Category Archives: Debt – Debt Management

Year to Date Bankruptcies … Some Familiar, and others Not so familiar…. Visual Capitalist Follow On Credit Agency Warnings …

Break In – As mentioned in Monday’s post, we would not be surprised to see S&P downgrade Credit for companies, given there were already three downgrades for the other two big agencies…. Little did we know, later in the day Monday, S&P DID finally jump into the downgrade pool!

Timely Visual Capitalist Bankruptcy Update

Increased pressure in the Credit cycle (what the agencies are warning above) lead to Bankruptcies…

Yesterday this nice graphic landed in the inbox ! Not bombarding here, but thought it was an interesting additional view….

Bed Bath and Party City are likely the most familiar…but these are the biggies so far!

Have a Great “Credit Cycle” Update!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Moody’s Credit Agency Jumps on Board and Downgrades 10 Banks along with “Keep an Eye Out” for More ….

Just Friday we mentioned Fitch Credit Agency Played Eye Spy and downgraded the USA credit worthiness by a very small amount from AAA to AA+…. the Eye Spy was due in part to the very large government spending acceleration number that showed up in the overzealous GDP print ….

Not to be outdone, a fellow credit agency, Moody’s chimed in as well

Moody’s Downgrades 10 Banks – Keep an eye on Others

As reported here by Reuters, Moody’s jumped into the pool and downgraded a slew of banks as well as put many on watch….

As mentioned in our post on the Fitch Downgrade, the US interest rates moved up after the ratings increase…. it would be expected all banks involved to see their standards tighten as well as their borrowing costs rise as well….

Why is this important you may ask?

This second rating decrease, by Moody’s will in effect help the FOMC in their pursuit of slowing the economy. Banks will broadly tighten lending standards!!

Have a Great “Moody’s Jumps into the Pool Downgrade” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Fitch Downgrade… On the way home… More Resident Pictures… Happy Friday …

In true “I Spy” like format — come on, you remember the funny kids game … anyway, Fitch Ratings Company played “I Spy” in the last GDP number,(was much larger than expected due to this) noting a large increase in government spending….. tossed a warning shot over the bow of the government in a small downgrade of US debt from AAA to AA+…. Not surprisingly that has pushed rates higher….FOR THE TIME BEING…

With the first Friday in August… and coming back from our “Sharpening of the Saw” Trip…. We will keep today short….

But we did want to say farewell to a few more residents ..this time four legged ones!

Happy Friday – Back in the Saddle next week – Talk then!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Q3 2023 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Rate Increases re-review Forward Looking Effects- Research Affiliates Robert Arnott 10 Year Expectations … What we are doing this Summer … By John Kvale CFA, CFP …

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q3 2023 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

BREAK IN – The TDAmeritrade Charles Schwab merger will happen over Labor Day Weekend (September 5th, 2023) – Only Changes: Log in portal and account number – Expect (no reply) Legal Paperwork and emails!

Q3 2023 Newsletter

(YouTube)

Looking Forward Now with Regards to Rate Increases

Three Articles Centered around this main leading Article –

In our main lead article, we discuss the look forward expectations of NOT lowering rates as soon as many think. With higher rates, cost of capital will be more expensive for many projects, giving the Federal Reserve the desired slow down in the Economy ! Hopefully, and not too much!

Research Affiliates Robert Arnott 10 Year Expected Returns

Take note of Arnott’s powerful firm with predictions of the slower/safer Bonds earning more than the good ole SP 500 like stocks, earning and inferior 10 year return- Lots of disclaimers of course!

Higher for Longer

Asset Allocation – What’s old is New Again (Wish I would have thought of this title for the Newsletter) – Bonds may be our new Buddy – Especially if Powell is to be taken at his word!

Slow motion Slowdown – It is likely not over yet

Sneaky stimulus remains and with the fencing of Banks, this has the effect of additional stimulus in the system!

A Day in the Life and Summer Plans

While we may not talk Wall Street talk, our days are full of watchful research and fun client interactions!

The return of what we are doing this summer finally makes its way back into the Newsletter – we hope you enjoy!

