After a long lethargic flat-lined Capital Market of 2017, things have finally changed, and we need to begin to get used to more normal Capital Markets.
What follows are details of what the Capital Markets have done over the last few days (yes only days) … what we should expect moving forward, along with a review of similar historical movement. Given a future that Rhymes with the past, the most important point we want to get across is this —
What we want everyone to understand is it is highly likely we do not just bounce right back and go to highs again quickly, so let’s have patience and set our expectations for an extended Capital Market search for the most appropriate level.
Ok, so you have the most likely scenario, here is why.
Current Capital Market Review
Suddenly the Capital Markets cared about something — and were WAY ahead of themselves, so they began going down!
We thought they might stop at our fancy trend line from our early post on this subject.
Nope …. participants pushed on past the trend line.
Participants decided the 200 Moving Day Average was where they should stop …
So we have a stopping spot, what happens next may be best seen by looking at the past for a possible rhyming future.
The first drop was about 24 trading days followed by another 20-25 day test in a few months.
Start to finish about six months with a move all the way back to even before a second drop.
With two hiccups during this 2012 time frame, again our weekly charts show a 2-4 months of capital market footing discovery ….
Let’s settle in for more normal, but what feels like “Rockier” times, which will likely be with us for a while.
- Economy is Good
- Global recovery is beginning
- Interest Rates are Rising but at a reasonable rate
- Consumers are feeling good
Patience will reward us!
Happy “Patience” Valentine’s day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP