Category Archives: Retirement Planning

Make it to Year 2030 and You will Likely Live Over Age 100 – From Mauldin SIC Conference

As noted with our excited post last week, we are once again in the throws of the John Mauldin SIC – Strategic Investment Conference.

So far this years most ear catching moment has nothing to do with finance but comes from two Doctors who are repeat speakers from last year to give the group a Covid related update.

Their predictions last year (think at a time where a lot of uncertainty abounded) were spot on and almost unbelievable accuracy. So accurate they hardly needed to update their presentation.

Knowing we teased you with the headline, stay with us please … and take a quick moment to review these two Doctors backgrounds/Credibility! – Pretty Awesome stuff!

These guys are not show boaters!

So maybe not Dr. Culver’s best look … think super smart professor we have all had in our life!

Make it to 2030 and You will Likely Live Over Age 100

My mouth almost dropped when I heard these two stately Doctors utter the words above.

There is a super cool chart that the Doctors had in their slide deck, and of course it is the ONLY slide that had “Not for Reproduction” …. so in honoring their request … here is a recreated slide from their predictions.

Since 1850 average mortality has increase 2.5 years every ten years.

From 2020 to 2030 the Doctors believe we will see an increase age expectancy of 30 years, yep THIRTY!

That is the huge jump in the chart on the very far right upper expected mortality age 112 !

Much of this is due to the expected pull forward of knowledge earned from Covid and the various Vaccines.

The Doctors repeatedly mentioned that they expect a youthful elder years as well, not just extended longevity!

Recommended Life Style and Personal Health Monitoring

Here is a quick Legend for the abbreviations:

  • Blood Pressure
  • Body Mass Index
  • Fasting Blood Sugar
  • Cholesterol
  • No Tobacco
  • Stress Management – VERY INTERESTING! Newly added by the Doctors

For the record, those are not low hurdles using my own situation as an example!

Look for a more detailed review of this in the coming Newsletter!

Have a Great “Make it to 2030, live to over 100” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Musk Hosts SNL … Mauldin SIC Conference … Robert Kaplan Talks Taper

Being probably the least fan of SNL – Saturday Night Live – in our family, it is on the calendar to attempt to stay up this weekend and watch Elon Musk host SNL. Once announced there has been some grumblings among actors, a fiery Musk Tweet and fiery Tweet response that are likely no more than showmanship, but like many I can’t wait to see the show!

Ratings increase? Bet so!

John Maulden SIC conference

Last year the John Mauldin SIC – Strategic Investor Conference – was available virtually … and once again it is this year. This conference lasts for two weeks and started this week … has close to 50 high-powered guests, with complete replays and slide decks … we are excited to present the high points of some of these speakers just as we did earlier this week with the Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting and our Q 3 2020 Newsletter

Taper Talk – Floating the Balloon ?

Local favorite Dallas Federal Reserve chair Robert Kaplan who is not a voting member of the FOMC but still remains on the board this year was the first to mention the word Taper – Well he didn’t really mention taper but mentioned the slowing of asset purchases.

No more than a few days later Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also mentioned something with regards to asset prices and the possibility of slowing purchases.

With a rather yawning capital market response, it would not be beyond a reasonable belief that they are floating some of these out to see market responses.

Look for more comments from us on this and a very watchful eye for more speakers slowly adjusting the aircraft carrier.

Friday

Ahhhh… but today is a Friday heading into a wonderful spring weekend and a possibly very entertaining SNL skit tomorrow night!

Enjoy, Talk to you Next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Q 1 2021 Review – Three V’s: Vaccine, Volume of Money, Valuation

Vaccines, Volume of Money, Valuations 

With the continued increase of the number of people getting the vaccine a much-welcomed sigh of relief is being felt across the country and most of the globe. Thankfully thus far the variance seems not to pose a terrible threat and most continue even post vaccine to take the appropriate precautions. This is leading to a slow Opening of the country and a light at the end of the tunnel heading back to some type of normalcy. 

Volume of Money 

The Federal Reserve (FOMC) led by Chairman Jerome Powell continue to buy assets at the rate of $120 billion a month. With a main goal of lowering the Unemployment rate, these funds of course are giving a boost to Capital Markets and providing massive volume liquidity. 

Additionally, the Fed has short term rates at zero and has stated they intend to keep them there for some time. This is also a stimulus for certain parts of the economy, but also a boosting effect on Asset Prices. 

With Fed controlled short interest rates being held low, longer term rates, notably on the 10-year US Treasury have been moving up in minor protest by bond vigilantes that economic stimulus may be too much, fortunately at this time there seems to be no effect. 

With the FED on record saying that short term rates are deemed to stay low, their first move back to normalcy maybe to pair back the purchases.  Our interest will be, when, and if this occurs, and more importantly, capital market participants reactions.  

Valuations 

As mentioned, multiple times in our blog at www.street-cents.com and again our Q2 2021 Newsletter, valuations by almost any metric are stretched. 

While valuations may be a more somber note, the re-opening and vaccine completion rates should dribble into corporate earnings, the ultimate driver of capital markets and possibly provide a wonderful “Grow into our Valuation” affect. 

If you asked us for our candid opinion, we would like capital markets to trend sideways while we grow into our valuations. Continued rise in capital markets could lead to a bumpier ride once the Fed adjust their policy. 

We of course will be watching carefully!  �

Sincerely,

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Q2 2021 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Video Audio Podcast Review – Reminders ! By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q2 2021 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

Q 2 2021 Newsletter

(YouTube)

Social Security Earnings Record Check Reminder

In our lead article of the Q 2 2021 Newsletter, we remind all of the importance of checking your Social Security Record, no matter your thoughts on the longevity of Social Security….

Additionally we walk you through step by step on how to do this and also how to set up your SSA on line account!

Secure Act – Possibly Forgotten But Important Changes

With the passing of the SECURE act, the old age of 70.5 mandatory RMD (Required Minimum Distribution) was pushed to age 72.

Many times, it is not appropriate to wait until this age, depending on the location of some assets. EX Large IRA compared to other non iRA investment, Tax Brackets, One Off income Years

For those where it is appropriate to wait until the latest possible date, you can actually wait until the year AFTER you turn 72 as long at you take the distribution before April 1 of the year AFTER turning 72.

Warning, in almost all cases we discourage this last maximum delayed technique as it ends up forcing two RMD’s in the same tax year of your 73 birthday.

Buffet Valuation Indicator

Warren Buffett, the usually closed lip investor, years ago mentioned his macro Valuation indicator which is shown below.

It has never flashed “Over Valuation” as much as it is now!

Expecting tremendous Earnings Growth to help turn this indicator around and head the other direction!

We hope you enjoy … talk to you in the Summer!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Why You Should Check Your Social Security Earnings Credits No Matter Your Age

While many may argue contrary to our fantastic Social Security speaker whom we have had twice now Mr. Tom Clark who assures us that Social Security will always be there, many do not believe this for various reasons. 

No matter your beliefs or age we highly encourage you to check your Social Security Statement and most importantly your Social Security Earnings Record.  

Earnings Benefit Credit Statement

Do not be concerned if just as this example, does not show your 2020 earnings posted as of yet there have been some delays and normally this is not posted at an early time in the year anyway . 

What we want to be concerned about is if there are gaps in our earnings history or a partial credit (change of employers) that should have been credited. there are many reasons that this can occur such as just a lost document in the Mail or an employer was bought out or closed and did not report your hard earned earnings period. 

How Do I Find This Statement? 

In 1999, the Social Security Administration mailed a paper copy to everyone every year. Budget cuts a dozen years later stopped this handy paper copy, leaving all of us to easily forget to double check our statement annually. 

For the record according to the Administration folks at age 60 are supposed to receive a paper copy, but our informal poll shows a low hit ratio. 

Not to worry, it is not that hard set up an account, ESPECIALLY if it is your first time. 

Go to www.ssa.gov and either log into your account or create an account and pull down your statement…

Oh, keep your credentials safe … lost mine and was a huge pain getting logged back into the site!

Have a Great “Social Security Earnings History Check Reminder” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

January 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our January 2021 (First Monthly Review of the New Year) Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

January 2021 Video – First of Year

YouTube

Financial Planning Tips

Required Minimum Distributions Now 72

As mentioned here in our post, do not feel bad if you lost track of changes, as in just over 12 months there were THREE – yes three major laws implemented.

Late December of 2019, the SECURE act (Setting Every Community Up for Retirement) among other things, upped the first mandatory RMD (Required Minimum Distributions) from Qualified/IRA/401k type plans to 72!

The Covid 19 related Cares Act passed in late March of 2020 nullified RMD’s for all of 2020, making for some confusion.

Second Stimulus Check Update

In this post, we review the new Stimulus check amounts, and where you can CAREFULLY go to check the status of your check…. here are the highlights…

Generally, U.S. citizens and resident aliens who are not eligible to be claimed as a dependent on someone else’s income tax return are eligible for this second payment. Eligible individuals will automatically receive an Economic Impact Payment of up to $600 for individuals or $1,200 for married couples and up to $600 for each qualifying child. Generally, if you have adjusted gross income for 2019 up to $75,000 for individuals and up to $150,000 for married couples filing joint returns and surviving spouses, you will receive the full amount of the second payment.

Here is the link to the US Government tracking site:

https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/get-my-payment

Once open need to Click on “Get My Payment” Tab

Be very careful when opening this site to NOT allow your browser to jump to any other site than that associated with the IRS as you will be asked for confidential information!

Capital Market Comments

Buffett Back Of Napkin Valuation Metric

After happily receiving an “OK” to reprint graphs directly from the CEO of this industry publication – Look Out, there are tons of Great Articles that we look forward to bringing you!

Up first, a great broad Buffett “Back of the Napkin” Market Value Metric- This is the Market Capitalization of the S&P 500 divided by the US Gross Domestic Production…. This measure has never been this high before- sending a warning signal for Current Valuations.

“Price is what you pay, value is what you get!”

Chart Via Jill Mislinski 1-5-21 (Advisor Perspectives)

Happy Start to the New Year!

Have a Great Day and Super Start to the New Year!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Warren Buffett, Back of the Napkin Market Valuation Tracker … Part 1 in Market Valuation Review Series

With on-line investment animal spirits accelerating in some of their antic spirits, we thought it a good time for a calmer, longer term view of some high level market valuation views.

Oh … have not heard of the animal spirits? …. Let me digress for just a minute. A collective group of folks are ganging up on companies that have large short interest. Short Interest? This means company’s who’s stocks have large amounts of investors betting the company will go bankrupt or at least eventually lose value. As we say often, when everyone is on one side of the trade/theory/belief, this can cause vulnerability on the opposite side. When a group gets together and buys in mass, a largely shorted company stock, it can cause a short squeeze, similar to the afore mentioned Tesla…

You may say “So What” and that is fair, but this can cause other areas of the market to become frothy (which we have been speaking of before) and it also speaks to the recklessness of a investor behaviors and their disregard for any type of safety.

Buffett VERY High Level Market Indicator Flashing Caution

Warren Buffett aka the Oracle of Omaha due to his investing prowess, rarely gives any of his broad market comments and always qualifies that he has no idea where the markets will go… as do we!

BUT,

Price is what you pay, Value is what we get!

Chart Via Jill Mislinski 1-5-21 (Advisor Perspectives)

That’s an all time high/expensive aka NOT CHEAP- just saying!

Let’s be careful out there! Anyone remember what cop show this quote was from?

Have a Great “Buffett Indicator Flashing Red” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

RMD (Required Minimum Distributions) Changed to Age 72 Reminder … Stimulus Payment Method Reminder … Friday!

Very late in 2019, which sometimes seems like an eternity ago, and with the waiving of mandatory distributions in 2020, due to several comments and questions this week we wanted to briefly remind folks.

RMD – Required Minimum Distributions Commence at age 72 Now!

This week we had several occasions to discuss and remind that as of December 2019 due to the Secure Act RMD’s (Required Minimum Distribution‘s) were moved up from age 70 1/2 to age 72. We will talk about this in much greater detail in our next quarter newsletter along with a more detailed post just directed at the RMD new age requirement and the various other items that were adjusted by the afore mentioned Secure Act!

Stimulus Payment Method Reminder

Also due to repeat conversations …always happy to have as you give us terrific content and others are certainly in the same situation … ok digressing… this week about the method of payment for the stimulus funds. As a reminder the IRS essentially issues us a rebate for the stimulus funds as such they’re using the banking instructions that they had on file for our 2019 tax return. If you had no banking instructions on file they will be mailing the stimulus.