Have a Great Summer! Talk in the Fall!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Robert Kaplan Speaks Candidly, Echoes Our Main Thoughts for the Newsletter – NICE – There is Still Stimulus out there and Higher for Longer!

The Forward-Guidance podcast review, recommended from one of my coveted study buddy groups, a week or so ago!

With downtime over the holiday weekend and the newsletter not being in print just yet… Robert Kaplan’s comments from a podcast came in very much in line with some of the articles in our coming Q 3 2023 newsletter, as such we had to bring you up to speed on this podcast.  NICE!

Recall Robert Kaplan was a Dallas Federal Reserve President, before getting caught up in a political issue and he along with several other members ended up resigning. 

What stands out about this podcast is the candor that Kaplan gives, which is what we are always looking for. Is it because this is a less than hugely popular podcast ? … although it will make my regular check for subject matter from now on, Or it is due to the resignation which would make Kaplan never available for public service again? …so he has nothing to lose period. Does not matter the reason his candor again is what grabbed attention. 

The just over one-hour podcast which can be found here (Forward Guidance), had three important points to bring to your attention: 

There’s still stimulus flowing in through the system- Again one of our articles in the coming Q 3 2023 newsletter speaks about the ERC or employee retention credit, Kaplan mentioned specifically talking to many mayors of many cities across the United States which have an abundance amount of stimulus capital still on their balance sheet that must be spent before 2025. hmmmmm 

Higher interest rates for longer should be the baseline assumption according to Kaplan– Again this is the subject matter of another of our newsletter articles. Kaplan speaks to the podcaster candidly and says capital markets even though we were just beginning a credit cycle (Tightening of lending standards, less loans, higher interest rates and lower margins, increased defaults all the intent of the federal reserve’s higher rates to slow the economy)- while capital markets and participants are pricing a lower interest rate at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, Kaplan cautions participants to take Jerome Powell at his word. The only thing that would make him change his posture is some large event created by the further progress of the aforementioned credit cycle. 

It is a good old boys club– In an aha moment that we always thought existed, Kaplan slips and says his dissenting vote in September of 20 was a frowned upon event by Jerome Powell! However he quickly corrected himself and said I will let Powell speak for himself, but the rabbit was out of the hat, Kaplan realizing this went on to say that the general spirit of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is everybody agrees and falls in line with a distinct hierarchy of ranking. We could all remember and learn that there is a very much pecking order where the king is the chair, and the pawns are supposed to follow. 

Apologies for the length of this post, as mentioned with some time off and the dictation in hand, along with a total complement to our pending newsletter, wanted to bring this to your attention.

Have a great “Inside the Federal Reserve via Robert Kaplan” day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

College/Student Loan Update – Forgiveness at Supreme Court ? … Payment Commencement Clock Ticking (60 days) …

With the passage of the debt ceiling, the lines have been drawn on a very controversial subject:

Student Loans and Forgiveness!

As a quick refresher, we pulled this from a prior post just to give everyone an idea of just how big of a balance (and growing) this is… Here is the post from before

Student Loan Forgiveness

Literally, any day now we could hear more on this (or not of course) ….but here are the important parts as we know them:

  • The Supreme Court is reviewing the constitutionality of this
  • Most likely amount, seems to be a $20k forgiveness total per student

Commencement of Payments

Payments look to commence (if nothing changes) in late August/Early September…

Looking at our chart above, it would not surprise many to learn, a full on commencement of payments would mean $300 to $400 per month for some 35-40 million young Americans. These payments have been waived for almost two years.

Lots of moving parts. Lots of possible changes. Lots of implications.

Have a Great “Student Loan Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Rates… Fastest Increase Review … Looking Forward for Effects … Newsletter Precursor …

This is an updated chart from our favorite buds Visual Capitalist

Last year we spoke of the speed of interest rate increases a lot… given the unique pace at which rates increased AND the super low level of (zero is about as low as you can go) starting point … it became a shock to the financial system….

So in all likelihood, rates are near their top for the foreseeable future….what lies ahead?

We will have more on this in the coming Newsletter but rates 500 times higher than they were just a few quarters ago AND looking to stay higher… there are major implications..

Debt/Financing costs higher =

Better safe investment returns aka Fixed Income/Bonds

More costs to debtors (lower returns for those using debt because of higher costs)

End of companies requiring very low costs to make profits

Have a Great “Fastest Rate Increase Effect” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Debt Ceiling History/Thoughts … Pools Ready to Open in our Neighborhoods … Memorial Day on the Horizon …

Would you believe or be surprised to know the US had raised the debt ceiling aka Increased their Credit line some 90 times since the 20th Century? Probably not….

Most including ourselves believe this will get resolved… but there may be drama…. seems more the norm …

By Wikideas1 – Own work https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny, CC0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=131990039

We know the history very well and will not bore you with the things that have happened in the last three or so decades…. just know headlines may be …. ahhhh… dramatic next week!

Speaking of dramatic …. but on a more fun note… Who let the pools out ? Next week!

Memorial Day Weekend Beckons

Next weekend marks the opening of pools, the very wonderful remembrance of those that allow us to safely ponder things like debt ceilings and a long weekend to boot…

Ahhh…that is all next week …. today is a Fun Friday, near the end of the school year for our clan… Enjoy and talk next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Kastle Back to Work… Stuck on Half Way! Effects beginning to be seen …

It has been a while since we previewed one of our favorite resources from the lock down. A chance article, below, rekindled our attention. We have added more observations.

Per the article:

A San Francisco office building was worth $300 million before the pandemic. Now, it could sell for only $60 million — a perfect example of why downtowns are in trouble

Kastle Systems Analysis and Barometer

Latest release

Publicly trade REIT – Real Estate Investment Trust – Actual Company withheld purposely (Public Venue) – Specializes in office space Assets

About a 75% drop in value. Not sure if the office headcount stays away, but certain office buildings are bearing the brunt!

Have a Great “Kastle Office Asset Analysis” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

CoCo Bonds – Contingent Convertible aka AT 1 Bonds – Advanced Analysis Part 3 of ? BREAK IN: Do NOT add to a Bank Run – Easier than you think to Accidentally Do!

DO NOT DOG ON BANKS

BREAK IN:

At a welcome home family dinner last night, the fact that causing a Bank Run is illegal was brought up . Huh?

Yes it is basically illegal to cause harm to a Bank…. aka create a Bank Run… In today’s Social Media frenzy, this could come in the form of a like, sharing a post or forwarding something to a person of influence .. YIKES…

This is getting LOOOONG… so here is the cliff note version: Coco bonds are European instruments (Not USA) with weird exercise rights that can evaporate an investors money if a Bank gets in trouble. These clauses have been invoked already on a European bank, causing renewed knowledge of these instruments and their weird rights.

Back to our Regularly Scheduled Post

One of the absolute favorite things about the Financial world and our industry is the vast amount of diverse products, structures, programs and for that matter super cult like popularity of instruments that come and go throughout the space of time…. all of which make for constant learning- just continuous!.

Our advanced analysis series is meant to cover very complicated items for our high level collective knowledge…. This is a HEAVY one, just as a heads up!

Advanced Analysis Part 3 – Meet the Coco aka AT-1 Bond – A European thing

Coco’s sizzle because they can essentially be converted at the company’s whim, leaving little control to the actual bond holder!

Bonds are debt instruments unlike Equity (stock ownership) in “MOST” cases that have a front row ownership to the company. Said another way, if something happens to the Company a Bond holder is in most cases the very first person to get paid. Bond holders loan the company money only to hopefully get paid interest on that money and eventually the return of that money in the future.

Convertible Bonds as they are most commonly known, give the bond holder the right to convert or exchange those bonds for another ownership strand of the company. Coco bonds are converted if the Banks hit certain levels, which are stress levels, unlike normal convertibles which are fun/happy levels.

When Coco bonds are converted, investors may actually be taking a step back in ownership (Debt to Equity) have no control in when this happens, and may have large losses immediately for doing so.

Coco bonds do pay more interest, but as some (European banks) are finding out recently, this is not near enough to cover the uncontrolled convert at a less than happy time in the investments life.

Chopped this down a bit, as it is a Monday and wanted to get the Break In to everyone… Just trying to explain, in a very small world, that events across the pond, weird as they may be, have ripple effect here in the USA!

Have a Great “Coco Bond Understanding” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents