As mentioned last week, the plan was to visit about Rate of Change (ROC) and the amount of Capital Market Participation that is electronic – Found several great examples of this for a post soon that will be more of an Advance Analysis explanation,… These electronic participants are careless of any quick change, read headlines and act, ask questions later (really not at all!) … More on this later!
On the way to the afore mentioned informative post, the Atlanta GDP Nowcast hit the cell phone… great enough example to jump timing of the technical post…
Think of a Now Cast as an estimated outcome, in this case USA GDP (Gross Domestic Production – high level measure of Economic Growth of the US) from pouring other Economic and data points into the pot….. Clearly the Atlanta Fed’s factors are weighted such that their model is giving a grim view of the Q 1 2025 US GDP- the Blue areas on the graph are the rest of the crowds estimate… Great example graph for our discussion!
From our premier research provider, Hedgeye … they have about 30 total factors for pouring!
“Since our last update, 9 of 13 datapoints in our US GDP Nowcast have deteriorated, on the margin, while 4 have improved.“
Could be government policy i.e. Executive Tariff pivots….
Could be related to Mother Nature i.e. West Coast Fires ….
Could be uncertainty of new policies…
Could be natural Economic Cycle ….
Likely, some of all of the above and other items… No matter, the slowing data is resulting in market queasiness!!
We are on it and watching and as mentioned again last week, thanks for the great Calm Questions…and more to come on the subject!
Have a Great “Market Mystery Solved” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
AI Content Authenticity: All of the following text content has been completed by myself and has not been edited or created by AI. Occasionally we do use AI for images and will note when appropriate.
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
