Category Archives: Retirement Planning

First Quarter 2023 Review, Advanced Analysis Pilot, Tax Season, Interest Rate Anniversary

Dear Investor:

Putting Q1 of the year (2023) behind us, compared to last year at this time, seemed straight forward. recall last year at this time, we had just began interest rate hikes.

As the calendar turned we began searching for a similar series to last years’ “Back to Basics”, due to the popularity, comments, and sharing that occurred with this multiple series.

By luck or accident, we landed upon the antithesis like series called “Advanced Analysis” in part due to the current economic cycle and the nearing of the end.

Advanced Analysis Pilot

Our Pilot/Part 1 of the series was extremely timely and focused around M2 a broad economic measurement of money sloshing around the financial system. This is discussed in greater detail in our Q2 Newsletter at a very high level. Whether lucky, or preeminent, our observation, was to watch out for more high risk debt players in the capital markets and especially junk bonds. This fact seems to be occurring much faster than originally though.

Tax Season – Hints and Reminders

As we turn to Q2 of the year in what seems like expeditious fashion, it is tax season.  We once again call your attention to our Q2 Newsletter as there are some great last minute tips not only looking forward to this year, but also things available that may help last year’s taxes.

Interest Rate Anniversary – Most Likely Nearing an End

As mentioned in the intro, within the last two weeks we have just passed the start of the interest rate cycle, which was the fastest on a percentage basis we have ever seen The US economy and the global economy for that matter, operate much more like an aircraft carrier then a ski boat in their change of direction. The financial sector seems to be in the early innings with other parts of the economy much later in the economic game cycle. We will get through the slowdown eventually with all parts of the economy and move forward.

Have a great spring. Talk to you in the summer!

Sincerely,

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Enclosure (2023 Report)

Q2 2023 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Tax Reminders – Still time for 2022 Savings … M2 Pilot Advanced Analysis Series Review … By John Kvale CFA, CFP …

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q2 2023 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

BREAK IN : From Parting Thoughts in the Newsletter

If you are not receiving our street-cents.com blog posts weekly Monday, Wednesday and Fri-day, please reach out and let us know. We have entered the late cycle portion of this economic slowdown and items are moving much quicker than our quarterly newsletter so we are posting frequent and very important items amongst our sometimes-humorous articles for your review and knowledge.

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

Q2 2023 Newsletter

(YouTube)

Last Minute Tax Planning and Reminders

After a small top of the mind reminder that it is ok to pay taxes, we do not want to pay zero today and then pay at a much higher rate in the future, we certainly do not want to pay ANY more than we have to, we go into several reminders….

The SEP and the Spousal IRA – two things we can do now that will help last years taxes….

Important Reminder about reporting :

Just because we did not receive a tax form personally, does not mean that the IRS did not receive some type of notification of that taxable event! If you had a transaction, usually of some out of the ordinary type, that you did not receive a tax form for, we are not out of the woods and you should report it.

Lastly, comments about the possible rolling of 529 into Roth… the answer is still up in the air with additional legal clarity on this… but it cannot start until 2024 anyway!

Happy Anniversary Rate Increases

While hard to believe, the monumental rate increases (fastest of a life time in %) just started about a year ago

M2 Broad Liquidity Measure Tightens

In another – not kidding here – never seen before, M2 one of the broadest measures of liquidity, turns negative and makes our Pilot Advanced Analysis Series…

First spoken about in January, the effects are being felt through the financial system.. but not where we had expected so far….

Have a Great Finally Here Spring! Talk in the Summer!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Fed Week, Tough Decisions … New “Happy Bank” Back Stop Facility – The BTFP – Bank Term Funding Loan Program … Bank Headlines Continue – Reminder Thought On Late Cycle Headlines …

A while back we mentioned the FOMC – Federal Open Market Committee, lead by Jerome Powell were in a Pickle .. as at that time one of their regional banks had a research report out that GDP- Gross Domestic Production -Economic Growth indicator – was dropping fast and they were going to raise interest rates against a hot CPI = Consumer Price Index – blunt inflation gauge which would exacerbate the situation.

Fast forward to today and that Pickle is not any better…. maybe even more dill! With the afore mentioned Part 1 Advance Analysis M2 review showing dramatically dropping or the pulling of liquidity out of the system, bank fatigue has been seen and felt and here our comments on Banks being a slave to confidence for solvency.

On Wednesday of this week, March 22. 2023 the FOMC is bound by their goal of slowing that sticky inflation we are all seeing, especially at the grocery store, and best measured by the CPI … BUT, this additional rate increase will add fuel to the fire of less liquidity, AND on top of that our neighbors across the pond just raised rates .50% last week, albeit from a much lower 3.00 to 3.50% rate….currently the US rate is 4.75% …

We did say Pickle ? Right….

Enter the BTFP – Bank Term Funding Loan Program – Happy Bank Program

On March 12, 2023 the Federal Reserve Created the BTFP as another backstop for possible Bank Fatigue ..

Press Release

March 12, 2023

Federal Reserve Board announces it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors

For release at 6:15 p.m. EDT

This new program is a sort of Fed Discount Window on Steroids, meant to improve Bank confidence.

Quick History

Long ago the FED (going back in loose form to the 1920’s – the start of the Fed) started a program for Bank help during stressful times, the Fed Discount Window –

Fed Discount Window –

  • Operation of last resort for a bank
  • Overnight deposit help
  • Anonymous for two years
  • 30 day length, but historically has been lengthened to 90 days
  • Pledge of assets for security – Treasury Securities of all Maturity among other items that are held at par (even value, no gain or loss) or better

BTFP – Bank Term Funding Loan Program

All of the above but the following additions:

  • On Year in Length maximum holding period
  • Pledge of asset securities that may be less than par aka at a loss

The last bullet is the most important and lending a helpful hand from the Fed’s fastest in history rate increase…. as mentioned repeatedly, increase of rates are a headwind to Fixed income aka Bonds, especially longer term bonds….

Some Banks may be seeing a need for immediate liquidity due to loss of confidence and liquidity drain, so this new program essentially gives them liquidity to meet those demands if needed and may have negative assets due to the fast fast rate increases!

Headlines Continue

While this is being written – Sunday late morning in between Newsletter Articles, UBS a Swiss neighbor of Credit Suisse has made a much telegraphed offer to buy their friend out… no idea what the market will make of this starting tonight as overseas markets open…. but something just crossed the mind that we have mentioned many times before…. and may be applicable….

“Headlines are always the worst near the end of the Cycle!”

Have a Great “Heads Up for a Busy Week” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

February 2023 – Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – Tax Preparation(s) and Reminders – ODTE’S (What?) – Advanced Analysis Series – When Good Economic News is Bad – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our February 2023 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

February 2023 Video –


YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

All About Taxes or the Getting Ready for the Processing of Personal 1040’s

Corrected 1099 Reminder

Just last Friday we reminded of the Corrected 1099 time frames …. and NOT to rush your taxes if you have after tax accounts that generate the all encompassing 1099 Misc and Int Tax Forms ….

With originals due on or around the end of February …. aka NOW – hah The good ole Corrected’s are a few weeks out yet… not to worry we will let you know who those lucky ones are that get a Corrected and a headcount that let’s us know if those early planners/filers may be safe to go forward !

IRS Pointer and J.K. Financial, Inc. Important Reminder too

Also, early in the month here, which may seem like and eternity ago (or not) we highlighted an IRS heads up email about prepping for Taxes AND we added our most important thought, which has come into play multiple times already this season…hence the happy repeat and acknowledgment :

” … We would add, just because you did not receive a tax notice, DOES NOT mean the IRS did not and is looking for the appropriate notation on your tax return (Huge amount of time this occurs with cashing Series EE bonds) … a missing item is an easy automated paper letter audit….and as mentioned here absolutely requires a response …”

Capital Market Comments – Advanced Analysis Series Begins

ODTE’S — Zero Dated to Expire Options – Part Two of our Advanced Analysis Series

Here in this Post we talk about a VERY heavy topic …. ODTE (Zero Dated to Expire Options) their unusual quantities, as well as their possible Capital Market manipulation …. not only that, but this post also is Part 2 of our Multiple part series that we intend to do this year… in addition, here is a screencast video during market hours to help explain our point too…

When “Good” News can be Bad – Fast Economic Reminders

In another reminder like post, here we speak of when “Good” News can be seen as bad due to the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) attempt to slow the economy…

The good news is from this report lots of jobs and more than expected…. Bad News… Fed may continue to be aggressive in slowing the economy… aka Higher short term rates…

Two year at the time was 4.41% now 4.81% a LARGE move for such a short term of 2 years!

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of March!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

January 2023 – YES Already One Month Down – Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – Roth Donation – Homestead – Contra Rally reminder – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our January 2023 … YEP 2023 !!! Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

New Laptop – Looks Like the Old One – But not so much!

January 2023 Video – Note New Intro and Theme Music


YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Give a kid/Young Adult a Roth if they Meet the restrictions

By blending a couple of Tax laws and having at least $6500 in earnings, a young adult may be just the right recipient of a gift, but to a Roth Retirement plan rather than for spending….

Gifts up to $17k per person are free of gift/estate tax issues – blend that with at least the Roth amount of earnings and a donation directly to a Roth can be a super gift, all of which we discuss here in our January post!

Purchase a New Home last Year – Check that Homestead Exemption

In one of our annual reminders, in this post we once again remind those that purchase a new home last year, that if they are in the home as of January 1 in most/many cases, you may be eligible for a Homestead Deduction aka – Property tax savings….

We also updated a large but not complete slew of state related adjustments – thanks Wikipedia!

Capital Market Comments

Watch the Contra Rally – They can be very deceiving!

With a suddenly happy faced Capital Market, we remind ourselves and everyone else Contra Rallies can seem very soothing, but often times their main result is to have you let your guard down and draw one into a sudden overconfident situation… NO biting…

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of February!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Give a Kid a Roth … A Donor’s Heads up/Reminder!

A while back we first came across the neat Tax/Retirement/Donation/Savings technique utilizing low/early career income relatives (think young kids/adults) of basically helping them fund a Roth IRA.

Give a Kid a Roth – Blending Tax Techniques to Accomplish

We all know starting early greatly helps our future retirement planning chances… Marry that to tax free growth AND under CURRENT Tax laws, Tax Free withdraws, and we have a neat plan.

Let’s blend some tax techniques and get this accomplished:

In the year 2023 we can give $17k to basically anyone without causing a Gift tax event…. the max for young earnings is $6500 into a Roth this year!

Have a Child/Grandchild/Relative or special young person in your life? If they have at least $6500 in income this year, consider giving them a Roth IRA to help jump start their retirement…. the earlier the better of course.

Kids working at your or a relatives business? Consider funding a Roth with their income… maybe a well earned bonus goes directly into the Roth?

Make sure the young earner does not over save in their Retirement plans – Max into a 401k is $22,500 this year and that includes a Roth contribution… so do not overfund.

Watch the top end of annual earnings as well… from our Tax Page Right here on our Blog

Lastly…the Sizzle —

Just one $6500 Roth for a 15 year old, growing at 8% annually, will be worth a whopping $300k+ at age 65 … do that three times to get to a million… and that is tax free withdrawals at retirement! NICE!

Have a Great “Give a Kid Roth” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

529 to Roth Possible New Rule from Secure Act 2.0 … Long weekend … Friday the 13th!

While researching the afore mentioned Secure Act 2.0 about a week ago… recall this 4200 page monster was released on December 27th, 2022 …

Some talk in the beast is about unused 529’s being able to roll over into a Roth….

This caught the eye/ear and a note was made. A possible use of this came up this week, so further research is needed as there were a ton of hurdles (like a 15 year waiting period, just to name one) to allow this transaction AND we will likely have updates during the year to clarify this possibility.

With a use already a possibility, we wanted to bring this to your attention and let you know we will be doing further research for clarity! yay

Long Weekend

Monday is a Holiday in honor of Martin Luther King day, as such banks, government offices and our office will be closed as well.

Today is a Friday the 13th spooky … enjoy your day and the weekend…talk next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Fourth Quarter 2022 Review, Bill(s), Rates, Bills and Sunshine – Private Policy, Annual Offerings

Dear Investor:

Bill(s)

On December 20th, 2019 the Secure Act was singed into law. On December 27th , 2022 the Secure Act 2.0, a bill long in the works and a mere 4200 pages long was signed into law. The most important item in the financial world (there were a multitude of areas addressed) as the second upping of RMD’s to age 73. Look for more information soon from us.

Rates

In December the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell raised rates to over 4% after starting the year at zero.  As mentioned in our Q1 2023 Newsletter article (Maybe a Tiger can change Stripes0, on a percentage basis this would be a possible once in a lifetime speedy move.  This may also be a return to a normal interest rate policy (hopefully) with no intention of going to the zero boundary again.  See Next point.

Bills

Not getting too wordie, but US citizens “bills” or the increase in them in the form of food, travel, energy, housing just to name a few are what is creating the opportunity of the afore mentioned speed of rates or rate increases. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) measurements continue to hold at much loftier levels than anyone thought possible (somewhat due to lagging indicators) and are allowing rates to rise and likely stay higher for longer.  This is a good thing for our safe assets aka Fixed Income/Bonds thankfully as most of the headwinds are likely behind us, again see Q1 2023 Newsletter lead article and associate graphs.

Sunshine

Last year at this time we were reviewing items such as “Anatomy of a Slowdown” and “The R” Word – Recession.

Today, from our unique “Personal Reflections” portion of our Q1 2023 Newsletter :

“Future is better

Just as we pointed out over a year ago what a slowdown looks like and that it might occur, we are now ready to point out later on this year it’s very likely the clouds of higher interest rates and two feet on the economic brakes by Powell are likely to clear.”

This is also the time we attach our Private Policy Statement for the year, along with our opportunity to offer our latest ADV filings and Client Relationship Summary (Form CRS); Requests for review will be accepted via phone, mail or email, and mailed immediately upon request.

Happy Turn of the Calendar, and Best Wishes for the Start of a New Year!

Sincerely,

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Enclosure (2022 Report)

J.K. Financial, Inc.

PRIVACY POLICY NOTICE

Our Promise to You

As a client of J.K. Financial, Inc., you share both personal and financial information with us.  Your privacy is important to us, and we are dedicated to safeguarding your personal and financial information. 

Information Provided by Clients 

In the normal course of doing business, we typically obtain the following non-public personal information about our clients: 

  • Personal information regarding our clients’ identity such as name, address and social security number;
  • Information regarding securities transactions effected by us; and
  • Client financial information such as net-worth, assets, income, bank account information and account balances.

How We Manage and Protect Your Personal Information

We do not sell information about current or former clients to third parties, nor is it our practice to disclose such information to third parties unless requested to do so by a client or client representative or, if necessary, in order to process a transaction, service an account or as permitted by law

In order to protect your personal information, we maintain physical, electronic and procedural safeguards to protect your personal information.  Our Privacy Policy restricts the use of client information and requires that it be held in strict confidence.

Client Notifications

We are required by law to annually provide a notice describing our privacy policy.  In addition, we will inform you promptly if there are changes to our policy. 

Please do not hesitate to contact us with questions about this notice.

December 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – Secure Act 2.0 – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our December 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

December 2022 Video


YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Secure Act 2.0 – Passed on 12-27-22 Quietly …. Shhhhh we are working through the details

On December 27, 2022 a HUGE bill … over 4000 pages, was passed…. while not sweeping in our neck of the woods, there is one main adjustment….

RMD – Required Minimum Distributions are pushed out again to age 73! Not Kidding!

Capital Market Comments

Rate Increase – Fed Raised rates for the Holidays

In December the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell raised rates, but only by .50% … but it was a raise…

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of January – Happy 2023!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Q1 2023 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Estate Tax Law change Heads Up …. Higher Rates for Longer from Stubborn Lagging CPI Inputs … Personal Reflection … By John Kvale CFA, CFP …

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q1 2023 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

Q1 2023 Newsletter

(YouTube)

Personal Reflections –

Entering the 36 year in the Financial and Capital Markets world, a lesson was learned this year (see below) we want to thank everyone for their well wishes, patience and confidence as we went through a unique “Changing of the Tiger Stripes” event this year!

Higher Rates – Longer – CPI Stubbornly High

CPI Causes Tiger Stripes to Change?

Very Lagging Rent and Shelter Numbers keep pushing CPI

Estate Tax Laws Set to Change – Heads Up

At the end of 2025, putting January 1, 2026 into play, without any tax law adjustments the Estate Tax level will adjust back down to somewhere between a $7 to $8 million or $14 to $16 million for couples level. 

While Estate Tax is not a huge revenue earner for the IRS, in our opinion Estate tax is in purpose is to affect the very largest of the states think  $100 million and up. 

Additionally the IRS is having trouble completing regular federal tax returns, by some estimates some 15 to 20 thousand taxpayers are still waiting on their regular federal returns to be blessed by the IRS from 2020 to present.  Lowering the Estate Tax level to an extreme low, while may sound good in the headlines, impracticality, it will likely create a huge bottleneck and more trouble than money earned. 

Bottom Line – We are on this in advance!

Happy New Years and a Great Start to 2023!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com