Last Friday, June 5, 2020 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its regularly schedule monthly report of hiring and firing report nicked name “The Employment Situation”
Closely followed as a broad measure of the health of the economy and the consumer, experts (so called) from all ports of finance (Economist, bankers, investment bankers, brokers) tally their estimates of what the monthly reading will be.
In all fairness, due to bread crumbs from other reports, usually the forecasts are very close and often garner a quick glance and a carry on to other items attention span.
Fridays expectations were for a loss of just over 7 million folks.
Oops – What Happens When You Miss Big?
With an expectation of ( -7 million) more job losses and announcement of +2.5 million gains, caught Market Participants WAY off guard…
Interest Rates took note as well… which is very logical, as rates go up as economic conditions expand…
Likely ahead of ourselves a bit, but heck it is a start….
Bumps most certainly still ahead… but still a start…
Have a Great “Why We Don’t Forecast Much” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP