letting of our guards down- see above point!
It Happens to the Best of them – MGM Resorts
Monday morning, during a regular research call, it was noted MGM had been taken down via a hacker… maybe a bad loser… but who knows…
This from the site early am Monday… for all of MGM at the time…
Oh my…just checked it again… YIKES!
Snapshot taken 9-12-23 at 8:44 PM
Cannot imagine the lost revenue from this hack… WOW!
On Tuesday, some point-of-sale locations couldn’t process credit card transactions at MGM’s retail outlets, and in-resort ATMs were offline. Some guests complained that they couldn’t get into their hotel rooms because the MGM app was off. The company has since remedied that problem by issuing key cards. MGM’s websites and mobile app remained down on Tuesday.
Check that Social Security Statement no Matter your age
While a late delivery, we managed to remind all (including ourselves) why we need to review annually our Social Security statement, here in this post…. along with some new features from the SSA (Social Security Administration) in their updated website!
From the post:
Confirm your credits via your Earning History
Confirm you received credits for your hard earned money is very important, and easy…. here is what the screen shot look like – Below- oh, there are new drop downs for excellent help if your credits are not showing
Capital Market Comments
Not one, not two, not three …. but FOUR Downgrades with one called by ourselves – Tap Tap on the back
In this first post we commented that Fitch put a shot across the bow of the USA Credit Boat with a mild downgrade from AAA to AA+
Not to be outdone, another of the big three credit agencies, Moody’s chimed in as we discussed here
Then back into the pool goes Fitch with ANOTHER downgrade…. here we discussed Fitch’s second downgrade and mentioned we were surprised the One of the Big Three were silent….
BOOM that night of our above post, the other big three S&P Global Markets came to the party…. as we discussed here along with a timely fun YTD Bankruptcy Graph from our bud at Visual Capitalist
These downgrades among a couple of other items, not surprising, led to an upward push on rates… highlights to the far right…. already headed back to norms!
Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of September !
AI – Artificial Intelligence Update – Great but Not Saving the World
In this timely post (in our humble opinion – IMHO) we revisit the latest rage… AI – Artificial Intelligence – very similar to Dot.com in our opinion… So we try to clarify…
Oh… Here is a GREAT YouTube resource for explaining AI – Christopher Penn a Marketing Expert we have long followed
From the Post:
AI – Artificial Intelligence Today explained
Program assigns a number to all the words in the English Language – other languages too of course.
Cluster of huge computers located somewhere inexpensive scans everything it can get its eyes on, and tags the patterns of the numbers from the words it has scanned…
Student Loan Update – No forgiveness – BUT story not over
Supreme knocks the loan forgiveness down – BUT plans continue – story not over !
There are plans to delay the repayments, what will be interesting to see if interest starts acrueing again and the end result of the forgiveness… stay tuned, likely not over!
Capital Market Comments
Robert Kaplan gets Candid – Accidentally Lets Rabbit out of the Hat
In a stumbled upon podcast, we discover some accidental VERY candid comments from former Dallas Federal Reserve chair, Robert Kaplan, here in this post.
There are still TONS of stimulus in the system – We new it!
Higher for Longer
Good Ole Boys Club – New it again!
Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of July !
Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q3 2023 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.
Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page
Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!
BREAK IN – The TDAmeritrade Charles Schwab merger will happen over Labor Day Weekend (September 5th, 2023) – Only Changes: Log in portal and account number – Expect (no reply) Legal Paperwork and emails!
Looking Forward Now with Regards to Rate Increases
Three Articles Centered around this main leading Article –
In our main lead article, we discuss the look forward expectations of NOT lowering rates as soon as many think. With higher rates, cost of capital will be more expensive for many projects, giving the Federal Reserve the desired slow down in the Economy ! Hopefully, and not too much!
Research Affiliates Robert Arnott 10 Year Expected Returns
Take note of Arnott’s powerful firm with predictions of the slower/safer Bonds earning more than the good ole SP 500 like stocks, earning and inferior 10 year return- Lots of disclaimers of course!
Higher for Longer
Asset Allocation – What’s old is New Again (Wish I would have thought of this title for the Newsletter) – Bonds may be our new Buddy – Especially if Powell is to be taken at his word!
Slow motion Slowdown – It is likely not over yet
Sneaky stimulus remains and with the fencing of Banks, this has the effect of additional stimulus in the system!
A Day in the Life and Summer Plans
While we may not talk Wall Street talk, our days are full of watchful research and fun client interactions!
The return of what we are doing this summer finally makes its way back into the Newsletter – we hope you enjoy!
The Forward-Guidance podcast review, recommended from one of my coveted study buddy groups, a week or so ago!
With downtime over the holiday weekend and the newsletter not being in print just yet… Robert Kaplan’s comments from a podcast came in very much in line with some of the articles in our coming Q 3 2023 newsletter, as such we had to bring you up to speed on this podcast. NICE!
Recall Robert Kaplan was a Dallas Federal Reserve President, before getting caught up in a political issue and he along with several other members ended up resigning.
What stands out about this podcast is the candor that Kaplan gives, which is what we are always looking for. Is it because this is a less than hugely popular podcast ? … although it will make my regular check for subject matter from now on, Or it is due to the resignation which would make Kaplan never available for public service again? …so he has nothing to lose period. Does not matter the reason his candor again is what grabbed attention.
The just over one-hour podcast which can be found here (Forward Guidance), had three important points to bring to your attention:
There’s still stimulus flowing in through the system- Again one of our articles in the coming Q 3 2023 newsletter speaks about the ERC or employee retention credit, Kaplan mentioned specifically talking to many mayors of many cities across the United States which have an abundance amount of stimulus capital still on their balance sheet that must be spent before 2025. hmmmmm
Higher interest rates for longer should be the baseline assumption according to Kaplan– Again this is the subject matter of another of our newsletter articles. Kaplan speaks to the podcaster candidly and says capital markets even though we were just beginning a credit cycle (Tightening of lending standards, less loans, higher interest rates and lower margins, increased defaults all the intent of the federal reserve’s higher rates to slow the economy)- while capital markets and participants are pricing a lower interest rate at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, Kaplan cautions participants to take Jerome Powell at his word. The only thing that would make him change his posture is some large event created by the further progress of the aforementioned credit cycle.
It is a good old boys club– In an aha moment that we always thought existed, Kaplan slips and says his dissenting vote in September of 20 was a frowned upon event by Jerome Powell! However he quickly corrected himself and said I will let Powell speak for himself, but the rabbit was out of the hat, Kaplan realizing this went on to say that the general spirit of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is everybody agrees and falls in line with a distinct hierarchy of ranking. We could all remember and learn that there is a very much pecking order where the king is the chair, and the pawns are supposed to follow.
Apologies for the length of this post, as mentioned with some time off and the dictation in hand, along with a total complement to our pending newsletter, wanted to bring this to your attention.
Have a great “Inside the Federal Reserve via Robert Kaplan” day!
Today is a Friday heading into an almost exact middle of the summer school holidays for those of us here in the South….
Tuesday July 4th Holiday – National Holiday – Everything Closed Tuesday
Next week, due to an odd Tuesday wonderful Fourth of July National Holiday… poor Monday is stranded….
Lonely Monday will likely garner very skeleton crews with mostly dreams of sparkled skies… Not sure when the actual celebrations will be – but Monday will stay lonely none the less…
Office Hours
Our office will be close with very light technology tether as well… not doing much for the lonely Monday … but oh well… Mid-Year work will be performed even if you do not see/hear from us….
Ahhh….that is all next week, Enjoy your Friday – talk Mid week next week!
Have a Great “Friday and Happy Early Fourth of July” Cheers!
With a few days out of the office …. that saying of “Sharpening the Saw” comes to mind… Think it speaks more to a solitude down time than we have in this day of technology and need to stay connected… but we get the point, and feel the saw has been sharpened, maybe in a more modern day sense….
Enjoyed catching fish, extra jogs and work outs… and even some movie nights with most of the gang….
The 15 year old even learned to drive a manual “Stick shift” – ouch to the back on the lack of smoothness … fortunately not hitting the roads ANYTIME soon.. not kidding here!
Newsletter Research Findings
While the exact data that was being searched for the next Newsletter (Business Tax Refunds resulting from ERC – Employee Retention Credits – causing a slow motion economic slowing due to remaining stimulus being burned off- wow- what a mouthful) WAS NOT FOUND YET -grrr… we did stumble onto some great IRS feeds via the bird site (Twitter) that we will keep in our pocket for future use… Even AI could not help us, go figure (You mean it doesn’t know EVERYTHING- digressing with a full caffeine intake this am)
Ahhhhh….but TODAY is still a Friday, heading into a drive back home weekend and early summer “Pools are open” weekend!
Berkshire Hathaway – Buffett Munger Words to Live By
In this post Charlie Munger and Warren Buffet are discussed in great details… along with a secret to speeding the time to listen (1.75x speed)…..
Main thoughts to live by from Charlie and Warren:
The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor.
If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens.
All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there. And a related thought: Early on, write your desired obituary – and then behave accordingly.
If you don’t care whether you are rational or not, you won’t work on it. Then you will stay irrational and get lousy results.
Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one thing for a long time is a huge advantage.
There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero.
Particularly added this as just last week, saw a review of the meeting that completely missed several of these points in my opinion.
Capital Market Comments –
Debt Ceiling Fizzle- All done until after next elections
With several comments from the field, we spoke multiple times, here and here about the Debt Ceiling, the history and the most likely outcome…
Much of our confidence on the matter comes from our contacts that we have developed over the years that try to give us a 100% straight scoop as much as possible…. They could always be wrong, but being numbers folks, we go with the odds…
They were right, once again!
Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of June !
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial advisor prior to investing!
Background
The is the vocal portion of J.K. Financial, Inc. a Dallas Texas Based Fee Only Total Wealth Financial Planning Firm. Founded by John Kvale, a Dallas Texas Fee only Financial Planner and Total Wealth Manager.
Q4 2023 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Good News on Interest Rates for Pensions and Pension Recipients, What? … Don’t Fight the FED Are we Fighting the Fed? Yes … Important True-Up Reminders for Year End Deadlines i.e. 401k … Handy Cyber Tips and Tricks … RMD Age Date Changes and Others … By John Kvale CFA, CFP …
Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q4 2023 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.
Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page
Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!
Q4 2023 Newsletter
(YouTube)
Rate Increase GOOD for Pension Plans and Pension Recipients
Special thanks to Milliman and Rebecca head of medial relations for allowing us the ability to reference this fantastic data… also sourced at the end of our post/article.
Here are the top 100 pension plans, a lot of names you likely know and maybe even have a pension with… At least one family member included in this.
With higher interest rates, something we have mentioned numerous times… Notice because of a rather complex future liability projection, pension plans for the most part are FINALLY funded….YAY
Don’t Fight the Fed! Wait, are we Fighting the FED? YEP
This unusual correlation especially when the blue line is going down, represents the FED (Federal Open Market Committee) pulling money from the economy or trying to slow the Economy.
Add higher rates, at the fastest pace ever….
Interesting that participants are fighting the FED, even though they regularly quote “Don’t Fight The FED!”
Stimulus still sloshing around in the Economy…
True-Up Reminders – 401k and the Like
In the year 2023 (Currently heading towards a close) the maximum amount WE (not including matching) can contribute is $22.500 and for those either age 50 or older or turning age 50 happily in 2023, you get a nice catch-up amount of $7,500 bringing your deferred amount to a whopping $30,000!
Pro-Tip – Contribute evenly throughout the year, with a terminal amount of maximizing in late November or early December.
Pro-Trick – Similar to rushing/upping your contributions near the end of employment to maximize levels, if you are new to an employer and wish to maximize your contributions for the year, dump all you can to maximize your contributions now, with the intention of dropping that contribution level down to a normal level (see Pro-Tip above) after the turn of the calendar.
Do Not Overfill Duplicate Plan Years
Remember, if you have contributed to a plan earlier in the year via another employer, your new employer will not be able to throttle your contributions back if you happen to go over the total annual limit. Reach out for help and clarity on this!
Be Aggressive in New Plans
Lastly, in new plans, starting from scratch with new contributions, allocation should be wide open and aggressive with the hope of choppy entry points as your contributions make up the majoring of the plan and will take advantage of the ups and downs in the early years of the plan.
Cyber Reminder- Tips and Tricks
If there’s one thing, for those of us with little time or patients for a long read that we would like you to take from this article it is that most cyber intrusions come from an e-mail that has a bad actor with a hot link click, do not click on that bad hot link!
The second thing and more encouraging, most cyber security situations are not extremely complicated and are allowed by a simple letting of our guards down- see above point!
RMD Age Changes and other Important Dates
RMD (Required Minimum Distributions)
One of the most important and likely most confusing due to the recent multiple updates is the adjustment of Required Minimum Distributions (RMD) They are now mandatory to commence for those aged 73. Those turning 75 after 2033, your new RMD age is 75. Recall, these just a few years ago, moved from age 70 1/2 to 72, now to age 73 and eventually age 75. No wonder we are all confused!
Social Security Mandatory Commencement Date reminder age 70
The current maximum age that you may defer commencement of Social Security still remains at age 70, well below the new younger thresholds that we hopefully are all feeling.
The earliest one may take Social Security remains age 62, with a 25% discount to the full retirement age (FRA) benefit amount AND has a maximum earnings level of $21,240 from W-2 or 1099 (working income) not pension, investment or other non working types of income.
Have a Great Fall! Talk after the turn of the Calendar!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
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Posted in Debt - Debt Management, Donald Capone, Economy, FOMC, Forecast, General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Jen Hill, John Kvale, Market Comments, Newsletters, Personal, Podcast, Video
Tagged 401k, Bonds, Cyber, Fight the Fed, Interest Rates, Milliman, Newsletter, PBO, Pension