The third quarter of 2018 is behind us and the original theme from the first month of the year seems still most appropriate, patience. After rocketing to an unsustainable trajectory in January, the excuse was an over use of a dangerous product, the reality looks to be, we just got too far ahead of ourselves and corrected harshly to a more reasonable trajectory.
It was the Best of Times, it was the Worst of Times
As we look forward, the best part of the year “historically” lies just in our view as we finish the year. Using history as our guide, oddly the first month of the coming quarter has been the most treacherous. Not the time to get to overzealous or glum!
Earnings Eventually Matter
In our Q4 2018 Capital Market Newsletter Article we discuss in detail the correlation of earnings and capital market movement. This obvious connection does not always hold true in the shorter term as aggressive emotions such as greed and fear overshoot constantly in both directions. Eventually the correlation re-connects and more normal heads prevail, making earnings growth and market growth work in tandem.
The fear of, or at least watching for, an inverted yield curve has grown in popularity. We discussed this item last quarter in great detail. Oddly, when many are looking for an event, it loses it’s predictability. We are not ignoring, and will continue to monitor, but we are concerned at a possible loss of predictively with the crowds of followers swelling. Predictive or not, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) has been slow and open to interest rate increases, so far, and capital markets, the economy and participants are very happy with the increases and have digested them nicely.
Bonds, most effected by interest rates, and one of the safest asset classes tend to feel the headwinds most of higher interest rates. Higher, and increasing rates are initially a headwind, but once the increases stabilize, they become a tailwind, and increased yields push more money into our pockets. This cycle is no different, other than the fact that interest rates we so unprecedented low to begin with, this temporary headwind seems stronger than in other cycles, but it is really not. Look for more details on this subject again in our coming Newsletter.
Have a good start to fall!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP