For those like myself who remember the original Bob Barker Price is Right, there is a new, fresh off the press, CFA Survey. In Price is Right format, The Survey Says …
CFA Professional Investors Survey
Yesterday the results of a global professional investor survey in which Donald and I were a part, were released. We will go into greater detail in non-Friday coming weeks and possibly our next newsletter. Here are three favorite charts.
Professionals across the board expects the Global Economy to Grow! (Below)
They all expect their own country to grow the best….home biased ?? (Below)
Notice how each regions home country has the highest chart. At least everyone is confident in their own country … maybe too confident, for sure homeward biased!
Trust is not too high?? (Below)
This last chart is most puzzling as it indicates only a lukewarm amount of trust. As professional investors we are trained to be skeptical, but not this much. Trust but verify???
Have a Happy Friday and a Good Weekend!
John Kvale CFA, CFP
PS Am I the only one having trouble catching this fast-moving/shortened holiday season.. Wow ????
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com http://www.street-cents.com 8222 Douglas Ave # 590 Dallas, TX 75225
Survey of Over 8000 Individual Investors Next 10 Year Investment Expectations – WRONG! – Natixis 2021 Survey
We recently ran across a very interesting survey. What caught our eye on this survey was the large number surveyed, 8550 individuals in over 24 countries, all with at least $100k of investments in Capital Markets.
The second item that caught our eyes, were some of the jaw dropping expectations of these investors. Thankfully, the survey is also given to professional investors and a neat comparison can easily be made!
Natixis Global Individual Investor Survey
Here in the 2021 Natixis Global Individual Investor Survey, some eye popping results caught our eye. As a side note there is a similar survey done with Institutional Survey as well.
The most recent survey found these collective individual investors expecting 13% returns over the next 10 years, ABOVE inflation….or a 14.5% total 10 year average!
We never make guarantee calls, as there are not any…. but we would find it EXTREMELY unlikely to meet these expectations. Not only that, but as you can see from the chart, the returns follow what we call “Rear View Mirror Forecasting” which is using the most recent past to forecast the future … rather than using true forecasting techniques.
Another concern arising from this information is with this expectation a possible under saving for the future and too low of risk expectations that may be inferred with these results.
Comparing the Individual versus the professional expectation of the next 10 years of returns, comes up with a very large variance.
Professional investors are expecting a much more reasonable 5.3% return. Clearly professionals are not using “Rear View Mirror Forecasting”
Individuals expect 13% over inflation for the next 10 years with Professionals expecting 5.3% – while we wish individuals are correct, it’s very unrealistic … Pro’s are likely much more accurate!
We will code this one Forecast and look back in 10 years to see who was closer! Yep a 10 year lookback….
Let the clock start ticking!
Have a Great “Individual versus Pros Expectation” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents
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Posted in Forecast, General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Retirement Planning
Tagged Investor Survey, Natixis, Natixis Investor Survey, Survey