Friday

OK sorry for being a little heavy on a rainy Friday .. here in Texas it’s been very overcast for almost a week which seems like a year this time of the year, but that’s OK enjoy your Friday … have a great weekend will talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Our Goals Template … So Simple You Might Like it (KISS) …

This time of the year garners, new years resolutions, new goals, and all kinds of wonderful ideas for improvement in ourselves ….

Our Secret for Goals – KISS

Over the years, we have used huge, almost unlimited goals (you can insert New Year’s Resolutions here if you want) worksheets, templates, questionnaires and the like… only to be disappointed in short order, because they were so overwhelming, we couldn’t possibly meet the challenge….

KISS – Keep it Simple Silly

Shhh, don’t tell anyone, we have found a simple secret that has been working for us ….

Everyone at the office and the homestead have to participate… yes even the 13 year old…

So simple, but effective…

Tell me the at least three items you are most proud of in the past year and at least three that need improvements…

At the office we do a professional and personal version… do as many as you like, but the simplicity and positive tone seems to give it legs… at least for us!

Have a Great “Easy Goal Setting” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Q 4 2020 Review and Annual Private Policy

It’s hard to believe the final quarter of the year included an Election, multiple vaccines, the commencement of vaccine shots and near the end of the quarter, a second stimulus package for the year 2020. Wow!

Three Major Acts in a Little Over Twelve Months

If we look back just a little over twelve months, three major bills, The Secure Act, passed in late 2019, but left in the shadows by lasty years events. Then the Cares Act late first quarter 2020, followed by the Appropriations Act of 2021, which was an extension of the Cares Act. If you are not confused yet (or do not even remember some of these), congratulate yourself, most are! Not to worry, we will be reviewing all of these over the year as the much forgotten, Secure Act will have multiple planning techniques and mandates that once again may have been forgotten.

Who let the dogs out? Or Maybe Better Said, The Dogs Continued to Cheer!

Capital markets bullied by federal reserve purchases and anticipations of good news coming from a vaccine, in true Capital Market form did cheer much of the news, but not as much as many had thought, mostly because it had already been anticipated.

As we had mentioned multiple times, Capital Markets are likely well ahead of themselves currently which may make for tougher rowing in the near term, but just as clothes purchased a little too large for that growing teenager, Capital Markets with an expected economic recovery, should be able to grow into their overzealous clothes. However, with current stretched valuations, negative surprises may be met with more volatility due to the priced-to-perfection levels currently, once again making us happy we are conservative and diversified investors.

Interest Rate Watch

One thing we will be watching closely are interest rates, and their levels, as the economy begins to come back on line. The Federal Reserve is squarely focused on keeping interest rates down through their purchases. Should interest rates begin to rise or should the FED ease off (or even give speak of ease) of the pedal and interest rates rise on their own, especially quickly, this could be a headwind to Capital Markets and other assets. Not to worry, we will be watching and letting you know what we see and taking appropriate actions as needed.

In Closing

Your Fourth Quarter summary is enclosed on the front page of this report we have included our most recent investment allocation from your Investment Policy Statement. This is also the time we attach our Private Policy Statement for the year, along with our opportunity to offer our latest ADV filings and Client Relationship Summary (Form CRS); Requests for review will be accepted via phone, mail or email, and mailed immediately upon request.

Sincerely,

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

J.K. Financial, Inc.

PRIVACY POLICY NOTICE

Our Promise to You

As a client of J.K. Financial, Inc., you share both personal and financial information with us.  Your privacy is important to us, and we are dedicated to safeguarding your personal and financial information.

Information Provided by Clients 

In the normal course of doing business, we typically obtain the following non-public personal information about our clients:

  • Personal information regarding our clients’ identity such as name, address and social security number;
  • Information regarding securities transactions effected by us; and
  • Client financial information such as net-worth, assets, income, bank account information and account balances.

How We Manage and Protect Your Personal Information

We do not sell information about current or former clients to third parties, nor is it our practice to disclose such information to third parties unless requested to do so by a client or client representative or, if necessary, in order to process a transaction, service an account or as permitted by law

In order to protect your personal information, we maintain physical, electronic and procedural safeguards to protect your personal information.  Our Privacy Policy restricts the use of client information and requires that it be held in strict confidence.

Client Notifications

We are required by law to annually provide a notice describing our privacy policy.  In addition, we will inform you promptly if there are changes to our policy.

Please do not hesitate to contact us with questions about this notice.