Looks like the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell is set to start lowering rates on or around September of 2024!
With our new provider Koyfin rolling out some more graphical analytics, most notably the Yield Curve… we wanted to do a review/reminder/analysis….
The most important item to remember is the FOMC controls (for the most part) only the very short end (far left) of the yield curve!
Here is what we look like at of Aug 16, 2024 – Recall this is NOT a normal yield curve…this is Inverted, meaning short term rates are higher than long term, Abby normal (Young Frankenstein for those of age)
If we go back just four years…the curve looks correct in shape, low on left and higher on right… but hold on, this is NOT a normal curve either as the lower rates are around .25% and the 30 year (Far right) is a possibly once in a lifetime 1.44% – it (30 year) did go even lower too!
Time traveling back 10 years now… it looks more normal, with the appropriate slope, but that 30 year rate was only 3.13%!
So lets time travel back 30 years now… Ahhhh…that is it, upward slope, and a 30 year rate of 7.51%
History is there for us to review… Ignore at our own risk, review for possible rhymes in the future and edification!
There we go, logged in our digital diary for future reference…. Hard to believe the changes we have seen in the last four years!
Have a Great “Yield Curve Analysis” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
AI Content Authenticity: All of the following text content has been completed by myself and has not been edited or created by AI. Occasionally we do use AI for images and will note when appropriate.
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
